Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[oneniltothearsenal]

I don't see how managing to occupy more land, destroy ukrainian hope of recovering it, managing to maintain a normal economy and showing the west as weak and unreliable is not a win for russia. Sure it cost them a lot but it's still a win.

Russia's economy is anything but normal. Inflation rose very high in 2022 and while its dropped off, its still higher in Russia than Western economies. They also have very high interest rates which is and will continue to be problematic for Russia. They've shifted to a war time focus on economy which generally provides a short-term boost which has helped them but the opportunity cost is that they aren't actually developing a strong foundation. IIRC Russia is now spending about 8% of their GDP on military, compared with only about 3% of US GDP and US military innovation is far ahead of Russia and will continue to remain so. Russia will now lag behind on technological innovations and they still depend too much on resource exportation, which has always been a weaknesses of the Russian economy. It's true that pivoting to more trade with China and India has mitigated to some degree the removal of Western trading partners and its also true that a country like Germany became too dependent on Russia and was hurt as well. However, they are now very dependent on China in a lot of ways which is another long term weakness. Overall, this is definitely not "normal" and it's not sustainable. Part of what has helped Russia compensate short term is them dipping into their "rainy day" fund which is now a little under half what it was before the war. There are going to be long term repercussions that will see Russia fall further behind the leading economies on diversity and innovation and that's not going to help them.

No doubt some media outlets might have hyped up the effects of sanctions too much but to say Russia's economy is doing better than before or to say sanctions have "backfired" (as some media outlets have said) is also going too far the other direction. I don't think any economists actually believed that Russia's economy would collapse or anything like that.

 

[maniak]

Like I said, it costs money to get new troops recruited, trained, and deployed. They don't suddenly emerge out of thin air in the absence of resources and logistics to move them through the process. The same money the US sends for weapons is also used for Ukrainian troops, just as it is for paying the salaries of government officials and existing soldiers.

Yeah you keep saying something that contradicts the ukranians on the ground. You'll forgive me if I take their words over yours.

 

[maniak]

Well if we weigh matters honestly it is hard to see a Russian win following the invasion and quite easy to see how NATO will be stronger in the middle to long term future.

Lets make the obvious point that Finland and Sweden have joined NATO because of the invasion and Poland has massively increased its defence spending as have other eastern European countries. Is that a win for Russia?

They have used about 2/3 of the Soviet arms stored in terms of tanks armored fighting vehicles and long range missiles. They will never replace them. Not a win there either.

1/3 of the Black Sea fleet is destroyed and there naval base at Sevastopol has been abandoned for operations. That's not a win either.

Their air force has struggled with combined operations has lost huge numbers of planes and helicopters. It still can't dominate the battle field areas for overflight and target acquisition purposes. No win there.

The count is what 450000 dead or wounded with no end in sight two years into a two week special operation.

That is not winning in my opinion.

You can still win after losing a lot. Russians know all about that.

If at the end putin can claim he got land and resources, he got this despite western support and points out the west was all talk about support ukraine to the end, then he will have won in the eyes of most of the world.

Western leaders saying "well he didn't take ALL of ukraine" will sound weak as shit.

 

[maniak]

Russia's economy is anything but normal. Inflation rose very high in 2022 and while its dropped off, its still higher in Russia than Western economies. They also have very high interest rates which is and will continue to be problematic for Russia. They've shifted to a war time focus on economy which generally provides a short-term boost which has helped them but the opportunity cost is that they aren't actually developing a strong foundation. IIRC Russia is now spending about 8% of their GDP on military, compared with only about 3% of US GDP and US military innovation is far ahead of Russia and will continue to remain so. Russia will now lag behind on technological innovations and they still depend too much on resource exportation, which has always been a weaknesses of the Russian economy. It's true that pivoting to more trade with China and India has mitigated to some degree the removal of Western trading partners and its also true that a country like Germany became too dependent on Russia and was hurt as well. However, they are now very dependent on China in a lot of ways which is another long term weakness. Overall, this is definitely not "normal" and it's not sustainable. Part of what has helped Russia compensate short term is them dipping into their "rainy day" fund which is now a little under half what it was before the war. There are going to be long term repercussions that will see Russia fall further behind the leading economies on diversity and innovation and that's not going to help them.

No doubt some media outlets might have hyped up the effects of sanctions too much but to say Russia's economy is doing better than before or to say sanctions have "backfired" (as some media outlets have said) is also going too far the other direction. I don't think any economists actually believed that Russia's economy would collapse or anything like that.

I'm no economist, but for a country at war that the media kept saying would be crippled by sanctions, all the articles I read lately seem to say they're doing pretty ok given the circumstances.

Once the war ends, everyone will flock to trade again more openly.

 

[Raoul]

Yeah you keep saying something that contradicts the ukranians on the ground. You'll forgive me if I take their words over yours.

What I'm saying isn't contradictory to some Ukrainians claiming they are lacking in soldiers. It simply reinforces the reality that it takes money, weapons, and training to get troops to the front lines. If the money dries up, then so do Ukrainian resources to recruit new people to fight the war. Fortunately, the money is flowing again, which is good news for the Ukrainian war effort.

 

[maniak]

What I'm saying isn't contradictory to some Ukrainians claiming they are lacking in soldiers. It simply reinforces the reality that it takes money, weapons, and training to get troops to the front lines. If the money dries up, then so do Ukrainian resources to recruit new people to fight the war. Fortunately, the money is flowing again, which is good news for the Ukrainian war effort.

They are saying money alone won't solve the problem, so it is contradictory.

 

[Raoul]

They are saying money alone won't solve the problem, so it is contradictory.

I agree that money alone can't solve the problem, but it plays a massive role in the equation. Therefore its not contradictory, its complimentary.

 

[VorZakone]

I believe in self determination and that if the people of Crimea and Donbas prefer to be part of Russia, backed by legitimate referendums, the world order created in 2008 in Kosovo needs to accept that

How does this square with Putin annexing Kherson & Zaporizhia? Why take those regions? Aside from the argument that there was no consistent trend in polling up to 2014 that suggested a majority of Donbas residents actually wanted to secede from Ukraine and join Russia. The fact that there was pro-Russian sentiment is not the same as a genuine desire to secede. Pro-Russian sentiment there had strong economic characteristics, not necessarily secessional. But then 2014 happened and the Russians inserted themselves into the region through various ways (Girkin being one of them).

I think Crimea is a different story as it did seem there was a much more genuine desire there to be autonomous from Ukraine even before the "little green men" went in.

 

[Nani Nana]

How does this square with Putin annexing Kherson & Zaporizhia? Why take those regions? Aside from the argument that there was no consistent trend in polling up to 2014 that suggested a majority of Donbas residents actually wanted to secede from Ukraine and join Russia. The fact that there was pro-Russian sentiment is not the same as a genuine desire to secede. Pro-Russian sentiment there had strong economic characteristics, not necessarily secessional. But then 2014 happened and the Russians inserted themselves into the region through various ways (Girkin being one of them).

I think Crimea is a different story as it did seem there was a much more genuine desire there to be autonomous from Ukraine even before the "little green men" went in.

I agree with that on the whole.

As for Kherson and Zaporizhia, I do not have an answer but once negotiations start, Putin will certainly be readier to drop them than the Donbas.

 

[VorZakone]

Anyone know when the F-16's could be used for combat operations?

 

[NicolaSacco]

Anyone know when the F-16's could be used for combat operations?

I’ve read later in the summer, but I really struggle to have faith in that prediction.

 

[the hea]

Anyone know when the F-16's could be used for combat operations?

Mette Fredriksen, the Danish prime minister mentioned during a press conference a couple of days ago that the Danish f-16s will be in the sky over Ukraine within the next few months, so probably June or July.

 

[Raoul]

Mette Fredriksen, the Danish prime minister mentioned during a press conference a couple of days ago that the Danish f-16s will be in the sky over Ukraine within the next few months, so probably June or July.

It will be interesting see how they're used given the amount of Russian air defenses in the area.

 

[NotThatSoph]

Is this some out of context quote, or what's going on? Ukraine has attacked Russia inside their borders tons of times. Is he talking about specific ammunition?

 

[africanspur]

Is this some out of context quote, or what's going on? Ukraine has attacked Russia inside their borders tons of times. Is he talking about specific ammunition?

I think he was talking specifically about the use of Western missiles within Russian borders.

 

[the hea]

Is this some out of context quote, or what's going on? Ukraine has attacked Russia inside their borders tons of times. Is he talking about specific ammunition?

He's talking about Western provided weapons, a lot of countries don't want their weapons used within Russian borders. Ukraine has mainly used domestically produced drones for the attacks inside Russia.

 

[NotThatSoph]

I think he was talking specifically about the use of Western missiles within Russian borders.

He's talking about Western provided weapons, a lot of countries don't want their weapons used within Russian borders. Ukraine has mainly used domestically produced drones for the attacks inside Russia.

Alright, that makes more sense.

 

[oneniltothearsenal]

I'm no economist, but for a country at war that the media kept saying would be crippled by sanctions, all the articles I read lately seem to say they're doing pretty ok given the circumstances.

Once the war ends, everyone will flock to trade again more openly.

It sounds like you're basing your opinion on some shallow media articles rather than an in depth analysis of what's actually going if you took terms like "crippled" seriously which no economists I am aware of ever used, maybe some politicians for hype. No one serious expected sanctions to cripple anything, but they have narrowed a lot of choices for Russia.

I'd also disagree that after the war, everyone will flock to trade again. Russia can't just recover from how it's repositioned its economy long term. As I said, it's too dependent on resource expectation, sacrificed innovation for the short term boost of 8% of GDP dedicated to military that's going to be hard to shift back to an equivalent peacetime economy and I doubt the sanctions will be removed when the war ends which will limit their trade.

 

[VorZakone]

Seems like the sanctions aren't even being enforced to the fullest. Reasons may vary per country.

 

[Real Name]

Now, sure, my prediction is that they will.

I hope they don't to be clear, in case anyone is misinterpreting my posts and some kind of russia support.

Depending on what you regard as a Russian win but I get your point of view.

 

[Real Name]

One thing guaranteed in this life, every several pages some Serbian poster will say ‘if Kosovo can be independent, inject unrelated nonsense after that’.

For a lot of them war started in 1995 or even later.

 

[Nani Nana]

It sounds like you're basing your opinion on some shallow media articles rather than an in depth analysis of what's actually going if you took terms like "crippled" seriously which no economists I am aware of ever used, maybe some politicians for hype. No one serious expected sanctions to cripple anything, but they have narrowed a lot of choices for Russia.

I'd also disagree that after the war, everyone will flock to trade again. Russia can't just recover from how it's repositioned its economy long term. As I said, it's too dependent on resource expectation, sacrificed innovation for the short term boost of 8% of GDP dedicated to military that's going to be hard to shift back to an equivalent peacetime economy and I doubt the sanctions will be removed when the war ends which will limit their trade.

What is this supposed to mean? A lot of innovations come from the military and are then translated into civilian use

 

[stefan92]

What is this supposed to mean? A lot of innovations come from the military and are then translated into civilian use

Yes but it has to be a sustainable amount of investment into the military because otherwise it cripples the rest of your economy and/or state finances. It's what ended the cold war - the US/NATO could afford their investment into the military, the SU couldn't keep up with their peaceful economy, had to invest a growing share into the military to keep up with the West and therefore tumbled into economical collapse.

 

[Nani Nana]

Yes but it has to be a sustainable amount of investment into the military because otherwise it cripples the rest of your economy and/or state finances. It's what ended the cold war - the US/NATO could afford their investment into the military, the SU couldn't keep up with their peaceful economy, had to invest a growing share into the military to keep up with the West and therefore tumbled into economical collapse.

Interesting! This report from last month ranks Russia's defense spending at just 5.9% of GDP. Not sure where the 8% figure hails from?

 

[nimic]

Interesting! This report from last month ranks Russia's defense spending at just 5.9% of GDP. Not sure where the 8% figure hails from?

5.9% would be for the end of 2023. I don't know where the 8% figure is from, but there's a missing 4-5 months where it could fit in.

 

[stefan92]

Interesting! This report from last month ranks Russia's defense spending at just 5.9% of GDP. Not sure where the 8% figure hails from?

I don't know that either and my comment was more general that there is a limit for how much makes sense for the progress of a country - which I also don't know in numbers but obviously it exists

 

[DT12]

Seems like the sanctions aren't even being enforced to the fullest. Reasons may vary per country.

It's not only goods. Kyrgyzstan has become central to most sanctions evasion. Back in December when Biden authorised secondary sanctions on Chinese banks, some payments from our defence companies weren't going through to China. They weren't being rejected, they were just being put on a kind of hold while Chinese banks were a bit spooked about accepting payment and needed time to assess the risk. Now, so much of Russian finance to China goes via Krygyz banks. Even my wife's company (German-owned), which has nothing to do with defence, has opened accounts in Kyrgyzstan to send payments to European companies and banks; the very same companies and banks which have announcements on their websites about how much they "condemn Russia's brutal war of aggression". As those charts you've posted show, everyone's doing it and everyone knows it's going on. It's just one more bit of hypocritical bullshit in a war that's been full of it.

 

[oneniltothearsenal]

5.9% would be for the end of 2023. I don't know where the 8% figure is from, but there's a missing 4-5 months where it could fit in.

Interesting! This report from last month ranks Russia's defense spending at just 5.9% of GDP. Not sure where the 8% figure hails from?

Yeah I meant 6% sorry for not checking. My point still stands though, as that money is going to just churning out more of what they have/lost.

 

[Hanks]

I live in Poland in a city with the most number of Ukrainian refugees and immigrants and overall interact a lot with Ukrainians due to nature of my work.
Over the past few months, I've had several discussions about the war with them, men or women and here are my most honest observations from what I've been told:

- Almost none of them believes Ukraine can get their territory back. All they talk about is ending the war before they lose even more men and territory. I had a haircut today and my hairdresser, Daria from Kherson, was saying how her family has moved to Poland too. She said, "I've accepted that we're never going back. Our home is permanently gone, so we have to make new home here."

- The mood among the men is even more intense, especially after the recent consular services ban. I have a good friend of 4 years, here, he's been living in Poland since 2015. He's furious. He says: "I absolutely hate the Russian regime, but what our gov't is doing is crazy. Look at the size of Russia! How can we expect to beat them as our population shrinks further and further and we don't have anywhere near as many resources as we do. Everyday more and more people die. For what? For reaching the same conclusion or worse than can be reached right now? And now it's focusing on people like me and hundreds of thousand more Ukrainian men who've been living here for years. Long before the war!? Only a very deluded person (Zelensky) can believe we can get major territories back, let alone Crimea. Everyday I see on Telegram videos of random bystander men being kidnapped at bus stations or grocery stores to enlist and go to the front-line. It's crazy !! How are these soldiers supposed to have motivation to fight?

- There is another group that genuinely now believe Zelensky has always been a Russian asset. my Ex is from Odessa (she lives here in Poland) and she was saying that in Odessan cycles now there is genuine rumours that Zelensky has always been an FSB asset. How he was so unprepared for the invasion, he didn't heed to warnings of Western Intelligence services, how he denied advise of NATO generals regarding the failed counter-offensive effort, how he's let major corruption run rampant in the personnel and how, this part very sad: "He's selling our future.There is no winning for us in this war. Everyday it continues, we'll lose more. We're left with an unpayable debt, our most fertile lands sold to American corporations, and our bravest and most capable generation of men either dead or on the run who'll never come back to Ukraine due to fear of being prosecuted escaping draft. This consular services ban just ensure more and more Ukrainians will never return home even after it's over.

No one wants to die. That's what I gather from my conversations with lots of Ukrainian men here. It's all nice for us to say: "Western weapons & strategy + Ukrainian manpower" is the formula to victory, but anyone who wanted to genuinely join the war effort and go to the front-lines risking their lives, has already done that. That's why the manpower debate is so vital. Also, earlier in the war, very few Ukrainians were talking about un-payable national debt and selling best lands to American corporations, but now it's becoming a lot more of a talking point. Also, Zelensky firing Zaluzhny seems to have lost him lots of support, since Zaluzhny appears to be the more popular of the two now.


It's a really dire and lose-lose situaiton to be honest. I don't know what the solution is, but the real ordinary people are hurting very bad. Be it if they are in Ukraine or outside of it. and they want an end to it much sooner than later.

 

[DT12]

Tell those Russian bots posing as Ukrainians to stop promulgating Russian propaganda.

 

[maniak]

- The mood among the men is even more intense, especially after the recent consular services ban. I have a good friend of 4 years, here, he's been living in Poland since 2015. He's furious. He says: "I absolutely hate the Russian regime, but what our gov't is doing is crazy. Look at the size of Russia! How can we expect to beat them as our population shrinks further and further and we don't have anywhere near as many resources as we do. Everyday more and more people die. For what? For reaching the same conclusion or worse than can be reached right now? And now it's focusing on people like me and hundreds of thousand more Ukrainian men who've been living here for years. Long before the war!? Only a very deluded person (Zelensky) can believe we can get major territories back, let alone Crimea. Everyday I see on Telegram videos of random bystander men being kidnapped at bus stations or grocery stores to enlist and go to the front-line. It's crazy !! How are these soldiers supposed to have motivation to fight?

You should put your mate in contact with Raoul, he'll explain there's nothing to worry as there's no manpower shortage.

 

[DT12]

More seriously that's a welcome perspective that, had I written it, would have drawn the rabid hyenas but you may get away with it. One point though: there's no way Zelenskiy is a Russian asset. There's no clandestine mystery to the guy. He's a generally well-intentioned guy who's a bit of an idiot, has been used by Western vultures, and is now starting to realise he's been led down the garden path and is massively out of his depth.

 

[UpWithRivers]

I live in Poland in a city with the most number of Ukrainian refugees and immigrants and overall interact a lot with Ukrainians due to nature of my work.
Over the past few months, I've had several discussions about the war with them, men or women and here are my most honest observations from what I've been told:

- Almost none of them believes Ukraine can get their territory back. All they talk about is ending the war before they lose even more men and territory. I had a haircut today and my hairdresser, Daria from Kherson, was saying how her family has moved to Poland too. She said, "I've accepted that we're never going back. Our home is permanently gone, so we have to make new home here."

- The mood among the men is even more intense, especially after the recent consular services ban. I have a good friend of 4 years, here, he's been living in Poland since 2015. He's furious. He says: "I absolutely hate the Russian regime, but what our gov't is doing is crazy. Look at the size of Russia! How can we expect to beat them as our population shrinks further and further and we don't have anywhere near as many resources as we do. Everyday more and more people die. For what? For reaching the same conclusion or worse than can be reached right now? And now it's focusing on people like me and hundreds of thousand more Ukrainian men who've been living here for years. Long before the war!? Only a very deluded person (Zelensky) can believe we can get major territories back, let alone Crimea. Everyday I see on Telegram videos of random bystander men being kidnapped at bus stations or grocery stores to enlist and go to the front-line. It's crazy !! How are these soldiers supposed to have motivation to fight?

- There is another group that genuinely now believe Zelensky has always been a Russian asset. my Ex is from Odessa (she lives here in Poland) and she was saying that in Odessan cycles now there is genuine rumours that Zelensky has always been an FSB asset. How he was so unprepared for the invasion, he didn't heed to warnings of Western Intelligence services, how he denied advise of NATO generals regarding the failed counter-offensive effort, how he's let major corruption run rampant in the personnel and how, this part very sad: "He's selling our future.There is no winning for us in this war. Everyday it continues, we'll lose more. We're left with an unpayable debt, our most fertile lands sold to American corporations, and our bravest and most capable generation of men either dead or on the run who'll never come back to Ukraine due to fear of being prosecuted escaping draft. This consular services ban just ensure more and more Ukrainians will never return home even after it's over.

No one wants to die. That's what I gather from my conversations with lots of Ukrainian men here. It's all nice for us to say: "Western weapons & strategy + Ukrainian manpower" is the formula to victory, but anyone who wanted to genuinely join the war effort and go to the front-lines risking their lives, has already done that. That's why the manpower debate is so vital. Also, earlier in the war, very few Ukrainians were talking about un-payable national debt and selling best lands to American corporations, but now it's becoming a lot more of a talking point. Also, Zelensky firing Zaluzhny seems to have lost him lots of support, since Zaluzhny appears to be the more popular of the two now.


It's a really dire and lose-lose situaiton to be honest. I don't know what the solution is, but the real ordinary people are hurting very bad. Be it if they are in Ukraine or outside of it. and they want an end to it much sooner than later.

Sounds like a bunch of cowards hiding out and bitching. Dont get me wrong I probably would be one of them if it happened to me but just wanting to bend over and take it up the arse from the Russians is a bit much.

 

[Raoul]

I live in Poland in a city with the most number of Ukrainian refugees and immigrants and overall interact a lot with Ukrainians due to nature of my work.
Over the past few months, I've had several discussions about the war with them, men or women and here are my most honest observations from what I've been told:

- Almost none of them believes Ukraine can get their territory back. All they talk about is ending the war before they lose even more men and territory. I had a haircut today and my hairdresser, Daria from Kherson, was saying how her family has moved to Poland too. She said, "I've accepted that we're never going back. Our home is permanently gone, so we have to make new home here."

- The mood among the men is even more intense, especially after the recent consular services ban. I have a good friend of 4 years, here, he's been living in Poland since 2015. He's furious. He says: "I absolutely hate the Russian regime, but what our gov't is doing is crazy. Look at the size of Russia! How can we expect to beat them as our population shrinks further and further and we don't have anywhere near as many resources as we do. Everyday more and more people die. For what? For reaching the same conclusion or worse than can be reached right now? And now it's focusing on people like me and hundreds of thousand more Ukrainian men who've been living here for years. Long before the war!? Only a very deluded person (Zelensky) can believe we can get major territories back, let alone Crimea. Everyday I see on Telegram videos of random bystander men being kidnapped at bus stations or grocery stores to enlist and go to the front-line. It's crazy !! How are these soldiers supposed to have motivation to fight?

- There is another group that genuinely now believe Zelensky has always been a Russian asset. my Ex is from Odessa (she lives here in Poland) and she was saying that in Odessan cycles now there is genuine rumours that Zelensky has always been an FSB asset. How he was so unprepared for the invasion, he didn't heed to warnings of Western Intelligence services, how he denied advise of NATO generals regarding the failed counter-offensive effort, how he's let major corruption run rampant in the personnel and how, this part very sad: "He's selling our future.There is no winning for us in this war. Everyday it continues, we'll lose more. We're left with an unpayable debt, our most fertile lands sold to American corporations, and our bravest and most capable generation of men either dead or on the run who'll never come back to Ukraine due to fear of being prosecuted escaping draft. This consular services ban just ensure more and more Ukrainians will never return home even after it's over.

No one wants to die. That's what I gather from my conversations with lots of Ukrainian men here. It's all nice for us to say: "Western weapons & strategy + Ukrainian manpower" is the formula to victory, but anyone who wanted to genuinely join the war effort and go to the front-lines risking their lives, has already done that. That's why the manpower debate is so vital. Also, earlier in the war, very few Ukrainians were talking about un-payable national debt and selling best lands to American corporations, but now it's becoming a lot more of a talking point. Also, Zelensky firing Zaluzhny seems to have lost him lots of support, since Zaluzhny appears to be the more popular of the two now.


It's a really dire and lose-lose situaiton to be honest. I don't know what the solution is, but the real ordinary people are hurting very bad. Be it if they are in Ukraine or outside of it. and they want an end to it much sooner than later.

I know a fair number of Ukrainians who came over to the states as well and their views are generally informed by the fact that their new lives in the West are preferable to what they had in Ukraine pre-invasion. Many of them would've chosen to live in the US anyway irrespective of what Putin did. They do however want to go back to visit once the war is over.

 

[maniak]

Sounds like a bunch of cowards hiding out and bitching. Dont get me wrong I probably would be one of them if it happened to me but just wanting to bend over and take it up the arse from the Russians is a bit much.

 

[Raoul]

Sounds like a bunch of cowards hiding out and bitching. Dont get me wrong I probably would be one of them if it happened to me but just wanting to bend over and take it up the arse from the Russians is a bit much.

If they think its a permanently frozen conflict then their fatalism would be understandable. Even though they have no idea what is going to transpire in the coming years.

 

[4bars]

Sounds like a bunch of cowards hiding out and bitching. Dont get me wrong I probably would be one of them if it happened to me but just wanting to bend over and take it up the arse from the Russians is a bit much.

Cowards, bitching, wanting to bent over to russians... wow

 

[VorZakone]

Alright, that makes more sense.

To add to this, it seems Blinken might have just referred to the strikes in Russia with Ukraine's domestically produced weapons. Not clear yet that Ukraine is allowed to use US weapons on Russian territory.

 

[VorZakone]

Gazprom’s Declining Fortunes Spell Trouble for Moscow

And just this month, Gazprom posted a massive $6.8 billion loss for 2023, the first since 1999.

Gazprom’s woes are very likely setting off alarm bells in Moscow: With no good options for the company to revive flagging gas sales, its losses could weigh on Russia’s ability to finance the war in Ukraine. This is especially ironic given the fact that EU sanctions do not target Russian gas exports; the damage to the Kremlin and its war effort is entirely self-inflicted.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/1...budget-war-economy-russia-putin-europe-china/

 

[VorZakone]

He doesn't seem to say why it would get better. But interesting to note that his sources say that Ukraine has regressed to fighting like a Soviet military, and "a small Soviet military won't beat a large Soviet military".