Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Bold to assume Medvedev has ever been anything more than a lapdog.

Of course he was and is. But the question remains. Did he hide his true nature when he was president or is he acting now?



I can see it, when sometime in the future the war ends, Russia will present all those numbers and say their SMO was a success. In the end. they'll have destroyed more western equipment that was built and killed more Ukrainians than there were ever in service. That will be Putin's story to wriggle out of it when he needs to. "The western threat to Russia is done, we destroyed everything, we're safe and now we can leave."

edit: But at least they stopped reporting of destroyed HIMARS. Maybe because they realized they already had a bigger number than US provided :lol:
 
Of course he was and is. But the question remains. Did he hide his true nature when he was president or is he acting now?



I can see it, when sometime in the future the war ends, Russia will present all those numbers and say their SMO was a success. In the end. they'll have destroyed more western equipment that was built and killed more Ukrainians than there were ever in service. That will be Putin's story to wriggle out of it when he needs to. "The western threat to Russia is done, we destroyed everything, we're safe and now we can leave."

edit: But at least they stopped reporting of destroyed HIMARS. Maybe because they realized they already had a bigger number than US provided :lol:

The absurd numbers reported about everything as been an ongoing meme from the very start already. They are just going with it.
 
I think this is a very difficult thing to answer generally, which is why the research of sanctions is pretty mixed.

Typically you have two types of sanctions. Direct military sanctions, aiming to restrict the availability and/or production of weapons, and various types of economic sanctions, aiming to lower GDP. By lowering GDP you also lower the tax base, meaning the government has less money available to fund the war. Whether or not this actually impacts the funding on the war depends on how motivated the state is to wage war, and on how tight a grip it has on its populace. Unless the sanctions literally collapse the economy, which is basically impossible for a large country, it can simply choose to spend less money on non-war things or increase income by new/higher taxes, even money printing in the short term. The more authoritarian the state is, the less effective sanctions should be in changing behaviour.

Another problem is that the cost of sanctions is typically already taken into account by the country on the receiving end, and therefore it's not going to change behaviour. The ways this can end up not being true is if, 1. the sanctions are not announced in advance (which would be a failure on the part of the countries implementing the sanctions), announced but not taken as a credible threat (another failure), or both announced and taken as credible, but that the ones on the receiving end misjudge how costly the sanctions will actually be (possible).

As far as I know, most of the pro sanction research places a lot of weight on the deterrence factor: that the main way sanctions work is by preventing things from happening in the first place, not stopping things that have already started. This means that when sanctions have to actually be implemented, then they have already mostly failed. You still have to do it, because if not then you lose credibility and therefore the effectiveness of future deterrence.
Great summary. I do think that sanctions become mostly for moral purposes and hardly do anything to help the general population turn against their government. Obviously, again, that didn't mean it didn't restrict those regimes. It just doesn't help with changing their behavior, as you said. I don't really think a lot of people from the 'West' understand much about the impact of suffering the general population. In turn, the crippled population can't do anything about their government.

Sanctions are going to make the "West" less influential later on if they are not careful with applying them to everything in general when the effect of them are way less than desirable.
 
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Bold to assume Medvedev has ever been anything more than a lapdog.
There were many reports about him considering to stay in power before Putin broke him and forced the reverse castling. He probably never had it in him to fully challenge Putin but it would've been an interesting move. A shame that we'll probably never know what had really happened back then.
 
What a drunk bitch. How could that guy even be president?



Source is in the thread, from Politico Europe.


Why does he look like all of David Cameron, George Osborne and Nigel Garage simultaneously? Nightmare fuel.
 
BEIJING (AP) — China imposed restrictions Monday on exports of long-range civilian drones, citing Russia’s war in Ukraine and concern that drones might be converted to military use.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s government is friendly with Moscow but says it is neutral in the 17-month-old war. It has been stung by reports that both sides might be using Chinese-made drones for reconnaissance and possibly attacks.

Export controls will take effect Tuesday to prevent use of drones for “non-peaceful purposes,” the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement. It said some drone exports still will be allowed.
https://apnews.com/article/china-ukraine-russia-drone-export-dji-e6694b3209b4d8a93fd76cf29bd8a056
 
Hungarians not making friends online it seems. Good to see some pushback from regional people.

 
I think it's more about showing the population that their government isn't keeping them safe in all of this.
The UA could have sent the drone(s) on any other building or even more buildings in that district for the same purpose. But to hit the same building twice, there has to be a very particular reason.
 
The UA could have sent the drone(s) on any other building or even more buildings in that district for the same purpose. But to hit the same building twice, there has to be a very particular reason.
I wasn't aware of that. Interesting indeed.
 


Ukraine should just blow up the gas pipelines and say it was Russian missiles targeting their energy infrastructure or whatever. I know they'd lose the money they get for transit the gas, but long term it should be better for them to deprive Russia from gas income, no? Without the Ukrainian pipelines and the Nordstream, I think only one Russian pipeline would be functional through Poland.
 
I don't get why this guy thinks OPEC should 'bring down oil prices'. Their job is to keep prices as high as they can for the benefit of their members.

If Ukraine and their allies want to harm Russian exports they need to persuade other nations not to buy them.
Also they are having to sell at a vastly discounted rate - I saw earlier this year India was getting a ~40% discount across a few reputable outlets, China is also importing record levels so whilst it's true they are making money from their natural resources still, it is way below where they would want it to be. BI article below from today.

Russia's Economy Is Booming, but This Could All Come Crashing Soon (businessinsider.com)
 
More battlefield stuff from CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/01/europe/ukraine-neskuchne-question-counteroffensive-intl/index.html

"Ahead of the assault, Ukraine had assessed that only 20 Russians were defending the town. But there were another 200 hidden in various basements, who did not even emerge to use the toilet, apparently using plastic bottles underground to avoiding Ukrainian surveillance drones. As a result, Ukraine thought its force of 70 was overwhelming, but instead met tougher resistance than expected.

The fact that Russian forces fight so persistently for each settlement has raised doubts about claims that Russia’s defensive line is fierce but thin.

The recent deployment of Ukraine’s reserves, and talk of a new phase of the counteroffensive can only boost morale so far. “We feel support, but we are very very tired,” Krivbas said.

A solider from the AREY forces, call sign Krivbas said “They stand till the death. I don’t understand their motivation. Or what they are fighting for.”

His troops showed a small Russian booklet entitled, “Why we fight,” found in captured Russian positions, which provides a warped narrative of the invasion’s causes, saying Russia had been attacked and was left with no choice but to defend itself."
 
You expect the UN to say attacking civilian infrastructure is ok?

I expect them to shut their mouths if they don't have anything useful to say and in this context, condemning Ukrainian attacks is only useful to Putin. No one says attacking civilian infrastructure is a good thing, but Ukraine fights for its right to exist, so maybe they should focus on Russian countless war crimes first.

edit: Also, there were reports that several departments of Russian ministries are located in the building that was hit. It's not like they destroy high-rise apartments and kill civilians so far as Russia does on a weekly basis.
 
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I expect them to shut their mouth if they don't have anything useful to say. No one says attacking civilian infrastructure is a good thing, but Ukraine fights for its right to exist, so maybe they should focus on Russian countless war crimes first.
They have criticized all attacks on civilian infrastructure, it's what's expected from them and it makes sense. Of course it's war, so ukraine will ignore it, but it's literally the most cliche thing the UN can say, I see no reason to be upset about it.
 
You expect the UN to say attacking civilian infrastructure is ok?

I'm not sure its even confirmed any civilian infrastructure has been attacked. Yet a statement like that from the UN is a clear accusation.
 
Western military surgeons haven’t seen such injuries on this scale since World War II, said Dr. Aaron Epstein, head of the Global Surgical and Medical Support Group of former military surgeons who train Ukrainian military medics.

While artillery and missiles were the main causes of amputation early in the conflict, some of the worst casualties now come from mines laid along the 600-mile front line.

 
I ask Ghost how many Russians his team have killed. He says, "There's a confirmed number - 524. Seventy-six of those are mine." The team electronically records every shot through the sights of their rifles.

Not everyone's keeping count, though. Kuzia, the marksman for tonight's mission, says: "It's nothing to be proud of. We're not killing people, we're destroying the enemy."

 
Putin appears to have concluded that the Wagner insurrection wasn’t aimed at him personally—a convenient position, in that it doesn’t force him to take any bold or risky action.

“If they aren’t against me,” Remchukov said, paraphrasing Putin, “we can leave them in place for the solving of important problems.”

 
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They have criticized all attacks on civilian infrastructure, it's what's expected from them and it makes sense. Of course it's war, so ukraine will ignore it, but it's literally the most cliche thing the UN can say, I see no reason to be upset about it.

I think the source of anger towards the UN is the lack of actual repercussions against Russia while within the institution itself. To be very honest, Russia should have been suspended from taking part in activities within the United Nations in the same fashion that an unruly MP is banned from participating in parliament. If Russia feels they don't belong within the United Nations after such a (hypothetical) punishment, they can feel free to leave and then walk into unchartered waters.
 
The bitter fight for Neskuchne ended, Krivbas said, in the school hall, where Russian paratroopers made their last stand before fleeing. He gestures to the trash littering the school floor, and appalling conditions in which the occupiers appeared to live, before battle torched the building.

The wall graffiti is equally bleak: “There is no love.” “God is for Russia.” “Welcome to Mordor.”

It is a nihilism that only amplifies a key question Ukrainian forces have: Why do the Russian troops fight so hard for these tiny settlements? As they push further into occupied territory, the fight remains as
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/01/...hne-question-counteroffensive-intl/index.html
 
They desperate to get NATO involved now or what?




The last decades were too boring for the likes of Putin and Lukashenko. Before they get too old, they want a new exciting cold war, which also strengthens their position inside.