As long as Putin doesn't start carpet bombing Ukrainian cities, the sanctions right now are all the west is willing to do I'm afraid. It's pathetic, but that's the reality. The west isn't willing to completely cut it's economic relations with Russia.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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As long as Putin doesn't start carpet bombing Ukrainian cities, the sanctions right now are all the west is willing to do I'm afraid. It's pathetic, but that's the reality. The west isn't willing to completely cut it's economic relations with Russia.
Good thread.
Poor quality or not, NK has probably tons of shells and small arms ready to sell to Russia. In addition to drones from Iran, this will prolong the war. And the west still makes business in Russia and give them means to purchase those weapons.
There are a lot of countries out there that are not in the "West". As long as countries like NK, China, Iran, and probably even India support Russia with their military equipment manufacturing and give money for gas and oil, Putin's war machines won't stop. The sanctions that the West talked about and implemented would mainly affect on the public, not his war machine. At least not for a long time.
For reference, Burma was under crippling sanctions from the West for about 30 years back in the 1990s, and while the citizens went dirt poor, the leader of the Junta and his cronies got so rich that there were rumors of buying Manchester United (of course, that would never happen) in the 2000s. It did not weaken their capability to kill any dissidents or any rebel groups. The military got bigger and stronger and got a lot of support from the likes of China and Russia. People were so poor that all they thought about was having regular meals but nothing much else (while getting propaganda shit like it was because of the "West").
Using sanctions to put pressure on regimes that don't care about their people (or have complete control of them by any means) does not work well for the intended purpose. It is even harder nowadays than it was decades ago.
It’s a war of attrition at this point between the West and Russia. The difference being that Ukrainian troops are actually capable and fighting for something.
I'm sure Poland will follow international law and treat these migrants in a decent a humane way.
Whether true or not, there'll be another winter to survive for the Ukrainians.
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Not related to the war except that it is about Russia, but holy fecking shit. 
That should land more international support for Russia... not.
That should land more international support for Russia... not.
Not related to the war except that it is about Russia, but holy fecking shit.
That should land more international support for Russia... not.
Why is the guy in the middle in combat kit
Not related to the war except that it is about Russia, but holy fecking shit.
That should land more international support for Russia... not.
I'd be wary of this Igor Sushko fella. Seems to make a lot of unfonded claims. Mind, the story can be true but you'd be better off quoting other sources.
That is Ibrahim Traoré, interim leader of Burkina Faso after the military junta took over in last September. Another show off, typical from those military dictatorships.
Was Burma able to fund an external war though? Rather than simply control its own populace? I agree that sanctions *also* hit normal people, but the idea that Russia’s ability to fund this war is not seriously affected by sanctions is surely just wrong. We’re making it far far more difficult than it could have been. I’m sure that there would be more Russian soldiers, and more Russian military equipment, in Ukraine today, than if there were no sanctions. And therefore more innocent Ukranians dead.
Aah shite not Susko again
I saw this first hand the other day, when he reported on the resignation of the leader of the left-wing Red (Rødt) party in Norway. He got the very basics right, that Bjørnar Moxnes resigned because he was caught stealing (or at least leaving without paying for)
Basically being wrong about stuff which is very easy to get right by doing any amount of research. I am pretty sure he just makes stuff up.
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Not to mention he seems to think Argentina was an attendee of the Russia-Africa summit. He has a long history of just making dumb crap up, hoping it'll get spread around.
You are also spreading fake news. Didn’t Moxnes get caught on CCTV nicking a pair of sunglasses? (i.e. not a watch) Can’t believe I know this. Was on holiday with a friend who lives in Norway last week.
Yeah you're right, it was sunglasses. I think I've heard so much about that case that I am actively trying to forget details now.
Such a crazy story. Of all the things to potentially torpedo your career over. A pair of fecking shades!
Nope. But my reference was to give an example of how even a much smaller country like Burma survived for decades. Well, more like their Junta leaders did and are still living well. Even though Russia is funding this war, they are bigger than Burma, have more resources, and have more 'friends'. And the sanctions seem to be less and less effective nowadays for their intended use after a certain point. So it is hard to expect any significant effect of the Western sanctions on their leader's war machine (which was already pretty much bigger than UA's) when the rest of the world just doesn't exactly follow them through. Of course, that does not mean it didn't hamper Putin's effort at all, but just asking for more 'Western' sanctions would not be the effective solution to bring him down in the near future. But what is the solution, then? Well, I don't have a clue other than bombing their troops out of UA's lands.
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The stealing didn't even torpedo his career, it was the way the story just kept getting worse and worse. It didn't even get that bad, basically he did appear to wilfully steal a pair of sunglasses, that's about it. But his story kept changing, even though he must have known it would come out (it all being on security camera). If he had just come straight out and admitted the whole thing, everyone would have forgotten about it by now.
He basically engineered the rise of his party on his own, so it will be interesting to see what happens there now.
What a drunk bitch. How could that guy even be president?
Source is in the thread, from Politico Europe.
Source is in the thread, from Politico Europe.
Nobody is going to take that threat seriously considering Ukraine has already retaken large parts of territory that were "annexed" by Russia.
And how many times have Russia drawn a line in the sand that has been crossed? Wasn't there a threat that MBTs being delivered to Ukraine was too far and would require Russia to use nukes? F-16s next and now recapturing territory.
Pretty sure they’ve already done that, Dumbitry
I think this is a very difficult thing to answer generally, which is why the research of sanctions is pretty mixed.
Typically you have two types of sanctions. Direct military sanctions, aiming to restrict the availability and/or production of weapons, and various types of economic sanctions, aiming to lower GDP. By lowering GDP you also lower the tax base, meaning the government has less money available to fund the war. Whether or not this actually impacts the funding on the war depends on how motivated the state is to wage war, and on how tight a grip it has on its populace. Unless the sanctions literally collapse the economy, which is basically impossible for a large country, it can simply choose to spend less money on non-war things or increase income by new/higher taxes, even money printing in the short term. The more authoritarian the state is, the less effective sanctions should be in changing behaviour.
Another problem is that the cost of sanctions is typically already taken into account by the country on the receiving end, and therefore it's not going to change behaviour. The ways this can end up not being true is if, 1. the sanctions are not announced in advance (which would be a failure on the part of the countries implementing the sanctions), announced but not taken as a credible threat (another failure), or both announced and taken as credible, but that the ones on the receiving end misjudge how costly the sanctions will actually be (possible).
As far as I know, most of the pro sanction research places a lot of weight on the deterrence factor: that the main way sanctions work is by preventing things from happening in the first place, not stopping things that have already started. This means that when sanctions have to actually be implemented, then they have already mostly failed. You still have to do it, because if not then you lose credibility and therefore the effectiveness of future deterrence.
Another high-rise building. And I bet another shameful silence and inaction from the west.
If you take anything from this, it’s that Russia are publicly stating the UA counteroffensive is worrying them. It might not be moving quickly but for them to essentially resort to threatening to nuke (for what the 800th time?) shows it’s bothering them.
Nevertheless, the Kremlin better try something else because the bluff has been called too many times already. Meanwhile, Medvedev should be treated by world media like the irrelevant drunk clown he is instead being given unncessary attention.
I actually think it’s quite clever if you think of the internal power play. It’s an interesting quote from him because it puts all the pressure on Putin. He’s not just saying we will nuke you if you are successful, he’s saying Putin categorically said he will use a nuke for this reason and so when he doesn’t it will undermine him gravely.
During the time Medvedev was president, my country made some deals with Russia, and he came across as a reasonable guy back then.
About 10-15 years ago now though, so i guess he went off the deep-end at some point, not that i think he was ever a good person, probably not, but at least he wasn't at all unhinged like recent years.
About 10-15 years ago now though, so i guess he went off the deep-end at some point, not that i think he was ever a good person, probably not, but at least he wasn't at all unhinged like recent years.
Maybe he liked being president and doesn't like that he isn't in that position anymore? Would definitely be a reason to start drinking and become unhinged.
The more unhinged he is, the safer he is at home. If he hadn't had a mental breakdown in recent years which made him this way, he acts deliberately as a clown, so Putin will never feel threatened by him. This goes also for Lavrov, who always was more or less reasonable most of the time. Any potential successor backed by the west will fly through an open window while drinking tea at the same time. But if they act like clowns, Putin has nothing to fear from them and they can continue to live their lives with more money than they can spend.
But...if you know that Medvedev is faking it, then wouldn't Putin know this too?
Of course he knows, but why should he care. His only concern is, that there is nobody who can challenge him. As long as they continue to behave in a way that makes it impossible for the west to reason with or even try to back them up, then he is calm. Imagine Lavrov would be reasonable to the west with all his connections he built over the years. Or Medvedev as former president? They would instantly be a threat to Putin und everyone knows what he does with threats. I'm pretty sure they're covering their own asses. Of course they could simply flee out of Russia, but then they'd have to give up their riches, 2nd families and so on and live under threat for the rest of their lives. So it's way safer to choose the unhinged way.
It's not a fact of course, but many journalists suggest likewise, because the turn around of both since the beginning of the war is just strange. So either they hid their true nature before, or they're acting now.
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Bold to assume Medvedev has ever been anything more than a lapdog.