Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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That's a bit surprising in tone.
Lukashenko is the master of press conferences and keeping Putin happy but this might be the first time he's implied anything negative about him. Other than that it is standard NATO = bad stuff.
Yes, no surprises about nato. The Putin comment though is slightly off.
Is it all a set piece, or is Luka showing some gonads? Did he actually save the situation? Seems highly unlikely. He was ready to go last night, but needed another rehearsal.
No one stays in power 30 years without being a cunning cnut and know what to do in certain circumstances. People might laugh at lukashenko and have him as a stupid clown but he has shown how to deal with very complicated situations against his own people showing when to be cruel and push the limits with the EU neigbhours and also walking a thin line in the ukranian war without entering directly in the conflict and not alienating putin.
Putin is used to be a top dog in the geopolitical world and he strongarms people. Lukashenko has not that luxury outside belarus so has probably much experience in a situation that putin was shitting bricks and out of his confort negotiaton area
The simple fact that no one denies that he was involved in saving the situation proves that he must have some influence inside Russia currently.
Putin would never willingly acknowledge that someone else brokered a deal and that he hinself doesn't have the power or ability to do it on his own. That makes him look weak.
And Lukashenko's "there are no heroes here" statement is pure gold.
Putin always tried to keep a hyper-masculine image, he wants to be a heroic figure.
Wagner are made war heroes by Russian propaganda, this undermines that.
Lukashenko always played the simple man of the people. He never before even tried to make himself an heroic figure and therefore is the only one not losing status due to such a statement.
Lukashenko for the foreseeable future between Putin and Prigozhin:
After years of humiliation, he definetly enjoys the unexpected status he gained as a mediator on a crisis, Putin could not solve on his own. But now he must be careful. He promised Prigozhin and his Wagners safety, maybe prematurely without thinking it through what Putin would think of it. On the other hand, he is still dependent on Putin. Without him, he becomes ex-dictator in exile faster than Prigozhin would need to reach Moscow. So he must not overreach and he needs to behave in a way, so Putin continues to trust him. And because Prigozhin is in Lukashenko's domain now, any provocation towards Russia and Moscow, Putin could assume Lukashenko's participation in it. I believe this "relationship" between those 3 will keep on giving.
After years of humiliation, he definetly enjoys the unexpected status he gained as a mediator on a crisis, Putin could not solve on his own. But now he must be careful. He promised Prigozhin and his Wagners safety, maybe prematurely without thinking it through what Putin would think of it. On the other hand, he is still dependent on Putin. Without him, he becomes ex-dictator in exile faster than Prigozhin would need to reach Moscow. So he must not overreach and he needs to behave in a way, so Putin continues to trust him. And because Prigozhin is in Lukashenko's domain now, any provocation towards Russia and Moscow, Putin could assume Lukashenko's participation in it. I believe this "relationship" between those 3 will keep on giving.
Et tu Aleksandr
Surely there are political games going on behind the scenes. This has been a disaster from day one so I have no doubt that powerful people in eth security services have positioned themselves to benefit from this. Who knew of Putin before he was swept to power by the elite who backed him?
The FSB may have been happy to apply pressure to Wagner to get them to back down, but that doesn't mean they support Putin. There'll be games within games going on.
In my opinion this is all headed where a lot of people thought it would head when the original invasion failed. How can he survive long term?
Putin needs a success and he needs it sooner rather than later. But he must have handed out many favours throughout the years and can probably call them in now. Not to mention that the Chinese would probably prefer him to some unknown quantity backed by the FSB.
Its a pity Wagner didnt just go all out on their march on Moscow simply because it would have ended the war in the interim at least.
If true it can't be the end of this storyline? Surely the MoD isn't weakening its best asset for the sake of it?
Kinda feels like Russia has disappeared so far up its own arsehole trying to blur truth that even they don’t know what’s going on.
Insert the ‘it hurt itself in confusion’ meme here.
But what choice does it have? Putin cannot afford to leave Wagner at their current strength. He’d rather stay in power and lose in Ukraine, than win in Ukraine after being deposed.
Seriously. I read some of the reports and they make no sense even when they are supposed to benefit Russia. The only thing that makes sense is if you relate it to the tweet about deep corruption in the russian army that @Raoul shared. Maybe the answer is simply that we shouldn't look at things from a distance but look at who would privately benefit from certain actions?
That's for your to tell me, what we are told is that Wagner recent actions against the MoD are based on the MoD planning to dismantle PMCs unless that's a lie the MoD created their own issue and did it at a strange time.
I have to be honest here and say I have no idea what question you are asking me to answer!
It was a rhetorical question, I don't know what choice the MoD have or had, none of this mess makes sense to me, unless I missed a step the MoD and Putin antagonized Wagner for reasons that aren't clear and got a response that they seeminlgy didn't anticipate or were able to manage without amputing part of themselves.
Sorry, I think I just joined this conversation a little to late and am struggling to follow the threads. Wasn’t in anyway trying to be sarcy.
I agree that this makes precious little sense. It’s common to do a classic assessment in situations as opaque as this and asked by asking “who gains?”. And as hard as I look I just can’t see anyone on the Russian side who gains anything.
My first impression is that Lukashenko has played a blinder. He was as good as gone in Friday if Putin fell but now he has a mediator status, the additional (temporary) protection of a portion of Wagner's power, and some bargaining chips with Russia in order to deal with the Ukraine situation. All while he can seek to gain the trust of Prigozhin who -while alive- is a candidate to replace Putin if things don't go to plan, therefore extending his regime's protection beyond Putin.
That is, unless he is asked to off Prigozhin. Then "between a rock and a hard place" doesn't even start to describe the situation he will be in. And recent events/declarations suggest this is a very likely scenario.
That is, unless he is asked to off Prigozhin. Then "between a rock and a hard place" doesn't even start to describe the situation he will be in. And recent events/declarations suggest this is a very likely scenario.
No problem, I didn't took it that way. The situation is so strange, even discussing it is confusing.
I think the line "nothing is true and everything is possible" is the only assumption we can take away from these events.
Except it wasn't his purpose to just gain autonomy. He was legit attempting to raise hell in Moscow.
It was about retaining autonomy not gaining it and going after Moscow seemed to be the most direct and aggressive way to do it. If what has been reported is remotely true then somehow Progozhin actions makes sense, the part that is senseless is why would the MoD target Wagner at this particular time and that quickly while they were still seemingly crucial to Russia's efforts in Ukraine. Also why are they surprised or pretending to be surprised by that reaction when it allegedly follows antagonistic actions from Moscow?
I'm sure the beef between Shoihu and Prigozhin had a lot to do with why the Army and Wagner got into it in Ukraine. The Army and Air Force also tried to attack Prigozhin's convoy inside Russia.
I think Prigozhin (who is pretty adept at misinformation) was planning on using the excuses he did to go into Moscow and seize power, whilst blaming it on Shoigu all along the way. Had he gone into Moscow, and with Putin hiding in St. Pete, there's little anyone could've done at that point, especially given reports that Army units were defecting to Wagner along the way.
Apparently Ukraine are making advances, even if not big ones, across the frontlines.
Wish there was more talk about that, instead of the Wagner-drama, it still drowns out everything else.
Wish there was more talk about that, instead of the Wagner-drama, it still drowns out everything else.
I missed that part. Is it possible that the MoD tried to take control of Wagner because they were literally losing men and I would assume material to Wagner? And went about it as poorly as they planned their Ukraine invasion?
It must be due to rain in Belarus soon because I can foresee a special umbrella being delivered for Prigozhin
Somebody speculated a couple of pages back that Russia might launch tactical nukes from Belarus and somehow blame Wagner.
At the time I kinda brushed this off, but the more I think about it, Wagner and Russian nukes in Belarus is a potentially very bad combination. The BBC are probing the possibility that Wagner are building camps there. While Wagner don't have access to the nukes, they'd be the perfect scapegoat should Russia decide to use one.
I'm not really sure the west would buy it though, and I'm confident it'd still prompt a NATO response.
At the time I kinda brushed this off, but the more I think about it, Wagner and Russian nukes in Belarus is a potentially very bad combination. The BBC are probing the possibility that Wagner are building camps there. While Wagner don't have access to the nukes, they'd be the perfect scapegoat should Russia decide to use one.
I'm not really sure the west would buy it though, and I'm confident it'd still prompt a NATO response.
But how would Russia control Wagner's activities in Africa in this scenario?
I just don’t see how a nuke would benefit Russia though. They know it wouldn’t end a war, especially so if they blame Wagner (why try and create plausible deniability? Whole point is to drop a nuke and end the whole thing).
I think XI has likely made very clear to Putin that they won’t tolerate nukes. And that’s not even taking into account what the NATO response would be.
IMHO one of Putin’s gravest mistakes is assuming that he could play the nuclear threat card and the West would back down.
I think it’s more for internal politics than any serious attempt to threaten the west. It’s clear that Russia has been taken by surprise at the Western unity it has faced since the invasion, so may have been scrambling for the nuke card as a result.
But the main reason I think is to remind their domestic audience that they still have the ability to (theoretically) blow up the world five times over, despite getting slapped about in Ukraine.