Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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Bit of CIA jiggerypokery
Surovikin and Prigozhin/Wagner out of picture would be huge. They were scarily effective with their ruthless barbaric tactics. Their combo is probably one of the possible scenarios, where someone other than Putin could be worse.
They were the opposite of effective.
Yep. No Wagner in Ukraine would be massive, as would Surovkin's removal from air operations. Prigozhin's plan seems to have weakened Putin and made him look like a paper tiger, which other than death by execution following a coup, is the absolute worst outcome for him, since all aspiring coup plotters no know how weak he really is.
In addition to all the above -I have a hard time believing Putin welcomes Lukashenko's chatty behavior lately. Making himself look like some kind of savior of Russia, especially by implying Putin wasn't being rational about his intended response to the Wagner plans and that he talked him out of it. Of course, like anything else with these guys it could all be hot air or they have some weird good cop/bad cop cosplay going on.
Lukashenko is rubbing salt in Putin's wound isn't he. For a guy Vlad considers a subordinate, he's doing a lot of bold talking lately.Kind of like Russia's ever growing reliance on China
This guy needs a peace march
Is it just me or does this come across as a bit of an odd statement? Ukraine, sorry lads but if you can't beat Russia we don't want ya
Can't take them into NATO if they have territorial disputes with Russia. It would probably just as problematic if they were to "win too much", by trying to take some border regions from the Russians.
They are going to be de-mining the country for years after this. Expect a lot of needlessly lost limbs by civilians months and years into the future.
How can Ukraine join NATO if they are part of Russia?
I got the jest of what he meant, it just didn't read well. Especially when NATO countries are already investing a lot into the conflict outside of the scope of the alliance.
The issue is probably that once you're in, you're in. So while there seems to be a lot of mutual good will and trust at the moment, you don't know what the future brings. Zelenskyj may for example be genuinely willing to forego some territory in exchange for NATO membership. But dial time 10 to 20 years ahead: say Russia collapses or is at least hung over from the war and the people of Ukraine, still highly militarized, decide to get back what's theirs. At the moment NATO are investing a lot of money, but they aren't committed militarily. They could pull out of the situation at a moment's notice if they feel Ukraine is overstepping done boundaries. That wouldn't necessarily be the case once they joined.
To be fair, Article 5 is activated only for defensive reasons. If Ukraine is part of NATO and invades some other country, Article 5 cannot be activated.
In such a scenario they would probably be somewhat subtle about it. Just look at the Russian playbook.
Claim that your ethnicity is being oppressed.
The you send in peace keepers or some "rebels" and "mercenaries" start an insurgency.
Then Russia fights back and accidentally hits something Ukranian, who can then claim (at a superficial level) that it was an unprovoked attack.
Wonder if they were targeting him, he's pretty high profile as far as Ukrainian troops go. Apparently they've arrested a 'spotter'.
That would kinda suck being on a Russian kill list.
I'm sure this is the same logic Putin applied to Moldova when weighing the pros and cons of keeping Russian troops in Transnistria.
Dreadful to read the coverage of young people dying. Obviously I'm aware it's going on, but when you read through the stories it's just heart breaking. I'm sure any parents on here can vouch for this. The Kramatorsk attack is a total mess 
Whatsapp and not Telegram. Interesting.
What's the significance? Is Telegram easier for the FSB to hack?
Half expected a Jerky Boys skit to ensue.
Telegram is likely infiltrated by Russian security services. What’s App is owned by Facebook.