Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

What I find particularly fascinating: When the war begun, Putin was apparently surprised that he encountered such fierce resistance by Ukraine, expecting the population to essentially welcome the invasion force with open arms. Back then it was reasoned that the upwards flow of information in the Russian state wasn't to trust since only positive pieces would be reported as unpleasant news could lead to punishment. The whole war was started (and planned) on completely misguided assumptions and that pattern can be observed all the time. In the latest and most ironic twist, Wagner now cruised through Russia - being indeed welcomed with open arms by the population - in the exact same fashion Putin expected the Ukrainians to behave.

I think this is extremely telling and limits the capabilities of Russia extremely. We've seen it with terribly maintained weaponry, decision making that embraces phyrric victories and so forth. Basically conducting war and making the most important decisions on a completely altered projection of reality. That can't work out, neither in the short nor in the long term

This is exaggerated, too. Most Russians probably did not understand what exactly was happening. The whole thing lasted only 24 hours or something. And the Russian TV did not give out any info. The Wagner guys were probably lying to the Russians that they encountered, they could even be telling them that they have orders from Putin, and the Russians did not really know what was going on. That's why the civilians were so friendly and did not show any fear.
 
It seems odd to me that Prig would have took the huge risks he did if Putin could simply respond in the way you’ve described though. Surely Putin would have just done this a week ago?

If Prigozhin found out that Shoigu finally had permission from Putin to terminate him ... all risks were much less than what was awaiting him.

And neither Putin, nor anyone else expected that Prigozhin would be crazy enough to do what he did.
 
What I find particularly fascinating: When the war begun, Putin was apparently surprised that he encountered such fierce resistance by Ukraine, expecting the population to essentially welcome the invasion force with open arms. Back then it was reasoned that the upwards flow of information in the Russian state wasn't to trust since only positive pieces would be reported as unpleasant news could lead to punishment. The whole war was started (and planned) on completely misguided assumptions and that pattern can be observed all the time. In the latest and most ironic twist, Wagner now cruised through Russia - being indeed welcomed with open arms by the population - in the exact same fashion Putin expected the Ukrainians to behave.

I think this is extremely telling and limits the capabilities of Russia extremely. We've seen it with terribly maintained weaponry, decision making that embraces phyrric victories and so forth. Basically conducting war and making the most important decisions on a completely altered projection of reality. That can't work out, neither in the short nor in the long term

At the very least Putin will now be incredibly worried about how quickly Wagner made progress heading towards Moscow, and equally Rostov. And he will be looking at how to prevent it if it happened again. But what does he do? Can he afford to create a ring of steel around the population centres and military bases? Or can he reduce the threat of Wagner by disarming or disbanding them? Both of those options seem to me to be filled with problems. Russia needs functional, modern equipment, and trained, experienced soldiers in Ukraine and it needs them now.
 
If Prigozhin found out that Shoigu finally had permission from Putin to terminate him ... all risks were much less than what was awaiting him.

And neither Putin, nor anyone else expected that Prigozhin would be crazy enough to do what he did.

I cede to your clearly greater knowledge and experience of Russia, and what you say is logical. But then it seems that YP has made a catastrophic error by turning his troops around. Maybe it’s that simple, maybe Prig has taken Putin at his word and will soon pay the price.
 
I cede to your clearly greater knowledge and experience of Russia, and what you say is logical. But then it seems that YP has made a catastrophic error by turning his troops around. Maybe it’s that simple, maybe Prig has taken Putin at his word and will soon pay the price.

Ah, no, I have very little knowledge of Russia and I actually have no idea what happened and why... I am just discussing my ideas, and I don't overestimate my ideas, I know I could be completely wrong, I have no real knowledge.

But from what I read here and on BBC, this theory that I created made sense to me. Prigozhin is just a thug, he is not a master strategist. Perhaps in that mess they created, nobody knew what he was doing, neither Prigozhin nor Putin nor anyone else.
 
That's what they're doing right now. They have intensified their attacks in several regions in the last couple of days. They advanced nearly 1km on the Bakhmut flanks, they destroyed a Russian brigade in the Donetsk region and recovered ground that was lost 2014. They established a foothold on the left bank in Kherson and continue to poke Russian defense in the Zaporizhzia region.
UA is still holding back most of their newly trained brigades. It's not a blitz, but rather poking the entire front and if they feel they can break through somewhere, they'll hit them with the hammer.
Most of those gains happened before this event though. That means if this event has some effect, we will likely to see more bigger gains in the next few days.
 
Another settlement liberated in the Zaporizhzia region



It's also an example of the delay in reports of Ukrainian movements currently. Unless its being screamed about on Russia telegram, we won't know.

 
It's also an example of the delay in reports of Ukrainian movements currently. Unless its being screamed about on Russia telegram, we won't know.

True, the video was filmed yesterday. We get the info one day later. Today they could be further south already. Staromaiorsk is pretty vulnerable from three sides right now. It should be next.

So much for Russia's unity :lol:
 
True, the video was filmed yesterday. We get the info one day later. Today they could be further south already. Staromaiorsk is pretty vulnerable from three sides right now. It should be next.

So much for Russia's unity :lol:


:lol: It must be frustrating for the mighty Russian army to lose to an Oblast.
 
@nimic having pepsi max party as we speak

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If he gets some Coke Zero, I'll join in.

I'll get some tomorrow in your honour.
 
True, the video was filmed yesterday. We get the info one day later. Today they could be further south already. Staromaiorsk is pretty vulnerable from three sides right now. It should be next.

So much for Russia's unity :lol:


Margarita Simonyan asks why Russia needs anyway the Ukrainian oblast

All it took was 18 months of war, over 100,000 Russians dead, their economy in the toilet and their country a terrorist state for her to start asking herself what the feck they're doing in Ukraine.
 


Huge if true. It seems as the UA is slowly but surely increasing the heat in multiple fronts without specifically targeting one, which (if done right) could make the RA retreat from multiple fronts at the same time without giving them much options to reinforce one or the other. Let's hope good news keep coming.

PS: Maybe the thread title should go back yo focus on Ukraine, as Prigozhin sack/window watch feels like a sideshow now.
 
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Feels more like a Psy-Op against Ukraine so that they consider removing some southern and eastern front line troops to protect the north, which would of course diminish the counteroffensive.
I am sure Ukraine has plenty of reserve in that area already.
 
I am sure Ukraine has plenty of reserve in that area already.

I'm sure they have troops in the north, but not to deal with a Wagner offensive on Kiev. They would need some reinforcements to offset the fact that they're not fighting conventional Russian army units, but rather hardened fighters who are better equipped. What these guys are up to in Belarus will no doubt be monitored.
 
I'm sure they have troops in the north, but not to deal with a Wagner offensive on Kiev. They would need some reinforcements to offset the fact that they're not fighting conventional Russian army units, but rather hardened fighters who are better equipped. What these guys are up to in Belarus will no doubt be monitored.
They failed with much larger force last years Feb. Sure they are better trained, but not invisible to shrapnel. I am sure if they attempted something like saturday, they'll get obliterated without the necessity to deploy a larger force for it.