Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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I think the worst outcome for both sides, was avoided, and there is probably consensus in the elite that the selected solution was a good one. I think the Russian people will say the same. Just imagine a full scale conflict right outside Moscow, how damaging that would have been on so many levels.
Seems you would make sure your family was safe before attempting a coup.
This is not surprising at all. Prigozhin himself is apparently married with 3 kids. A predictably easy card for the FSB to play.
It was around well before Barr.Also, people forget that there did not seem to be a lot of troops heading to Moscow. The majority of Wagner was in Rostov with Prigozhin. It probably indicated that he did it to put pressure on Putin to discuss things with him immediately or had no idea what he was supposed to be doing after marching to Rostov. The troop he sent to Moscow would have crashed if there had been real fighting.
Unbelievable. These kids are going to have a few streets and bridges named after them following the war.
Real-life Wolverines, who are willing to sacrifice everything even when they did not have to for a better tomorrow.
Definitely.
Mental all this. Putin regime showed real weakness since the path to Moscow was literally open to Wagner. And in 24 hours it all collapsed, Prizhogin is a dead man walking, strange he went to Belarus, I guess he'll fall from a window unexpectedly soon.
He learnt to respect his competitors back in his catering days.
UA must take advantage of the chaos and situation in the RA at the moment.
"In the new era".
They're all such a bunch of bullies and cowards.
That's what they're doing right now. They have intensified their attacks in several regions in the last couple of days. They advanced nearly 1km on the Bakhmut flanks, they destroyed a Russian brigade in the Donetsk region and recovered ground that was lost 2014. They established a foothold on the left bank in Kherson and continue to poke Russian defense in the Zaporizhzia region.
UA is still holding back most of their newly trained brigades. It's not a blitz, but rather poking the entire front and if they feel they can break through somewhere, they'll hit them with the hammer.
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Great stuff. Didnt know the part about foothold on the left bank in Kherson.
Poking tactics is good cause it might cause RA positions to crumble somewhere, then come in all guns blazing there and in other fronts which my fall like dominos.
Has there been any reactions to Prigozhin's claims he found documents in the Russian MOD offices that confirms Russia have actually lost 3-4 times the amount of men that they claim have died in Ukraine?
Yeah, let's hope they can hold there and expand. Russia moved much of their military from Kherson to Zaporizhzia after the flooding, believing it's impossible to cross now. But most of the water has since receded and UA definetly searching for weak spots to cross now. But it's still very difficult of course. They have to advance a few km and destroy Russian presence there to cross, otherwise their crossing will be a nice target practice for Russia's artillery.
Russian mercenary chief Prigozhin is a ‘dead man walking,’ Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer says
“Putin has imprisoned and assassinated people for far less than what Prigozhin has done to him,” said Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group. “It’s inconceivable to me that Putin will allow him to live any longer than is absolutely necessary.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/26/rus...gozhin-is-dead-man-walking-eurasia-group.html
Prigozhin is “kind of dead man walking at this point,” Bremmer said on “Squawk Box Asia” Monday. “I would be very surprised that he’s still with us in a few months’ time.”
“Putin has imprisoned and assassinated people for far less than what Prigozhin has done to him,” said Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group. “It’s inconceivable to me that Putin will allow him to live any longer than is absolutely necessary.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/26/rus...gozhin-is-dead-man-walking-eurasia-group.html
Prigozhin is “kind of dead man walking at this point,” Bremmer said on “Squawk Box Asia” Monday. “I would be very surprised that he’s still with us in a few months’ time.”
I keep hearing this but surely Putin wouldn’t kill him and risk Wagner going rogue against Putin’s Russia in revenge?
Makes you wonder why he turned back because surely he is aware of this. Im still impressed he managed to march on Moscow with 25000 soldiers loyal to him and not to Putin.
I bet that a lot of the Wagner guys who participated in the rebellion will be terminated too. And nobody will care because most of them are criminals anyway, I mean they are considered criminals by the Russians, too.
My theory is that Prigozhin had inside info that they were going to arrest him in a day or two, so he had to do something. Since he hasn't been arrested yet, that was a win for him.
It wouldn't have been easy to arrest him, they basically would have had to fight their way to him, he is (was) very heavily protected. Maybe he was expecting he would be taken out via drone strike or similar.
Good news keep coming from Bakhmut
Think Ruskies would miss Wagner
Wouldnt it be beautiful that it took Russians over a year to occupy Bakhmut, only to lose it in a matter of couple of months.
It will be really interesting to see what happens if and when there is some move by Putin/FSB to identify and punish the other key players in Wagner.
Normally you’d expect Putin to not think twice before doing something like that, but he’s risking re-starting the civil war, one where his own troops absolutely collapsed at the feet of Wagner. I think he’s going to have to go against every urge in his body and let them get away with it for the moment, at least whilst they are still heavily armed, and needed in Ukraine.
I’m sure Prigozhin has played through this scenario and still retains an ability to respond.
How does that termination happen? The reason for the mutiny was because Russia apparently fired missiles on them. Surely if they attack then again they are risking another mutiny. Or Wagner turn on Prigozhin - is anyone strong enough to lead them without him?
I’m just spitballing obviously but it seems a bit to easy to suggest he will just kill the head of his mercenary army which has tens of thousands of recruits and think that he will keep that army under control and as effective as they have been.
His second in command looks like pleasant chap.Surely you wouldn't expect anything like that from such a fella
Bloody hell, the abject humiliation for Russia if they lose the pretty much the only town they’ve managed to gain in the last year.
Parts will be absorbed in the Russian army and parts will be simply dissolved. Wagner existed only because Putin gave money to his good friend Prigozhin to create an army. Putin gave, Putin hath taken away.
Edit: Prigozhin was complaining for months that Wagner did not receive enough supplies. Obviously, Wagner could never exist without the constant help and support of the regular Russian army and State. Soon, Wagner will not exist anymore. And we'll probably never learn how many of them went to prison or were killed because "they stole money or something". Don't forget that Russia is a Mafia State.
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I think the missile strike was staged. According to some intel, it appears the coup was planned for two months. Prighozin probably knew what was coming and the only way out was forward, so he took his chance and utilized the terrible state the Russian military is in. He probably knew their weaknesses better than Putin and Shoigu themselves, had a few important people supporting him, etc. Possibly saw how easy it would be to capture Rostov and an open door may tempt a saint, especially when said saint is backed into a corner.
According to some reprots, Putin was shocked how easily they advanced towards Moscow. As it seems Russia's domestic defense is undermanned due to their war efforts and maybe he will now have to committ some of his invasion force back to the motherland.
It seems odd to me that Prig would have took the huge risks he did if Putin could simply respond in the way you’ve described though. Surely Putin would have just done this a week ago?
What I find particularly fascinating: When the war begun, Putin was apparently surprised that he encountered such fierce resistance by Ukraine, expecting the population to essentially welcome the invasion force with open arms. Back then it was reasoned that the upwards flow of information in the Russian state wasn't to trust since only positive pieces would be reported as unpleasant news could lead to punishment. The whole war was started (and planned) on completely misguided assumptions and that pattern can be observed all the time. In the latest and most ironic twist, Wagner now cruised through Russia - being indeed welcomed with open arms by the population - in the exact same fashion Putin expected the Ukrainians to behave.
I think this is extremely telling and limits the capabilities of Russia extremely. We've seen it with terribly maintained weaponry, decision making that embraces phyrric victories and so forth. Basically conducting war and making the most important decisions on a completely altered projection of reality. That can't work out, neither in the short nor in the long term
I think this is extremely telling and limits the capabilities of Russia extremely. We've seen it with terribly maintained weaponry, decision making that embraces phyrric victories and so forth. Basically conducting war and making the most important decisions on a completely altered projection of reality. That can't work out, neither in the short nor in the long term