Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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Prigozjin to pay 50 million rubles to families of people slaughtered in yesterdays coup.
A fool in the convoy shoots down everything . Same fool that was in Donetsk in 2014?
There may be no 4d chess as you described it. But I have been around long enough to know that everything is not always as it seems.
Lukaschenko is nothing if not streetwise. And he could well be seeing that the end of Putin may not be that far away. So what better than to get closer to the potential successor.
He knows full well that he needs to have a power base from which to keep a tight control on his country.
Do you really believe that Prigozhin and his Wagner malitia risked all of this just to force Putin hand to try and get rid of a few of his generals. I do not. Risk and reward. What was the reward.
Now we know what they did yesterday. Holding against invisible enemys like always
Have these pretend soldiers ever seen any real action?
I say that Prighozin did it because he was backed into a corner. Now he has punched his way out of it and took the offramp. Doesn't mean there won't be something following up but let's be honest, the way Russia presented itself in this war so far - and basically all its actors - is the prototype of Occam's razor. I don't buy that this is all part of a bigger scheme or anything like that. They don't have multilayered masterplans they see through over a matter of months. Their schemes and betryals are much more trivial and one dimensional than this and usually very short term oriented, often biting them in the ass after a relatively short while.
So...business as usual?
From this is staged by Ukraine to Prigozhin supreme leader of Belarus, you are doing quite well in the imagination department
Hey I'm just spitballin, I don't believe these things.
Trying to think of what he could have been offered after being in such a strong position, making Putin look like a chump and turning large parts of the Russian people to his side. It's also apparent how disapointed Putin has been with Luka's contribution to this war.
Very much doubt he's just accepted exile, that's pretty much accepting death.
Can someone brighter than me explain the 'Wagnerok' joke in the thread title?
The answer might be really boring and just about money. I'm sure Putin could find a few billion to chuck his way.
It’s a play of words with the Wagner group and the word Ragnarök.
How about, he knew Wagner was unlikely to make it all the way to Moscow and therefore opted to secure a deal that A) Keeps him alive for now, B) Keeps his main source of money and power (Wagner foreign operations) more or less intact and C) Keeps his image in Russia as a strongman and potential succesor also more or less intact?
You know, nothing too far out of Occam's razor.
You know, nothing too far out of Occam's razor.
This was brewing for some time. It also hasn't helped matters that Shoigu is viewed as incredibly corrupt and inept, at a time when Wagner was doing much of the heavy lifting in Ukraine, all the while Shoigu, because he was with Putin, taking most of the credit for Prigozhin's efforts. One can see how the latter would eventually not reach a boiling point, especially after reports of the MOD dragging its feet in supplying Wagner's logistical needs.
The fact that so many Russian Army troops were disaffected with Shoigu (as has been consistently picked up on in phone convos where soldiers complain to their wives how incompetent their Army leadership is), may also explain how Prigozhin was able to get so many Army defections as quickly as he did. Had he continued to Moscow, there's a fair chance he would've walked right in.
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With a vast majority of the Russian army busy in Ukraine and elements of the Army disaffected by the current leadership, there's a decent chance he would've made it to Moscow. Putin and his stooges like Medvedev and the others would've simply regrouped in St. Pete and there would've probably been some sort of civil war that ended in one of two factions winning. The only thing that prevented this is that Prigozhin himself, probably wasn't interested in going for regime change as he was decapitating the influence of Shoigu and Gerasimov.
Ah, nice.
I don't know why i expected the play on words to be funny to me, given that it was clearly a reference to something I'd never heard of.
what a shit showHe'll have a few people killed to try and re-enhance his position perhaps?
Have we though? If that is the case, it is so bizarre that Prigozhin turned around and got himself exiled.
The army clearly did not want to stop Wagner, however the air force did try. So it's obvious that the military is split and not completely on one side here.
My impression was that most of them are in UA. When their border states were infiltrated earlier, it took a long time for them to get there. It pretty much applied the same here. And you can't forget that their national guard which I assume is responsible for things like Moscow's safety were pretty much prepared for the Wagner arrival. If they were close, there would be bloody fights.
Some parts of the army may agree with Prigozhin on the fact that they were sent to be killed for no reason. Btw, don't forget that despite whatever he said, he sent thousands of his own troops to death for months. The fights breaking out between them lately indicate that they are not exactly friendly to each other. And the main reason why they did not have a fight on the ground was, I think, because Putin and the MOD restrained themselves from escalating it to become a fully civil war, which would feck them up. How the deal ended probably indicated that Prigozhin did NOT have necessarily support within, that included the Russian's defense forces.
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B requires assumption that Putin won't alter the deal once he's safer and C didn't really happen.
Still trying to make sense of a day in which the least surprising things were Rick Astley doing a (good) Smiths set and the wild man lead singer of the rock band of my teenage years looking like Ronald Koeman. The only firm conclusions I can draw are:
- There is no way this was some staged, 4D chess move by Putin. Dictators who rely on projecting knuckle-dragging machismo do not choose to look so weak for ulterior motives.
- Now the weakness has been on display, it’s a matter of when, not if, someone has a tilt at the crown.
The big question of course is just how much pain Ukraine has to suffer in the interim. However, I’m confident that this is the beginning of the end for Putin, and his successor, although probably equally morally depraved, will seek an exit from the quagmire so as to continue the main business of looting and accumulating wealth.
- There is no way this was some staged, 4D chess move by Putin. Dictators who rely on projecting knuckle-dragging machismo do not choose to look so weak for ulterior motives.
- Now the weakness has been on display, it’s a matter of when, not if, someone has a tilt at the crown.
The big question of course is just how much pain Ukraine has to suffer in the interim. However, I’m confident that this is the beginning of the end for Putin, and his successor, although probably equally morally depraved, will seek an exit from the quagmire so as to continue the main business of looting and accumulating wealth.
A bit optimistic but not imposible.
Interesting take. Have no clue if it’s close to the mark, obviously, but it makes me think of Putin’s bombing of those apartments to give pretense to invade Chechnya.
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZT8JcF1Yb/
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZT8JcF1Yb/
Mass murderer that kills people with a fkn sledgehammer takes over town, shoots down his own sides helicopters etc and kills 10, destroys roads, threatens presidency etc. Then stops and turns around to a hero's parade. Put aside its all nuts. What does it say about the Russian people and their ability to put in place someone who is not a psychopath. If there was hope of overthrowing Putin for a better world I think that's out of the window now. All that will happen if Putin goes is that he will be replaced by another dictator who might even be worse.
I have a feeling this doesn't get the attention it deserves. Does someone really think Russia wouldn't do it after all those countless warcrimes if Ukraine breaks through in Zaporizhzia? I really hope NATO told them through back channels that it would not stand by and watch, if they release a nuclear catastrophe on Europe.
Whatever she said will happen now, regardless of whether the event is staged or not. Putin will force "unity" and be more ruthless. There could be more recruiting for their troops, which he talked about hours earlier before that event. The nuclear power plant stuff is up there in the air. That's why I am a bit skeptical about people talking about it as a good thing. Putin's reputation has been down the drain in the West for ages. This event may take a hit on his reputation among countries with his influences, but it does not really help the UA on the battlefield, at least not right away. It is more like he is trying to escalate the war more and more.
Or maybe his end is near.
What benefit does that serve Russia? Contaminating an area that their own forces occupy. And strategically its suicide.
It's a scenario when Ukraine breaks their defensive lines of course, so they wouldn't occupy this region. It would force Ukraine to stop all attacks and evacuate an insane amount of people. And to give Europe a dire situation to deal with, is Putin's wet dream probably. If they really placed explosives there, then they are fully prepared to press the button. It's the same scenario with the hydro-electric power plant. They also put exlosives there months ago and people didn't really believe they would blow it up and here we are.
Well in this case it's different because the wind may very well blow towards Russia.And once they do this, it becomes no man's land. So Ukraine will really not need to occupy an radiologically contaminated area, therefore focusing on on other fronts. The point for using resources for evacuation is valid, but that can also be done using the civil authorities and reserve units, not necessarily the "point" forces
The US has more or less told them it might trigger Article 5 because of the fallout affecting NATO countries. I don't know the status of that legislation though.