Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

nimic said:
That is honestly not an outcome I ever saw coming. For him personally it seems insane to trust Lukashenko to keep him safe. As for Wagner, it remains to be seen if they can retain their apparent quality advantage over the Russian regulars while ostensibly becoming part (?) of them.
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Yeah, it's basically a Russian vassal anyway. I doubt he'll stay there, but he can't come and live in western Europe either because he'd end up in a war crime tribunal.

If I were him, I'd try to seek asylum in China, failing that, somewhere in South America. I feel like the writing's on the wall though, the Russians will catch up with him wherever he goes.
 
Raoul said:
That sounds like a terrible deal for Putin, which I doubt he would accept given that he's used to being a totalitarian dictator. I can't see Wagner continuing to exist in any capacity after this if Putin remains in charge, as it would be far too much a threat towards the survival of his regime.
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Most likely. Still, they are personal friends and it could be that they trus each other on a personal level. In a way, they are the same kind. I can't see how anyone could have real ambitions of challenging Putin with his massive support of his people. I think the endgame in this, could revolve around the question whether the Russian army shelled the Wagners, and whether Putin approved it. Some heads will be rolling.
 
Rajma said:
If anyone will dear me to say it’s not russians war it’s Putin’s next time:

It’s a blood thirsty nation that deserves to be completely isolated from the western world. They’re not like us.
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No warning for this asshattery then?
 
The Firestarter said:
Exactly. He'll hate Lukashenko for appearing more competent than him as well.
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If I'd be a slimy politician I'd start saying Lukaschenko is a hero and he could do so much good for the world by liberating the Ukrainians. Give him an even bigger head and broadcast to his population that if only he d do that the money from the west will start pouring in.
 
Just look at the telling reactions of Prigozhins audience on his own official telegram channel after he struck a deal with Putin:

Clown that chickened out when the stakes were at its peak.
 
Rajma said:
It’s the truth that many are not willing to admit still while they keep doing the genocide of Ukrainians for over a year.
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I'm not even sure what you think is true but "they're not like us" is at best careless phrasing as it sounds like ethnic hate speech intended or not.
 
The Firestarter said:
Yeah imagine it happens in Washington. Crazy.
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I don't know how true that is actually. In some ways we take a lot of things lying down in this country too. Look at how Trump boy was fine with Erdogan's goons beating up Americans in flipping DC. And how surprisingly little outrage there was. Imagine a US President showing up to Turkey and his goons start beating the shit out of Turks.
 
Redplane said:
I wonder if some of this is used as an excuse to start launching more operations from Belarus ("if he s there anyway"...)
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Belarus got nuclear weapons now, don't they. The next surprise in this war could be that Belarus joins it.
 
No matter how anti-climatic the ending to this was, it gave Ukraine some momentum to launch attacks, also, if this signals the end of Wagner's participation of the war, its certainly is a win for Ukraine.
 
Dve said:
Belarus got nuclear weapons now, don't they. The next surprise in this war could be that Belarus joins it.
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Russia claims to have stationed nuclear weapons there, but as far as I know they aren’t in Belarus’s control. It’s just a stage for Russia to launch them from.
 
Bit of an anticlimax in the end….thought this was going to make up for dull days in the transfer window
 
It seems that Prigozhin will go to Belarus. Does he think he will be safe there? Nobody will do him any harm?

And what about the Wagner guys? Prigozhin abandoned them all. Does anyone believe that Putin, the KGB mafia boss, will just leave them alone? How many will end up in prison, or cannon fodder in Ukraine?
 
Rajma said:
Just look at the telling reactions of Prigozhins audience on his own official telegram channel after he struck a deal with Putin:

Clown that chickened out when the stakes were at its peak.
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Idiot will carry the L on his forehead for the rest of his (likely numbered) days
 
frostbite said:
It seems that Prigozhin will go to Belarus. Does he think he will be safe there? Nobody will do him any harm?

And what about the Wagner guys? Prigozhin abandoned them all. Does anyone believe that Putin, the KGB mafia boss, will just leave them alone? How many will end up in prison, or cannon fodder in Ukraine?
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Doesn't he plan to bugger off to Africa or something?

Certainly a win for Ukraine, if thats the case.
 
If he goes to Belarus and leaves his Wagnerites behind that'd be pretty remarkable betrayal, all things considered.
 
Well. It is Prigozhin. He hardly ever followed through on what he said he would do.

I thought the whole thing looked too easy and peaceful (except for those pilots). The deal which ended it seemed that way too. Weird but predictable saga.
 
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Morty_ said:
Doesn't he plan to bugger off to Africa or something?

Certainly a win for Ukraine, if thats the case.
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I am not sure what you meant by a win for UA. Yeah, he will be gone, but no one else will talk sh*t about their MOD, which actually made things weird between them, lowering their morale. Also, most Wagners would be joining up with MOD, meaning the total number of RU that UA would be facing is more or less the same.
 
The United said:
I am not sure what you meant by a win for UA. Yeah, he will be gone, but no one else will talk sh*t about their MOD, which actually made things weird between them, lowering their morale. Also, most Wagners would be joining up with MOD, meaning the total number of RU that UA would be facing is more or less the same.
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Yeah but Wagner is by far the most competent force they have. Who's to say that remains when they're put under MOD control? More abstractly, this was also a great display of weakness for Russia in general and Putin in particular. Ukrainians weren't exactly low on fighting spirit and morale before, but this might well give them even more confidence.
 
If this was Paul Allen at the description of a playoff game with the Vikings, I swear he would be saying the following to describe the way this revolt ended:

ARE YOU KIDDING ME? THE SEASON CAN'T END LIKE THAT!
 
The United said:
I am not sure what you meant by a win for UA. Yeah, he will be gone, but no one else will talk sh*t about their MOD, which actually made things weird between them, lowering their morale. Also, most Wagners would be joining up with MOD, meaning the total number of RU that UA would be facing is more or less the same.
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Certainly it is a win, surely you can see that, none of this is good for Russia.

It signals Wagner group having less involvement overall in Ukraine, even if Russia will have some of them in the army to fight in Ukraine, also, the total chaos here has given Ukraine momentum.

Of course it is a win.
 
nimic said:
Yeah but Wagner is by far the most competent force they have. Who's to say that remains when they're put under MOD control? More abstractly, this was also a great display of weakness for Russia in general and Putin in particular. Ukrainians weren't exactly low on fighting spirit and morale before, but this might well give them even more confidence.
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Yeah, but I was talking about the number of troops. I mean, it is hard for me to talk about the quality' of troops in this war on both sides. But we do know that the numbers of RA troops have been the greatest obstacle for the UA troops so far. I would prefer that this event took a lot of them out. But, apparently did not.
 
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frostbite said:
It seems that Prigozhin will go to Belarus. Does he think he will be safe there? Nobody will do him any harm?

And what about the Wagner guys? Prigozhin abandoned them all. Does anyone believe that Putin, the KGB mafia boss, will just leave them alone? How many will end up in prison, or cannon fodder in Ukraine?
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Answering to myself... Perhaps Prigozhin had information that they are going to take Wagner from him and throw him in prison, so he had to do something. He could not just fly to the West, because the West would send him to jail for his numerous crimes. So, he engineered this "rebellion" just to gain some small advantage. Will it be enough for him to survive long term? Who knows? And if his short-term survival was at stake, this is better than nothing, at least he survived (for now) and he is not in prison (yet).

As for the Wagner guys ... who cares? Certainly, Prigozhin does not care and never gave a fart about them... after all, they are just useless criminals.
 
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