This is not going to end well for anyone connected to Wagner and loyal to Prigozhin, surely?
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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I reckon prigozhin has the majority of the military and the security services on his side. He's probably been given control of the defence ministry and putin will take a back seat ala Medvedev style.
Or everything is tits up and we know nowt.
Nuking themselves might be seen as a bit of an overreaction by the Russian people.
Yeah, but wouldn’t he target positions in Ukraine?
There is no official version, they were shown reacting to events instead of controlling the narrative.
Seems like he’s a bit thick, a common theme in Kremlin.
I don’t get this, from either end.
Surely Putin can’t just go back to trusting him to carry out his orders after he marched his army to Moscow?
Equally, regardless of what assurances he’s received, surely he can’t believe that Putin won’t have him killed at the earliest possible opportunity.
I don’t see how either side is supposed to go back to cooperating after this.
Surely Putin can’t just go back to trusting him to carry out his orders after he marched his army to Moscow?
Equally, regardless of what assurances he’s received, surely he can’t believe that Putin won’t have him killed at the earliest possible opportunity.
I don’t see how either side is supposed to go back to cooperating after this.
Aren't they a "public" army with private "rules"?
This, Shoigu's resignation and allowing them to go back to Africa murdering and raping folk there.
The US have already back channeled to Putin that they would respond with a conventional attack on Russians if he used a tactical nuke in Ukraine.
Maybe they got his family ? I don't see any other way to cause such an abrupt heelturn.
While it was likely a suicide mission, I think his chances of succeeding in this "surprise" rebellion were much higher than they will be in any subsequent event, and, by giving in, he's signed his death warrant.
Girkin wants his attention too:
This. He had the element of surprise and had a motivated and hardened force. He actually had a fair chance I think, if more units joined along the way.
Yeah, but the question was what would Russia respond with, if NATO attacked them conventionally as things stand now. So the threat of a conventional attack kinda goes out the window if it already happened.
True. Unless this is some sort of elaborate 4d chess fake by Prigozhin. All other signs point to him getting killed since he has made Putin look incredibly weak by fleeing the capital.
Interesting if the above was published after Prigozhin announced he was pulling back.
If Gerasimoigu get replaced and Wagner continues to exist, it would appear that he got what he wanted from Putin by blackmail. Not a small feat.
He’d just blame Wagner group for the mess.
Another thing Putin and Trump have in common: running away to their bunkers.
Interesting
That sounds like a terrible deal for Putin, which I doubt he would accept given that he's used to being a totalitarian dictator. I can't see Wagner continuing to exist in any capacity after this if Putin remains in charge, as it would be far too much a threat towards the survival of his regime.
Coup is cancelled boys. Thy did a deal
Hardly
Putin could save his face by throwing Shoigu and Gerasimov under the bus. He could make a statement that the military leadership actually ordered an attack on Russian troops (i.e. Wagner), and that the people responsible are being arrested. In general, both Putin and Prigozhin have plenty of support among the Russians, and I think most would be ready to forgive them both.
It was an interesting hypothesis while things were still cooking, but I don't think they would've ended this way if Prigozhin was a front for the FSB.
How long before he's dead? 2 weeks?
Prigozhin's followers launching a failed coup against him would be fitting.
At this rate, the Wagner soldiers who protected him as recently as a few hours ago may get to him before Putin does. Unless of course this a giant smokescreen.
Obviously not now.
today has been very 1984-ty
That's arguably the scenario that makes the most kind of sense to me. Prigozhin will say that he 's shown over the last 24 hours that the people who were in charge are completely incompetent, so put him in charge of the entire military and he'll not only turn his troops around but he'll win the war for Russia. Putin won't be happy, but agreed to the terms since things looked so bad for him.
Prigozhin has to know that Putin would still look to take him out at some point (perhaps after the war is over), but maybe he feels that by then he'll have such a strong grip on the military that he can actually launch a full-scale coup and become the next ruler.
Either that or Putin has Prigozhin's family.
Of course, most likely it's something else entirely.
Given everything that's happened, this may be a good time for Putin to reassess his need to be in Ukraine. Not likely though.
Exactly. He'll hate Lukashenko for appearing more competent than him as well.