Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

The Firestarter said:
Exactly. He'll hate Lukashenko for appearing more competent than him as well.
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Also, the sheer speed at which both Lukashenko fled Minsk and Putin/Medvedev fled Moscow, suggests these guys are absolutely bricking it at the thought of being overthrown and executed. Not knowing when that inevitable moment is coming must be excruciating.
 
Raoul said:
Also, the sheer speed at which both Lukashenko fled Minsk and Putin/Medvedev fled Moscow, suggests these guys are absolutely bricking it at the thought of being overthrown and executed. Not knowing when that inevitable moment is coming must be excruciating.
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Yep, and regardless of what it signals to his own populace, it is clear that Putin is terrified of his own inner circle. It doesn't seem like he thinks he can rely on the loyalty of his own military, his security forces or even those around him
 
Ragnar123 said:
Yeah. He was in prison for child prostitution, then took over a restaurant that was a meeting point for Moscow's high society. This way he met Putin and his friendship gave him the opportunity to open restaurants all over the country, as well as cater for the whole Russian army. He made billions and with that money, he created Wagner.
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No he wasn't?
 
Devil You Know said:
Yeah, I agree. I think he'll throw the kitchen sink at Ukraine in order to win the war, but then fail as an administrator when running the country.
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Someone will bump him the first chance they get. I doubt this guy is going to respect any deals they have with China, but the US will see this as an opportunity to get Russia.
 
Progzhin almost engineered a coup, there is no way he’d be stupid enough to get assassinated by Putin’s goon squad. Some feckery must be afoot.
Maybe Putin has promised to step down?
Do a Krushchev
 
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If anyone will dear me to say it’s not russians war it’s Putin’s next time:

It’s a blood thirsty nation that deserves to be completely isolated from the western world. They’re not like us.
 
Suv666 said:
Progzhin almost engineered a coup, there is no way he’d be stupid enough to get assassinated by Putin’s goon squad. Some feckery must be afoot.
Maybe Putin has promised to step down?
Do a Krushchev
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I feel like he may have been acting on emotion rather than a coherent strategy, and once he had a chance to come to his senses, may have began looking for a way out. Trouble is, he’s already crossed the Rubicon and will probably die soon. Unless of course he was deceiving Lukashenko, which wouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility.
 
This is just the beginning of whatever this insane new phase is. Putin has been betrayed and left looking impotent. Let the carnage ensue.
 
Someone told Kadyrov's tiktokers that they can start their vehicles again and drive home? No need to pretend a traffic jam anymore.
 
Rajma said:
If anyone will dear me to say it’s not russians war it’s Putin’s next time:

It’s a blood thirsty nation that deserves to be completely isolated from the western world. They’re not like us.
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Wtf are you on about? Us? We don't do wars?
 
Raoul said:
I feel like he may have been acting on emotion rather than a coherent strategy, and once he had a chance to come to his senses, may have began looking for a way out. Trouble is, he’s already crossed the Rubicon and will probably die soon. Unless of course he was deceiving Lukashenko, which wouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility.
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Acting on emotion?

He apparently stockpiled weapons and ammo for 2 months. Few weeks ago captured a russion army officer and forced him to admit that russian army attack Wagnerites. After being released the officer denied it, ofcourse. He also staged a scene of an attack on wagner camp to use it as a justification. All of this sounds very calculated and premeditated to discredit russian army and MOD.

He was careful to never accuse Putin, possibly out of loyalty? But it looks to me, that goal was never to remove Putin, but either preserve himself (as Wagner was to be incorporated in MOD on 1st July) or assume command of military. I think it was a coup, but against Shoigu. He was probably surprised to be called a traitor by Putin (however Putin never named him in his speech, apparantly). The dice was cast, but once he got his off ramp, he took it. However, the question remains, what is the deal that Lukashenko brokered.

If Shoigu is removed, then Prigozhin has won, temporarily at least. However, he will have to look back constantly, as Putin will look to dispose of him.
 
I am honestly flabbergasted at the outcome. Prigozhin will be despised by his own for walking this back, a number one priority target for assassin from the most powerful people in the country. For what? He might actually have pulled it off.
 
Superden said:
Wtf are you on about? Us? We don't do wars?
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He may have meant that Putin's Russia is a totalitarian dictatorship, as opposed to a western democracy. Hence, the difference. I'm sure if we went back far enough, many present day democracies have done bad things, but there's really no comparing a fully functioning democratic system where people choose their leaders, with a full blown autocracy.
 
Jotun said:
Acting on emotion?

He apparently stockpiled weapons and ammo for 2 months. Few weeks ago captured a russion army officer and forced him to admit that russian army attack Wagnerites. After being released the officer denied it, ofcourse. He also staged a scene of an attack on wagner camp to use it as a justification. All of this sounds very calculated and premeditated to discredit russian army and MOD.

He was careful to never accuse Putin, possibly out of loyalty? But it looks to me, that goal was never to remove Putin, but either preserve himself (as Wagner was to be incorporated in MOD on 1st July) or assume command of military. I think it was a coup, but against Shoigu. He was probably surprised to be called a traitor by Putin (however Putin never named him in his speech, apparantly). The dice was cast, but once he got his off ramp, he took it. However, the question remains, what is the deal that Lukashenko brokered.

If Shoigu is removed, then Prigozhin has won, temporarily at least. However, he will have to look back constantly, as Putin will look to dispose of him.
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I can't plausibly see any scenario where Putin allows Prigozhin to live, much less continue to function in any prominent role. If he doesn't kill him on the spot, he may instead opt for the usual excuse of Prigozhin mysteriously falling ill and dying at a later date.
 
Raoul said:
He may have meant that Putin's Russia is a totalitarian dictatorship, as opposed to a western democracy. Hence, the difference. I'm sure if we went back far enough, many present day democracies have done bad things, but there's really no comparing a fully functioning democratic system where people choose their leaders, with a full blown autocracy.
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I thought his comment was more aimed at the Russian people as a whole. As in they are not like us. And that's just batshit stereotyping.
 
Raoul said:
I can't plausibly see any scenario where Putin allows Prigozhin to live, much less continue to function in any prominent role. If he doesn't kill him on the spot, he may instead opt for the usual excuse of Prigozhin mysteriously falling ill and dying at a later date.
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I agree with you. Putin will not let Prigozhin live. I don't think Putin is particularly smart, but he is ruthless and has been ruthless with everyone who opposed him. So why would Prigozhin accept the deal and stand down. What are the security guarantees he was promised?

I had the inkling feeling that this coup wasn't about removing Putin, but controlling him, basically Prigozhin becoming master puppeteer (if he believed russian public would never accept convicted criminal as leader and Putin is popular in russia). If Prigozhin (or his allies) was promised control of army, that would give him a lot of power (but not likely). Perhaps he understood he had no chance to seize control and accepted any deal that was offered for standing down (most likely).


I think once the dust settles and we see the results of the deal, things will be much clearer. Until then we can only speculate.

Edit: Looks like Prigozhin realized he didn't have the support he thought he did and decided to take a deal to save his life.
 
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The top story on GB News is "Is the Great British pint in danger?"
 
That is honestly not an outcome I ever saw coming. For him personally it seems insane to trust Lukashenko to keep him safe. As for Wagner, it remains to be seen if they can retain their apparent quality advantage over the Russian regulars while ostensibly becoming part (?) of them.
 
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