Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
So... what is Prigozhin going to do in Belarus of all places now?
Russian spies everywhere, they could have been watching the family
Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s not heard from again
Quite simply being on the winning side. Lukashenko manages to not being directly involved and to a certain degree even makes pro-Ukrainian statements like congratulating them on their independence day. He will switch sides if he thinks it will benefit him.
Who?
Strange and unexpected turn of events. Hopefully Ukraine manages to capitalise further anyway.
Posturing. Belarus has no access to the weapons or at least, they don't have the authority to use them unilaterally. They're Russia's nukes, they're just strategically positioned there. Russia wouldn't just give Belarus nuclear weapons.
They're a Russian vassal state and have been for decades.
Wagner dude
Not getting totally screwed no matter who wins I'd guess.
If Putin had a hold on or leverage with Prigozhi, he wouldn't need to make any concessions about MOD, as some sources are saying. Prigozhi was a bit of a loser in this deal in the end and had been exiled for good pretty much. It seemed like he was happy to keep his organization (smaller now) and his life for now.
Last edited:
Reading that twitter thread further, apparently the documents he tried to hand over weren't the ones Shoigu wanted him to sign. They were ones Wagner drafted up that basically gives them authority over MoD.
If true, it does make my previous thoughts (Prigozhi turned around because he was given control of the military after proving how incompetent they were) more likely. Although apparently he's heading to Belarus for now, so maybe not.
I do wonder if Prigozhin will indeed be exiled for good.
Or whether he will be able to agitate against Putin and his generals.
Importantly, Wagner accounted for about one quarter of the Russian forces fighting in Ukraine. And assuming these are withdrawn from Ukraine, it has to have a significant effect on the war in Ukraine.
The guy who tweeted this is known bullshitter on twitter, like Chuck Pharrer. He reposts some tweets from others to gain a following and mixes it with sensationalist made up bullshit to seem authentic. He's indykalia of this war. He's just a random ukrainian guy living in US.
Pretty sure I read somewhere that the Wagner forces have been ordered to return to their former posts and have been excused, it’s only prig who has been exiled.
Understood. Nevertheless, you do have to wonder about the moral of these troops now that their founder and leader is supposedly no longer in command.
Especially as he has been highly critical of the Russian generals.
Bloody hell so much to catch up on, having been out Saturday night.
Wagner just proved that to get concessions from Putin you need to fight fire with fire. If Putin supposedly took advantage of the West’s non-action over Georgia 08 and Ukraine 14, hopefully the West takes advantage of Putin’s total weakness here. Let Ukraine finish the job without one arm behind its back.
Wagner just proved that to get concessions from Putin you need to fight fire with fire. If Putin supposedly took advantage of the West’s non-action over Georgia 08 and Ukraine 14, hopefully the West takes advantage of Putin’s total weakness here. Let Ukraine finish the job without one arm behind its back.
Like everything out of Russia, the last couple of days feel like a theatre or circus. Some very strange things happened during the coup:
- Why did Prigozhin accept such an unfavorable deal for him from a position of strength? What exactly did he gain, that he didn't have before in return for a Belarusian exile? Or was he forced to accept because they held his family hostage?
- Why didn't Kadyrov's forces engage in Rostov, but were "stuck" the whole day in a traffic jam? Are they simply cowards, did they get the info about negotiations or did somebody tell them beforehand that it was a show?
- Why didn't Russia bomb that column to dust, or at least sent troops to delay them? They drove the whole night and the whole day without any meaningful resistance apart from some minor roadblocks with trucks. They were only 200km away from Moscow and endangered Putin's reign, his life and Russia's stability. You'd think Putin would have answered way harder if his reign was really in danger? Russia's bomber fleet acted like it was a normal day and attacked Ukraine with 50 missiles yesterday, instead of using them on Wagner's column.
I think the next weeks and months will show if that was all show or not. Will Prigozhin be alive? Will he still be a public figure? Where will he be? What will Wagner do? If this whole act wasn't agreed with Putin as some kind of cleansing operation to see who is loyal and who not, Prigozhin is a dead man walking and his Wagners are finished. Neither can Putin allow someone to live, who threatens him personally, nor can he allow Wagner to continue to exist, at least inside Russia. So will they go back to their atrocities in Africa and Syria? Will they close their offices in Russia? Was that Prigozhin's goal the entire time to blackmail his way back to Africa without looking like someone who ran from the battlefield, because he was tired of fighting and losing his men to Nato equipped Ukrainian forces?
It's all very confusing at the moment and time and Putin's behaviour towards Prigozhin and Wagner will clarify some things.
But some things are already clear: Putin's reign isn't that tight and secure as he sells it, if 25k mercenaries can endanger it. He showed weakness by running from Moscow, the complete opposite of Zelenskyy. The people's reactions in Rostov showed, that a coup is really possible in Russia. They don't love Putin, they love strength. So they will support whoever shows strength on the street. This could be dangeous for Putin going into the future.
But although it could have been better, it still helped Ukraine. Every instability inside Russia weakens it on the battlefield. Their morale and logistics were reduced to nearly zero for 2 days, it'll start slowly again and will delay much. Also this topic will be present for Russian soldiers for weeks to come and that won't help their already low morale. Those Wagner forces who have to sign contracts with the MoD will be 1. unhappy and 2. lose their efficiency.
Let's see how this all develops on the battlefield.
- Why did Prigozhin accept such an unfavorable deal for him from a position of strength? What exactly did he gain, that he didn't have before in return for a Belarusian exile? Or was he forced to accept because they held his family hostage?
- Why didn't Kadyrov's forces engage in Rostov, but were "stuck" the whole day in a traffic jam? Are they simply cowards, did they get the info about negotiations or did somebody tell them beforehand that it was a show?
- Why didn't Russia bomb that column to dust, or at least sent troops to delay them? They drove the whole night and the whole day without any meaningful resistance apart from some minor roadblocks with trucks. They were only 200km away from Moscow and endangered Putin's reign, his life and Russia's stability. You'd think Putin would have answered way harder if his reign was really in danger? Russia's bomber fleet acted like it was a normal day and attacked Ukraine with 50 missiles yesterday, instead of using them on Wagner's column.
I think the next weeks and months will show if that was all show or not. Will Prigozhin be alive? Will he still be a public figure? Where will he be? What will Wagner do? If this whole act wasn't agreed with Putin as some kind of cleansing operation to see who is loyal and who not, Prigozhin is a dead man walking and his Wagners are finished. Neither can Putin allow someone to live, who threatens him personally, nor can he allow Wagner to continue to exist, at least inside Russia. So will they go back to their atrocities in Africa and Syria? Will they close their offices in Russia? Was that Prigozhin's goal the entire time to blackmail his way back to Africa without looking like someone who ran from the battlefield, because he was tired of fighting and losing his men to Nato equipped Ukrainian forces?
It's all very confusing at the moment and time and Putin's behaviour towards Prigozhin and Wagner will clarify some things.
But some things are already clear: Putin's reign isn't that tight and secure as he sells it, if 25k mercenaries can endanger it. He showed weakness by running from Moscow, the complete opposite of Zelenskyy. The people's reactions in Rostov showed, that a coup is really possible in Russia. They don't love Putin, they love strength. So they will support whoever shows strength on the street. This could be dangeous for Putin going into the future.
But although it could have been better, it still helped Ukraine. Every instability inside Russia weakens it on the battlefield. Their morale and logistics were reduced to nearly zero for 2 days, it'll start slowly again and will delay much. Also this topic will be present for Russian soldiers for weeks to come and that won't help their already low morale. Those Wagner forces who have to sign contracts with the MoD will be 1. unhappy and 2. lose their efficiency.
Let's see how this all develops on the battlefield.
Last edited:
It's a very weird move for him to have done this then cut a deal which on paper looks like he will be killed/have next to nothing
They did, the army just didn't want to fight Wagner and let them pass. The air force attacked them, but lost at least 8 aircrafts (mostly helicopters) during that operation, and don't forget that bombing the Wagner column meant bombing the M4 which was full of civilians in the same area.
Those losses against Wagner mean this was the worst day for the air force in the whole war!
I know, but it all felt underwhelming. There wasn't a massive presense of troops, just here and there some roadblocks. There have to be way more soldiers left around Moscow and the western front, than what we saw in the videos. Yes, there was some attacks from the air on the column, but this also felt pretty underwhelming. Like some airforce officers acted on their own instead of being instructed from the Kremlin. Putin's bomberfleet is still untouched and you'd expect like dozens of bombers carpet bomb and pound that column to dust instead of some lonely helicopters, no? So were they waiting until the last moment before Moscow to engage or what was the plan?
I think they couldn't risk letting Wagner inside Moscow because of the uncertainty, that important people will start to switch sides. With that knowledge, I expected a much stronger answer from Russian forces. But maybe I'm overestimating them, they are rotten to the core and really held back on their own.
This is the main take away from yesterday. The idea of Putin being this powerfull leader that can control the whole country with force was shattered yesterday, Prigozhin showed every one in Russia that it is possible to stand up to him using force and get away with it. I think yesterday was the begining of the end for Putin.
All the right questions there but who will we believe when this starts to untangle. Yet another question.
I woke up and went......ahhhhhhhhh I get it. Here is my theory. Russia are losing in Ukraine. The Russians moved the nukes to Belarus. They can't use them though because Nato will flatten them. So they come up with this coup plan. Wagner will exile in Belarus. It will be quiet for a while. Then they will start kicking off again. Saying they were betrayed etc. Then they will take over the nuke site and bomb Ukraine. Not a huge nuke. Just a tactical one to end the war. Russia will say not us. Those terrorists. They will go in and flatten them. Loose 25 thousand mostly convicts but much less than a prolonged war with Ukraine. Even if the West knows its sus what can they do with no proof? Full out war on Russia based on a theory?
This coup is all is too dodgy. There is something else at play
This coup is all is too dodgy. There is something else at play
Last edited:
A lot of people using the word Toast.
Thanks Bill Barr
Thanks Bill Barr
No. You can't carpet bomb against working air defenses, the result would be losing your strategic bomber fleet.
Good questions. There was a raid on Wagner offices in St Petersburg in which money was discovered. That would suggest FSB activity, who knows what else went on behind the scenes? But the biggest question is; where is Putin now? Did he concede something significant to other elements in the power game? As you say, more will emerge for sure…
I can see where you're coming from with the theory.
Prigozhin being exported to somewhere where Russia has just transported tactical nukes and where Russian troops are stationed shouts like Belarus could get involved, and like you said, means Russia can wipe their hands clean of any wrong doing.
Stretching it a bit but not unplausible.
But one thing I do completely agree with is that something else is at play - that coup stopped way too soon and easy
I wouldn't say this was a coup. Rob Lee, one of the best experts on this war, calls it a mutiny with the (likely) aim of keeping Wagner independent from the MoD.
This legislation was reported at the time and while some Twitter circles were making the apparant Wagner connection, it didn't seem to get that much coverage in prominent media channels.
Now we know what they did yesterday. Holding against invisible enemys like always 
Now we know what they did yesterday. Holding against invisible enemys like always
So much cringe here.