Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

I don't disagree on principle, but this particular guy is a proven bullshitter. Earlier in the war he suggested Kyiv was about to be nuclear bombed. And not in a "I'm speculating" manner, in a "the planes are being fueled right now" manner. I don't mind if people give their own comments, but there's absolutely no line of separation between the actual information and this guy's wild (and usually completely unfounded) speculation. It's impossible for someone who reads any of his tweets in this thread to know the difference.

Like the tweet @wr8_utd posted just now, about FSB mass raids. Is that speculation or credible information? We have no way of knowing. He could just have said "reports on Telegram that FSB is . . .".

Whether its speculation or credible is for the readers to decide. He also posts a lot of audio/video, which can't be argued as BS, just as many of the other accounts post the same thing.
 
Either there’s another twist in the tail, or they’re all a bunch of massive idiots who have lost a lot of credibility over the last 48 hours.
 
Okay, but that's an impossible task. You're making it harder for people who use the Caf for information to be informed.

A likelier scenario is you're doing that by derailing the thread by arguing about this instead of tuning it out, in lieu of rarely making any substantive comments about the thread topic itself. If you don't like guy's tweets, ignore them and jog on.
 
Anyway, even if there were "security guarantees", who would trust Putin's "guarantees" anyway, i know Prigozhin is an evil man, but is he also dumb?

Yeah, but Prigozhin has a massive force of well trained soldiers who he has just demonstrated are loyal to him alone. Putin can rid himself of other officials within his own government because others/their replacements will fall in line. Prigozhin has a private army holding significant Russian interests in not only Ukraine but also the Middle East and Africa. Not saying Putin won't turn against him eventually, but Prigozhin holds cards others don't. Putin created a monster
 
Putin doesn't need a justification to remove leadership he has done it plenty of times before. This whole thing made him look very weak.

You're right, but if you think further, could it be an Erdogan 2.0, just a show for a cleansing operation? Threatening a coup to see who is loyal to him? Those who stayed silent throughout the day, or even left Moscow will have a bad time going forward. Or am I reading too much into it?
If it wasn't planned by Putin, I just don't see how Prigozhin and his Wagners will walk away with this. Then he is a dead man walking and he must know it. So why does he accept a truce?
 
A sensible protocol isn't meant to look good but be efficient and safe.
Yeah would have been sensible for Zelensky to evacuate to Lviv. But sometimes sense needs to get thrown out of the window when you are a leader in critical situation for your country, and your job is to inspire your people.
 
I'm just an idiot bystander but I feel like this has setup written all over it. Russia has never been able to lie convincingly.
 
I remember reading an article some months ago about Prigozhin being a genuine threat to Putin's power. I remember reading the article and not understanding how someone who seems to rely on Putin entirely for his power and influence could then turn on Putin.

It's interesting looking back on how prophetic that article was. Obviously there wasn't a coup but Putin really has created a monster in his own inner circle.
 
A likelier scenario is you're doing that by derailing the thread by arguing about this instead of tuning it out, in lieu of rarely making any substantive comments about the thread topic itself. If you don't like guy's tweets, ignore them and jog on.

Deleting my response and giving me a warning, what a mature way to handle criticism by a senior figure on the site.
 
prigozhin must know he'll need to stay away from windows and stairs from now on till the end of his life, surely? Completing the coup is his only way out.
 
Yeah would have been sensible for Zelensky to evacuate to Lviv. But sometimes sense needs to get thrown out of the window when you are a leader in critical situation for your country, and your job is to inspire your people.

It's a totally different situation. Ukraine were at war with a foreign enemy, here Putin has to look at an insider, he isn't in a situation where he need or can inspire anyone.
 
prigozhin must know he'll need to stay away from windows and stairs from now on till the end of his life, surely? Completing the coup is his only way out.

Trusting Putin is like trusting Gollum, he will backstab you when the opportunity is right.
 
I'm just an idiot bystander but I feel like this has setup written all over it. Russia has never been able to lie convincingly.
What's the plan then? Make Putin and the Russian army look weak?
Question the authority of the military leadership? Create further divides by making people pick sides?
 
It's a totally different situation. Ukraine were at war with a foreign enemy, here Putin has to look at an insider, he isn't in a situation where he need or can inspire anyone.
Not the same inspiration, but his whole.image is projecting strength . So looking a coward is not that great for him. Also, according to his spokesperson he didn't evacuate. So it means that for them that image is important.
 
Very possible given that he was going for a coup by not claiming he was going for a coup, so this could also be a fake. The next 12 hours will be telling.
In some way, Prigozhin managed to come close to Moscow without spelling much blood, and it's hard to imagine an all-out conflict between the Wagners and the Russian army, especially inside Moscow. Imagine the damages to their capital. Prigozchin has made his point clear, and it's yet to see what happens to Shoigu and Gerasimov, i.e. Putin may have agreed to start an investigation on whether the Wagners were shelled or not. It is possible that this could have happened without Putin's knowledge.
 
So, no more bloodshed in Russia, just in Ukraine.
Putin's position weakened massively both with his people and elsewhere.

Surely this will help Ukraine overall. You can get to the outskirts of Moscow without bloodshed.
 
What's the plan then? Make Putin and the Russian army look weak?
Question the authority of the military leadership? Create further divides by making people pick sides?

The amount of embarrassment its caused Putin suggests it wasn't staged. Particularly given that Prigozhin has been moaning about Shoigu for months.
 
I don't really understand Prigozhin's thought process in accepting this deal. His primary aim seems to have been to prevent Wagner from being absorbed into the MOD and his power/influence eliminated. He's supposedly accomplished that, but he's also abandoned all of the tactical advantages he had in this scenario along with putting a huge target on his bald head. He's moving from a place where Putin and Shoigu can't attack him without jeopardizing the broader war back to the front lines where he could catch an errant missile.

The only way for Putin to save face and prevent a repeat is to kill him, which I imagine could happen soon.
 
If that's true, then it was all Putin's and Prigozhin's show to get rid of Shoigu and Gerasimov. But it's so stupidly obvious that I don't believe it yet.

So you think they couldn't come up with a better scenario than one where Putin looks weak, soldiers die and helicopters get shot down, moscow appears under attack and prigozhin signed his own death warrant, huh?
 
I don't really understand Prigozhin's thought process in accepting this deal. His primary aim seems to have been to prevent Wagner from being absorbed into the MOD and his power/influence eliminated. He's supposedly accomplished that, but he's also abandoned all of the tactical advantages he had in this scenario along with putting a huge target on his bald head. He's moving from a place where Putin and Shoigu can't attack him without jeopardizing the broader war back to the front lines where he could catch an errant missile.

The only way for Putin to save face and prevent a repeat is to kill him, which I imagine could happen soon.

One possibility is that he realized he was in over his head by going to Moscow and was looking for an off ramp or pause, so he could either get out of this (not likely) or reassess what his next move is. Either case, its not going to end well for him.
 
Assuming this isn't a false flag, which i don't think it is, for a number of reasons.

NATO sending in the fighter jets to destroy Russian positions in Ukraine, what response would that trigger from Russia? They just looked terribly weak dealing with a private army.
 
Assuming this isn't a false flag, which i don't think it is, for a number of reasons.

NATO sending in the fighter jets to destroy Russian positions in Ukraine, what response would that trigger from Russia? They just looked terribly weak dealing with a private army.

The small chance that Russia would respond with a tactical nuke means that will never happen.
 
What's the plan then? Make Putin and the Russian army look weak?
Question the authority of the military leadership? Create further divides by making people pick sides?

I have no idea at all, I’ve just come to instinctively doubt whatever the official version of events from Russia is!
 
The guarantees are supposed to be about not dismantling Wagner, right?