Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

It's quiet interesting that this is happening in Rostov on Don, the city is the major supply point for a large part of the Russian troops inside Ukraine and if Wagner where to take control of the city they would be able to hold a large part of the Russian forces in Ukraine hostage.
 
Even if it doesn’t end in civil war proper, it’s surely now over for Prgozhin and Wagner troops. This strategic reserve is now gone for russian army, and it will make Ukraine’s life much easier on the frontlines. Though I believe there’s a real chance the coup will materialize.
 

I read something a while back that a lot of Russia s special forces, especially the infamous blue stripe shirt wearing Spetnatz branch' strength has been greatly exaggerated by Moscow for years. That what you see in parades are often guys recruited to just look intimidating but don't hold a candle to many of the mercs like Wagner. Whether that's true or not I obviously don't know for sure, but it seems highly likely there is a lot of ineptness in those ranks.
 
So what are we hoping for exactly? Probably a defeat of Prighozin, preferably with huge losses on both sides, because he could escalate the war (e. g. with nukes)?
 

Also, the word is that during the first clashes of Wagner with Rosgvardia in the border area between Crimea and Rostov, the later forces have fled leaving behind the weapons and ifvs. Wagner is on the move.
 
So what are we hoping for exactly? Probably a defeat of Prighozin, preferably with huge losses on both sides, because he could escalate the war (e. g. with nukes)?
He doesn't have any nukes with the possible exception of a bomb able to be transported by a man, like a backpack or suitcase nuke.

Would highly, highly doubt that they had one of those.
 
I go offline for a few hours for once and Russia starts a bloody civil war in the meantime. figures.
 
Yes, all of it. But it's quite difficult to get information about their supply situation.
Wasn't he crying about not having enough supplies for his troops in the UA just a few weeks ago? How exactly would he get any of those supplies without the help of the MOD there now?
 
I read something a while back that a lot of Russia s special forces, especially the infamous blue stripe shirt wearing Spetnatz branch' strength has been greatly exaggerated by Moscow for years. That what you see in parades are often guys recruited to just look intimidating but don't hold a candle to many of the mercs like Wagner. Whether that's true or not I obviously don't know for sure, but it seems highly likely there is a lot of ineptness in those ranks.
Thats the airborn forces or the VDV as they are called. Before the war they where seen as an elite force in the Russian armed forces and they where the ones who where supposed to capture the Hostomel airport outside Kiev in the first days of the war.
 
Wasn't he crying about not having enough supplies for his troops in the UA just a few weeks ago? How exactly would he get any of those supplies without the help of the MOD there now?
Yes he was, but it was still enough to take Bakhmut, although at higher losses than necessary.

But we just don't know now what he needs for the coup, how many ressources he has and most importantly how much support he has in the regular army. That could give him the supplies he needs.
 
He doesn't have any nukes with the possible exception of a bomb able to be transported by a man, like a backpack or suitcase nuke.

Would highly, highly doubt that they had one of those.

I meant if his insurrection is was successful and he really replaces Putin. If he's more ruthless and unpredictable than him, that's not really something desirable. Right now it is pretty clear that Putin never wanted to use nukes and face the West's response but if Prigozhin is that reckless..
 
Just more steady progress really.

Reportedly Russia's first main defensive line breached in the south and an area of the Donbas now back in Ukraine's hands for the first time since 2014.

You mean Robotyne?

If the NYT or CNN had cited a similar small win in favour of Russia as evidence of the counter offensive failing, you would have called that Russian propaganda, right?
 
So what are we hoping for exactly? Probably a defeat of Prighozin, preferably with huge losses on both sides, because he could escalate the war (e. g. with nukes)?
The worst that can happen, is that Putin turns on his own military leadership (he can't possibly be happy with them anyway), and let Prigozhin lead the war against Ukraine. Maybe not so likely anyway, after hearing Prigozhin questioning the war itself.
 
Yes he was, but it was still enough to take Bakhmut, although at higher losses than necessary.

But we just don't know now what he needs for the coup, how many ressources he has and most importantly how much support he has in the regular army. That could give him the supplies he needs.
Yeah. There are so many questions that we don't have answers for now. As I said earlier, this looks like an insane move from a mad guy.
 
Considering how hostile Prgozhin has been for months and he's still alive, could this be a plan from Russia to get out of the war pretending it's to do with internal politics rather than their army being slowly defeated?