Putin and Russia in Syria

Danny1982 said:
It is actually the point.

1- If they were after protecting their airspace they wouldn't have shot it outside their airspace, regardless of whether it entered their airspace for a few seconds or not. They were clearly set on hitting a Russian jet regardless of the circumstances, they hoped to have the "inside my space!" excuse, but they were busted. There is absolutely no reason for them to follow the Russian jet into Syria (even if it "entered their space for a few seconds") other than deliberately trying to destroy a Russian jet, and not trying to "protect their airspace".

2- Hitting it inside Syria does not only prove that they invaded Syria's airspace, but also committed an act of aggression inside Syria's airspace. Now if Erdogan thinks it's unforgivable to enter his airspace even for a few seconds, how about entering Syria's airspace and shooting an aircraft inside it?

3- It is clearly a crucial point which is why Erdogan is still insisting they shot it inside Turkey's airspace, even though his allies have already admitted it was shot in Syria's airspace.

In fact he got so desperate trying to "prove" they hit it in Turkey's airspace, that he resorted to this kind of "evidence"...

:lol:

4- The fact that it was hit inside Syria proves that Erdogan is lying, and actually throws a lot of doubt into Erdogan's whole story of "invaded my space for 17 seconds!", even though the remaining details are less important. What's important is that the only proof we have of a jet invading the airspace of another country, and actually committing an act of aggression in the airspace of another country, proves that Turkey was actually the aggressor.
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Spot on.
 
I suppose Putin has learned his lesson to take Erdogan's airspace bluster a bit more seriously.
 
Raoul said:
Let's hope he doesn't attempt to get even by shooting at a Turkish jet patrolling its own airspace.
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I doubt he will... The first Turkish plane to bomb the Kurds... Well that he may obliterate and I cant see too many nato members being upset at the Kurds being protected (except turkey of course who will go ape sh!t)
 
Raoul said:
Let's hope he doesn't attempt to get even by shooting at a Turkish jet patrolling its own airspace.
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No need to and I don't think he'll do that. Turkish jets have invaded the Syrian airspace far far more often than the Russian jets have "invaded the Turkish airspace", even if we believed everything Turkey says in that regard. So Putin won't need to hit the Turkish jets inside Turkey. He'll just wait for them to enter Syria again, and get even. If they don't then at least he made sure Erdogan has learned his lesson.

It was a stupid move by Erdogan imo, because the precedent he set with the "zero tolerance in my airspace!" will actually hurt him more than Russia.
 
Well...

Turkish military says did not know downed jet was Russian
Istanbul (AFP) - Turkey's military said Wednesday it did not know the warplane it downed on the Syrian border was Russian and that it was ready for "all kinds of cooperation" with the Russian military authorities following the incident.

In a statement issued after tension surged between Ankara and Moscow and Turkey's NATO allies appealed for calm, the Turkish armed forces also said they had made significant efforts to find and rescue the pilots after the jet was shot down.

The surviving pilot of the Su-24 bomber said earlier that no warning had been given in the incident Tuesday and the aircraft did not violate the Turkish air space, although Turkey insists that it gave 10 warnings in five minutes.

"The nationality of the plane was not known... and the rules of engagement were automatically used," the Turkish military said in its statement.

It added that had invited Russian defence and military attaches to its Ankara headquarters to explain the incident.

It also informed Moscow's military authorities of its readiness for "all kinds of cooperation," the statement added.
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http://news.yahoo.com/turkish-milit...vbG8DZ3ExBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDQjEzMjRfMQRzZWMDc2M-

What a stupid decision that was.
 
Danny1982 said:
It is actually the point.

1- If they were after protecting their airspace they wouldn't have shot it outside their airspace, regardless of whether it entered their airspace for a few seconds or not. They were clearly set on hitting a Russian jet regardless of the circumstances, they hoped to have the "inside my space!" excuse, but they were busted. There is absolutely no reason for them to follow the Russian jet into Syria (even if it "entered their space for a few seconds") other than deliberately trying to destroy a Russian jet, and not trying to "protect their airspace".

2- Hitting it inside Syria does not only prove that they invaded Syria's airspace, but also committed an act of aggression inside Syria's airspace. Now if Erdogan thinks it's unforgivable to enter his airspace even for a few seconds, how about entering Syria's airspace and shooting an aircraft inside it?

3- It is clearly a crucial point which is why Erdogan is still insisting they shot it inside Turkey's airspace, even though his allies have already admitted it was shot in Syria's airspace.

In fact he got so desperate trying to "prove" they hit it in Turkey's airspace, that he resorted to this kind of "evidence"...

:lol:

4- The fact that it was hit inside Syria proves that Erdogan is lying, and actually throws a lot of doubt into Erdogan's whole story of "invaded my space for 17 seconds!", even though the remaining details are less important. What's important is that the only proof we have of a jet invading the airspace of another country, and actually committing an act of aggression in the airspace of another country, proves that Turkey was actually the aggressor.
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Nah, thats literally all irrelevant. Turkey believed a plane it had warned not to enter its airspace, from a nation it had repeatedly warned not to violate its airspace, violated its airspace. They therefore took the decision to shoot it down. Where it ended up has nothing to do with it, as does the fact that it subsequently left Turkish airspace, what would be interesting is to know whether the missile that downed the plane was launched during the planes incursion into Turkish airspace, if the missile was fired from the time the plane was within Turkey's airspace but didn't hit the plane until after it left is that not interesting?

Other points are just a bit odd. It proves Erdogan is lying because he's defending the decision? How about it proves Russia is lying when pretty much everyone disagrees with their version of the flight path? And the stuff about Syrian airspace is just completely unrelated. No one is under the impression Turkey's actions where because of a general belief in the sacrality of air-space, they simple got pissed off with Russia ignoring theirs.

Regardless of whether Turkey was right to do what it did or not I have no sympathy for Russia in this situation, they've repeatedly been told not to violate other countries airspace and have got burnt this time.

So yeah, the general point is that where the plane actually got hit has nothing whatsoever to do with the actual debate.
 
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Davutoglu now saying that he personally gave the order to shoot the plane, while also saying that Russia is a friendly state. And saying that they have to defend their airspace.
 
Danny1982 said:
Well...

Turkish military says did not know downed jet was Russian


http://news.yahoo.com/turkish-milit...vbG8DZ3ExBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDQjEzMjRfMQRzZWMDc2M-

What a stupid decision that was.
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Not stupid at all actually. It was always going to happen.

I would be extremely surprised if Erdogan didn't have the green light from Obama to do so in case Russia continues violating their aispace. While this is just a pretext, we know where the problem is. Everyone is backing different horses in Syria, and Putin has been trying to show that he has the biggest dick of them all by trying to intimidate others.

I think it backfired for him, but we'll see how things go.
 
With Turkey and Egypt off the table for Russian vacationers, I guess they'll just have to keep vacationing in eastern Ukraine. :nervous:
 
Traub said:
Out of curiosity, how and why is he elected? Genuine question.
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For various reasons:

1) While the vast majority of young and progressive Turks mostly based in the big cities despise him, he does boast considerable support in Turkey's rural areas which are largely Islamic and conservative

2) Manipulation of the media - Erdogan has been notorious for leveraging pro-AKP media and state-run outlets while literally attacking dissenting papers and journalists who 'suddenly' stop producing anti-Erdogan pieces or get arrested under the false pretenses of 'anti-terror' legislation passed by his party. In election campaigns this results in him having a disproportionally larger coverage than his rivals would. Then there's the propaganda shamelessly propagated by his party and enforced media, which leads me onto....

3) His politics of fear - Erdogan has mastered this very art. He shamelessly scapegoats groups such as Kurds and manipulates tragic events such as terrorist attacks in his favour, warning the electorate as to the alleged macabre alternative should his party no longer restore a majority. Conveniently for him, the Ankara bombings came at a crucial time as he was able to use that as a means to scare the public into restoring his party's majority in the elections that shortly followed, it worked.

He's essentially been consolidating his grip on power, one arrest and legislation at a time. Everyone likes to talk about Putin, but he's essentially Europe's other Putin albeit with a nasty Islamist streak.
 
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Revan said:
Davutoglu now saying that he personally gave the order to shoot the plane, while also saying that Russia is a friendly state. And saying that they have to defend their airspace.
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Davutoglu is trying to cover his ass with this 'Russia is our friends' rhetroic. The Turks have created a mess of epic proportions and they know it, that's why they're desperately trying to weasel their way out of this one.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sultan Erdogan told Davutoglu to take the hit for this one, its not as if the feckin Prime Minister of Turkey isn't dispensable for him :lol:
 
Danny1982 said:
No need to and I don't think he'll do that. Turkish jets have invaded the Syrian airspace far far more often than the Russian jets have "invaded the Turkish airspace", even if we believed everything Turkey says in that regard. So Putin won't need to hit the Turkish jets inside Turkey. He'll just wait for them to enter Syria again, and get even. If they don't then at least he made sure Erdogan has learned his lesson.

It was a stupid move by Erdogan imo, because the precedent he set with the "zero tolerance in my airspace!" will actually hurt him more than Russia.
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Except Syria is not Russian air space so Russia has not real complaint in that case.
 
JustAFan said:
Except Syria is not Russian air space so Russia has not real complaint in that case.
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Russia has been invited to use Syria's airspace for military operations, you can't say the same for Turkey who seem to have taken up the hobby of violating all their neighbours' respective air spaces and then have the audacity to call the kettle black.
 
Kaos said:
Davutoglu is trying to cover his ass with this 'Russia is our friends' rhetroic. The Turks have created a mess of epic proportions and they know it, that's why they're desperately trying to weasel their way out of this one.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sultan Erdogan told Davutoglu to take the hit for this one, its not as if the feckin Prime Minister of Turkey isn't dispensable for him :lol:
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Vezir Davutoglu isn't dispensable IMO. They could have sacrificed the minister of defense if someone needed to be sacrificed.

My point is that I am not sure that this was just a feck up. More they were waiting for it, which means that surely there might have been some coordination with US. Russia taking the regime in Syria isn't what both US/Turkey want, and Russia was being quite aggressive.

In long term it won't change nothing, and surely they'll continue doing business with each other. The only things that might change is that Russia will shoot their planes if they go to Syria. That, and bombing Turkmen in Syria even more. Read today that they apprentely bombed some Turkish vecicles which were sending there some humanitary aid. Or maybe just propaganda.

It is very interesting though, that you cannot find more similar leaders than Tsar Putin and Sultan Erdogan. And now they don't like each other anymore.
 
Kaos said:
Russia has been invited to use Syria's airspace for military operations, you can't say the same for Turkey who seem to have taken up the hobby of violating all their neighbours' respective air spaces and then have the audacity to call the kettle black.
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Bit of a hollow invitation seeing Assads power has been diminishing more and more as the days have gone by. Also Turkey have thrown their hat in the opposition rebels corner since the start, so there's that.
 
Revan said:
Not stupid at all actually. It was always going to happen.

I would be extremely surprised if Erdogan didn't have the green light from Obama to do so in case Russia continues violating their aispace. While this is just a pretext, we know where the problem is. Everyone is backing different horses in Syria, and Putin has been trying to show that he has the biggest dick of them all by trying to intimidate others.

I think it backfired for him, but we'll see how things go.
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I'd be very surprised if Obama greenlighted this. He's not stupid like the other GOP hawks so I can imagine he would have preferred to have avoided an international incident.

I wager the Turks did it on their own accord since they expected they could simply hide behind the protection of NATO, now they realise how they've fecked up hence the back peddling.
 
Revan said:
It is very interesting though, that you cannot find more similar leaders than Tsar Putin and Sultan Erdogan. And now they don't like each other anymore.
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Putin, Erdogan, Netanyahu and Modi all share a lot in common IMO.
 
Kaos said:
I'd be very surprised if Obama greenlighted this. He's not stupid like the other GOP hawks so I can imagine he would have preferred to have avoided an international incident.

I wager the Turks did it on their own accord since they expected they could simply hide behind the protection of NATO, now they realise how they've fecked up hence the back peddling.
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Obama said that day - even before knowing the details - that Turkey has the right of defending their airspace.

So, I guess there might have been some discussion in October what to do, if Russians decide to violate Turkey's airspace again. The real reason is that Russia is bombing the rebels which US and Turkey is supporting. And that while ultimate's goal of Putin is to keep Assad (or someone of his clan) in power, US doesn't like that. With Russia becoming more and more aggressive, I guess this incident might have been planned.
 
LeChuck said:
Bit of a hollow invitation seeing Assads power has been diminishing more and more as the days have gone by. Also Turkey have thrown their hat in the opposition rebels corner since the start, so there's that.
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Regardless of what you think Syria is still a sovereign nation, so Russia's official invitation to utilise Syrian airspace still takes precedence over the objections of a few Islamist nutters who demand otherwise.
 
2cents said:
Putin, Erdogan, Netanyahu and Modi all share a lot in common IMO.
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I don't know much for Modi, so cannot comment for him.

Netanyahu is a twat, but a different type of twat. He isn't planning to make a zone of influence, like Putin and Erdogan are. He also isn't a dictator (I mean he lost elections in the past).
 
Revan said:
Obama said that day - even before knowing the details - that Turkey has the right of defending their airspace.

So, I guess there might have been some discussion in October what to do, if Russians decide to violate Turkey's airspace again. The real reason is that Russia is bombing the rebels which US and Turkey is supporting. And that while ultimate's goal of Putin is to keep Assad (or someone of his clan) in power, US doesn't like that. With Russia becoming more and more aggressive, I guess this incident might have been planned.
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Well Obama isn't exactly going to throw a NATO ally under the bus, so I'm not surprised that he's come out in support of this action. Though I'd imagine he's privately seething at the stupidity of the Turks. Something tells me he had a less than friendly chat with his Sultan buddy shortly after.
 
Kaos said:
Well Obama isn't exactly going to throw a NATO ally under the bus, so I'm not surprised that he's come out in support of this action. Though I'd imagine he's privately seething at the stupidity of the Turks. Something tells me he had a less than friendly chat with his Sultan buddy shortly after.
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He could have been less supportive.

Well, Turkey got these type of planes, only last month - after Russia entered in their airspace. There was only a reason to get them.

Anyway, Russia cannot afford war. Or even to just cut the economical ties with Turkey. The US/EU sanctions have crippled their economy and while they act the tough guy, in the end, they need to sell gas to Turkey.
 
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Revan said:
He could have been more supportive.

Well, Turkey got these type of planes, only last month - after Russia entered in their airspace. There was only a reason to get them.

Anyway, Russia cannot afford war. Or even to just cut the economical ties with Turkey. The US/EU sanctions have crippled their economy and while they act the tough guy, in the end, they need to sell gas to Turkey.
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I don't think they'll cut the gas or anything similarly drastic. At worst they'll magically make a few anti-air weapons and heavy munitions appear in Kurdish militia positions, or they'll have a 'whoops' moment of shooting down a Turkish plane in Syrian airspace in retaliation.
 
Kaos said:
I don't think they'll cut the gas or anything similarly drastic. At worst they'll magically make a few anti-air weapons and heavy munitions appear in Kurdish militia positions, or they'll have a 'whoops' moment of shooting down a Turkish plane in Syrian airspace in retaliation.
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Yep. The second is more likely that the first though. While the first sounds great, in the end, Russia wants Assad in power (and so protect their interests in Syria), not to divide Syria into states.

Lavrov already said that they don't want war, neither to cut the economical deals. Turkey imports around 25 billion dollars of goods from Russia, a large sum of money to cut. Especially in a crisis.

Btw, has Russia any warplane which can defeat F-16? I am not really sure that they have.
 
Revan said:
Not stupid at all actually. It was always going to happen.

I would be extremely surprised if Erdogan didn't have the green light from Obama to do so in case Russia continues violating their aispace. While this is just a pretext, we know where the problem is. Everyone is backing different horses in Syria, and Putin has been trying to show that he has the biggest dick of them all by trying to intimidate others.

I think it backfired for him, but we'll see how things go.
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Backfired how? Because he lost a fighter jet? Russia is bombing Turkey's allies (Al-Nusra and co) harder than ever today, and they're doing that while being ready to shoot any jet that poses a danger for the Russian jets. The decision to deploy the S-300 and S-400 hasn't been cancelled yet, and even those words don't sound like coming from one with a "bigger d*ck".

We'll still have to wait and see, but I have a feeling this will have an opposite effect to the one intended in the first place. I don't think Russia will hit Turkey's allies any less now, and I actually do think that it's Turkey who will have to be careful from now on during their adventures inside Syria.

Also you can stop talking about the "airspace violations". We all know it has nothing to do with airspace violations. Turkey hit the jets because its interests are being hit hard in Syria (ISIS' oil and their allies on the ground).
 
Revan said:
Yep. The second is more likely that the first though. While the first sounds great, in the end, Russia wants Assad in power (and so protect their interests in Syria), not to divide Syria into states.

Lavrov already said that they don't want war, neither to cut the economical deals. Turkey imports around 25 billion dollars of goods from Russia, a large sum of money to cut. Especially in a crisis.

Btw, has Russia any warplane which can defeat F-16? I am not really sure that they have.
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I'm not really a military expert so perhaps one of the armchair generals here can fill in, but from what I understand the F16 would likely better a Sukhoi in a dogfight, but I'd also imagine it depends largely on pilot training and skill.
 
Kaos said:
Well Obama isn't exactly going to throw a NATO ally under the bus, so I'm not surprised that he's come out in support of this action. Though I'd imagine he's privately seething at the stupidity of the Turks. Something tells me he had a less than friendly chat with his Sultan buddy shortly after.
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The US wouldn't have confirmed the Russian jet was hit inside Syria if it was their idea imo.
 
Danny1982 said:
Backfired how? Because he lost a fighter jet? Russia is bombing Turkey's allies (Al-Nusra and co) harder than ever today, and they're doing that while being ready to shoot any jet that poses a danger for the Russian jets. The decision to deploy the S-300 and S-400 hasn't been cancelled yet, and even those words don't sound like coming from one with a "bigger d*ck".

We'll still have to wait and see, but I have a feeling this will have an opposite effect to the one intended in the first place. I don't think Russia will hit Turkey's allies any less now, and I actually do think that it's Turkey who will have to be careful from now on during their adventures inside Syria.

Also you can stop talking about the "airspace violations". We all know it has nothing to do with airspace violations. Turkey hit the jets because its interests are being hit hard in Syria (ISIS' oil and their allies on the ground).
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Agree with your last point. I even said it before. However, Russia gives a good justification to Turkey considering that they entered their airspace. Which had no reason at all at happening.

Russia was bombing the rebels anyway/ Not sure what it means harder, considering that they are practically destroying them.

I agree that Turkey might need to be careful the next time they decide to bomb Kurds though. If Russia can shoot Turkey's planes in Syria, they will likely do that.

The important question is, what will happen if some Russian pilot decides to tempt the fate and cross the border in the near future. That would be interesting.
 
Kaos said:
I'm not really a military expert so perhaps one of the armchair generals here can fill in, but from what I understand the F16 would likely better a Sukhoi in a dogfight, but I'd also imagine it depends largely on pilot training and skill.
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Yep, I think so too. With around as good pilotes, F-16 should win.

Russia have really slipped when it comes to military. No plane of them would be able to go near a F-22 or F-35.
 
Revan said:
Agree with your last point. I even said it before. However, Russia gives a good justification to Turkey considering that they entered their airspace. Which had no reason at all at happening.

Russia was bombing the rebels anyway/ Not sure what it means harder, considering that they are practically destroying them.

I agree that Turkey might need to be careful the next time they decide to bomb Kurds though. If Russia can shoot Turkey's planes in Syria, they will likely do that.

The important question is, what will happen if some Russian pilot decides to tempt the fate and cross the border in the near future. That would be interesting.
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The thing is the Russian jets don't really need to cross the border, and they can certainly avoid that if it happened in the past, or they can simply send some fighters for protection. It's actually Turkey that needs to cross the border from time to time, because the action is happening in Syria.
 
Danny1982 said:
The US wouldn't have confirmed the Russian jet was hit inside Syria if it was their idea imo.
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Yeah this was my thinking too. The US official speaking on anonymity kinda confirms it for me.

Sounded like a subtle 'feck you, don't pull that stupid shit again' message to the Turks, while absolving themselves of any involvement.
 
Revan said:
I don't know much for Modi, so cannot comment for him.

Netanyahu is a twat, but a different type of twat. He isn't planning to make a zone of influence, like Putin and Erdogan are. He also isn't a dictator (I mean he lost elections in the past).
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Yeah obviously they're all operating in different systems and we know least about Modi yet. But in their countries they've all capitalized on and are coming to represent the rise of this right-wing religious-nationalism and desire for a tough strongman which seems to be sweeping much of the world, and it's difficult to see any of the first three losing an election (I believe Putin would easily win a free election in Russia; I'll reserve judgement on Modi til the next round).
 
JustAFan said:
Except Syria is not Russian air space so Russia has not real complaint in that case.
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Russia is operating in the area with permission from the Syrian government, and after this incident Russia will have every right to deem Turkish jets entering Syrian airspace as dangerous for its forces.

And Turkey of course have no right to violate Syria's airspace.
 
Revan said:
Yep, I think so too. With around as good pilotes, F-16 should win.

Russia have really slipped when it comes to military. No plane of them would be able to go near a F-22 or F-35.
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I wouldn't say they've slipped too much. Sure, much of their military equipment are Soviet relics, but their new T-50 stealth bombers, T-14 tanks and submarines are still pretty impressive. Granted, nothing as impressive as the kind of heat Uncle Sam packs these days, but certainly enough to make any other militaries shit themselves, the Turks included.
 
LeChuck said:
+ Sisi.
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I don't like Sisi, but he's not actively seeking to undermine neighbouring countries, nor is he a religious nutjob like the Brotherhood medieval mentalists before him.

He is a pathetic scrooge though, much like his idol Mubarak.
 
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