Putin and Russia in Syria

So, Putin is acting like the big man nobody can control again by siding with Assad and bombing the Syrian rebels, but also by infriging Turkish airspace on more than one occasion.

The west is infuriated, not least Turkey, of course, but you know they won't down a Russian MIG - too much fallout.

So what's Putin's game here? It can't simply be about defying the west surely? I wondered whether he's trying to cause another flood of migrants to make their way towards Europe ensuring that there will be a more pressing and immediate problem to focus on in the coming years than on Putin's Russia.

So, to revisit my first post, I got one "prediction" wrong, although Erdogan has now apologised for shooting the fighter down............but the 2nd point, about Putin ensuring Europe has more to worry about within it's own borders seems not entirely far fetched in the wake of the Leave vote which was for many about immigration (see Farage's disgraceful poster).
 
:lol: What an idiot.

Apparently they also offered compensation 'if necessary' to rebuild the relations, even though later they retracted a bit with "at this moment it's not on the table".

Presumably this also has much to do with Brexit and the impending instability in Europe which will see no chance of Turkey being admitted any time soon now as the EU tries to avoid a total implosion. He needs a new ally and saying sorry paves the way to perhaps finding what seemed not long ago to be an unlikely one.
 
Wonder if NATO will reserve similar condemnation for the Brits as they continue to train and arm the Saudi forces that have killed scores of civilians in Yemen. I won't hold my breath though.

We do have a Yemen thread i believe.

This is as much about the internal politics of Europe and NATO, particularly with this coming so soon after the EU's inconclusive talks on sanctions.
 
We do have a Yemen thread i believe.

This is as much about the internal politics of Europe and NATO, particularly with this coming so soon after the EU's inconclusive talks on sanctions.
This particular issue is more of a NATO problem than EU.
 
This particular issue is more of a NATO problem than EU.
Yeah this was my point. The assumption here is that the condemnation sources from a NATO member being complicit with an outside power allegedly committing crimes against civilians, whereas you can feasibly argue that another NATO power is doing the same with the Saudis in Yemen on a more direct capacity.
 
This particular issue is more of a NATO problem than EU.

Not if this decision is symptomatic of Spain's position more broadly, and its likely support of continued/further sanctions against Russia.


Yeah this was my point. The assumption here is that the condemnation sources from a NATO member being complicit with an outside power allegedly committing crimes against civilians, whereas you can feasibly argue that another NATO power is doing the same with the Saudis in Yemen on a more direct capacity.

The basis for your comparison is tenuous at best. Is Nato officially at odds with Saudi Arabia? Has the UK dispatched a naval task force to the region to engage in indiscriminate attacks against Yemeni civilians?

As it happens, i'd rather we weren't involved to the extent that we are presently, but i think you are reaching here. And your use of 'allegedly', suggest that you are prepared to look the other way when Syrian civilians are on the receiving end of Russian sorties.

As an aside...http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/10/14/inenglish/1476453870_656521.html
 
And your use of 'allegedly', suggest that you are prepared to look the other way when Syrian civilians are on the receiving end of Russian sorties.

Like the West has been looking the other way while their so-called moderates have been murdering the civilian population of western Aleppo?
 
Like the West has been looking the other way while their so-called moderates have been murdering the civilian population of western Aleppo?

This is when it all gets a bit tedious in the CE. This constant response to any mention of wrong doing by one side being "oh yeah well they other guy did it to" as if that makes it all okay then. It ends up coming across (no matter which side it comes from) as being more concerned about who is doing the killing then actually caring about the people who are being killed.

Not getting on a high horse here because I am sure I have done it also.

There used to a be a phrase "two wrongs don't make a right" it would be nice if it made a comeback.
 
I think that finally the russian ships won't refuel in Ceuta because They are going to be involved in Siria war :confused:.Strange because previously some ships were allowed to do it.What is the relation between Nato and what happens in Siria? If an american ship is involved in the attack can't we allow them either?
 
This is when it all gets a bit tedious in the CE. This constant response to any mention of wrong doing by one side being "oh yeah well they other guy did it to" as if that makes it all okay then. It ends up coming across (no matter which side it comes from) as being more concerned about who is doing the killing then actually caring about the people who are being killed.

Not getting on a high horse here because I am sure I have done it also.

There used to a be a phrase "two wrongs don't make a right" it would be nice if it made a comeback.
Oh yeah? Well, you did it first.
 
I think that finally the russian ships won't refuel in Ceuta because They are going to be involved in Siria war :confused:.Strange because previously some ships were allowed to do it.What is the relation between Nato and what happens in Siria? If an american ship is involved in the attack can't we allow them either?

I'd imagine it is a NATO position to not allow Russian ships to refuel for the purposes of supporting the Russian campaign in Syria. Frankly I don't know why their ships need to refuel in Spain when they could just sail to their port in Crimea.
 
I'd imagine it is a NATO position to not allow Russian ships to refuel for the purposes of supporting the Russian campaign in Syria. Frankly I don't know why their ships need to refuel in Spain when they could just sail to their port in Crimea.

Well, that wasn't so hard now, was it?
 
Thought I'd throw you a bone from time to time since it must be difficult being constantly reminded of being a thief.

Just like your clueless government, you live under the impression that everybody out there is waiting for an occasional bone from your table, so to speak. Times are changing pal, even if you refuse to accept it.
 
Just like your clueless government, you live under the impression that everybody out there is waiting for an occasional bone from your table, so to speak. Times are changing pal, even if you refuse to accept it.

Sounds like someone is a wee bit insecure. :)
 
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Could have still used the base without all this invasion nonsense. They were leasing or using it by treaty or something like that

They could have, but it wouldn't have helped Putin's efforts to distract his public from his own corruption and incompetence by using copious amounts of propaganda and nationalism to change the subject. If it was simply a matter of access to Sevastopol, the lease was already extended to 2042. BTW, you can pretty much superimpose the public distraction bit onto Syria as well. After the Ukrainian land theft had settled, Putin couldn't afford for the conversation to shift back onto his domestic shit show, so he whipped up another intervention in Syria to keep the nationalism and propaganda oriented on yet another foreign project. This is why we are likely to see a continuous series of Russian intervention in various places until Putin is gone and/or the Russian economy has a chance to rehabilitate itself out of the gutter, which at this point doesn't seem plausible until at least 2020.
 
So before obama leaves office his name would be remembered as the president who brought back the Cold War.
No. The Cold War won't be replicated anytime soon. Besides, you have to have relatively equal powers for that which isn't the case now.

He will be remembered for his red-line speach, and being out-maneuvered by Russia in the aftermath. And for letting Syria burn, though that was a 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' dilemma.
 
So before obama leaves office his name would be remembered as the president who brought back the Cold War.

You could make a good argument that the Cold War only took a 20 year break and has now been resumed, especially given that the current leader of Russia is a former KGB operative who is using propaganda, foreign agitation, and disinformation campaigns to stay in power.
 
You could make a good argument that the Cold War only took a 20 year break and has now been resumed, especially given that the current leader of Russia is a former KGB operative who is using propaganda, foreign agitation, and disinformation campaigns to stay in power.
Are you writing that with a straight face?
 
You could make a good argument that the Cold War only took a 20 year break and has now been resumed, especially given that the current leader of Russia is a former KGB operative who is using propaganda, foreign agitation, and disinformation campaigns to stay in power.

So a bit like the US then?
 
Feck off. I'm watching some youtube clip with stick figures.

To quote the findings of the scientific paper from Princeton so that you might perchance glance at it:

Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organised groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on US government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence.
...
The two professors came to this conclusion after reviewing answers to 1,779 survey questions asked between 1981 and 2002 on public policy issues. They broke the responses down by income level, and then determined how often certain income levels and organised interest groups saw their policy preferences enacted.

When a majority of citizens disagrees with economic elites and/or with organised interests, they generally lose. Moreover, because of the strong status quo bias built into the US political system, even when fairly large majorities of Americans favour policy change, they generally do not get it.
 
To quote the findings of the scientific paper from Princeton so that you might perchance glance at it:

So basically, elites in US society have more influence than non-elites. I don't think it takes an actual study to come to such an obvious conclusion. Elites in virtually all societies either run the show or have a strong influence on those who run it.
 
So basically, elites in US society have more influence than non-elites. I don't think it takes an actual study to come to such an obvious conclusion. Elites in virtually all societies either run the show or have a strong influence on those who run it.

No, it goes further than that, non-elites have no say in policy.

average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence
 
Wonder how this impacts russians. They will get steamrolled if they try to pick a fight with turks in their current state.

There was a tweet I saw a week or two back mentioning, that Russian army protects valuable mining sites and logistic routes for their import in Syria. That tap might soon close.

 
Wonder how this impacts russians. They will get steamrolled if they try to pick a fight with turks in their current state.

There was a tweet I saw a week or two back mentioning, that Russian army protects valuable mining sites and logistic routes for their import in Syria. That tap might soon close.


So far sounds like psychological warfare, but Putin getting taste of his own tactic could be a chess move allowing also Ukraine to win faster.
 
Wonder how this impacts russians. They will get steamrolled if they try to pick a fight with turks in their current state.

There was a tweet I saw a week or two back mentioning, that Russian army protects valuable mining sites and logistic routes for their import in Syria. That tap might soon close.



The Turks will be targeting the Kurdish forces in Syria, there’s little reason for them to come into conflict with the Russians there.
 
Wonder how this impacts russians. They will get steamrolled if they try to pick a fight with turks in their current state.

There was a tweet I saw a week or two back mentioning, that Russian army protects valuable mining sites and logistic routes for their import in Syria. That tap might soon close.



I assumed Turkey was going after the Kurds, is there some suggestion they are going to get in the way of Russians and their mercs?