Putin and Russia in Syria

Yeah what's the worst that could happen

If the Turks shoot down another plane the next thing to violate their airspace will be several hundred cruise missiles heading for Istanbul... And from their it's either a full on turkey vs Russia war
Or nato don't cut turkey adrift (though i think they might if they shoot first again) and then we get ww3
So yeah perhaps it would be better if a 17 second violation of airspace was raised (and hopefully solved) diplomatically in future
You're assuming that this isn't a culmination of infringements. They've been warned more than once not to fly in Turkish air zones. If they keep on disrespecting that, what do you expect?
 
You're assuming that this isn't a culmination of infringements. They've been warned more than once not to fly in Turkish air zones. If they keep on disrespecting that, what do you expect?
A Turkish fighter to intercept... Fly alongside Take photos and video... Release to the media and push through nato the Un the states and the eu for a diplomatic resolution would be my call rather than shoot them down
 
Yeah what's the worst that could happen

If the Turks shoot down another plane the next thing to violate their airspace will be several hundred cruise missiles heading for Istanbul... And from their it's either a full on turkey vs Russia war
Or nato don't cut turkey adrift (though i think they might if they shoot first again) and then we get ww3
So yeah perhaps it would be better if a 17 second violation of airspace was raised (and hopefully solved) diplomatically in future
Even better if Russia stops provocations and don't enter in Turkey's airspace.

I also think that Turkey can hit Moscow, if Russia decides to hit Istanbul. Then US has to decide between a world war and disintegration of NATO.

So, what I expect is Russian airplanes to not enter Turkey's airspace in the near future, Russia hitting one or two Turkish airplanes if they enter Syria, and a conversation between 2 biggest pricks in Europe to finish the masquerade. I don't think that both military and economically, neither state can afford a full war.

I also expect Obama to phone Erdogan and to say to him to not hit any other Russia airplane even if they briefly enter Turkish airspace. On TV, of course he'll say that Turkey has the right of defending their airspace. Erdogan will say that Turkey will hit any non-NATO plane who enters Turkey's airspace without getting permission, and Putin will threaten Turkey.

No world wars as long as there are thousands of nukes right there.
 
A Turkish fighter to intercept... Fly alongside Take photos and video... Release to the media and push through nato the Un the states and the eu for a diplomatic resolution would be my call rather than shoot them down
Didn't they do it on October? I think that was both a UN and NATO meeting. Russia blamed the weather of course, but then they entered Turkish airspace the following day.

This is at-least the third time they did so. It is completely needless.
 
People here seem to be missing the fact that Turkey shot the Russian jet inside Syria. Inside the Syrian airspace. There is no justification for that. Period.
 
Didn't they do it on October? I think that was both a UN and NATO meeting. Russia blamed the weather of course, but then they entered Turkish airspace the following day.

This is at-least the third time they did so. It is completely needless.

Turks violate Greece's airspace on a regular basis and they don't get shot down. There are examples of such activity all over the world, but it very rarely comes to shooting a plane down, it has to be absolutely the last resort because of the possible consequences. Considering the military activity near their border, they should have been very careful as to not do something rash and stupid. I could understand if the Russian plane attacked Turkish territory/population intentionally or by mistake. But by all accounts he posed no threat to them.
 
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Turks violate Greece's airspace on a regular basis and they don't get shot down. There are examples of such activity all over the world, but it very rarely comes to shooting a plane down, it has to be absolutely the last resort because of the possible consequences. Considering the military activity near their border, they should have been very careful as to not do something rash and stupid. I could understand if the Russian plane attacked Turkish territory/population intentionally or by mistake. But by all accounts he posed no threat to them.
Can Greece actually shoot Turkey's planes? Anyway, both are NATO members so in theory they are friends.

While I think that Turkey overreacted, sooner or later this was going to happen. What is the deal with Russia doing this all the time? Didn't you do something similar with Ireland some time ago? In reality there is no reason to violate some other's state airspace but Russia does this all the time. It is just asking for trouble.
 
Putin is deploying S400 missiles within miles of the Turkish border. This obviously wont end well for either side.
 
Putin is deploying S400 missiles within miles of the Turkish border. This obviously wont end well for either side.
Not surprising. They'll shoot any Turkish airplane that will enter Syria's airspace.

Kurds must be celebrating. ISIS probably not, no more air support for them.
 
Putin is deploying S400 missiles within miles of the Turkish border. This obviously wont end well for either side.

I just googled that, that's surface-to-air. I'd guess that's pretty much the minimum response really.
Provocation would threatening Turkish military targets on the ground inside their border.
 
I just googled that, that's surface-to-air. I'd guess that's pretty much the minimum response really.
Provocation would threatening Turkish military targets on the ground inside their border.
They are just skirmishing. No one is interested in full scale war.

Bombing Turkey's military targets inside their border will practically force NATO to act. Shooting a Turkish warplane inside Syria's airzone - or near it - won't start a war.
 
Putin is deploying S400 missiles within miles of the Turkish border. This obviously wont end well for either side.

The US will move missiles to Cuba thanks to our newly reopened relations. Wait, what?
 
A Turkish fighter to intercept... Fly alongside Take photos and video... Release to the media and push through nato the Un the states and the eu for a diplomatic resolution would be my call rather than shoot them down
Which let's face really amounts to nothing since it's hoping the UN will do anything.
 
What air support has IS been receiving?
Turkey has been bombing Kurdish fighters who are fighting ISIS, thereby giving the latter an advantage. They're obviously not acting as official air support for ISIS but they might as well be considering that they're only bombing ISIS's biggest nemesis in Northern Syria

EDIT: what Darth Revan said.
 
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Btw, I don't think that it is because Turkey actually likes ISIS. It is more because:

1) They don't want a Kurdish state to be formed near Turkey, in the fear that sooner or later, the Kurds in Turkey would want to join them.
2) They are making business with ISIS by buying cheap oil from them.

Mainly, because of the first reason. A typical the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
 
Well I dont think they'll stop bombing in Northern Iraq as they've done so on a daily basis since the Iraqi government will do sweet FA about it, but in Syria I'd wager they're probably abit more nervous now. Or if Russia gifts the Kurds with some ground to air missiles :drool:
 
IF ISIS wasn't attacking the west - I think sadly the US and others would have been more than happy to leave them alone in Syria to a certain extent - use them to weaken, unseat Assad and then we can sort them out later.

Kind of the reverse of what the French are saying now - Assad isn't a priority...ISIS is who we want to vaporize, we'll sorry about Assad later.
 
Btw, I don't think that it is because Turkey actually likes ISIS. It is more because:

1) They don't want a Kurdish state to be formed near Turkey, in the fear that sooner or later, the Kurds in Turkey would want to join them.
2) They are making business with ISIS by buying cheap oil from them.

Mainly, because of the first reason. A typical the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
3) Erdogan is a hardline Islamist who would make Turkey a Sharia state if he had his way. I wager there's very little he dislikes about daesh privately.
 
3) Erdogan is a hardline Islamist who would make Turkey a Sharia state if he had his way. I wager there's very little he dislikes about daesh privately.
He's Hanefi though. The majority of Muslims don't like Wahabbis that much. I don't think that Turks like Saudi Arabia for example (a state which uses similar policies to IS). Neither Erdogan.

I also don't think that it is in Erdogan's agenda to make Turkey an Islamic State. Sure, he would like Islam to play some part but certainly not to be Saudi Arabia or Iran.

It is almost completely, strong Kurds = bad for Turkey. And well, the small fact that his son buys a lot of oil from IS.
 
He's Hanefi though. The majority of Muslims don't like Wahabbis that much. I don't think that Turks like Saudi Arabia for example (a state which uses similar policies to IS). Neither Erdogan.

I also don't think that it is in Erdogan's agenda to make Turkey an Islamic State. Sure, he would like Islam to play some part but certainly not to be Saudi Arabia or Iran.

It is almost completely, strong Kurds = bad for Turkey. And well, the small fact that his son buys a lot of oil from IS.

Kurdish buffering is indeed the main driving force behind Erdogan's stance in Syria, but I don't think we should be quick to dismiss his Islamist tendencies. Lets not forget this was a man who was arrested in the late 90s because of being deemed a threat to Turkey's secular fabric. He's also got close links with the Muslim brotherhood and has publicly backed Mohammed Morsi as Egypt's president, while lambasting Al-Sisi. And that's not even going into his constant attacks on the secular Hurriyet Turkish newspaper.

If it weren't for the autonomous influence of Turkey's military as well as the vehement defense of secular principles in major Turkish cities, Erdogan would have pushed for a more Islamist state. Not necessarily to the level of somewhere like Saudi Arabia, but something that would certainly make Ataturk turn in his grave.
 
He's Hanefi though. The majority of Muslims don't like Wahabbis that much. I don't think that Turks like Saudi Arabia for example (a state which uses similar policies to IS). Neither Erdogan.

I also don't think that it is in Erdogan's agenda to make Turkey an Islamic State. Sure, he would like Islam to play some part but certainly not to be Saudi Arabia or Iran.

It is almost completely, strong Kurds = bad for Turkey. And well, the small fact that his son buys a lot of oil from IS.

The correct word is he's a brotherhood member. Currently, the most successful too. So yes you should worry about him 'cause the "brothers" want a grand Caliphate. They envy Iran for establishing a Shia theocracy.
 
Thanks. I'm reading now that Turkmen fighters in that area are "mostly al-Nusra", although some are disputing it.
By the way, it takes some nerve, even for the biggest Al-Qaeda apologists/sympathisers, to deny that the main fighting force in Latakia is Al-Nusra Front, because they themselves publish videos regularly about their battles in Latakia, even the one going on right now, and here is a very recent example they published yesterday.



They're talking here about the point which the SAA lost yesterday when the Russian S-24 was shot down, capitalising on the chaos and the distraction by the incident. The SAA regained that point though today.
 
Kurdish buffering is indeed the main driving force behind Erdogan's stance in Syria, but I don't think we should be quick to dismiss his Islamist tendencies. Lets not forget this was a man who was arrested in the late 90s because of being deemed a threat to Turkey's secular fabric. He's also got close links with the Muslim brotherhood and has publicly backed Mohammed Morsi as Egypt's president, while lambasting Al-Sisi. And that's not even going into his constant attacks on the secular Hurriyet Turkish newspaper.

If it weren't for the autonomous influence of Turkey's military as well as the vehement defense of secular principles in major Turkish cities, Erdogan would have pushed for a more Islamist state. Not necessarily to the level of somewhere like Saudi Arabia, but something that would certainly make Ataturk turn in his grave.
Out of curiosity, how and why is he elected? Genuine question.
 
Out of curiosity, how and why is he elected? Genuine question.
Because he's reduced Turkey's debt by over 40% since his party have been around, increased their GDP, and boosted their economy. They've had a surplus in their account balance for 2 months the first time since 2004. It's a good place to invest. He's also taken in 1.5m refugees. He's a good leader by all accounts.
 
Are they ?
Well with the S-400 they will not fly near Syria anymore and they cannot attack the Kurds by air, and besides living in the US and supporting the rednecks party I don't have the view of most Americans have with Russia you see I'm Portuguese and the image we have from the ruskies are the beautiful women, not Kremlin or nukes ;)
 
Out of curiosity, how and why is he elected? Genuine question.
He has significantly improven their economy, and generally Turks who live in the rural areas of the Asian part of Turkey, are quite religious. They vote him by default.

In the cities, apparently he doesn't do well in election. Intellectuals don't like him, but the majority of people yes. And despite that he has removed some parts of secularism, there is no chance for coup d'etat from the military this time considering that every general/admiral in Turkey is on jail now.
 
Well with the S-400 they will not fly near Syria anymore and they cannot attack the Kurds by air, and besides living in the US and supporting the rednecks party I don't have the view of most Americans have with Russia you see I'm Portuguese and the image we have from the ruskies are the beautiful women, not Kremlin or nukes ;)
Just about every strip club in the US is 50% staffed by Russian gals. (Note there is no proof to back up these stats)
 
I think thats missing the point tbh.
It is actually the point.

1- If they were after protecting their airspace they wouldn't have shot it outside their airspace, regardless of whether it entered their airspace for a few seconds or not. They were clearly set on hitting a Russian jet regardless of the circumstances, they hoped to have the "inside my space!" excuse, but they were busted. There is absolutely no reason for them to follow the Russian jet into Syria (even if it "entered their space for a few seconds") other than deliberately trying to destroy a Russian jet, and not trying to "protect their airspace".

2- Hitting it inside Syria does not only prove that they invaded Syria's airspace, but also committed an act of aggression inside Syria's airspace. Now if Erdogan thinks it's unforgivable to enter his airspace even for a few seconds, how about entering Syria's airspace and shooting an aircraft inside it?

3- It is clearly a crucial point which is why Erdogan is still insisting they shot it inside Turkey's airspace, even though his allies have already admitted it was shot in Syria's airspace.

In fact he got so desperate trying to "prove" they hit it in Turkey's airspace, that he resorted to this kind of "evidence"...
But Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeated Turkey's claim that the jet was in Turkish airspace at the time it was hit in direct contradiction of the US analysis.

He said part of the damaged plane landed inside Turkey, injuring two civilians on the ground.
:lol:

4- The fact that it was hit inside Syria proves that Erdogan is lying, and actually throws a lot of doubt into Erdogan's whole story of "invaded my space for 17 seconds!", even though the remaining details are less important. What's important is that the only proof we have of a jet invading the airspace of another country, and actually committing an act of aggression in the airspace of another country, proves that Turkey was actually the aggressor.