Putin and Russia in Syria

They're not really sworn enemies. In 2014, 6% of their attacks were against ISIS. The thermal power station the US bombed last month was only operational because of an agreement between ISIS and Assad (he'd provide the materials/workers as long as ISIS allowed for power in the regime areas). The same goes on at gas power plants. So it's not only oil the regime is getting from ISIS.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...-and-Isil-is-new-target-for-EU-sanctions.html
You're clutching at straws here, and the worst part is you both know it.

ISIS have beheaded hundreds if not thousands of SAA troops, and you know very well that the reason why the first year saw less direct fight between ISIS and the SAA is because of how far ISIS' areas are from SAA forces. On the other hand, if we're looking at things this way, for the US distances don't matter, so I wonder why 0% of their attacks is targeting Al-Nusra, a well known terrorist group in Syria with direct affiliation to Al-Qaeda... Double standards eh?

Also there is a difference between actively supporting a group, and being forced to accept limited deals to help innocent people. All governments around the world swap prisoners (the US did it too with Al-Qaeda didn't it?) or pay ransoms to free hostages. The deal over the power plant was only to make sure the civilians in Aleppo don't remain without electricity for the length of the fight. There is also a mutual truce going now with Al-Nusra and co in Zabadani and Foua and Kafriya (SAA don't attack Zabadani and Nusra and co don't attack Foua and Kafriya), but that's only a local limited deal which happens everywhere in the world, but doesn't mean they're not in a bloody fight with each other.

Also it's teling enough that the decision to bomb the oil facilities was taken by the SAA and its allies, while Turkey is still fuming about it.
 
Remember Davutoglu's "Zero problems with neighbors" idea? Is Turkey on good terms with any of its neighbors today? Georgia maybe?
 
You're clutching at straws here, and the worst part is you both know it.

ISIS have beheaded hundreds if not thousands of SAA troops, and you know very well that the reason why the first year saw less direct fight between ISIS and the SAA is because of how far ISIS' areas are from SAA forces. On the other hand, if we're looking at things this way, for the US distances don't matter, so I wonder why 0% of their attacks is targeting Al-Nusra, a well known terrorist group in Syria with direct affiliation to Al-Qaeda... Double standards eh?

Also there is a difference between actively supporting a group, and being forced to accept limited deals to help innocent people. All governments around the world swap prisoners (the US did it too with Al-Qaeda didn't it?) or pay ransoms to free hostages. The deal over the power plant was only to make sure the civilians in Aleppo don't remain without electricity for the length of the fight. There is also a mutual truce going now with Al-Nusra and co in Zabadani and Foua and Kafriya (SAA don't attack Zabadani and Nusra and co don't attack Foua and Kafriya), but that's only a local limited deal which happens everywhere in the world, but doesn't mean they're not in a bloody fight with each other.

Also it's teling enough that the decision to bomb the oil facilities was taken by the SAA and its allies, while Turkey is still fuming about it.

Because that's not true:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...batter-jabhat-al-nusra-encouraging-moderates/

http://news.yahoo.com/us-designated-terrorist-killed-syria-strike-monitor-221643807.html

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/New...-S-led-air-strikes-hit-al-Nusra-in-Syria.html

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/...ria-killed-250-civilians-151124075241069.html

https://news.vice.com/article/us-airstrikes-hit-syrian-rebel-group-fighting-islamic-state
 
Calculate the percetage (is it more than 6%? which is the point), and try to come back with a good excuse.

I'd be willing to guess it's higher than 0%. I don't have time to adjust for the amount of territory held by the two groups, the number of fighters, or estimate the number of strikes that weren't announced in the media.
 
Things are going from bad to worse for Putin it seems. He has estranged himself from North America, Europe, now Turkey and has endeared himself to Iran and Syria at a time when the oil price is expected to drop into the 20s. Very dangerous times ahead imo.
 
Things are going from bad to worse for Putin it seems. He has estranged himself from North America, Europe, now Turkey and has endeared himself to Iran and Syria at a time when the oil price is expected to drop into the 20s. Very dangerous times ahead imo.

isnt oil around $45 at the moment... if you know its about to drop into the 20's I suggest you get off the caf and start trading!
 
isnt oil around $45 at the moment... if you know its about to drop into the 20's I suggest you get off the caf and start trading!

Crude is at 42 now and I fully expect it to go lower in the next few months. The $20 thing was listed as a possibility by Goldman Sachs a couple of months ago. Needless to say if that happens, it could tip Russia into a major crisis and make Putin even more desperate for foreign conquest to obfuscate from troubles at home, since roughly 50% of Russia's budget is pegged to energy exports.
 
Things are going from bad to worse for Putin it seems. He has estranged himself from North America, Europe, now Turkey and has endeared himself to Iran and Syria at a time when the oil price is expected to drop into the 20s. Very dangerous times ahead imo.

Ironically, international sentiment towards Putin has recently become more sympathetic. Terror in Europe and Turkey's recent idiotic actions have only strengthened his standing.
 
Ironically, international sentiment towards Putin has recently become more sympathetic. Terror in Europe and Turkey's recent idiotic actions have only strengthened his standing.

International sentiment towards him among random middle eastern street people is artificial and thus irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. What matters is how powerful governments view him, and at the moment his credibility is toilet paper after Ukraine and now this. Not too many leaders are capable of estranging themselves from the US, Europe, Turkey, NATO, Ukraine and others whilst simultaneously getting on ISIS' (s)hitlist, and ruining their own economies in the process, but Putin seems to have managed to pull it off. He is growing increasingly desperate for relevance which ratchets up the danger.
 
Ironically, international sentiment towards Putin has recently become more sympathetic. Terror in Europe and Turkey's recent idiotic actions have only strengthened his standing.
Eh? Most people think he's a blustering plank. The only support I've seen for him is from isolated RW Islamophobes.

Even the govts have realised he's on a sinking ship. Russian M&A activity has been deafeningly low whereas it's blossoming in most E European states. The move into Syria is an act of a desperate man.
 
I'd be willing to guess it's higher than 0%. I don't have time to adjust for the amount of territory held by the two groups, the number of fighters, or estimate the number of strikes that weren't announced in the media.
Obviously the 0% was not meant "literally 0.0000%", but I'm definitely talking about a percentage lower than 6% (which is the main point), and probably closer to 0%.

But ok, if you really want to make an educated guess, then it's not that hard really. Why don't you use one of the links you posted...
The air strikes occurred in the period between September 2014 and November 23, 2015, SOHR said.

...

At least 3,547 ISIL fighters were killed in air strikes on Hama, Aleppo, Homs, Hasaka, Raqqa and Deir Az Zor.

The air strikes also killed 136 al-Nusra Front fighters.

So the percentage is roughly: 136/(136+3547) = 3.7%... Aaaah, sorry I said 0%.

Of course you know all this, and you're clearly just trying to dodge the original points with this pointless side-discussion.

Thanks for the links by the way.
 
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@Raoul @Sir Matt sometimes you guys are more republican than me :eek: we fecked up in Libia, Iraque and now Syria, or we do something to finish off Isil or we just need to get out. The Kurds are the only one fighting the terrorists and turkey decided to bomb them, all the rebels in Syria are terrorists and we will take out a bloody dictator for murders, Libia is a good example of democracy, the dictator down and now the terrorists control the country and even killed our ambassador. Our foreign policy is wrong.... for decades we never get the things right and it's time we have a government for the 99% of Americans and not for the 1%
 
@Raoul @Sir Matt sometimes you guys are more republican than me :eek: we fecked up in Libia, Iraque and now Syria, or we do something to finish off Isil or we just need to get out. The Kurds are the only one fighting the terrorists and turkey decided to bomb them, all the rebels in Syria are terrorists and we will take out a bloody dictator for murders, Libia is a good example of democracy, the dictator down and now the terrorists control the country and even killed our ambassador. Our foreign policy is wrong.... for decades we never get the things right and it's time we have a government for the 99% of Americans and not for the 1%

Well said sir.
 
@Raoul @Sir Matt sometimes you guys are more republican than me :eek: we fecked up in Libia, Iraque and now Syria, or we do something to finish off Isil or we just need to get out. The Kurds are the only one fighting the terrorists and turkey decided to bomb them, all the rebels in Syria are terrorists and we will take out a bloody dictator for murders, Libia is a good example of democracy, the dictator down and now the terrorists control the country and even killed our ambassador. Our foreign policy is wrong.... for decades we never get the things right and it's time we have a government for the 99% of Americans and not for the 1%

Go head, let it all out. :)
 


That seems to confirm supporting the Kurds' plan to establish the Northern Corridor. Turkey won't be standing for that so we can expect a Turkish invasion of northern Syria in response IMO.

This is not going in a good direction, Putin and Erdogan are not the types to back down. If things keep escalating we could see the Turks closing the Bosphorus Straits to Russian shipping which would initiate a proper war.
 
Obviously the 0% was not meant "literally 0.0000%", but I'm definitely talking about a percentage lower than 6% (which is the main point), and probably closer to 0%.

But ok, if you really want to make an educated guess, then it's not that hard really. Why don't you use one of the links you posted...


So the percentage is roughly: 136/(136+3547) = 3.7%... Aaaah, sorry I said 0%.

Of course you know all this, and you're clearly just trying to dodge the original points with this pointless side-discussion.

Thanks for the links by the way.

Your math fails to tell the whole story. Of course the number of Al Nusra fighters is substantially lower than that of ISIS. The estimated strength of ISIS ranges from about 30,000 to over 100,000. Most estimates for the strength of Al Nusra around 5,000-10,000. They also hold substantially less territory and are imbedded in areas that are divided between multiple different groups. The only place that they have under their control is in northwestern Syria near Idlib. ISIS has essentially the whole central and eastern part of the country under its control as well as large parts of the west.

Their operations are very different. ISIS is intent on creating a state and has to operate somewhat openly and moves about in convoys, carries out more conventional assaults on targets, rather than focusing on guerrilla tactics. They have more central organization, while Al Nusra operates as various cells. They have the assets (tanks, humvees, etc. they stole from Iraq) to operate as a more traditional fighting force. Al Nusra doesn't have that ability. They operate like AQ and other groups have done, with guerrilla and terror tactics. ISIS still uses them, but their need and ability to operate as a more traditional fighting force exposes them to greater danger than Al Nusra's tactics. It's easier to identify a target in a stolen military vehicle driving down the road than it is to target an old Toyota Corolla.
 


That seems to confirm supporting the Kurds' plan to establish the Northern Corridor. Turkey won't be standing for that so we can expect a Turkish invasion of northern Syria in response IMO.

This is not going in a good direction, Putin and Erdogan are not the types to back down. If things keep escalating we could see the Turks closing the Bosphorus Straits to Russian shipping which would initiate a proper war.


Even if Erdogan limited shipping through either straight, Putin wouldn't be able to do much about it since Turkey legally controls the straights and can limit transit to Russian ships if there's a conflict. Putin would be suicidal to attack based on just that since he would bump up against Article V. The more likely scenario is Erdogan and Putin will continue this handbags for a few weeks or months by way of verbal chest beating, economic posturing, and supporting proxies/elements the other opposes in Syria.
 
Even if Erdogan limited shipping through either straight, Putin wouldn't be able to do much about it since Turkey legally controls the straights and can limit transit to Russian ships if there's a conflict. Putin would be suicidal to attack based on just that since he would bump up against Article V. The more likely scenario is Erdogan and Putin will continue this handbags for a few weeks or months by way of verbal chest beating, economic posturing, and supporting proxies/elements the other opposes in Syria.

From what I've read about it today, Turkey can only legally close the straits to another Black Sea state in the event of war. I doubt Russian actions in Syria could be sold as justification for that, although if Russian jets find themselves bombing a Turkish 'buffer-zone' one morning who knows?

In any case I hope you're right, the worry would be that the sabre-rattling from each side enflames nationalist sentiment at home to the point where they find it hard to back down. Russia and Turkey have more than enough mutual history for that to happen.
 
@Raoul @Sir Matt sometimes you guys are more republican than me :eek: we fecked up in Libia, Iraque and now Syria, or we do something to finish off Isil or we just need to get out. The Kurds are the only one fighting the terrorists and turkey decided to bomb them, all the rebels in Syria are terrorists and we will take out a bloody dictator for murders, Libia is a good example of democracy, the dictator down and now the terrorists control the country and even killed our ambassador. Our foreign policy is wrong.... for decades we never get the things right and it's time we have a government for the 99% of Americans and not for the 1%

Bush got our foreign policy spot on.

EDIT: I was waiting for Benghazi reference.....and you did not fail :)

2nd EDIT: really interested in the source of this new poll that supports 99% Americans thoughts.
 
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the point I was making was there would have been no such power if Sadaam was still there.

So long as we bow down to SA and their oil reserves, we will continue to have these conflicts of interest because they sponsor these same people.

My post was in response to barros.
 
I understand. just clarifying and addressing American policy there.

Yeah I pretty much agree with you. Only I'd say the idea that Iraq would be ISIS-free with Saddam still in power is slightly complicated by this:

 
Yeah I pretty much agree with you. Only I'd say the idea that Iraq would be ISIS-free with Saddam's still in power is slightly complicated by this:



Sadaam's thugs would be under Sadaam's control. I don't mean to be callous. These countries all have thier own problems but we cannot be the World's policemen. Terrorism on this scale will remain so long as we do not resolve our dependence on foreign oil.
 


That seems to confirm supporting the Kurds' plan to establish the Northern Corridor. Turkey won't be standing for that so we can expect a Turkish invasion of northern Syria in response IMO.

This is not going in a good direction, Putin and Erdogan are not the types to back down. If things keep escalating we could see the Turks closing the Bosphorus Straits to Russian shipping which would initiate a proper war.


To be honest this should be something facilitated by the international community at the very start of this crisis. Considering the main influx of jihadis and supplies goes in through the Turkish border, that should have been the first target for powers genuinely interested in curbing ISIS. Its bemusing how Russia is the only one now thinking of this (albeit for more personal reasons).
 
Your math fails to tell the whole story. Of course the number of Al Nusra fighters is substantially lower than that of ISIS. The estimated strength of ISIS ranges from about 30,000 to over 100,000. Most estimates for the strength of Al Nusra around 5,000-10,000. They also hold substantially less territory and are imbedded in areas that are divided between multiple different groups. The only place that they have under their control is in northwestern Syria near Idlib. ISIS has essentially the whole central and eastern part of the country under its control as well as large parts of the west.

Their operations are very different. ISIS is intent on creating a state and has to operate somewhat openly and moves about in convoys, carries out more conventional assaults on targets, rather than focusing on guerrilla tactics. They have more central organization, while Al Nusra operates as various cells. They have the assets (tanks, humvees, etc. they stole from Iraq) to operate as a more traditional fighting force. Al Nusra doesn't have that ability. They operate like AQ and other groups have done, with guerrilla and terror tactics. ISIS still uses them, but their need and ability to operate as a more traditional fighting force exposes them to greater danger than Al Nusra's tactics. It's easier to identify a target in a stolen military vehicle driving down the road than it is to target an old Toyota Corolla.
First of all, this is a myth, and it tells me that you don't actually follow the conflict closely. There is no difference between the way ISIS and Al-Nusra fight. Even those Humvees they stole, they're just using them as VBIEDS. Al-Nusra also have tanks, and neither is fighting like a traditional force. They both rely on VBIEDS, suicide bombers, tunnels, planted explosives and snipers. That's how ISIS fight too.

It's clearly not about the size of the group, those estimates of ISIS "reaching 100,000" include their presence in the whole world, and the CIA put their estimation about ISIS forces in both Iraq and Syria as 20,000-31,000. Al-Nusra estimates are upward from 10,000, and it's not realistic to think it's less than that since they're fighting on pretty much all fronts in Syria.

You're clearly not talking about Al-Nusra here, but about the Khorasan group, which was indeed the primary target for the US strikes, and without the Khorasan group no Al-Nusra fighter would have been targeted. Most of those 136 actually do belong to the Khorasan group and not the main Al-Nusra organisation.

So the numbers don't add up anyway, there is no way Al-Nusra is 30 times smaller than ISIS. Besides, if you're taking every detail into consideration here, then you have to remember that the airstrikes against Al-Nusra were far more concentrated (leading to more casualties per strike) which means if we actually compare the total number of airstrikes, the difference will be a few folds more.

But regardless, if you're now trying to use the excuse "they're embedded so deep in our 'moderate opposition' that we can't target them", then how the hell are you providing those "moderate opposition" with all those dangerous weapons knowing that they're deeply infiltrated by terrorists (at least)?

It's clearly not about the number or the location or the equipments, you know Al-Nusra (and Ahrar Al-Sham and the other terrorist organisations in Syria) are the major forces that are fighting Assad in Syria and have a chance at toppling him, and you know that fighting them will mean the end of the "rebellion", and that's the real reason why you avoid targeting them. You're using terrorism (and funding it actually, umm "indirectly") to achieve your political goals. That's the reality.

In fact, it's exactly what you were trying to accuse Assad of. You're the ones fighting terrorism selectively, and only when it fits your political agendas. Remember this?



Good times.
 
Turkish President Says Wishes Plane Downing Had Not Happened
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS NOV. 28, 2015, 8:06 A.M. E.S.T.

ANKARA, Turkey — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday voiced regret over Turkey's downing of a Russian warplane, saying his country was "truly saddened" by the incident and wished it hadn't occurred.

It was the first expression of regret by the strongman leader since Tuesday's incident in which Turkish F-16 jets shot down the Russian jet on grounds that it had violated Turkey's airspace despite repeated warnings to change course. It was the first time in half a century that a NATO member shot down a Russian plane and drew a harsh response from Moscow.

"We are truly saddened by this incident," Erdogan said. "We wish it hadn't happened as such, but unfortunately such a thing has happened. I hope that something like this doesn't occur again."

...

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/11/28/world/europe/ap-eu-turkey-russia.html