Putin and Russia in Syria

Raoul said:
Definitely seems the result of repeated incursions over the past couple of months to where Erdogan gave his pilots permission to engage any further attempts. The flight path basically makes it inconvenient for Russian pilots to swoop around the southern tip of Turkish airspace and more convenient to fly through it as if they have permission.
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It looks like that strip is circa 4 miles long and presuming the plane was travelling at circa 400 mph it would not have been in their airspace long (circa 45 seconds)... Equally they must have known it's heading and that by the time the missile hit it would be in Syrian airspace

As I say at best it seems like a rash decision to engage
 
Raoul said:
Definitely seems the result of repeated incursions over the past couple of months to where Erdogan gave his pilots permission to engage any further attempts. The flight path basically makes it inconvenient for Russian pilots to swoop around the southern tip of Turkish airspace and more convenient to fly through it as if they have permission.
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To me the reaction reflects pain, not frustration. Hitting those oil tankers/ refineries and the advances made in Lattakia in the last few weeks was very painful for Turkey.
 
Danny1982 said:
To me the reaction reflects pain, not frustration. Hitting those oil tankers/ refineries and the advances made in Lattakia in the last few weeks was very painful for Turkey.
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That's a weird analysis. If anything, Turkey and Russia have different horses in the race, but they also have mutual economic interests, which is why Putin and Erdogan will sort things out privately, whilst continuing to beat their chests in public.
 
rcoobc said:
A quick way to stop this escalating would be for the US to criticise Turkey's actions, whilst reaffirming its commitment to NATO.
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No chance. Obama has already said Turkey had the fight to defend its airspace and the US Military to a certain extent has verified the Turkish version of events (multiple warnings given and ignored by 1 pilot, the other followed instructions and was not attacked).

I think what Raoul said is right - Erdogan and Putin will both beat their chests in public. Putin maybe order some Russian assets at sea 'pointing' at Turkey and Erdogan acting the strongman.

In private both might say - alright...let bygones be bygones.
 
sun_tzu said:
It looks like that strip is circa 4 miles long and presuming the plane was travelling at circa 400 mph it would not have been in their airspace long (circa 45 seconds)... Equally they must have known it's heading and that by the time the missile hit it would be in Syrian airspace

As I say at best it seems like a rash decision to engage
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According to Turks, it was 17 seconds.
 
Russian Defence Ministry has issued a statement saying it will step up its operations in Syria, and "discontinue" military contact with Turkey.

Reading the statement on state TV, Lieutenant General Sergey Rudskoy said "measures will be taken to strengthen air defence" and that "any targets representing a potential danger for us will be destroyed".

He said additional weapons will be deployed to the Latakia area.
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Russia love violating air space.

Such a strange thing to do though from Turkeys perspective
 
rcoobc said:
Russia love violating air space.

Such a strange thing to do though from Turkeys perspective
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Imagine the Turkish perspective - Russia repeatedly violating their airspace to bomb rebels whose actions Turkey probably supports. Its like getting slapped in the face twice. At some point, they were going to react.
 
Kaos said:
I'd wager the real reason was the Turks weren't exactly thrilled with the Russians taking out ISIS and Al Nusra targets near the border, since they were useful for keeping the Kurds at bay.
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Aye... The sensible move from the Russians would be to arm the Kurds with heavy weapons, embed special forces with them and give air support if anybody engages with them... And basically tell turkey if one bomb or bullet hurts a Russian embedded there that they will take that as a declaration of war

The Kurds have a lot of sympathy in the West so politically it would be a great move plus it would piss turkey off more than virtually anything else
 
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-18584872

Mr Erdogan spoke of Turkey's "rage" at the decision to shoot down the F-4 Phantom on 22 June and described Syria as a "clear and present threat".

"A short-term border violation can never be a pretext for an attack," he said. The Turkish jet was on a training flight, testing Turkey's radars in the eastern Mediterranean, he said.


Nato Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said: "It is another example of the Syrian authorities' disregard for international norms. Nato allies will remain seized of developments."


Hypocritical anyone ?
 
sun_tzu said:
Aye... The sensible move from the Russians would be to arm the Kurds with heavy weapons, embed special forces with them and give air support if anybody engages with them... And basically tell turkey if one bomb or bullet hurts a Russian embedded there that they will take that as a declaration of war

The Kurds have a lot of sympathy in the West so politically it would be a great move plus it would piss turkey off more than virtually anything else
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It's the kind of thing that could potentially split NATO, since the European countries are probably getting tired of Turkey's recent actions in Syria and elsewhere...which is why it is a course of action which might appeal to Putin. Dangerous game though.
 
Red Dreams said:
TEAM A

USA
FRANCE
UNITED KINGDOM
TURKEY
CHINA?

TEAM B
RUSSIA
Assad


Please feel free to add/delete :nervous:
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j6gtAQk.png

​
 
sun_tzu said:
Aye... The sensible move from the Russians would be to arm the Kurds with heavy weapons, embed special forces with them and give air support if anybody engages with them... And basically tell turkey if one bomb or bullet hurts a Russian embedded there that they will take that as a declaration of war

The Kurds have a lot of sympathy in the West so politically it would be a great move plus it would piss turkey off more than virtually anything else
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So arming insurgents and spreading civil war into Turkey is sensible? Of course then the weapons end up with Kurds in Iraq and Iran in addition to Kurds in Syria and Turkey.
 
antihenry said:
The U2 incident was at the high point of the Cold War and the US pilot was about 1500 miles into Soviet territory by the time he was shot down. In this particular incident it's not even certain that the Russian plane was inside Turkish airspace when it was shot down.
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Syria and Turkey have been shooting down each other's aircraft for violations in the past several months and years. If you violate someone's airspace with a military plane, you can expect to be at risk of being shot down.

Just because it crashed in Syria or even was hit over Syria doesn't mean that it didn't violate Turkey's airspace. At least from Putin's statement, nothing he says clearly denies violating Turkish airspace. He says that they did not threaten Turkey, that it was hit over Syria, and that it landed in Syria. It's pretty basic physics. If it's shot down over a narrow stretch of Turkey, it won't land in that stretch because its momentum will carry it into Syria. No doubt the photoshop artists from MH17 will get a nice paycheck again.

Unrelated but interesting: If the U2 incident had happened about 10 years later, the Soviets might have been unable to shoot down the SR-71 since it outran the same missiles used over Libya in 1986.

sun_tzu said:
Aye... The sensible move from the Russians would be to arm the Kurds with heavy weapons, embed special forces with them and give air support if anybody engages with them... And basically tell turkey if one bomb or bullet hurts a Russian embedded there that they will take that as a declaration of war

The Kurds have a lot of sympathy in the West so politically it would be a great move plus it would piss turkey off more than virtually anything else
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The Kurds are already working with the US and others and have carried out operations with US Special Operations forces. This has upset the Turks and created tension there, but it's not as though the Kurds are friendless. The US has provided air cover for them along with weapons and other support.
 
Sir Matt said:
Syria and Turkey have been shooting down each other's aircraft for violations in the past several months and years. If you violate someone's airspace with a military plane, you can expect to be at risk of being shot down.

Just because it crashed in Syria or even was hit over Syria doesn't mean that it didn't violate Turkey's airspace. At least from Putin's statement, nothing he says clearly denies violating Turkish airspace. He says that they did not threaten Turkey, that it was hit over Syria, and that it landed in Syria. It's pretty basic physics. If it's shot down over a narrow stretch of Turkey, it won't land in that stretch because its momentum will carry it into Syria. No doubt the photoshop artists from MH17 will get a nice paycheck again.

Unrelated but interesting: If the U2 incident had happened about 10 years later, the Soviets might have been unable to shoot down the SR-71 since it outran the same missiles used over Libya in 1986.



The Kurds are already working with the US and others and have carried out operations with US Special Operations forces. This has upset the Turks and created tension there, but it's not as though the Kurds are friendless. The US has provided air cover for them along with weapons and other support.
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:lol:
 
Raoul said:
Imagine the Turkish perspective - Russia repeatedly violating their airspace to bomb rebels whose actions Turkey probably supports. Its like getting slapped in the face twice. At some point, they were going to react.
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Agreed, they were going to react eventually. It seems like the drew a line in the sand, and Russia crossed it.

But it seems naive to down a Russian plane outside their airspace.
 
Sir Matt said:
The Kurds are already working with the US and others and have carried out operations with US Special Operations forces. This has upset the Turks and created tension there, but it's not as though the Kurds are friendless. The US has provided air cover for them along with weapons and other support.
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Indeed... That's why it's such a prudent way to go... The USA / nato partners could hardly turn against the Kurds
But heavy Russian backing and a push for a kurdistan would push the Turks into a corner and as others have mentioned possibly split the United nato front
 
Red Dreams said:
TEAM A

USA
FRANCE
UNITED KINGDOM
TURKEY
CHINA?

TEAM B
RUSSIA
Assad


Please feel free to add/delete :nervous:
Click to expand...
It won't come to that. Regardless, in a conventional war, US should be able to defeat the rest of the world combined.

But in this proxy war, weird stuff might happen. The best thing Russia can do is to arm the Kurds. Give them anti-aircraft missiles and Turkey won't like that at all. It would also make things more difficult for IS, considering that Turkey bombed the shit out of Kurds everytime they were winning against IS.

Not sure that he'll do so, though. Putin is still hoping for an Alawite regime in the entire Syria, right?
 
Raoul said:
That's a weird analysis. If anything, Turkey and Russia have different horses in the race, but they also have mutual economic interests, which is why Putin and Erdogan will sort things out privately, whilst continuing to beat their chests in public.
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I think you've hammered home the Russia/Turkey phone call enough now Raoul.

It would be nice to see such enthusiasm for a Russia/USA phone call actually, or rather some serious talks to find common ground. How about Russia and the US agree to support a Kurdish state and guarantee it's borders, then together tell Turkey that's the way it is going to be, like it or not. Both could give suitable promises as to not supporting Kurdish interests within Turkey and guaranteeing their borders too, to help them save face.
 
Unfortunately for the Kurds, Turkey is a NATO member so its unlikely they'll receive Western help for autonomy. Russia on the other hand...
 
712 said:
I think you've hammered home the Russia/Turkey phone call enough now Raoul.

It would be nice to see such enthusiasm for a Russia/USA phone call actually, or rather some serious talks to find common ground. How about Russia and the US agree to support a Kurdish state and guarantee it's borders, then together tell Turkey that's the way it is going to be, like it or not. Both could give suitable promises as to not supporting Kurdish interests within Turkey and guaranteeing their borders too, to help them save face.
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No need for a phone call - they just had a meeting 6 days ago.....in Turkey of all places.

obama-arrives-in-manila-for-apec-summit-bilateral-meetings.jpg
'

I don't think a Kurdish state is on anyone's agenda at the moment, especially as it would further unsettle Iraq and not have any support from Turkey.
 
712 said:
I think you've hammered home the Russia/Turkey phone call enough now Raoul.

It would be nice to see such enthusiasm for a Russia/USA phone call actually, or rather some serious talks to find common ground. How about Russia and the US agree to support a Kurdish state and guarantee it's borders, then together tell Turkey that's the way it is going to be, like it or not. Both could give suitable promises as to not supporting Kurdish interests within Turkey and guaranteeing their borders too, to help them save face.
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Why would that be high on the agenda ahead of Syria, Iraq, IS etc? :wenger:
 
How 30 million Kurds who've been around since day 6 of the creation still don't have an independent state is beyond human comprehension. But I guess that's a subject for another century.
 
Mihajlovic said:
How 30 million Kurds who've been around since day 6 of the creation still don't have an independent state is beyond human comprehension. But I guess that's a subject for another century.
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Would Putin and Obama be meeting up to discuss that ahead of the other mayhem in the ME? That's what I'm asking. I don't think it'd be high on the agenda.

And yea, see also Chechnya.
 
LeChuck said:
Why would that be high on the agenda ahead of Syria, Iraq, IS etc? :wenger:
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The way to address any enormous problem is to simplify it and take things step by step. Both the 'rump' Syria and Iraq would have one less major problem to deal with, and one step to greater stability would have been taken.

Thanks for the big photo Raoul, I was aware of that but I'm not sure they actually met with any intention of a joint strategy, although I'm willing to learn.
 
Sir Matt said:
Syria and Turkey have been shooting down each other's aircraft for violations in the past several months and years. If you violate someone's airspace with a military plane, you can expect to be at risk of being shot down.

Just because it crashed in Syria or even was hit over Syria doesn't mean that it didn't violate Turkey's airspace. At least from Putin's statement, nothing he says clearly denies violating Turkish airspace. He says that they did not threaten Turkey, that it was hit over Syria, and that it landed in Syria. It's pretty basic physics. If it's shot down over a narrow stretch of Turkey, it won't land in that stretch because its momentum will carry it into Syria. No doubt the photoshop artists from MH17 will get a nice paycheck again.

Unrelated but interesting: If the U2 incident had happened about 10 years later, the Soviets might have been unable to shoot down the SR-71 since it outran the same missiles used over Libya in 1986.



The Kurds are already working with the US and others and have carried out operations with US Special Operations forces. This has upset the Turks and created tension there, but it's not as though the Kurds are friendless. The US has provided air cover for them along with weapons and other support.
Click to expand...

Just because a plane violates your airspace doesn't necessarily mean you have to automatically shoot it down, this is the last resort option. It took 17 seconds for the Turks to decide to down the Russian plane, that, according to them, was merely 1.36 miles inside the Turkish airspace. Erdogan decided to act like a tough guy, I'm sure Russia will find a way to make him regret this, at some point in the future. This was a bad move on his part.
 
712 said:
The way to address any enormous problem is to simplify it and take things step by step. Both the 'rump' Syria and Iraq would have one less major problem to deal with, and one step to greater stability would have been taken.

Thanks for the big photo Raoul, I was aware of that but I'm not sure they actually met with any intention of a joint strategy, although I'm willing to learn.
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That's precisely what they discussed (allegedly) following the Paris attacks. Putin has been on a charm offensive with the west about having a single strategy against ISIS.
 
MThomas said:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-18584872

Mr Erdogan spoke of Turkey's "rage" at the decision to shoot down the F-4 Phantom on 22 June and described Syria as a "clear and present threat".

"A short-term border violation can never be a pretext for an attack," he said. The Turkish jet was on a training flight, testing Turkey's radars in the eastern Mediterranean, he said.


Nato Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said: "It is another example of the Syrian authorities' disregard for international norms. Nato allies will remain seized of developments."


Hypocritical anyone ?
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Just a little!
 
LeChuck said:
Would Putin and Obama be meeting up to discuss that ahead of the other mayhem in the ME? That's what I'm asking. I don't think it'd be high on the agenda.

And yea, see also Chechnya.
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Yes, probably not on the agenda but Kurds in Iraq already have their autonomy, looks like Syria is up for grabs anyway and can be shaped and re-drawn in any possible way, should the war ever stop, and then the only thing left would be Turkey.
 
Raoul said:
That's precisely what they discussed (allegedly) following the Paris attacks. Putin has been on a charm offensive with the west about having a single strategy against ISIS.
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The single strategy being "if you're not with Assad, you're against Assad", meaning bombing the hell out of every single anti-government gang? Perhaps this was triggered by a complete failure on part of those who supported 'moderate rebels' to achieve anything in the last 4 years. To the point where you literally start questioning why on earth were they supported in the first place.
 
Mihajlovic said:
The single strategy being "if you're not with Assad, you're against Assad", meaning bombing the hell out of every single anti-government gang? Perhaps this was triggered by a complete failure on part of those who supported 'moderate rebels' to achieve anything in the last 4 years. To the point where you literally start questioning why on earth were they supported in the first place.
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It was obviously done out of principle - as in, you can take the moral position that Assad and ISIS are both bad and that there must be a moderate middle ground that can be supported and developed. Whether or not that works, its quite clear that Syria won't be stable as long as Assad is around since there will always be an armed opposition that seeks to depose him, especially after his WMD/Chemical attack on his own population. Simultaneously, there won't be peace as long as ISIS is around, which is why both countries (Iraq and Syria) require a UN resolution that gets all stakeholders committed to a unified solution.
 
Mihajlovic said:
The single strategy being "if you're not with Assad, you're against Assad", meaning bombing the hell out of every single anti-government gang? Perhaps this was triggered by a complete failure on part of those who supported 'moderate rebels' to achieve anything in the last 4 years. To the point where you literally start questioning why on earth were they supported in the first place.
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Probably because they weren't indiscriminately killing Syrians, using sarin gas and napalm, sexual assaults and rapes as a weapon, and torturing them in govt detention centres?
 
antihenry said:
Just because a plane violates your airspace doesn't necessarily mean you have to automatically shoot it down, this is the last resort option. It took 17 seconds for the Turks to decide to down the Russian plane, that, according to them, was merely 1.36 miles inside the Turkish airspace. Erdogan decided to act like a tough guy, I'm sure Russia will find a way to make him regret this, at some point in the future. This was a bad move on his part.
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Warnings didn't stop previous incursions and didn't stop this one. They didn't have to shoot the plane down and shouldn't have (most of NATO would agree that they shouldn't have), but they weren't without justification.
 
LeChuck said:
Probably because they weren't indiscriminately killing Syrians, using sarin gas and napalm, sexual assaults and rapes as a weapon, and torturing them in govt detention centres?
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Qaddafi did the same horrible things but no Western government doing business with him was bothered in the slightest. All of a sudden then they start remembering 'wait a minute, this guy we're shaking hands with is in fact a horrendous dictator and must be removed at once!' The trouble is that for some strange reason apparently no one imagined that the alternative could be even worse.
 
Sir Matt said:
To be pedantic, there were two jets. The Russians have repeatedly, illegally violated Turkish airspace since beginning their operations in Syria. It's why they requested US move some F-15s to Turkey in the last month. Did the Soviets/Russians think a spy plane was going to invade/attack them when they shot down a U2? It just violated their airspace.
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That means the Russians can shot down any airplane inside the Syrian airspace. I think was a very stupid thing to do, how many times the Russian airplanes violate our airspace? The Turks should wake up and realize they aren't an empire anymore and that Obama still the president (don't expect too much from US).
 
Raoul said:
It was obviously done out of principle - as in, you can take the moral position that Assad and ISIS are both bad and that there must be a moderate middle ground that can be supported and developed. Whether or not that works, its quite clear that Syria won't be stable as long as Assad is around since there will always be an armed opposition that seeks to depose him, especially after his WMD/Chemical attack on his own population. Simultaneously, there won't be peace as long as ISIS is around, which is why both countries (Iraq and Syria) require a UN resolution that gets all stakeholders committed to a unified solution.
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Spot on. Which means the major players must agree first. Which means a 'charm offensive' from all of them.
 
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