[Adz_99]

Struggling to think where their 2.87 XG came from. A pen is anywhere from 0.75 to 0.89 depending on where you look, but the only other decent chances they had were Gakpo’s, both at tight angles. I wouldn’t have said they were any higher than 0.5 a piece.

Amad’s equaliser and Hojlund’s one one should put us above 1.00 on their own.

Yeah the XG feels massively off. It's not like we were hanging on for dear life and trying to play off the counter like previous trips to Anfield, I thought we were the better side.

 

[TwoSheds]

Sure, but Liverpool could have been a couple of goals clear by that point, as we conceded a lot more good chances than they did.

I didn’t misunderstand Amorim at all. He said to Sky that their reaction, and the public’s reaction at large, to our performance was going to be coloured by how we expected the game to be like. Accordingly, everyone was very happy with that when a paddling was anticipated, but it wasn’t a dominant performance away against a better team or anything. We were still second best and need to improve a lot more to expect to win matches like that.

I don't think we were second best. If the ref had given us a dodgy pen instead of Liverpool we'd have won at a canter. Onana also made some excellent saves and their finishing was very average but that's part of the game, you need your keeper and forwards to do the business if you want to win at the top level. Their keeper was pretty bad and ours was good.

 

[BeforeKeanetherewasRobson]

Sure, but Liverpool could have been a couple of goals clear by that point, as we conceded a lot more good chances than they did.

I didn’t misunderstand Amorim at all. He said to Sky that their reaction, and the public’s reaction at large, to our performance was going to be coloured by how we expected the game to be like. Accordingly, everyone was very happy with that when a paddling was anticipated, but it wasn’t a dominant performance away against a better team or anything. We were still second best and need to improve a lot more to expect to win matches like that.

No way we were second best in that game. There are Liverpool fans I know who say we were very good and a completely fair game.

And we had the Dalot/Amad chance, Hojlund clean through and Zirkzee\Maguire at the end… they didn’t have more clear chances than us (similar maybe).

 

[RoadTrip]

Sure, but Liverpool could have been a couple of goals clear by that point, as we conceded a lot more good chances than they did.

I didn’t misunderstand Amorim at all. He said to Sky that their reaction, and the public’s reaction at large, to our performance was going to be coloured by how we expected the game to be like. Accordingly, everyone was very happy with that when a paddling was anticipated, but it wasn’t a dominant performance away against a better team or anything. We were still second best and need to improve a lot more to expect to win matches like that.

Entirely disagree. We were not second best at all. And arguably had the better chances to win.

 

[RoyH1]

Rarely been happier or prouder after a draw. More of this

 

[always_hoping]

The 13 shots yesterday was most shots on goal for a Man United team in Anfield since 2011

Last ten visits to Anfield United didn't even hit double figures with shots on goal (6,7,7,6,6,9,8,2,8,6)

 

[Yakuza_devils]

I don't accept that 9 times out of 10 it will be a goal, maybe if you put that in front of an elite finisher like Ronaldo, RVN, Henry, Andy Cole, Aguero or Shearer. Even those guys wouldn't want that pass bobbled up at their shin like that right in front of goal. I can almost guarantee if they missed it, they'd be having a go at the player for not keeping it on the ground. When was the last time Maguire would have found himself in that situation? An elite finisher will instinctively adjust their movement and body to the ball. Same as the Amad one in the first half, a top striker adjusts their body movements and run and meets that header flush.

Roy Keane was talking about knowing your team mates and how Maguire should be expecting a bad pass there, which I thought was absolutely ridiculous. If anything Zirkzee should be the one knowing his team mate in that situation and giving him a decent pass on the ground that he can just sweep in first time.

It was a shocking pass for a professional footballer to play in that position.

As stated earlier, you can say what you think is your opinion. To me that was a good pass so near to the goal and it was the right decision to pass. The same for Amad's miss, it was a good cross from Dalot.

 

[Yakuza_devils]

This lot prove that they are very good players and easily good enough to challenge for Top 4. The question is whether Amorim could get them perform the same week in week out.

 

[Oranges038]

As stated earlier, you can say what you think is your opinion. To me that was a good pass so near to the goal and it was the right decision to pass. The same for Amad's miss, it was a good cross from Dalot.

A 5 yard pass bobbled up at shin height is not a good pass regardless of where on the pitch it is played. That should be on the ground so any payer can hit it first time with ease.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Yeah the XG feels massively off. It's not like we were hanging on for dear life and trying to play off the counter like previous trips to Anfield, I thought we were the better side.

Even if the xG is spot on using xG alone to decide which team had the better opportunities in a game is stupid. You could have a 4v1 break and someone makes a terrible decision to ignore a player who is free for a tap in and gets tackled while dawdling on the ball which is 0xG. A team can create loads of similarly promising attacking situations but they don’t create any xG without a shot at the end of them. Meanwhile the opposition can have a load of hopeful shots which are easily blocked or fly miles over the bar and they’re up at 1.0xG in no time.

xG was intended to identify trends over time and seems to be useful for that purpose. The bigger the data set the more useful it is. Slavishly using xG to decide which team was better in anny individual game shows a gross misunderstanding of the reason the stat was invented (and stats in general).

 

[Ghirahim]

Good performance. Utd targeted Trent Alexander-Arnold, who had an awful game.

 

[Denis' cuff]

Was Zirkzee deemed offside, or not?

 

[Sandikan]

I don't accept that 9 times out of 10 it will be a goal, maybe if you put that in front of an elite finisher like Ronaldo, RVN, Henry, Andy Cole, Aguero or Shearer. Even those guys wouldn't want that pass bobbled up at their shin like that right in front of goal. I can almost guarantee if they missed it, they'd be having a go at the player for not keeping it on the ground. When was the last time Maguire would have found himself in that situation? An elite finisher will instinctively adjust their movement and body to the ball. Same as the Amad one in the first half, a top striker adjusts their body movements and run and meets that header flush.

Roy Keane was talking about knowing your team mates and how Maguire should be expecting a bad pass there, which I thought was absolutely ridiculous. If anything Zirkzee should be the one knowing his team mate in that situation and giving him a decent pass on the ground that he can just sweep in first time.

It was a shocking pass for a professional footballer to play in that position.

Yep Keane speaks some absolute twaddle. It's like he makes a rash comment and has to then double down rather than admit an obvious heat of the moment error.

It's ridiculous for criticise a centre back for missing a chance that flashes to him in the 90th min at Anfield. Let alone with that bobbly pass.
You have to back yourself to shoot anyway from there as a striker.

 

[Sandikan]

Was Zirkzee deemed offside, or not?

It looked likely to he offside but you never do know until they do the lines.

Or like with Liverpool's equaliser just tell us it's OK and not bother proving it.

 

[Zed 101]

It is what it is. As long as you understand what it is and isn't it's useful. If it incorporated the things you point out it doesn't, it would have been worse than useless.

That is the issue though, XG is used by almost everybody as an indicator of how many goals a team should be scoring or conceding, when it does not do that at all, it is a tool for coaches showing the quality of positions their players are creating chances in, even then it is less useful than an actual pitch map showing the actual chances, and again who is getting those chances.

 

[Yakuza_devils]

Good performance. Utd targeted Trent Alexander-Arnold, who had an awful game.

Put it in another way, our players played extremely well and TAA had no chance against Bruno and Dalot regardless he had a good game or not.

 

[noodlehair]

Yep Keane speaks some absolute twaddle. It's like he makes a rash comment and has to then double down rather than admit an obvious heat of the moment error.

It's ridiculous for criticise a centre back for missing a chance that flashes to him in the 90th min at Anfield. Let alone with that bobbly pass.
You have to back yourself to shoot anyway from there as a striker.

Nah it'd have needed to be a worldie shot to beat Alison from there and then everyone would be giving him shite for not squaring it.

Though he did well to spot Maguire but just fecked up the pass. He was also probably offside so there is that, which gets Maguire off the hook either way.

I don't think that even makes our top 10 missed chances for the season anyway. Considering we've come up with stuff like multiple players having an open goal and then kicking it into each other so we can be offside.

It's a miracle every time we do score without it being an own goal or deflecting off a defender.

 

[erikcred]

Yep Keane speaks some absolute twaddle. It's like he makes a rash comment and has to then double down rather than admit an obvious heat of the moment error.

It's ridiculous for criticise a centre back for missing a chance that flashes to him in the 90th min at Anfield. Let alone with that bobbly pass.
You have to back yourself to shoot anyway from there as a striker.

I think there are some mitigating circumstances.

If you've been booed off the previous game and you're not a literal robot or Ronaldo, your confidence will be shot.

 

[Denis' cuff]

It looked likely to he offside but you never do know until they do the lines.

Or like with Liverpool's equaliser just tell us it's OK and not bother proving it.

Thanks mate. Only just managed to watch it and exactly what I thought. Didn’t think Z was but might be wrong and thought their equaliser looked very offside. Maybe wishful thinking but it’s fecking maddening how inconsistently they apply the checks.
They really got some favourable calls throughout. Surprise!!

 

[Glorio]

Sometimes it's not the result that matters, it's the friends experience we make along the way.

Fair enough. Dreams can't be buy I guess!

 

[Josh 76]

Does anyone think the Martinez celebration was over the top and that's why the Utd players lost control after that.

But when Amad scored, the players were more focused and did not it get to them emotionally.

 

[justsomebloke]

That is the issue though, XG is used by almost everybody as an indicator of how many goals a team should be scoring or conceding, when it does not do that at all, it is a tool for coaches showing the quality of positions their players are creating chances in, even then it is less useful than an actual pitch map showing the actual chances, and again who is getting those chances.

I agree it does have its clear limitations in that regard, though it is usually a reasonable proxy. The xG breakdown (of Opta's xG) in fbrefs match report illustrates the issues a little bit. According to this;

- Højlund's first half chance was 0.07
- Martinez's goal was 0.08
- Amads goal was 0.12
- De Ligt's 25th minute blocked header, which I cannot even remember, had a better xG than any of those (0.13)
- Maguire's big late chance was 0.33

Liverpool had 5 non-penalty finishes with a higher than 0.12 xG, none of whom were one of their goals. Gakpo's goal was a 0.06.

Intuitively, the top 3 above plus Gakpo's goal seem unreasonably low. I guess what that illustrates is that the metric doesn't capture situational aspects. It's one thing to shoot from the position Martinez shot, another to do so with a reasonable amount of time and no defenders able to interfere.

Anyway, the issue, as so often with statistics, is not the metric as such, but how people use it.

 

[The Brown Bull]

Another sore point, Robertson pulling Amad's shirt for about 20 seconds in from of the linesman and no call by him?
Amad just stops and shamed Oliver in giving the foul.

 

[justsomebloke]

Another sore point, Robertson pulling Amad's shirt for about 20 seconds in from of the linesman and no call by him?
Amad just stops and shamed Oliver in giving the foul.

Robertson wasn't shamed though, he just leapt straight into yapping, as if he'd been the victim of the biggest miscarriage of justice in the history of mankind. What a prick.

 

[Shiva87]

I don't accept that 9 times out of 10 it will be a goal, maybe if you put that in front of an elite finisher like Ronaldo, RVN, Henry, Andy Cole, Aguero or Shearer. Even those guys wouldn't want that pass bobbled up at their shin like that right in front of goal. I can almost guarantee if they missed it, they'd be having a go at the player for not keeping it on the ground. When was the last time Maguire would have found himself in that situation? An elite finisher will instinctively adjust their movement and body to the ball. Same as the Amad one in the first half, a top striker adjusts their body movements and run and meets that header flush.

Roy Keane was talking about knowing your team mates and how Maguire should be expecting a bad pass there, which I thought was absolutely ridiculous. If anything Zirkzee should be the one knowing his team mate in that situation and giving him a decent pass on the ground that he can just sweep in first time.

It was a shocking pass for a professional footballer to play in that position.

Completely unnecessary to go after Zirkzee like this for what was an okay pass. It wasn't the best, but it was the right decision, to a player in a better position, who had a very high xG chance to score. The ball was bobbling, but that does not even get talked about if the player at the end of it was not Harry Maguire - who the media and the English fans love. It would have been his redemption arc story, and its shocking that we can't just call it as it is - a Center Half's poor finishing skills.

He is not expected to be a high level finisher, and therefore, its not a big deal that he missed such a big chance.

Zikzee is a player low on confidence, has been maligned by the fans, and was doing his best to find some form. If we get on the backs of players in their first seasons, we wouldn't get a Vidic or Evra. Let's understand that he could be a Bebe MK-II - but even then, we shouldn't get on his back so early in his first season.

 

[Lentwood]

Completely unnecessary to go after Zirkzee like this for what was an okay pass. It wasn't the best, but it was the right decision, to a player in a better position, who had a very high xG chance to score. The ball was bobbling, but that does not even get talked about if the player at the end of it was not Harry Maguire - who the media and the English fans love. It would have been his redemption arc story, and its shocking that we can't just call it as it is - a Center Half's poor finishing skills.

He is not expected to be a high level finisher, and therefore, its not a big deal that he missed such a big chance.

Zikzee is a player low on confidence, has been maligned by the fans, and was doing his best to find some form. If we get on the backs of players in their first seasons, we wouldn't get a Vidic or Evra. Let's understand that he could be a Bebe MK-II - but even then, we shouldn't get on his back so early in his first season.

It's not about getting after Zirkzee or Maguire...it's simply stating that moments like this are the reason we aren't challenging for major trophies (amongst other issues!).

Had that been Gakpo passing to van Dijk in an identical position, it'd be a goal. Gakpo's pass would be better and I'd back van Dijk to score.

1st goal...De Ligt overcommiting to the block, United defenders not quite alive enough to be a yard closer, anticipating the chop back. Small details.

2nd goal...De Ligt unnecessarily raises his hand. Onana should probably save the penalty. Small details...bit important nonetheless

 

[Pogue Mahone]

It's not about getting after Zirkzee or Maguire...it's simply stating that moments like this are the reason we aren't challenging for major trophies (amongst other issues!).

Had that been Gakpo passing to van Dijk in an identical position, it'd be a goal. Gakpo's pass would be better and I'd back van Dijk to score.

1st goal...De Ligt overcommiting to the block, United defenders not quite alive enough to be a yard closer, anticipating the chop back. Small details.

2nd goal...De Ligt unnecessarily raises his hand. Onana should probably save the penalty. Small details...bit important nonetheless

You say all that as though VVD hadn’t just missed a far easier chance about a minute before Maguire’s.

And what about the “small details” that led up to both of the United goals?

 

[Oranges038]

Completely unnecessary to go after Zirkzee like this for what was an okay pass. It wasn't the best, but it was the right decision, to a player in a better position, who had a very high xG chance to score. The ball was bobbling, but that does not even get talked about if the player at the end of it was not Harry Maguire - who the media and the English fans love. It would have been his redemption arc story, and its shocking that we can't just call it as it is - a Center Half's poor finishing skills.

He is not expected to be a high level finisher, and therefore, its not a big deal that he missed such a big chance.

Zikzee is a player low on confidence, has been maligned by the fans, and was doing his best to find some form. If we get on the backs of players in their first seasons, we wouldn't get a Vidic or Evra. Let's understand that he could be a Bebe MK-II - but even then, we shouldn't get on his back so early in his first season.

High xg doesn't mean shit in that situation, because the pass was poor which meant that even was he right under the cross bar he could very easily have missed it.


It's not about going after a player, I don't care who played the pass because it was a shocker. If it was Bruno Fernandes, Garnacho, Dalot etc. I'd say the same thing. It's just pass basic appreciation. It's an awful pass to give any team mate in that situation, regardless of who is on the end of it.

It's moments like this that are the reason this team and these players mess up attacks, miss chances and don't score enough goals. Granted he may have been pulled back for offside, but that shouldn't even come into it. I've never in my life seen a bobbly pass up at someone's shin been described as a good pass. A little bit of pass appreciation there, make sure you give a good pass and give your team mate a chance to make a good connection on the ball and it could be a last minute winner.

 

[GaryLifo]

Morning everyone. What a lovely day to be alive. I'm going to bask in the glow of that performance and the fact it puts down a marker to those cnuts in terms of being arrogant and thinking they only had to turn up to beat us.

Salah seems to think he's actually some sort of gift from the gods the way he celebrated that shit penalty he nearly missed. No shame at all that lot.

Slot finally showing his bitter side. Low block, long balls, better team... all total bollocks. Like Keane said, what are united supposed to do, play it short so you can win the ball high up the pitch and execute your normal game plan? The bald cnut took great delight in smugly detailing how he took the piss out of ten Hag's tactics. Well, yesterday the shoe was on the other foot.

Let's hope other teams see that and go there with less fear and start taking points at Anfield.

 

[justsomebloke]

It's not about getting after Zirkzee or Maguire...it's simply stating that moments like this are the reason we aren't challenging for major trophies (amongst other issues!).

Had that been Gakpo passing to van Dijk in an identical position, it'd be a goal. Gakpo's pass would be better and I'd back van Dijk to score.

I think you're all reading far too much into a single situation. What does it say about Maguire's finishing skills? Not much. What does it say about our ability to score timely goals? Not much either. What would have happened if that was Gakpo passing to VVD? Nobody has any clue.

These things are not proofs or markers of solid, causal facts. It's all probabilities. Sometimes a non-finisher like Martinez roofs an unsaveable shot from a low-percentage position, sometimes Erling Haaland misses an open-net tap in. It doesn't tell you anything, no individual situation does. And as far as probabilities go, people habitually vastly overestimate the likelihood of scoring from a given opportunity.

 

[Lentwood]

You say all that as though VVD hadn’t just missed a far easier chance about a minute before Maguire’s.

And what about the “small details” that led up to both of the United goals?

The van Dijk one came at him quickly through a crowd. It's just an instinctive reaction.

And you're right, Liverpool were also uncharacteristically sloppy for the first goal in particular. The difference is it's unusual for them to be sloppy. We make big mistakes on a regular basis, both when attacking and defending.

 

[Lentwood]

I think you're all reading far too much into a single situation. What does it say about Maguire's finishing skills? Not much. What does it say about our ability to score timely goals? Not much either. What would have happened if that was Gakpo passing to VVD? Nobody has any clue.

These things are not proofs or markers of solid, causal facts. It's all probabilities. Sometimes a non-finisher like Martinez roofs an unsaveable shot from a low-percentage position, sometimes Erling Haaland misses an open-net tap in. It doesn't tell you anything, no individual situation does. And as far as probabilities go, people habitually vastly overestimate the likelihood of scoring from a given opportunity.

Yes but my point is / was...we regularly waste good positions when attacking due to poor decisions / execution and we regularly make calamitous cock-ups in defensive situations...hence why we are 13th!

I'm not reading anything into one situation (which you're right about, it wasn't that much of a slam dunk chance)...I am more commenting on our general sloppiness at both ends of the pitch in key moments.

Some of is, as Amorim said yesterday, is purely about focus and approaching the game in the right way

 

[Kaizane]

The game was proof of concept that Amorim's system is viable. Since when has this team gone to Anfield and seen an even amount of the ball, had over 10 shots and looked comfortable in large spells? I don't buy into the pundit's narrative that Liverpool had a stinker. We affected their game, and they played how they played as a result.

There's a long way to go, we need a striker who can make the ball stick when it's played into him, bring others in play and run all game. Doesn't even need to be a worldie finisher, but it's clear Hojlund needs help.

Backup in midfield is urgent. Kobbie is showing glimpses of the player that got us all excited last season. Ugarte is probably the first name on the team sheet right now.

I love Maz but he's not a wingback. Dalot had his best game at LWB yesterday, but against better defenders that TAA, he struggles. I'd like to see him get a run of games on his favoured wing to fairly assess.

Is Bruno starting to adapt under Amorim? Yesterday we saw a far more controlled part of his game. Having Ugarte put in the miles behind him is the key, I think. More of those types of performances and that's one of the CAM positions sorted. I'm sure Amad will only grow into that position as well.

The writing is on the wall for Rashford and probably even Garnacho, sadly. I get the impression he and Amorim are at a bit of a crossroads with each other at the moment. He's a LW and that's it. No point in trying to shoehorn such a talent into any other position. I personally believe it's only a matter of time.

I know I'm parroting what most have been saying, but yesterday crystalised it. LWB, ST and CM are urgent. Replace or reinforce those positions, and we'll be alright.

 

[justsomebloke]

Yes but my point is / was...we regularly waste good positions when attacking due to poor decisions / execution and we regularly make calamitous cock-ups in defensive situations...hence why we are 13th!

I'm not reading anything into one situation (which you're right about, it wasn't that much of a slam dunk chance)...I am more commenting on our general sloppiness at both ends of the pitch in key moments.

Some of is, as Amorim said yesterday, is purely about focus and approaching the game in the right way

I'm with you there. Also, it is of course a total bore and contrary to human nature to view these situations as essentially a weighted coin flip every time, even though that's what they are. I was yelling at Maguire (or at the TV screen, at any rate) and thinking "Well isn't that just typical" as much as anyone.

 

[wolvored]

That is because XG is an absolute crock of shite, the amount of focus on it absolutely does my head in

Agree with this. Don’t understand it and no one I know can understand it, or see its use either. I am 65, so maybe I am stuck in my ways.

 

[rooneyberbatov]

 

[mctrials23]

I don't buy into the pundit's narrative that Liverpool had a stinker. We affected their game, and they played how they played as a result.

Because everyone around Liverpool has this narrative that Liverpool never get beaten, they only lose because they didn't play well. The other team didn't stifle them or limit their chances or overwhelm them, they got lucky or Liverpool were just awful. The number of times I hear Liverpool fans say "I can't remember the last time we played that badly" or "that was the worst we have played this season" when they lose or draw is ridiculous.

They are fantastically arrogant and Liverpool and City are the media darlings so that view gets parroted. Keane will generally tell the truth on games. He appreciates when a team has done a number on someone else. He doesn't look for an excuse for why the big team lost. He appreciates the fact there are always two teams out there.

 

[JBG]

Basically my reaction as well... I was so ready to celebrate, I just fell on my knees from my sofa. Would've been such a perfect ending to that match and probably given the players such a huge confidence boost going forward. The performance and result still will give them a confidence boost, but if that went in...

I'm still happy tbh, I was hoping for a draw, considering our awful form and the form Pool was in, so can't be disappointed at all.

Hopefully we smash Southampton by at least 4 goals. (Totally forgot we're up against "the best team in England" before Southampton during this post...)

 

[DeludedOptimism]

I have re-watched the game (with less emotion) and whilst its only one performance, it has put a lot of nonsense claims to bed:

1. The formation cant work in the PL
2. The players will never learn how to play it
3. The manager is out of his depth

Had it not been for a harsh (but fair penalty), we could have walked away with three well earned points against a Liverpool side who were not "off of the pace" as much as the media will have you believe.

Dalot ran their right hand side ragged with constant runs on the outside, to the point the extra cover needed left gaps in the middle of the park, this is one small example of us dictating Liverpool's issues.

There wasnt a single period in the game where I thought "Liverpool have another gear here".

Great performance, fair result and lots to be optimistic about.

 

[laughtersassassin]

Not a doubt in my mind upon reviewing the decisions again today that whe where robbed.

Refs quite clearly are against us.

Newcastle handball goal, Van Dijk handball with penalty not given only for Liverpool to then get a penalty for De Ligt handball and Nunez blatant red card ignored.

Refs don't want us to win and they do their very best to make it extremely hard for us to do so.

It's clear as day at this point