Spurs and Newcastle would have been a stupid gamble for Moyes' career, especially as they're not a particularly big step up (if at all).
Avram Grant and Di Matteo were promoted at Chelsea, with the rest of the managers being the fancy foreign types with big reputations. Mark Hughes was a remnant of the Shinawatra era and was axed soon after the Sheiks came in.
Moyes is a smart bloke and doesn't strike me as the type who wants to throw away his career for a nice payday. Plus if he's being groomed for the United job (which IMO he is if Fergie's comments are anything to go by) why on earth would he want to go to another club?
If 5 years ago, he believes that he's being groomed for the United job because SAF hints it so.... he's a bigger loon than everyone will ever thought
I mean, your opposition team hinted you could succeed his job, and you bank all your life's carreer for it to be true???
Besides, he finishes between 5-8th every year, are we gonna stoop so low we can only attract managers of that calibre? There's not much competition on the 5-10 range, the usual suspect will be newcastle, everton, tottenham, Liverpool, and a few rotating flavor of the season (swansea, norwich, etc)
So... maintaining a status quo and finishing just where you're expected to finish is a sign of great manager? And I don't really buy investing in youth, Everton are skint, off course Moyes are forced to go down in his academy for fresh talent, My bet is that he spent more time there ensuring there's good enough talent for him not to buy abroad.
It's one thing to unearth talent good enough for Premier league midtable, but it's another thing to unearth local lad good enough to play for Manchester United.
Sorry, I don't any agenda on Moyes, he's a good and loyal manager on his own right, but after so long he hasn't really improve Everton. He never challenges the top four, nor making any surprises at the cup run, nor having a blast at Europa League.
Factor in :
1. he'll need to be experienced in Europe
2. He'll need to be Experienced in rotating the squad since United are probably having 4-5 competitions every calendar year
3. Managing players having more individual honors than whole Everton history
4. Media pressure which undoubtedly will be folds after the retirement of SAF
5. Fan's and probably players' doubt if things get bumpy, even for a few match
6. He's not really tested to look for players in the 30M+ range, which is another ballgame as to compared with finding mediocre player to play for Everton
And I don't believe easilly we will give him time and support, if he loses 3 in a trot, the fans will be on his back faster than you can imagine. Things like this escalates quickly into a crisis, and we'll be facing a bigger gamble whether to stick with him or appointing someone new.
And the stake of all that is 25 years of mediocrity ala Liverpool should Moyes failed. It's not merely about trophyless season, we can live with that, but if we go a few good years without trophy after SAF, that'll quickly sent the whole thing spiraling down.
Top players will doubt our ambitions, We can't pay top dollar, and the local lads are probably poached more easilly by Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal, Chelsea, and god knows which club's the next sugar daddy funded.
We'll become Liverpool, and again it's not that I'm a glory hunter, but we're at the biggest decision making process in the club history, and I for once would gladly put aside romantism for 5 years of stability after SAF. Mourinho is the safest bet for the long term winning tradition of Manchester United.
Moyes might / might not succeed, same as mourinho, but as I can't see the future, I can only put my bet on the one with better odds.