in my eyes, Messi certainly won the ballon d'or the moment Argies won the final and he got crowned as the best player.
and yes, I'm aware the award isn't about who elevates his team more. but... City casually completed treble without Haaland doing anything vs Madrid in both ties, vs Inter in final, vs United in final... I don't think that's a big stain on his season, but City have 7 players in Uefa team of the season. Rodri was named as the best CL player this season, KDB was the best assister, Pep the best manager. in short, they can afford him to go missing since they seemed inevitable from the start.
compared to that, you can't really see Argentina winning that world cup without Messi in his best form.