Jeremy Corbyn - Not Not Labour Party(?), not a Communist (BBC)

Sweet Square said:
:lol:

Ok then. Also Morecambe voted leave right ?


What ?

Actually I don't want to know.
Click to expand...

She accused Nick Boles of creepily hitting on Jess Phillips, apparently unaware of the fact that Nick Boles is gay. Rather than backing down or apologising she deleted her account for a few days and then came back pretending nothing had happened.

In fairness, Boles's tweet was a bit weird and I do actually quite like Foster normally, but she was wrong then and she's attacking a straw man here.
 
That'sHernandez said:
Struggling to see what's funny about local high streets being decimated, homelessness and a rise in the need for food banks in the area being compounded by the UK leaving the EU?

Unfortunately, yes, Lancaster district voted 51.1% - 48.9% in favour of leave. I don't see how that's relevant to Corbyn wasting his time by going to a non-marginal seat held by Conservative MP David Morris for the last nine years.
Click to expand...
It is a marginal, only 1400 votes in it in 2017 and 900 in 2010.
 
That'sHernandez said:
Unfortunately, yes, Lancaster district voted 51.1% - 48.9% in favour of leave. I don't see how that's relevant to Corbyn wasting his time by going to a non-marginal seat held by Conservative MP David Morris for the last nine years.
Click to expand...

Wait, is Morecambe non-marginal? Morris won by less than 1.5k votes, Lib Dems themselves got 1.7k alone in the constituency. Last time Labour won Morecambe and Lunesdale was the last time they won the general so arguably they need to win places like Morecambe to succeed overall.
 
Brexit isn't Corbyn's fault and it would be daft for him to have been there today.

It's moronic that the biggest mistake the Tories have made in living memory is being used as a stick to beat him with

Shame on you.
 
Historically it's a safe Tory seat and since Labour's implosion following Blair being forced out, the Conservatives have held it. And considering they held it in what was supposedly a massive win for Corbyn in the last GE, I don't see the seat changing hands again any time soon. Alas, I can't predict the future, however.
 
beedoubleyou said:
Brexit isn't Corbyn's fault and it would be daft for him to have been there today.

It's moronic that the biggest mistake the Tories have made in living memory is being used as a stick to beat him with

Shame on you.
Click to expand...

Who's blaming Corbyn for Brexit? All I'm saying is he's blatantly a Lexiter and has no interest in seeing the country remain in the EU. If he did, he would have postponed his pointless jamboree in Morecambe and gone to the march today. He's every much as complicit as May because he has offered absolute zero opposition to her in the last three years.
 
That'sHernandez said:
Historically it's a safe Tory seat and since Labour's implosion following Blair being forced out, the Conservatives have held it. And considering they held it in what was supposedly a massive win for Corbyn in the last GE, I don't see the seat changing hands again any time soon. Alas, I can't predict the future, however.
Click to expand...

Probably will have to if Labour are to win an election, that I can't predict under Corbyn. It's no longer a safe Tory seat however so understandable Labour would target it.
 
beedoubleyou said:
Brexit isn't Corbyn's fault and it would be daft for him to have been there today.

It's moronic that the biggest mistake the Tories have made in living memory is being used as a stick to beat him with

Shame on you.
Click to expand...
Brexit isn't Corbyn's fault? He campaigned for Brexit in his manifesto at the last general election and voted for article 50 in parliament, which is precisely why are where we are today. How is it possibly not his fault?
 
Some of you purposefully choose to ignore the obvious point at times. I'm sure you can figure out why the leader of the labour party isn't at a people's vote march, we've been having the electoral math debate for years now. It would be clearly damaging to the party whilst offering no benefit.

As long as he supports the vote at crunch time i don't give a shit if he's preaching to the choir (which is what you same people moaned about previously)
 
That'sHernandez said:
Struggling to see what's funny about local high streets being decimated, homelessness and a rise in the need for food banks in the area being compounded by the UK leaving the EU?

Unfortunately, yes, Lancaster district voted 51.1% - 48.9% in favour of leave. I don't see how that's relevant to Corbyn wasting his time by going to a non-marginal seat held by Conservative MP David Morris for the last nine years.
Click to expand...
I was laughing at(In fairness I edited out as it seemed a bit mean)that you somehow know how people of Morecambe feel and it just happens to be the exact view point you hold.

Why I pointed out that district voted leave is because I somehow doubt a lot of people are bother about Corbyn being on the march in London(Still I'm just going on the voting numbers). Its hardly a remain stronghold. Also Morecambe is marginal seat.

NinjaFletch said:
She accused Nick Boles of creepily hitting on Jess Phillips, apparently unaware of the fact that Nick Boles is gay. Rather than backing down or apologising she deleted her account for a few days and then came back pretending nothing had happened.

In fairness, Boles's tweet was a bit weird and I do actually quite like Foster normally, but she was wrong then and she's attacking a straw man here.
Click to expand...
Strong twitter game, never under any circumstance apologise.

''The greatest victory is that which requires no tweeting.''

But yeah not a great looks.

Edit - Boles tweet is pretty gross - There is something about @jessphillips that I find irresistible. I would walk over hot coals for her.
 
Last edited:
That'sHernandez said:
Who's blaming Corbyn for Brexit? All I'm saying is he's blatantly a Lexiter and has no interest in seeing the country remain in the EU. If he did, he would have postponed his pointless jamboree in Morecambe and gone to the march today. He's every much as complicit as May because he has offered absolute zero opposition to her in the last three years.
Click to expand...

I wasn't quoting you, but to even suggest he is in the same field of complacency is moronic. I don't want to swallow it, but he's always offered a more palletable alternative to what May has suggested and has never even been given a platform for it to be an option.
 
Smores said:
Some of you purposefully choose to ignore the obvious point at times. I'm sure you can figure out why the leader of the labour party isn't at a people's vote march, we've been having the electoral math debate for years now. It would be clearly damaging to the party whilst offering no benefit.

As long as he supports the vote at crunch time i don't give a shit if he's preaching to the choir (which is what you same people moaned about previously)
Click to expand...
Crunch time like the vote on the withdrawal bill you mean? We know where he stood on that one.
 
Smores said:
Some of you purposefully choose to ignore the obvious point at times. I'm sure you can figure out why the leader of the labour party isn't at a people's vote march, we've been having the electoral math debate for years now. It would be clearly damaging to the party whilst offering no benefit.

As long as he supports the vote at crunch time i don't give a shit if he's preaching to the choir (which is what you same people moaned about previously)
Click to expand...

If that’s the case, why was Tom Watson permitted to speak at the march? The argument doesn’t hold when all the evidence points to remaining in the EU doesn’t much tickle Jeremy Corbyn’s fancy.
 
beedoubleyou said:
Brexit isn't Corbyn's fault and it would be daft for him to have been there today.

It's moronic that the biggest mistake the Tories have made in living memory is being used as a stick to beat him with

Shame on you.
Click to expand...

Yes, the Tories get most of the blame but not all of it.

I am afraid Brexit is corbyns fault... and Mays fault... and the bloody useless lot of them. He has failed to lead, failed to oppose and failed to influence. He’s been shifty and disingenuous. A plague on both Tory and labour houses.
 
Sweet Square said:
I was laughing at(In fairness I edited out as it seemed a bit mean)that you somehow know how people of Morecambe feel and it just happens to be the exact view point you hold.
Click to expand...

Granted it’s anecdotal but most people I know and speak to have some level of disdain for Corbyn, I know two or three people who support him. The rest think he’s well meaning but a bit useless. Perhaps I was a bit extreme in saying most despise him but I am fairly certain most wouldn’t give two shits about his visit.

For what it’s worth I will probably end up voting Labour in the next GE in spite of him.
 
That'sHernandez said:
If that’s the case, why was Tom Watson permitted to speak at the march? The argument doesn’t hold when all the evidence points to remaining in the EU doesn’t much tickle Jeremy Corbyn’s fancy.
Click to expand...

Because what Tom Watson does won't be held against the leadership, which you've clearly demonstrated by not attributing Watsons presence at the march to Corbyn.

If you're going to start making Corbyn permitting him being there relevant you can't then also say he's not supportive unless you think sending Watson is sabotage.
 
Sweet Square said:
Strong twitter game, never under any circumstance apologise.

But yeah really that is quite odd.

Edit - Boles tweet is pretty gross

There is something about @jessphillips that I find irresistible. I would walk over hot coals for her.
Click to expand...

Yeah, it's a bizarre thing to tweet given the usual associations of that phrase, but it was pretty clear from their interaction that it was meant non-sexually.
 
That'sHernandez said:
Granted it’s anecdotal but most people I know and speak to have some level of disdain for Corbyn, I know two or three people who support him. The rest think he’s well meaning but a bit useless. Perhaps I was a bit extreme in saying most despise him but I am fairly certain most wouldn’t give two shits about his visit.
Click to expand...
Oh yeah I didn't mean to come across mean spirited(Although that always seem to be the case) and I'm sure he got plenty of feck off on the door step.

That'sHernandez said:
For what it’s worth I will probably end up voting Labour in the next GE in spite of him.
Click to expand...
Welcome to me in 2010 & 2015.

NinjaFletch said:
Yeah, it's a bizarre thing to tweet given the usual associations of that phrase, but it was pretty clear from their interaction that it was meant non-sexually.
Click to expand...
Fair enough. And weirder for anyone other the Philips to comment on it, in all honestly( she didn't seem to have a problem with the comment).

But thats twitter I guess. While there's worse things in the world I can't image having to be on twitter for your job does get things for your mindset.
 
Smores said:
Some of you purposefully choose to ignore the obvious point at times. I'm sure you can figure out why the leader of the labour party isn't at a people's vote march, we've been having the electoral math debate for years now. It would be clearly damaging to the party whilst offering no benefit.

As long as he supports the vote at crunch time i don't give a shit if he's preaching to the choir (which is what you same people moaned about previously)
Click to expand...

I might have missed that math. Why would it be damaging to the party when 2/3s of labour voters are pro remain?
 
beedoubleyou said:
Brexit isn't Corbyn's fault and it would be daft for him to have been there today.

It's moronic that the biggest mistake the Tories have made in living memory is being used as a stick to beat him with

Shame on you.
Click to expand...

The Tories are primarily to blame for Brexit, though everyone in Parliament is somewhat culpable. But ultimately I don’t expect the Tories to care about people like me or represent my views. Labour I do, and that’s why it’s so depressing that Labour have ended up with a pro-Brexit policy and bothers me more than what the Tories do.

Smores said:
Some of you purposefully choose to ignore the obvious point at times. I'm sure you can figure out why the leader of the labour party isn't at a people's vote march, we've been having the electoral math debate for years now. It would be clearly damaging to the party whilst offering no benefit.

As long as he supports the vote at crunch time i don't give a shit if he's preaching to the choir (which is what you same people moaned about previously)
Click to expand...

If this was an anti-austerity march, or an anti-war march or a march in support of a General Strike, he would have been there. Electoral calculus wouldn’t have crossed his mind.
 
The Tories are largely to blame for Brexit but Cornyn has revealed himself as a useless chocolate teapot of a politician when we need visionary leaders to step up.
 
MadMike said:
I might have missed that math. Why would it be damaging to the party when 2/3s of labour voters are pro remain?
Click to expand...

Because those 2/3rds will carry on voting Labour but the 1/3rd who feel betrayed won't. Not that it works like that anyway but the early analysis dictated they'd lose a lot of key constituencies.

Arguably Corbyn should have taken that loss and hoped that the lost constituencies came back with his successor(s) but since they're all heavily remain I'm not sure this generation of Labour would be forgiven.

However I'm fairly confident taking a pure remain position wouldn't have made one bit of difference in parliament.
 
Smores said:
Because those 2/3rds will carry on voting Labour but the 1/3rd who feel betrayed won't. Not that it works like that anyway but the early analysis dictated they'd lose a lot of key constituencies.

Arguably Corbyn should have taken that loss and hoped that the lost constituencies came back with his successor(s) but since they're all heavily remain I'm not sure this generation of Labour would be forgiven.

However I'm fairly confident taking a pure remain position wouldn't have made one bit of difference in parliament.
Click to expand...

That doesn’t make much sense to me. Why would leavers be put off remain backing labour leadership but remainers be ok with one that is leave backing in all but name? In larger numbers too, since remainers are the majority. And if it’s to attract new/swing leave voters with no strong party affiliation, why wouldn’t they vote Tory or UKIP if Brexit means so much to them?

Voters might be dumb but not that dumb. Let’s not forget that firstly, it’s the party line that to break the impasse a 2nd referendum is required. Secondly, taking a “neutral” position, while the Tory party is effectively controlled by ERG and the de facto legal state is no-deal Brexit, means he’s backing no deal Brexit in all but name by not throwing everything behind the only viable alternative.

I don’t know what the math is based on, but the math I’ve seen places Corbyn bottom of the approval ratings with one of the lowest scores of all time among even historical leaders, mostly because of his handling of Brexit. And I don’t think a party leader has ever won a GE with such ratings. May is in the same doldrums but the Tories would never let her lead them to another election.

I dunno. It sounds more like made up math to validate Jezza’s world view to me.
 
MadMike said:
That doesn’t make much sense to me. Why would leavers be put off remain backing labour leadership but remainers be ok with one that is leave backing in all but name? In larger numbers too, since remainers are the majority. And if it’s to attract new/swing leave voters with no strong party affiliation, why wouldn’t they vote Tory or UKIP if Brexit means so much to them?

Voters might be dumb but not that dumb. Let’s not forget that firstly, it’s the party line that to break the impasse a 2nd referendum is required. Secondly, taking a “neutral” position, while the Tory party is effectively controlled by ERG and the de facto legal state is no-deal Brexit, means he’s backing no deal Brexit in all but name by not throwing everything behind the only viable alternative.

I don’t know what the math is based on, but the math I’ve seen places Corbyn bottom of the approval ratings with one of the lowest scores of all time among even historical leaders, mostly because of his handling of Brexit. And I don’t think a party leader has ever won a GE with such ratings. May is in the same doldrums but the Tories would never let her lead them to another election.

I dunno. It sounds more like made up math to validate Jezza’s world view to me.
Click to expand...

Why? Because Leavers are dogmatic simpletons, we know they follow a unique outlook.

I don't see many Labour remainers voting for the Tories any time soon.
 
Tbh, who really gives a shit? He wants brexit so there's not point of him being disingenuous about it.. There'll be a leadership election at some point in the future and we can start putting things tight.
 
Smores said:
Why? Because Leavers are dogmatic simpletons, we know they follow a unique outlook.

I don't see many Labour remainers voting for the Tories any time soon.
Click to expand...

Worth remembering in this discussion that, in safe Labour seats there was a swing to the Tories in 2017 precisely because they were seen as being more 'Brexit-y' than Labour. Votes that Labour lost to UKIP in 2015 in the North East went to the Tories in 2017. On that basis it's fair to assume that if Labour had gone full Remain before the snap election they'd had lost seats like Bishop Auckland and possibly Darlington and seen unprecedented challenges in places that used to be safe-seats. If, post-referendum, Corbyn had done what most people on here are trashing him for not doing, we'd currently have a massive Tory majority in Parliament and May could have gotten whatever old shit through the house.

Which isn't to say I'm not frustrated with how he's dealt with things since 2017, but ultimately he's banking on another election and he's assumed that the Tory strategy in that eventuality will be to chip away at the Leave-leaning section of Labour's base in the hopes that it loses them enough votes to swing a few seats blue. Given that I've been getting Tory targeted Facebook ads for months criticising Labour, my sitting MP and Corbyn for 'betraying Brexit', I'd say he's correct in that assumption. May being ousted would also increase the likelihood of a general election. I can understand therefore why he's not come out swinging for the peoples' vote, although if it came down to the wire and he didn't vote for it I'd be as critical as anyone.
 
Smores said:
Why? Because Leavers are dogmatic simpletons, we know they follow a unique outlook.

I don't see many Labour remainers voting for the Tories any time soon.
Click to expand...

But they don't need to vote Tories; they could vote Lib Dems or not vote at all. Labour are the opposition, not the government, they need to motivate their supporters to the polls in the case of an election and swing any neutrals to their favour. By playing neutral, you achieve none of those things. The popularity ratings don't lie.
 
MadMike said:
But they don't need to vote Tories; they could vote Lib Dems or not vote at all. Labour are the opposition, not the government, they need to motivate their supporters to the polls in the case of an election and swing any neutrals to their favour. By playing neutral, you achieve none of those things. The popularity ratings don't lie.
Click to expand...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...next-prime-minster-odds-bookies-a8834791.html

Corbyn bookmakers' favourite to become next prime minister as Theresa May's Brexit crisis deepens.
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...next-prime-minster-odds-bookies-a8834791.html

Corbyn bookmakers' favourite to become next prime minister as Theresa May's Brexit crisis deepens.
Click to expand...

You know how bookmakers work, right? They balance the books by adjusting the odds based on the bets they receive. If I go and put £5m down on Corbyn winning the election, I can change the bookies odds while in no way or shape increasing the probability of Corbyn actually winning the elections.
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...next-prime-minster-odds-bookies-a8834791.html

Corbyn bookmakers' favourite to become next prime minister as Theresa May's Brexit crisis deepens.
Click to expand...
This misunderstanding of odds has been explained several times, but here we go again:

The odds you have quoted are for several leaders, Corbyn is favourite because being a settled leader he is the only Labour choice, whereas there are several Tory choices due to a likely change of leadership. If you look at the odds for a party winning, as below, the Tories are odds-on favourites. It is extremely unusual for an opposition to be so far behind at this stage of the electoral cycle, and the most likely explanations are that the government is regarded as being much better than usual, or the opposition much worse. Take your pick.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats

To be fair to yourself the Independent headline is totally misleading, but then again if you're going to post it then you should really look into it a bit more
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...next-prime-minster-odds-bookies-a8834791.html

Corbyn bookmakers' favourite to become next prime minister as Theresa May's Brexit crisis deepens.
Click to expand...
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister

He's 4th favourite by the looks of it
Gove 4/1
Liddington 4/1
Johnson 8/1
Corbyn 10/1

Perhaps more telling are the following two set of odds for the next general election
Most seats

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats

Conservative ahead of labour

And overall majority odds

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/overall-majority

No overall majority (hung parliament)11/10
Conservatives 15/8
Labour 4/1
 
jeff_goldblum said:
Worth remembering in this discussion that, in safe Labour seats there was a swing to the Tories in 2017 precisely because they were seen as being more 'Brexit-y' than Labour. Votes that Labour lost to UKIP in 2015 in the North East went to the Tories in 2017. On that basis it's fair to assume that if Labour had gone full Remain before the snap election they'd had lost seats like Bishop Auckland and possibly Darlington and seen unprecedented challenges in places that used to be safe-seats. If, post-referendum, Corbyn had done what most people on here are trashing him for not doing, we'd currently have a massive Tory majority in Parliament and May could have gotten whatever old shit through the house.
Click to expand...

I can't agree with that assumption. In 2017 essentially both two major parties were endorsing Brexit and obviously Tories with Bojo, Davies, JRM and the like were more Brexit-y. Therefore staunch Brexiteers and swing voters went for them instead. So how does the strategy of being pro-Brexit or neutral work then? The Tories swallowed the whole UKIP vote in 2017 anyway and won the election.

As an aside it's worth mentioning that, ironically, if the Tories had a achieved a clear majority they wouldn't have gone to bed with the DUP. So their MP base would likely have been more moderate and the influence of ERG likely diminished. With whatever implications that would have about May's red lines and ability to get her deal passed through parliament instead of us heading off a cliff.

Now you're also ignoring the fact that there also swing voters who are remainers and would have coalesced around Labour had their stance been pro-Remain. Labour could have carved up a piece of the Lib Dem or SNP vote if they had offered a pro-remain alternative. For example, I generally vote Lib Dem but I'm also aware they are far from winning an election. And if in 2017 Labour had became the pro-Remain alternative to the Tories I would have gladly backed them because that issue is significant enough that it warrants casting a vote where it matters most. But they didn't, so I persisted with Lib Dems who were the only ones staunchly pro-Remain.

This is anecdotal, obviously, but so is the assumption that backing Remain would have been even worse for Labour.
 
Last edited:
711 said:
This misunderstanding of odds has been explained several times, but here we go again:

The odds you have quoted are for several leaders, Corbyn is favourite because being a settled leader he is the only Labour choice, whereas there are several Tory choices due to a likely change of leadership. If you look at the odds for a party winning, as below, the Tories are odds-on favourites. It is extremely unusual for an opposition to be so far behind at this stage of the electoral cycle, and the most likely explanations are that the government is regarded as being much better than most, or the opposition much worse. Take your pick.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats

To be fair to yourself the Independent headline is totally misleading, but then again if you're going to post it then you should really look into it a bit more
Click to expand...
The report is also old, since the leaks emerged last night that May could soon be gone three Tory MP's have moved ahead of Corbyn (Gove, Lidington and Johnson) which obviously makes sense because that would take place before any general election. The link you've given is the more relevant one, who would win the most seats, and the polls do suggest that the Tories are a reasonable way ahead at the moment which I find inexplicable and depressing, despite not being a particularly big fan of Corbyn's, given how much of a shambles the Tories are at the moment and how damaging their government has been over the last 9 years.
 
sun_tzu said:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister

He's 4th favourite by the looks of it
Gove 4/1
Liddington 4/1
Johnson 8/1
Corbyn 10/1

Perhaps more telling are the following two set of odds for the next general election
Most seats

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats

Conservative ahead of labour

And overall majority odds

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/overall-majority

No overall majority (hung parliament)11/10
Conservatives 15/8
Labour 4/1
Click to expand...

Given Corbyn's awful position on Brexit has allegedly been a way of boosting the electoral math in his favour, that's a pretty grim portent. Especially given the government he's opposing is literally inept.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.