Here's a question - do we think Corbyn is more in tune with the "working class" core vote of Labour than previous recent leaders?
Good question, a very deep question for the party. To illustrate the problem Labour has, ask yourself a simple question - why the feck do working class people vote Tory? Seriously, it is hard to think of a time post-45 when having a Tory Government would have made working class people better off, or indeed anything but much worse off in numerous ways. And yet they do vote Tory. In great numbers.
The history of the party however sheds some light on it. When Labour finally arrived in 1945 after a few false starts, they were a coalition of groups, but broadly speaking it was a mix of socially conservative working class groups who saw Labour as a vehicle to finally gain equality, and progressive middle class groups who were stimulated intellectually by the whole movement. These two groups have made up the heart of the party since then.
Since the last of the Atlee crew slowly disappeared from late 60s onwards, however, the trendsetters in the party have been increasingly from the middle class intellectual set, mainly social liberals, and much more liberal than the 40s lot (particularly post Jenkins). This wasn’t some overnight thing, but has been a definite trend. Certainly the early 80s vision of the far left would have been bizarre to Clement Atlee, who was a full on patriot - pro-monarchy, pro-military, pro-nuclear weapons. The consequence is that the proportion of working class people voting for the party has been on a downward trend since the early 70s.
Even though both parts of the party shared aims they never fully shared their values. The reality is that social liberals just don’t
get a lot of social conservatism. Run through the Guardian website on that issue with not singing the national anthem, and the thing that no-one truly understands is why some people
like singing the national anthem, why they
like the Queen and why they consider it important. As George Orwell wrote
"It is a strange fact, but it is unquestionably true that almost any English intellectual would feel more ashamed of standing to attention during “God save the King” than of stealing from a poor box."
And yet social conservatism is prevalent amongst the working classes. Social conservatives are twice as likely to be working class than affluent. This is why many working class people vote Tory - because the Tories share their socially conservative values. Working class social conservatives may be better off under Labour, but they connect with the Tories in many other ways. Hence its never been a simple decision.
Our vote amongst social conservatives has fallen by almost a third in 10 years, and all the studies show that its the classic social conservative fears that are at the heart of it. In 2015 the main reasons that social conservatives gave for voting as they did was immigration, toughness on welfare, standing up for ourselves abroad, a desire to leave Europe and financial responsibility. Peace and loveism didn't feature.
My worry with Corbyn then is simple. Working class social conservatives in places like the seaside towns, Essex, the Midlands, and so on get put off New Labour because they see the party as a bunch of North London intellectual progressives. New Labour ends and we give them Ed Miliband - a North London intellectual progressive. Then we give them Jeremy Corbyn - a North London intellectual progressive. Except this time we’ve gone the whole nut roast; the full on bean eating, bike riding, sandal wearing, pacifist ideal. The most liberal of all the liberals we could find.
The initial evidence isn't great. Both today's ComRes and this weeks YouGov poll both suggest positive support for Corbyn is lower amongst the working class groupings than the middle class and affluent groupings. Either way, this will probably tell us conclusively whether these concerns about the loss of the working class vote really is about contrasting values, or whether its more simply about clarity and authenticity. I'd probably rather find a safer way of finding out though.