Israel - Palestine Discussion | Post Respectfully | Discuss more, tweet less
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) and Jamie (@Vault Dweller) are joined by special guest Anders (@Lyng) to celebrate the news that ETH is staying put! They also talk about the Euros so far, with special attention on England, Scotland and Denmark. They then finish with some transfer talk and the potential comings and outgoings at Old Trafford.
As far as I know its a minority view and there are no realistic Israeli Prime Minister contenders who could follow Netanyahu who share Ben Gvir's view. Its also worth noting that Ben Gvir is talking about permanently taking Gaza and sending the current inhabitants to other countries. Netanyahu's policy appears to be that Gazans should live in Gaza after the war with an "Israeli security envelope" around Gaza (probably closer to the pre-10.7 status quo, minus Hamas). I would be interested in knowing Amir's view as well.
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As far as I know the issue is that this is a view that is shared by a minority within Likkud and the party also needs these other movements to get a large enough majority.
The concessions Likhud would have to make wouldn't be as sweeping as annexing the entire Gaza strip (imo). Also, whatever the next Israeli government is, would need to start mending fences Internationally, especially in the US followed by Europe. Any attempt to annex land in Gaza would be met with fierce protest among Israeli's biggest international allies. Either way, Bibi is likely done politically after this so I don't think Likhud will be as big a force than when he was driving their agenda.
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How were they not on it before?
Amazing, simply amazing.
That absolutely was and still is an option on the table, even if less likely at the moment. Netanyahu and his cabinet saw the opportunity to turn a security disaster into a major land gain. Blinken doing rounds in the Middle-East to see which Arab country would be willing to take Gazans right after 10/7 whilst Israel "cleans" Gaza from Hamas (which will never happen) was part of it. Forget about civilian deaths, the systematic destruction of housing, education, medical, religious and administrative buildings in the last 8 months is part of it. The man-made famine that will have devastating consequences on Gaza children's development in the next decades is part of it.
Netanyahu's policy has always been clear. Chapter 1 of the Likud Charter tells you everything you need to know " The right of the Jewish people to the land of Israel is eternal and indisputable and is linked with the right to security and peace; therefore, Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) will not be handed to any foreign administration; between the Sea and the Jordan (River) there will only be Israeli sovereignty "
Props to him, he never, ever deviated from that line. Hell, he went to the UN with a map where there's no Palestine without anyone batting an eyelid. If he can get rid of the Palestinians one way or another, he will. And remember he's not a dictator, he's been democratically elected every single time he came to power.
Israel is going to effectively annex a part of Gaza in the name of "security". That ca. 3km wide envelope around Gaza (which is at its widest about 12 km) will turn into Israeli land when enough time has passed and the world's attention is fixed elsewhere, just like it always was for the last three decades. Time has always worked in Israel's favor. It will take as many decades as necessary, but the West Bank and Gaza will be annexed at some point, if the international community doesn't put an end to it. We're talking about a country that never declared its own borders.
You're also letting the West Bank out of the equation and that's a major mistake in my opinion. All eyes are focused on Gaza, but the real war has been fought there for decades. The expansion of the settlements in the West Bank has never stopped since 1948, no matter which Israeli government was in place. Every year that goes by makes a viable Palestinian state less likely, as the WB keeps getting turned into a swess cheese. Since 10/7 the mass expulsions, murders and land theft have exponentially grown.
If you think that a pre-10/7 status quo or anything alike is any tenable or realistic option, then you're only setting the conditions for the next 10/7. In my opinion, Israel is right now at a cross-road and the path it'll take will determine its survival as a state.
That's what I think and I'm waiting for Amir's opinion as well.
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That's assume that it's perceived as concessions and not a goal or an opportunity. The only actual difference between the far right and supposed moderates right wingers is that the former are reckless but the desires are the same.
I wouldn't say reckless, they aren't. They know exactly how much they can get away with and they've been proved right every single time.
They're just more "in your face", which is what makes the West a bit uncomfortable.
Hamas' attack on Oct 7 shattered the status quo, which Hamas and all of the Palestinians in Gaza (and arguably the WB as well) were trapped in seemingly permanently. I don't believe the world will allow a return to it.
Yeah, I'd say you're pretty accurate. Israel has been moving towards the right in the last couple of decades, and that also means some shift from the more moderate right to the extreme right.
I'm afraid the war is only going to strengthen Ben Gvir and co. And while it's possible the next government will be different and won't inlclude them, it will probably only be temporary. They will return - or their successors, worse then them.
Having said that, I don't see Ben Gvir and his likes having the power to make such decisions over Gaza, for instance, any time soon. The only reason they have so much power over Netanyahu is his legal trouble and desperation to avoid jail. So his departure can cause a major change that will weaken the extreme right and as it will be easier to create different, more moderate, coalitions and governments involving rational parties who are not willing to have anything to do with the Likud as long as Netanyahu is there.
I also disagree with the claim that Netanyahu and his cabinet saw the war as an opportunity to gain lands in Gaza. If what you suspect does happen, I believe it will be due to security reasons. Whether over time it will become more than that - meaning, the return of Israeli settlements there - will depend on the political situation and the power of the far right and settlers.
The Likud charter? I doubt Netanyahu remembers what he says or cares abou it.
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That's what reckless also describe, brash, careless or any of the terms you prefer.
I remember when I went to Israel in 2010 the big bogeyman of the Israeli right was Avigdor Lieberman, who planned to draw Israel’s borders to exclude the Arab towns of the Triangle and came out with crazy suggestions like bombing the Aswan dam. Today no opposition coalition can hope to replace the right without including his party.
A few years later Naftali Bennett emerged as the new bogeyman, bluntly stating over and over what Netanyahu generally downplayed publicly - there will be no Palestinian state and that’s that. He committed political career suicide by forming the only non-Netanyahu led government since 2009 in coalition with a bizarre collection of parties and in doing so completely alienating his religious nationalist base.
Today it’s Ben Gvir and Smotrich, representing slightly alternative manifestations of Kahanism (Ben Gvir being more recognizably a product and disciple of Kahane). Ten years ago it probably would have been accurate to describe them as “fringe”. Five years ago Netanyahu legitimized them in an attempt to save his own neck (he had heavily criticized Kahane’s followers who committed the massacre in Hebron and assassinated Rabin in the 90s) and they became active players on the political scene, if still representing a small but growing minority. Obviously their presence being consolidated with their ascent to governance in 2022.
We can’t yet tell what the long-term political fallout of October 7th will be in Israel, but it’s fair to speculate today whether it has tipped the country over the edge into becoming essentially a Kahanist society, at least to some significant degree vis-a-vis the Palestinian question. This may be a passing madness destined to recede once this insane war is brought to an end, and I’m sure that will prove the case with many individuals. But it’s likely enough that the views expressed by the man himself - widely mocked and derided during his political campaigns in the 80s - will, going forward, represent a significant or even majority element of mainstream political discourse in Israel, across the spectrum. If that is the case, then it’s not too important if the Religious Zionism/Otzma Yehudit coalition continues to garner only 10% of the vote in future elections, or collapses and disappears from the scene altogether - demographics, ideology, conflict, and above all the exercise of raw power have consolidated the far-rightist shift, and mean we’ll probably be hearing stuff like this for years to come from sources previously thought “moderate” or “pragmatic”. Indeed you don’t need to look hard over the last eight months to find such examples:
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Fantastic post
I've no idea regarding the percentages you mentioned one way or another. never looked into those statistics.
Anyhow, they're not niche voters. maybe they were 20 years ago.
I believe you are correct in your basic assumption.
Those in the far right will fo farther to the right if it's even possible,
Those in the center of the map will lean more and more to the right (wishing for Bibi to feck off but wanting the status quo minus "the war" to prevail),
And then you have Leftists who either turned even more left (but they are too few to even get noticed) and those who changed their colors due to Oct. 7th.
As things stand and with the current politicians at play, there can be no real alternative even if Bibi, Ben Gvir and Smotrich died tommorow (one can hope).
Parties from the center of the map will have to for a coalition with "light-right" parties such as they exist,
Ultra-Orthodox parties, not-too-Palestinian-supporting Arab parties such as they exist,
in order to form a coalition of 61 MPs.
It lasted about a year the last time such a government was in power.
It won't manage to form a coalition in 2024, not a chance.
So far as I can see, the main thing that's taking place right now for people who are not the right-extremists and not die-hard leftist,
or in other words- the majority of the voting population-
People are getting more and more fed up with Bibi, while also distancing themselves further from the Idea of the Palestinian population ever getting anything [and they were already against the idea in the first place].
Most people around here just wish that the IDF was able to destroy Hamas and Hezbollah, and for their lives to get back to Oct. 6th, and that's it.
If the Palestinians can teleport themselves to Antartica, even better (bieng gentle here. many would like them just dead].
If my family and some good friends were open to the idea and detetrmined to do it with all the difficulties it entails,
I would have left Israel already.
It was never a sane place to grow up in, and they way things are right now,
it's impossible.
I won't have kids in a place where the army that's meant to protect me a) isn't able to do that and b) commiting crimes to an extent I didn't want to believe was possible. I won't havemy kid do that.
/ rant.
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Also, Netanyahu, for what I understand, most likely will go to prison in Israel for crimes that committed in Israel.
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That is gold
George Clooney Complained to White House About Biden’s Criticism of I.C.C.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/07/us/politics/george-clooney-biden-white-house-icc.html
I don't know whether it's true, but rumors are doing the rounds. Noa is the girl from the infamous clip where she's seen on a motorbike being taken away from her partner.
Her mother is terminally ill with brain cancer, the home-hospice firm I work for is treating her.
I hope she is well.
This will probbly secure Bibi with more voters, sadly. people are idiots.
He has a habbit of addressing the media in the singular form, "I gave the order to do this and that, I made the sun shine in the morning..."
It seems legit. It is all over media outlets.
https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-805424
Hopefully Bibi wont take credit as you mentioned.
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Benny Gantz apparently canceled planned annoucement about leaving war cabinet.
Yes, this is very heart-warming.
I wonder, given your posting history on this thread,
How do you go about the dozens of people who died in Nusairat last night,
in order for the IDF to create the destruction+distraction to achieve this?
Not trying to give you shit, just wondering.
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"The number of martyrs in the Nuseirat camp is more than 100. The process of retrieving bodies from the streets is still ongoing".
No human life is worth more or less. Of course death of innocent people is tragic. But it is the kidnappers who should have thought about this. They of course dont. They dont even agree with the first sentence.
Adam Shatz with another lengthy and insightful review covering much of the debate that has played out in this thread and elsewhere since October:
Israel’s Descent
https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v46/n12/adam-shatz/israel-s-descent
Israel’s Descent
https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v46/n12/adam-shatz/israel-s-descent
Israel just rescued four hostages in a "precise" operation that massacred 200+. Congratulations!