Israel - Palestine Discussion | Post Respectfully | Discuss more, tweet less

[Amar__]

We are also talking about the most densely populated area in the world, if I'm not mistaken.

Yeah, not to mention also that damaging and destroying 11 000 buildings in few days in comparision with 1000 buildings for more than one year will no doubt take far more casualities too, considering the lack of time to find any protection(not that people in Sarajevo enjoyed btw).

 

[Drizzle]

Why is it so important for pro Israelis here to prove that this time it's not their bomb that bombed that hospital?

Sorry Amar one more point on this if I may. If you're questioning why this incident has any more impact than others, then we only have to look at the reactions from this very forum when the news came out:

What the hell have they done!? The horror of it all is too much for my heart.

I really think this is that moment.

Israel are finished now after that. The rest of the world won’t allow any more.

This one is just too much. Too much. Just sickening.

It can't be tolerated. Israel must suffer consequences. It's a dispicable attack.

Israel just did more damage to Israel than Hamas ever could.

I'm not calling out these posters by the way, just clarifying why this was particularly emotive. So if, by some chance it actually wasn't Israel who did this, then I think it's fair enough to point it out. This really was a different level of atrocity. Only problem was, it probably wasn't Israel and may not have been an atrocity.

And by the way, fair play to the Caf posters who at the time cautioned patience around the evidence.

 

[JPRouve]

This is more than the figure given by that European official.

As I said earlier, from what I have seen reported today the European intelligence report is maybe misframed. Because the way I saw reported a couple of hours ago the source was suggesting that they don't know and that figures aren't reliable citing the 10 to 50 killed as an example of reports they were given.

 

[Amar__]

Sorry Amar one more point on this if I may. If you're questioning why this incident has any more impact than others, then we only have to look at the reactions from this very forum when the news came out:







I'm not calling out these posters by the way, just clarifying why this was particularly emotive. So if, by some chance it actually wasn't Israel who did this, then I think it's fair enough to point it out. This really was a different level of atrocity. Only problem was, it probably wasn't Israel and may not have been an atrocity.

And by the way, fair play to the Caf posters who at the time cautioned patience around the evidence.

You weren't worried and emotive that those posters weren't aware that Israel did similar things before?

 

[owlo]

If 11 000 buildings were destroyed or damaged, believing that just 900 people died is insane, unfortunately.

In the war Sarajevo for example, around 1000 buildings were damaged, and we had around 10 000 casualities, and that was 30 years ago when weapon quality was lesser than it was now by big margin.

Your numbers are really wrong.

Structural and property damage and destruction *24
The structural and property damage in Sarajevo as a result of the siege includes specifically protected targets such as hospitals and medical complexes, medical facilities (including ambulances) and medical personnel, as well as cultural property. Furthermore, there have been attacks upon civilian property which are not justified by military necessity and are equally prohibited. The BiH government has estimated that shelling has destroyed over 10,000 apartments and damaged over 100,000 others. Of the other buildings in the city, 23 per cent have been reported as seriously damaged, 64 per cent as partially damaged and 10 per cent as slightly damaged. *25 In its report, the Council of Europe's Committee on Culture and Education commented on the structural damage in the city. The Committee stated:

«. . . t is plain that Sarajevo has suffered badly at the hands of its attackers. Apart from the obvious human cost in the continued suffering and difficulties of day to day living, there has been serious damage to the urban fabric. The infrastructure (drainage, electricity, telephone services, etc.) is badly damaged. Most buildings are damaged significantly and probably all buildings are damaged to a greater or lesser degree (broken glass etc.). Some buildings have been completely destroyed including ancient monuments (such as the Library) and including a number of modern steel framed buildings (such as the Unis Building) which in some cases have simply collapsed. 35,000 dwellings are also assessed to have been destroyed during the past year.» *26

 

[Drizzle]

You weren't worried and emotive that those posters weren't aware that Israel did similar things before?

Of course those posters were angry at previous Israeli bombings. But those posts, plus the furore around the world, prove that this was next level, a step too far... 'this one is too much'. And there were immediate consequences.

 

[Amar__]

Your numbers are really wrong.

Structural and property damage and destruction *24
The structural and property damage in Sarajevo as a result of the siege includes specifically protected targets such as hospitals and medical complexes, medical facilities (including ambulances) and medical personnel, as well as cultural property. Furthermore, there have been attacks upon civilian property which are not justified by military necessity and are equally prohibited. The BiH government has estimated that shelling has destroyed over 10,000 apartments and damaged over 100,000 others. Of the other buildings in the city, 23 per cent have been reported as seriously damaged, 64 per cent as partially damaged and 10 per cent as slightly damaged. *25 In its report, the Council of Europe's Committee on Culture and Education commented on the structural damage in the city. The Committee stated:

That is from wikipedia, 100 000 apartments doesn't mean 100 000 buildings. Sarajevo didn't even have that number of buildings back then.

https://sarajevotimes.com/over-one-...o-have-been-damaged-as-a-result-of-war/?amp=1

 

[owlo]

That is from wikipedia, 100 000 apartments doesn't mean 100 000 buildings. Sarajevo didn't even have that number of buildings back then.

No, this is from the "Final report of the United Nations Commission of Experts established pursuant tosecurity council resolution 780 (1992): Annex VI - part 1 - Study of the battle and siege of Sarajevo"

Have a read. https://web.archive.org/web/20010222115037/http://www.ess.uwe.ac.uk/comexpert/ANX/VI-01.htm#I.E

100,000 apartments is significantly more than 1,000 buildings anyway.

 

[Amar__]

No, this is from the "Final report of the United Nations Commission of Experts established pursuant tosecurity council resolution 780 (1992): Annex VI - part 1 - Study of the battle and siege of Sarajevo"

Have a read. https://web.archive.org/web/20010222115037/http://www.ess.uwe.ac.uk/comexpert/ANX/VI-01.htm#I.E

Read my edit.

You are obviously, and probably intentionally mixing apartments and buildings.

 

[owlo]

Read my edit.

You are obviously, and probably intentionally mixing apartments and buildings.

1097 remaining damaged buildings, in 2022... Read the article you linked. It's about damage at the time the article was written, and how to deal with it.

 

[The Corinthian]

I don't know why I'm so caught up with this specific thing. Israel have now made countless airstrikes, blown up countless families and children, destroyed thousands of homes, forced over a million to flee and denied the whole Gazan population basic supplies for going on a fortnight. Nontheless for some reason I feel obliged to reassert just why the evidence this was a malfunctioning rocket is so compelling to me.

1. Least compelling. Here's video footage from Netiv Haasara. One of the rocket seems to veer to the left. You can see the divergence best around 7 seconds. All other rockets proceed in a fairly straight line. A short time later an explosion takes place on the other side of a hillock. Unfortunately there is no clock on this footage:

Spoiler

2. Here's a fixed camera from Netivot. Again this shows what very much looks like the same barrage of rockets as (1) emanating from the Gaza Strip, one of which we witness exploding on the ground (at 18.59):

Spoiler

3. That explosion looks very much like another angle of the explosion that occurred in the Al Jazeera clip at the same time (again, at 18.59). This time we see the rocket malfunction, change direction and fall apart. The explosion at the hospital appears to take place some moments later right below its last position:

Spoiler

4. That explosion looks very much like the first angle that came to light:

Spoiler

Taken all together I feel these clips tell quite the compelling story. We see a bunch of missiles being fired around the time of the explosion. We potentially see a missile diverge from the pack. We certainly see a missile malfunction and fall apart in mid air. We then see an explosion on the ground below it moments later. I find it bizarre for the channel 4 reporter to maintain that there is no evidence to suggest a link between a missile that clearly malfunctioned, changed direction and fell apart and the explosion that occurred right below it seconds later. It's just inexplicable that someone could say that with a straight face.

Then, the next day instead of the expected destroyed hospital and rubble we are shown what is actually a fairly localised blast area with huge fire damage but little in the way of actual destruction.

Here's 3 Osint evaluations of that damage. These accounts are often cited in broadsheets so I guess they're at least somewhat legit. There are many more accounts saying the same thing:

Spoiler: Justin_Br0nk

https://rusi.org/people/bronk

Spoiler: Nathan Ruser

Thread:

https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/nathan-ruser

Spoiler: OAlexanderDk

No idea, dude has a substack and is cited by broadsheets

All in all we see a very coherent picture. From the night before we witness rockets being fired from Gaza around the time of the explosion. We witness a missile malfunctioning and disintegrating at precisely the moment and in precisely the vicinity that the hospital was struck. We witness the explosion and huge fireball. The next day we have pictures straight from the site. Cited experts all seem to claim that the scene they're witnessing would be unusual for regular Israeli munitions but somewhat in keeping with a malfunctioning rocket igniting its unused propellant. This fits in very neatly with the story our eyes told us happened the night before.

It's not conclusive, but (to me at least) it is very, very persuasive.

Thanks for this - very compelling, and at least Pogue can go to sleep happy knowing I've read it.

I'm not an arms expert so I won't comment on the people that you've cited and their expertise - they have their reasons and it's backed up by their experience. Although, Middle East Monitor did interview and ex US army man and weapons expert themselves, and he believes based on the evidence that it is an Israeli JDAM that is the cause of the strike:

US weapons expert debunks Israel’s denial of Gaza hospital strike
Speaking to MEMO, weapons expert and US Army veteran Dylan Griffith challenged Israel's claim that it was a Palestinian 'misfired rocket' and not the Israeli military that struck the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital on 17 October 2023, killing over 500 Palestinian civilians. Griffith examines the available visual evidence to refute Israel's version of events, which has now been endorsed by US President Joe Biden.

US weapons expert debunks Israel’s denial of Gaza hospital strike – Middle East Monitor

There's a video interview in the link, not sure how to embed it.

Al Jazeera and Channel 4 have done their own analysis, albeit at arms length (not sure Al Jazeera actually has anyone in Gaza) and they've come to the conclusion that it's Israeli, and more-likely-than-not Israeli respectively.

For me personally, the footage is the least convincing part of it - only because the quality isn't particularly great.

 

[The Corinthian]

To reiterate a point made by a few previously, whoever bombed or didn't bomb the hospital is almost a tangent. What we do know is that Israel do bomb civilian buildings, and do bomb innocent civilians, wantonly.

Yesterday, we know full well they bombed a mosque neighbouring a refugee camp killing 30, most of them women and children.

A new Israeli massacre at Nuseirat mosque reports say the refugee camp there and a bakery was also hit:



New Israeli massacre, dozens killed in airstrikes on Nuseirat Mosque in Gaza (msn.com)

So, even if it wasn't the Israelis that bombed the hospital two nights ago, they bombed this mosque, and a bakery yesterday anyway killing 30. I'd love to know what the pro-Israelis amongst us make of that.

 

[Raven]

I literally said it wasn't a defence, and also suggested it was worth a separate discussion, so don't play dumb.

Then why say it at all?

 

[the hea]

[

It would be interesting to see if some experts have an opinion on this but it could make sense. The Iron Dome is or can be automatic which would explain why IDF needed time to know if it was their missile or something else. The question is what is the size range of rockets debris intercepted by the Iron Dome?

Iron Dome is a terminal phase interceptor it is only able to intercept rockets ones the boost phase has ended and it can calculate a correct flight path of the projectile. No known ground based rocket defense would be able to intercept a rocket this close to launch.

 

[owlo]

Thanks for this - very compelling, and at least Pogue can go to sleep happy knowing I've read it.

I'm not an arms expert so I won't comment on the people that you've cited and their expertise - they have their reasons and it's backed up by their experience. Although, Middle East Monitor did interview and ex US army man and weapons expert themselves, and he believes based on the evidence that it is an Israeli JDAM that is the cause of the strike:

US weapons expert debunks Israel’s denial of Gaza hospital strike
Speaking to MEMO, weapons expert and US Army veteran Dylan Griffith challenged Israel's claim that it was a Palestinian 'misfired rocket' and not the Israeli military that struck the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital on 17 October 2023, killing over 500 Palestinian civilians. Griffith examines the available visual evidence to refute Israel's version of events, which has now been endorsed by US President Joe Biden.

US weapons expert debunks Israel’s denial of Gaza hospital strike – Middle East Monitor

There's a video interview in the link, not sure how to embed it.

Al Jazeera and Channel 4 have done their own analysis, albeit at arms length (not sure Al Jazeera actually has anyone in Gaza) and they've come to the conclusion that it's Israeli, and more-likely-than-not Israeli respectively.

For me personally, the footage is the least convincing part of it - only because the quality isn't particularly great.

Not sure why you'd promote the opinion of a fascist nobody ex lance corporal when we've had the opinion of actual experts who say otherwise.

I'd suggest deleting the post but you do you.

 

[VorZakone]

Thanks for this - very compelling, and at least Pogue can go to sleep happy knowing I've read it.

I'm not an arms expert so I won't comment on the people that you've cited and their expertise - they have their reasons and it's backed up by their experience. Although, Middle East Monitor did interview and ex US army man and weapons expert themselves, and he believes based on the evidence that it is an Israeli JDAM that is the cause of the strike:

US weapons expert debunks Israel’s denial of Gaza hospital strike
Speaking to MEMO, weapons expert and US Army veteran Dylan Griffith challenged Israel's claim that it was a Palestinian 'misfired rocket' and not the Israeli military that struck the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital on 17 October 2023, killing over 500 Palestinian civilians. Griffith examines the available visual evidence to refute Israel's version of events, which has now been endorsed by US President Joe Biden.

US weapons expert debunks Israel’s denial of Gaza hospital strike – Middle East Monitor

There's a video interview in the link, not sure how to embed it.

Al Jazeera and Channel 4 have done their own analysis, albeit at arms length (not sure Al Jazeera actually has anyone in Gaza) and they've come to the conclusion that it's Israeli, and more-likely-than-not Israeli respectively.

For me personally, the footage is the least convincing part of it - only because the quality isn't particularly great.

This US weapons expert may be right ofcourse, I can't judge it. But is it this guy?
https://twitter.com/LivingDadJoke

Seems like a rather biased fella.

 

[Dr. StrangeHate]

Still shocked Hamas hasn't presented Israeli bomb fragments from the hospital. They clearly still have much to learn from Russia, I overestimated them. Your supposed to keep some in storage to use for exactly this type of event. Perhaps the Israeli strikes really are doing a number on their organisation.

Do they need to keep them in storage. They can probably walk 10 mins and get couple of them without much effort, considering the 1000s of bombs dropped in the last week.

 

[nimic]

Thanks for this - very compelling, and at least Pogue can go to sleep happy knowing I've read it.

I'm not an arms expert so I won't comment on the people that you've cited and their expertise - they have their reasons and it's backed up by their experience. Although, Middle East Monitor did interview and ex US army man and weapons expert themselves, and he believes based on the evidence that it is an Israeli JDAM that is the cause of the strike:

US weapons expert debunks Israel’s denial of Gaza hospital strike
Speaking to MEMO, weapons expert and US Army veteran Dylan Griffith challenged Israel's claim that it was a Palestinian 'misfired rocket' and not the Israeli military that struck the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital on 17 October 2023, killing over 500 Palestinian civilians. Griffith examines the available visual evidence to refute Israel's version of events, which has now been endorsed by US President Joe Biden.

US weapons expert debunks Israel’s denial of Gaza hospital strike – Middle East Monitor

There's a video interview in the link, not sure how to embed it.

Al Jazeera and Channel 4 have done their own analysis, albeit at arms length (not sure Al Jazeera actually has anyone in Gaza) and they've come to the conclusion that it's Israeli, and more-likely-than-not Israeli respectively.

For me personally, the footage is the least convincing part of it - only because the quality isn't particularly great.

I tried and failed to find that guy online in another instance than that one. Maybe that's normal, but he's being referred to as a "weapons expert", so I'd like to know what that means.

 

[The Corinthian]

Not sure why you'd promote the opinion of a fascist nobody ex lance corporal when we've had the opinion of actual experts who say otherwise.

I'd suggest deleting the post but you do you.

How's he fascist?

 

[owlo]

This US weapons expert may be right ofcourse, I can't judge it. But is it this guy?
https://twitter.com/LivingDadJoke

Seems like a rather biased fella.

Aye, that's him.

 

[The Corinthian]

I tried and failed to find that guy online in another instance than that one. Maybe that's normal, but he's being referred to as a "weapons expert", so I'd like to know what that means.

I've tried googling him given he's now a 'lance corporal fascist nobody' and I can't find a thing. I think in this instance it means someone who's served and knows more than the layman.

 

[The Corinthian]

This US weapons expert may be right ofcourse, I can't judge it. But is it this guy?
https://twitter.com/LivingDadJoke

Seems like a rather biased fella.

I mean, he's literally served in Afghanistan and is a war vet. If he had these views prior to serving than fine, but I don't think it's strange for a war vet to hold his opinion. Many become disillusioned with the US and their foreign affairs.

 

[owlo]

How's he fascist?

Take a look at his post history and people he follows etc.

I've tried googling him given he's now a 'lance corporal fascist nobody' and I can't find a thing. I think in this instance it means someone who's served and knows more than the layman.

I'd have bombs dropping on me; doesn't mean you know anything about this stuff. It's why we rely on intelligence analysts, who actually have studied it and know about it.

 

[Amar__]

1097 remaining damaged buildings, in 2022... Read the article you linked. It's about damage at the time the article was written, and how to deal with it.

I have read. Have you ever been in Sarajevo? Most of damaged buildings are still damaged to some extent, not much has been fixed. Only those that are totaled.

 

[Red in STL]

Thank you.



If it’s all guesswork, I wouldn’t rely on it. And before you accuse me of hypocrisy - I’ll apply the same principle on the Gaza figure that they’ve reported 471 with little validity as well.

What are you basing this on? Has the European Intelligence Official said this? Can satellite imagery look at multi-storey buildings and differentiate between a patient in a bed and a dead body?

Ever heard of thermal imagery, you'd be surprised at what you can learn for this kind of technology, I have no idea if they have it but you can bet the American's do, (not that they'd tell us)

 

[The Corinthian]

Take a look at his post history and people he follows etc.

Why don't you stop posting vague nonsense and show me what you mean exactly. I've gone down his Twitter timeline and it's pretty normal critique of US foreign affairs and Zionism.

Id have bombs dropping on me; doesn't mean you know anything about this stuff. It's why we rely on intelligence analysts, who actually have studied it and know about it.

Oh, I'm certain he knows more than you and I.

 

[nimic]

I've tried googling him given he's now a 'lance corporal fascist nobody' and I can't find a thing. I think in this instance it means someone who's served and knows more than the layman.

I found his Twitter account just now, after seeing someone mention that he had one on Reddit.

https://twitter.com/LivingDadJoke

I'm glancing at his post history, and I don't know where to place him. He's very anti-CIA, re-tweets Candace Owens and retweeted someone blaming the attack on the Swedish football supporters on "leftist voters and liberal politicians".

Actually, the further I go in it just seems like maybe he's an actual Christian fascist something.

 

[do.ob]

This US weapons expert may be right ofcourse, I can't judge it. But is it this guy?
https://twitter.com/LivingDadJoke

Seems like a rather biased fella.

This is what wikipedia writes about the outlet that published the video:

The Middle East Monitor (MEMO) is a not-for-profit press monitoring organisation[1] and lobbying group[2][3] that emerged in mid 2009.[4] MEMO is largely focused on the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, but writes about other issues in the Middle East as well. MEMO is pro-Palestinian in orientation[5][6][7] and supports Islamist causes.[8][9] MEMO is regarded as an outlet for the Muslim Brotherhood[10][11] and its website strongly promotes pro-Hamas related content.[12][13]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_Monitor

 

[moses]

I mean, that question isn't hard to answer. The situation is much more tense and much more in the spotlight than in previous years and the initially touted figure of 500 dead was a big shock. So naturally, this event got more attention.

Yeah, I wasn't asking, just deciphering.

 

[The Corinthian]

I found his Twitter account just now, after seeing someone mention that he had one on Reddit.

https://twitter.com/LivingDadJoke

I'm glancing at his post history, and I don't know where to place him. He's very anti-CIA, re-tweets Candace Owens and retweeted someone blaming the attack on the Swedish football supporters on "leftist voters and liberal politicians".

Actually, the further I go in it just seems like maybe he's an actual Christian fascist something.

I haven't seen anything on his twitter where he talks about Christianity, so I can't really say he's a Christian?

Maybe Elon has fecked the timeline for me but all I'm getting is updates on the conflict, and his view of the Al Ahli hospital strike plus some critiquing of US foreign policy.

 

[JPRouve]

@owlo - what a fascist.

Look at the accounts he follows, he is on the alt-right side of things.

Edit: He follows christian nationalist of America and also accounts about white privilege with a dubious posting style.

 

[nimic]

I haven't seen anything on his twitter where he talks about Christianity, so I can't really say he's a Christian?

Maybe Elon has fecked the timeline for me but all I'm getting is updates on the conflict, and his view of the Al Ahli hospital strike plus some critiquing of US foreign policy.

You have to go back before the attack. All of his posts since then are about it, and there are a lot of them so you have scroll quite a bit to get to the other stuff. It's not ancient history though, those I quoted were still from October/September. This guy is definitely anti-trans, antisemitic, anti-immigration, anti-feminist, etc.

I mean, he might still be a weapons expert, but I haven't seen anything to make me want to believe him in particular over all the other combat veterans giving their opinion on it.

 

[do.ob]

Always great to see analysis from serious experts.

 

[Raoul]

Let's not spam up the page with off topic tweets just to prove whether or not this guy is someone worth listening to.

 

[The Corinthian]

I posted this earlier (an Israeli woman getting arrested in Berlin for a silent lone protest, the tweet I'd posted was from a different account but I can't find it now). The resident Germans on this thread assured me that it was fine because protests were illegal on that day or topic.

Well here's what German police are doing tonight at the 'violent' protest:



This is Paris tonight:

 

[nimic]

I mean, he's hardly pro-Palestinian anyway if he's tweeting this:

Yeah he clearly hates both Jews and Muslims. But that doesn't make him neutral, it just means all his takes on either of them are suspect.

 

[moses]

That 471 was in this thread was it not?

I hope that's not where Sky got it.

 

[The Corinthian]

Yeah he clearly hates both Jews and Muslims. But that doesn't make him neutral, it just means all his takes on either of them are suspect.

That's fair, but I don't think his view on the hospital strike isn't a valid pov.

 

[nimic]

That's fair, but I don't think his view on the hospital strike isn't a valid pov.

Maybe. I've just heard too many different "OPSEC" takes the last 24 hours (and I guess all the way back through the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine) to feel like I've got any handle on what actually happened.

 

[do.ob]

Well here's what German police are doing tonight at the 'violent' protest:

This is what went on there yesterday:


This was how it looked the day before.


Guy on redcafe: evil police are oppressing peaceful protesters.