Israel - Palestine Discussion | Post Respectfully | Discuss more, tweet less
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Does it really work? Its certainly been effective in terms of deterring neighbouring nation states because they have something to lose and Israel have shown again and again they will strike hard and fast (and threaten nukes very early on).
Does it work as much for non state actors, with populations who feel (rightly or wrongly) they've got nothing to lose?
"Hamas preparing for a long war"
Only the former is an actual threat to Israel. If Iran thinks they are weak, that's not good for anyone.
This is just a quote from the movie Casino.
It refers to a character who ends up beaten near death and buried alive in the desert because everyone hates him.
With Hamas it's very different. Their aim is to punish the Civilians, so that the next time Hamas went to Gaza for support, they'll be shrugged off (at least by majority)
There are lots of IDF forces on the ground, not having the civilian backing would really make Hamas difficult.
Just like the west are sanctioning Russian economy in the hope that the civilian would push for a change or defy Putin.
He's pissed he has to do some actual work for a change
Yeah but that's not acceptable and leads to legitimate criticism.
I don't accept the use of the phrasing 'proportionate' either. Israel is obviously entitled to defend itself but it's response needs to be limited to securing the objective of disabling the capabilities of Hamas. Proportional response seems to infer it's legitimate to target civilians, because someone else did it first.
Obviously civilians will die within any military operation but the loss of life and suffering should be minimised and rational, driven by being unavoidable rather than as tit for tat.
Yes sir it was
This is going to be so awful. It was awful seeing the killing in Israel. What I'm seeing from Gaza is already awful. The Israeli soldiers and commanders are going to satisfy their blood lust to revenge their countrymen and are going to/ already committing war crimes.
The only countries with even a modicum of control over Israel have already set their stall out and given them carte blanche to do as they wish. I imagine this will last a few weeks before there's genuine push to rein them in.
Again, what word is there other than awful?
I agree, I'm not advocating for it, but real politik wise it works.
Nobody fecks with the US because they know Uncle Sam is going to bring down thunder upon them. The same with Israel. There are several countries you don't mess around with even if you're a terrorist.
Although, to be fair to Israel, they're surrounded by enemies on all side, they can't afford not to show they mean business or show weakness. Proportionate response are impossible against asymmetrical warfare, you can't always have a tit for tat. In the mind of the Elite it's better them than us. It has come to this.
There is no way to do this without a ground invasion and military occupation. Gaza is too complicated, and Hamas is too ingrained there. Hamas has made sure that any attempt to end them will also come with heavy civilian casualties.
But it doesn't matter. Despite what some people (including clearly some on here, even if they know better to be explicit about it), Palestinians aren't born as savages. Nobody is. Savages are created by circumstance.
When this is done, even if Hamas is functionally extinct. What then? Are the surviving Gazans just going to grin and move on? When they look at their dead relatives, the literally medieval siege they've just endured and rubble, what will they do? Or will another group rise from the ashes?
Israel invaded Lebanon before to control the PLO and hezbollah, how did that work out? They invaded Gaza in the 2010s, how did that work? The Americans have spent 20 years bombing into oblivion, spending trillions, causing tens/ hundreds of thousands of lives lost. AQ/I IS are certainly weaker than they were....but they are not gone. They are still around the world, still striking.
Im always a bit confused about how this works. In Guerillia warfare you mingle and hide with the population and dont wear a Hamas military outfit with a badge on it, so how is even possible to clear out Hamas in such a densely populated hostile area? Presumably there is some intel but it can only go so far.
Its going to be way way more than that, sadly. I cant even imagine how people in Gaza must feel right now. I
There will be a moment of opportunity that has to be seized with the full influence of both the Western alliances (US) and the Arab league (Saudi) to get Israel and the PLO to the table to negotiate, backed up with immense amounts of money. The two state solution has to be finalized. The PLO hasn't been involved in this, and there's an opportunity there, but no one can afford to miss that. Either find a solution, peacefully, or end up with Israel having to choose permanent apartheid and war with the Arab world.
It isn't, hence the need for a full military occupation.
This is a very strange thing to write after what's just happened.
Threat to their existence I mean, sorry should have worded that better.
That’s quite an interesting angle. We’ve had loads of debate on Hamas motives and, “well, what did they expect would happen”.
Whether that's the case or not I think 'proportionate' reads too much like we're going to tolerate some extra punishment because it's in response to something horrendous.
We know Hamas use human shields so bombing is likely to have a number of casualties, but as I say it needs to be rational and targeted to Hamas infrastructure. Not a few extra at civilians in vengeance
Stay safe xThanks very much, I'm safe for now. will only be in real danger if Hezbollah joins in for real.
Until then, I live relatively far from the action and only worry about people I know who are there fighting.
I really hope that your acquaintances are OK. I fear for them.
I think I really really had a need to engage in conversation, get things off my chest,
say (even if virtually) things I can't say out loud to family and friends right now because everyone seems to have hardened themselves so much.
I haven't been able to work for the past 2-3 days. Been constantly watching the news sites and being here also.
I think it has run its course for now, and I'll do my best to stay away from the internet as best as I can.
Discussing the atrocities has and will take its toll on me,
and while things are going to get much much worse, especially for the Palestinians,
I'd like to distance myself from it.
Hope you guys stay safe, wherever you are.
Thanks very much for being some sort of a support group
I'll probably keep reading this thread from time to time as it's probably stronger than me,
but I'd like to think that not posting will be beneficial at least to some extent.
@owlo @Amir stay safe, physically and mentally, as much as possible
Look after yourself mate. I hope we can all just be arguing about football in the future and everyone can start to heal from this.Thanks very much, I'm safe for now. will only be in real danger if Hezbollah joins in for real.
Until then, I live relatively far from the action and only worry about people I know who are there fighting.
I really hope that your acquaintances are OK. I fear for them.
I think I really really had a need to engage in conversation, get things off my chest,
say (even if virtually) things I can't say out loud to family and friends right now because everyone seems to have hardened themselves so much.
I haven't been able to work for the past 2-3 days. Been constantly watching the news sites and being here also.
I think it has run its course for now, and I'll do my best to stay away from the internet as best as I can.
Discussing the atrocities has and will take its toll on me,
and while things are going to get much much worse, especially for the Palestinians,
I'd like to distance myself from it.
Hope you guys stay safe, wherever you are.
Thanks very much for being some sort of a support group
I'll probably keep reading this thread from time to time as it's probably stronger than me,
but I'd like to think that not posting will be beneficial at least to some extent.
@owlo @Amir stay safe, physically and mentally, as much as possible
Yeah, it worked a treat until now.
The only thing you achieve with kind of mindset is multiplying the amount of guys coming at you.
So unless you kill them all, you might start asking yourself why this keeps on happening.
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I appreciate that but we're talking specifically about Israel deterrence to neighbouring non state actors here.
Israel just lost more people than they did in the entire 67 war and about half as many as the 73 war.
It's not worked as a deterrent to those groups so far and the revenge that Israel is about to exact on Gaza and subsequent occupation / return to prison conditions is is almost certainly going to lead to similar groups popping up again.
I agree with that. I don't think they will return Gaza to prison conditions though, at least not as before, not after they've seen what Hamas became because of it. I think they will de facto annex Gaza and maintain a full military occupation. At that point whomever follows Bibi as prime minister will have some very tough choices to make.
How fecking irresponsible - he's the POTUS and he's spreading as fact unverified claims. That's shocking.
I mean, I know he's senile af with one foot in the grave and falling up/down stairs, but still. You can't be spreading something like that unless you 100% sure.
AQ might be weaker, debatable considering the situation in Afghanistan but ISIS is literally the example of your point. A new faction created out of segments of the failed wars in that region. Hamas is a symptom of a deeper problem.
This upcoming military operation by Israel is going to be very violent and I wouldn't trust my military as much after such a catastrophic failure. If Netanyahu follows up the worst feck up in Israeli military history with another bloodbath of palestinians and his people, he's not going to enjoy the rest of his existence.
Yup. As I said before the whole beheaded babies thing is really just a distraction but it seems incredibly stupid of him to reference this at all, unless he’s working off cast iron intelligence. So stupid.
They said (Hamas) that this has been 2 years in the making so you have to assume there's more of a plan there. Realistically though what is that plan? If it's just that they've mined/booby trapped/fortified Gaza then I doubt the Israeli's aren't expecting that, only thing would be if Hezbollah are waiting/have agreed to attack once the army is tied down in Gaza maybe. That or Hamas are just banking on political pressure stopping Israel which seems unlikely.
And even if then annex Gaza by force, and enforce a one state, as it has been said before, Israel can either be Jewish or democratic. But not both, since they are outnumbered if they give everyone voting rights, and if they dont they are not democratic.
I remembered 20 years ago, his predecessor did the same thing about WMD and Iraq. Grave political decisions involving superpowers predicated on lies. What a time to be alive / live through.
Everyone is expecting Hizbollah, and shiite militias in Syria to attack though, that's hardly going to be a surprise to anyone
Maybe that will finally force them into good faith negotiations? I know, optimistic.
WMD and beheaded babies not comparable though. There will be no decision about military action on the basis of whether or not babies were beheaded. There’s been more than enough accurately documented deaths (of all ages) as it is.
This is a side issue, which is really only interesting as the most controversial example of all the misinformation flying around over the last week. Especially now the POTUS has put his foot in it.
Maybe he means George H Bush and the comment about killed Kuwaiti babies, before Desert Storm? That was more than 20yrs ago though
Of course - they're not comparable in certain aspects but they are in others. Both were unverified, and have been used as a basis for military intervention rhetoric. This thread is a great example of the social aspects of misinformation - I'd encourage you to read through the pages of when the notion of beheaded babies was first announced. People are using it to justify a total annihilation of Gaza.
But in any case - I think you and I are largely agreed on the wider point.
No I meant what I meant, but that is another good example. I'm talking about misinformation generally.