Israel - Iran and regional players | Please post respectfully and stay on topic

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Beirut tonight.
 
I've seen a couple of reports that Russia has sent S-400 systems to Iran.

I doubt they would be effective against the F35s, but if they were planning on using F16s that may cause some problems.
 
Nogbadthebad said:
I've seen a couple of reports that Russia has sent S-400 systems to Iran.

I doubt they would be effective against the F35s, but if they were planning on using F16s that may cause some problems.
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Stand-off munitions, JASSM-ER and ALCM-86D can be launched well outside any functional ranges of the S-400's tracking and guidance radar.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Sorry if I wasn't clear, this topic isn't simple and honestly isn't entirely related to Israel.

For the case of Hezbollah, Houthi's, and other proxies in the region running around, most hot-conflict would likely cease with the situation in Gaza being resolved with a ceasefire or two state solution.

For the case of the Iraqi militia? Less so.

In a lot of cases, some of the smaller Iraqi Shia factions have become out of control of Iran, to the point where I think (my own assumption and analysis) that Iran regrets arming them and empowering them.

Put it this way, under the power sharing agreement, Shia's have a lot of power on the Council of Iraq. But that's not enough for a lot of these militia, they're not out for power, they're out for blood.

Obviously, we know about the mistreatment of Shia under the B'aathist party, but after Baathism was toppled, a lot of the Sunni power brokers, politicians etc were marginalized and managed to call upon other Sunni's and claim victimhood. The new council rules was based on population proportion, therefore 11-13 Shia council members to the 5 Sunni ones also caused a lot of resentment. This led to a lot of terror attacks from 2003-2005 which were targeted together coalition forces but also heavily towards Shia's in Iraq.

By 2006 the Shia's had began forming militia's aimed to defend against Sunni insurgencies but the end of the year this had blown to a full on shadow civil war which the US didn't want to get heavily involved in as whichever "side" they helped would lead to more civil strife and raise tensions further. This was where ISIL first formed, which was the precursor to ISIS. There was a lot of attempted genocide, on both sides, but eventually the Americans realized how dangerous things had gotten and then came the troop surge, which helped defeat the first iteration of ISIS. As predicted, this caused even more resentment amongst the Sunni factions, who now believed the Shia's to be in bed with the Americans to prosecute the Sunni's.

In the civil war, a particular faction of Shia called the Mahdi army gained fame which honestly, whilst mostly being good at media handling and optics, were just as hateful towards the Sunni's as the Sunni's were to them. As the fighting against ISIL died down, negotiations began between the US and the Mahdi Army mainly because the US was tired of this constant quagmire and the Mahdi army knew that it couldn't fight 100,000 US troops in open battle. Hence the Mahdi Army was stood down. However, many of the soldiers of that army were still vengeful for what the Sunni's did to them and many went off to join the more extreme groups, like Kata'ib Hezbollah and the Badr Brigades.

Whilst the official war ended, atrocities were still being committed by these Shia groups, who despite being in power, did not agree to the current structure. In 2014, some of the main points of concern was the fact that there was permanent power for the Kurdish Sunni's in the form of the presidency of Iraq. The rise of ISIS just a short amount of time later, did not help the dynamic. We constantly hear about atrocities of ISIS, but we seldom hear in the media the fecked up things the Shia militia did. Many Sunni settlements in North Iraq were not exactly fond of ISIS, and sought help from the Iraqi government. The Iraqi government, being somewhat paralyzed at this point, decided instead to outsource the fighting somewhat to these Shia' militia. What happened was a disaster. ISIS was rampaging down and slaughtering people, but Shia militia assigned to defend Sunni towns and settlements, instead used this as an opportunity to slaughter countless villages of entire populations, justified in their mind for revenge for the previous decades.

These Shia militia began being armed by Iran and as the fighting began to grow more intense, borders and seperations between these shia militia became blurred and nobody knew what was happening anymore. For example, during my time there, one of my assignments was to understand what militia were operating under a specific grouping of settlements. It turns out these guys didn't have a name, they were just former soldiers of different Shia militia groups, who decided to form a 150-200 strong band designed to protect their settlements and to attack any sunni's who threatened them. Iran has not helped the situation by being blind to the motivations of some of these groups (such as Kata'ib Hezbollah), who rather than serve Iranian interests and are capable of being reigned in, have shown themselves to sometimes step well out of line and do some heinous things that Iran feels is unnecessary and against their interests. For example, Hezbollah have targeted Emirati's in Iraq just because...well...they're Sunni and they hate them.

A lot of the motivation for why a lot of these Shia militia decided to join in on the Syrian War was quite literally, "Let's go fecking kill some Sunni's." All these Militia fall under what is known as the PMF, which is like a unofficial grouping of militia men that are somewhat approved by the Iraq state (Read, they cannot control them.). The PMF have over 60 different militia groups, and possibly many more unnamed or unidentifiable ones. Some are there to protect their communities, others are extremist Shia groups who want to murder Sunni's. There are even Sunni groups in the PMF which adds to the complexity.

This is why despite no matter how much public fanfare about wanting to kick the Americans out of Iraq, the Iraqi parliament have refused to ratify anything that actually binds the Americans to leave. Ultimately, they know that the moment the Americans leave, shit will fall apart. Right now there are negotiations for a middle ground - that American's mostly withdraw leaving behind a small token force, but provide Security agreements for Iraq in case of civil war/domestic unrest/external threats. Think pre ISIS agreement but on steroids.


How does this tie in with Saudi Arabia? The Saudi's know that a lot of these militia groups hate them and the reason why nothing too far fetched has happened yet is because of vast militarization from the West in both Saudi and Iraq. A lot of these Shia groups are just itching, waiting, for an excuse to take the fight to what they feel to be the heart of Sunni Islam. Kata'ib Hezbollah this time may use the Iranian conflict with Israel and Gaza as the pretext to blow up Saudi/UAE/Kuwaiti oil rigs, but the underlying reason is not that but the itching to "get even" with the Sunni's that has lasted for decades now.

This is why Saudi's are desperate not only for a) Further military integration with the West b) Security guarantees from the USA. They're terrified of the Shia threat from Iraq and knows that the Iraq government hangs by a thread and if that collapses with a US withdrawal, all shit may break loose. It's got very little to do with Israel and Gaza here to be honest.

There were a few posters here who suggested that the average person doesn't care about sectarianism anymore are wrong. People in the major cities do not care as much anymore. People in the settlements, villages, small towns, rural communities do care, and that's where the power base lies for these militia groups.
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You're such a bot :lol: My favourite bot though, for what its worth...
 
Kaos said:
I recall him trying to get football banned in Iraq on account of it being supposedly undignified for 22 men to be chasing a ball
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I mean watching united, do you blame him?

As for the rest of @AfonsoAlves post about Iraq, while he put some good general points, but it's unfortunately also includes inaccuracies that i do not think it's intentional but largely being pulled directly from Gulf state media.
 
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How is Isreal military campaign in southern Lebanon going?

Their goal is that Hesbollah doesnt reside there anymore. I wonder how they intend to do it with a short and limited campaign which they of course claim this all is. Reminds me of special military operation down in Ukraine.
 
Amir said:
Oh, he ABSOLUTELY fanned the flames.

Was he directly involved in the assassination? No, and I don't believe he thought his actions would lead to that. Israel did not have any history with political murders.

I don't think Netanyahu of 1995 would have repeated his actions had he known how it would end. Unfortunately, the Netanyahu of 2024 would, and would not care about the consequence.
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He’s certainly changed, for the worse, over the past 30 years.

I don’t know how much to trust my own memory, but I think I can recall Bibi speaking at a rally next to a mock-up of Rabin with his head in a hangman’s noose. And this was just a few weeks before his assassination. Does that even sound accurate to you? Apologies if I’ve just created my own memory, or somehow mixed two separate memories together.
 
Real Name said:
How is Isreal military campaign in southern Lebanon going?

Their goal is that Hesbollah doesnt reside there anymore. I wonder how they intend to do it with a short and limited campaign which they of course claim this all is. Reminds me of special military operation down in Ukraine.
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It won't be a 'short and limited' campaign. They know very well that they can't defeat the movement by simply assassinating its leaders and laying carnage on the people of Lebanon. And they also know that ground operations in Lebanon are often a costly affair for them - they've already reportedly lost a dozen or so soldiers in the opening days of the ground campaign.

My suspicion is they're slowly angling towards an occupation of Southern Lebanon yet again, just as they had done over 40 years ago, using the pretence of protecting their northern border from militants.
 
Giggsyking said:
I mean watching united, do you blame him?

As for the rest of @AfonsoAlves post about Iraq, while he put some good general points, but it's unfortunately also includes inaccuracies that i do not think it's intentional but largely being pulled directly from Gulf state media.
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:lol: Yeah I wouldn't mind a fatwa banning the game right now considering how depressingly well our rivals are doing and how rancid United have been.
 
NicolaSacco said:
I don’t know how much to trust my own memory, but I think I can recall Bibi speaking at a rally next to a mock-up of Rabin with his head in a hangman’s noose. And this was just a few weeks before his assassination. Does that even sound accurate to you? Apologies if I’ve just created my own memory, or somehow mixed two separate memories together.
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Those were different occasions. The noose appeared in a demonstration Netanyahu appeared at over a year and a half before the murder.

The rally you mentioned did occur about a month before the murder and there were chants calling Rabin a traitor and a murderer, and photos of "him" in a Nazi uniform.
 
Sana'a, the capital of Yemen, is under attack.

Also, a drone from Iraq killed two Israeli soldiers and injured 24 others in occupied Golan.
 


Medics have received messages they would get bombed if they do their jobs.
 
Two Israeli soldiers killed and 24 others injured from the Golani brigade by a drone attack.
 
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Amir said:
Those were different occasions. The noose appeared in a demonstration Netanyahu appeared at over a year and a half before the murder.

The rally you mentioned did occur about a month before the murder and there were chants calling Rabin a traitor and a murderer, and photos of "him" in a Nazi uniform.
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Ah cheers mate, memories can be funny things
 


How absurd is it that 3 military powers are attacking the poorest country in the region?
 

Israel warns rescue workers against going to strike-hit areas - Lebanon Civil Defence​


Rami Ruhayem
BBC Arabic

Israel has threatened to strike Lebanese search and rescue teams if they go to the southern suburbs of Beirut to help those trapped under the rubble, according to Lebanon’s Civil Defence.

Following Israel’s massive strike on a residential neighbourhood in Dahieh overnight, the Civil Defence – administered by the Ministry of Interior - received a call saying any teams heading to the area within 72 hours of the attack will be struck, they told the BBC.

Lebanon’s national news agency said the Prime Minister Najib Mikati has made several calls to foreign officials asking them to pressure Israel to allow search and rescue teams to do their work.

Israel has hit rescue teams and health workers across south Lebanon and in Beirut, killing and wounding dozens. Yesterday the Lebanese minister of health said Israel had killed 97 health and search and rescue workers so far and injured 188.

The majority of those killed are from the Islamic Health Organisation - linked to Hezbollah - which has been offering health services to the displaced and conducting search-and-rescue operations.

Teams from the Lebanese Red Cross, the Lebanese Civil Defence, the Islamic Risala Scout Association, and the Amel Association international, have also been struck by Israel, according to the Lebanese minister.

The BBC has asked the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) for comment.


Excellent.
 
NicolaSacco said:
That’s quite vague.
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I'm not going to write a plan for toppling the government on redcafe. But millions and millions on the street everyday demanding the end of the genocide would surely do the trick.
 
Amir said:
I'd love to see it, but obviously it's not going to happen. nor will there be an early election, which Netanyahu is avoiding like wildfire (until he knows he can win, anyway).
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Then I guess at some point (and honestly I think we're already there) ordinary israeli citizens need to start sharing the blame for the genocide. They can't keep hiding behind the "only those in power are evil".
 
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