Israel - Iran and regional players | Please post respectfully and stay on topic

Idxomer said:
Beirut

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Apparently 4,000 IDF soldiers dead in this campaign, which, if true, is an enormous figure for the IDF. Anyway, the entire thing is a disgrace. Peacedeal soon, I hope.
 
Israel negotiating a 'cease fire' in good faith whilst bombing the feck out of Beirut. Absolute cnuts.
 
neverdie said:
Apparently 4,000 IDF soldiers dead in this campaign, which, if true, is an enormous figure for the IDF. Anyway, the entire thing is a disgrace. Peacedeal soon, I hope.
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IDF soldiers? A little over 800 have died, including hundreds on October 7.

Many others have suffered serious injuries, including losing limbs.
 
Amir said:
IDF soldiers? A little over 800 have died, including hundreds on October 7.

Many others have suffered serious injuries, including losing limbs.
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Fog of war then. You hear these numbers thrown around.

I think it could be the second line which I'm citing. Not the killed in action but wounded and killed taken together. Wasn't aware so many died on October 7th (I had it down as civilian for the most part). Represents biggest loss of IDF life other than Yom Kippur?
 
neverdie said:
Fog of war then. You hear these numbers thrown around.

I think it could be the second line which I'm citing. Not the killed in action but wounded and killed taken together.
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Possibly. Over 5,000 IDF soldiers have been wounded, but some of them were wounded twice so maybe the total figure is around 4,000, though probably over it.
 
hopefully Gaza can follow next they have suffered enough, although I’m not holding my breath as IOF are hellbent on distruction and cruelty there. Would be good if it can be done before trump gets into office so he can’t take any credit for it.
 
I think the ceasefire is at risk of collapsing... Three Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon today.
 
I think the US/Israel understanding of a ceasefire is - we continue bombing your country, destroying infrastructure and killing scores of civilians, you don't fire back.
 


"If until now we have differentiated between Hezbollah and Lebanon"

They haven't.
 
US President-elect Donald Trump has issued an apparent warning to Hamas, threatening "all hell to pay" if hostages held in Gaza are not released by the time he returns to the White House on 20 January.
Dozens of people taken during the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack remain unaccounted for. On Monday, the Israeli military said an Israeli-American soldier who it believed to be a captive had in fact been killed last October.

Without mentioning Hamas by name, Trump posted online the same day: "Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied history of the United States of America."

Israel's President Benjamin Netanyahu thanked Trump for his "strong statement".

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62757dd55no
 
Redplane said:
US President-elect Donald Trump has issued an apparent warning to Hamas, threatening "all hell to pay" if hostages held in Gaza are not released by the time he returns to the White House on 20 January.
Dozens of people taken during the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack remain unaccounted for. On Monday, the Israeli military said an Israeli-American soldier who it believed to be a captive had in fact been killed last October.

Without mentioning Hamas by name, Trump posted online the same day: "Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied history of the United States of America."
Israel's President Benjamin Netanyahu thanked Trump for his "strong statement".

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62757dd55no
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I'll ask the same question I asked in the other thread - what does that threat actually entail? Bombing Gaza is a meaningless threat since Biden has been doing it for over a year, the place is pretty much entirely unhabitable now. The orange loon's bark is hardly going to scare Hamas into submission since the status quo will be the same as far as they're concerned. Unless he intends to bomb Iran/Lebanon/Syria/Iraq, which would immediately unravel the façade of him being an 'anti-war' president.
 
Kaos said:
I'll ask the same question I asked in the other thread - what does that threat actually entail? Bombing Gaza is a meaningless threat since Biden has been doing it for over a year, the place is pretty much entirely unhabitable now. The orange loon's bark is hardly going to scare Hamas into submission since the status quo will be the same as far as they're concerned. Unless he intends to bomb Iran/Lebanon/Syria/Iraq, which would immediately unravel the façade of him being an 'anti-war' president.
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The hopeful read is that a deal is approaching and Trump wants to take the credit for it and reinforce his image as this fierce leader everyone is scared of.
 
Kaos said:
I'll ask the same question I asked in the other thread - what does that threat actually entail? Bombing Gaza is a meaningless threat since Biden has been doing it for over a year, the place is pretty much entirely unhabitable now. The orange loon's bark is hardly going to scare Hamas into submission since the status quo will be the same as far as they're concerned. Unless he intends to bomb Iran/Lebanon/Syria/Iraq, which would immediately unravel the façade of him being an 'anti-war' president.
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Plot twist will be when the orange idiot finds out that releasing the hostages is on the lower end of the priority list for Israel, there have been a number of deals on the table but all have been rejected.
 
Greatest PM in Israeli history after Ben-Gurion?





"when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities"
 
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berbatrick said:
Greatest PM in Israeli history after Ben-Gurion?





"when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities"
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Don't worry, this is only temporary.

As we all know Israel is only doing it out of security concerns and will give back these territories, as the only democracy in the region should.
 


Standing alone without Syria and Russia in the face of a still-strong Western-backed bloc, the regime in Tehran will be revealed to its people as having imposed a futile sacrifice that not even its nuclear program can redeem. This poses a serious risk to the survival of the Islamic Republic—potentially the biggest fallout of last week’s events.

The repercussions of Assad’s collapse will also ripple across Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen as Iran’s proxies find themselves without an important lifeline. In Lebanon, in particular, the political dynamics set off by Israel’s decimation of Hezbollah are likely to accelerate with the loss of the all-important land bridge for weapons supplies from Iran. The sudden vulnerability of an already weakened Iran also means that Tehran’s remaining proxies may doubt the reliability of their patron.

Israel will move from being a state surrounded by adversaries and clawing at regional legitimacy to becoming the Middle East’s agenda-setter. Enjoying good relations with both the United States and Russia also makes Israel a key player in ending the cold war in the Middle East.

Just as the Cold War ended with the defeat of communism, decades of confrontation in the Middle East will end with the defeat of the resistance ideology.
 
IDF air force guy, he had a good thread about the syrian mountain's capture and its strategic value that i had posted above.



 
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-833330

IDF troops reach Damascus’ doorstep, uncover Syrian military weakness

The 603rd Battalion of the IDF's Combat Engineering Corps has reached Tel Hadar, the deepest point in Syria that Israeli forces have entered—10 kilometers from the Israeli border and just over 20 kilometers from Damascus.

“We left Al-Hiam last Wednesday for a weekend break. On Saturday, I received calls, and by Saturday night, the entire company had assembled in the Golan Heights. By Sunday, we were on Syrian soil,” recounted Captain Uri Almog, company commander in the 603rd Battalion.

Currently, the soldiers are stationed nearly 10 kilometers inside Syria. “From here, you can see Damascus on one side, the Hermon slopes on another, and northern Israeli settlements behind us. Right now, we’re fortifying positions beyond the Alpha Line, expanding Israel’s defensive perimeter, and protecting Golan Heights residents,” Almog added.
 
berbatrick said:
IDF air force guy, he had a good thread about the syrian mountain's capture and its strategic value that i had posted above.



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That’s really interesting. I’ve generally viewed Iran’s interest in Syria as being an offensive asset (a conduit for arms closer towards the Israeli border) but it makes sense that it’s also had defensive aspects.

Just looking at that map, what’s stopping Israel going over Jordan, do you think, and reaching Iran that way? Or is it more a case that if they did so they’d then be over the most populated area of Iraq where (likely) the air defence would be much better than over the north? Or, thinking about it, Jordan being an ‘ally’ or at least not an enemy, might make it politically difficult.
 
NicolaSacco said:
That’s really interesting. I’ve generally viewed Iran’s interest in Syria as being an offensive asset (a conduit for arms closer towards the Israeli border) but it makes sense that it’s also had defensive aspects.

Just looking at that map, what’s stopping Israel going over Jordan, do you think, and reaching Iran that way? Or is it more a case that if they did so they’d then be over the most populated area of Iraq where (likely) the air defence would be much better than over the north? Or, thinking about it, Jordan being an ‘ally’ or at least not an enemy, might make it politically difficult.
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i don't know much about military strategy, but i know, for example, that the ussr's biggest problem after ww2 was finding a way to cover their vast northern border from air attack. just too much ground. iran's pretty big and i'm guessing having the potential to attack it from multiple directions is great. same guy also mentioned that the mountain was a very good radar point which could see planes taking off from most of israel - that early warning is gone too.
 
berbatrick said:
i don't know much about military strategy, but i know, for example, that the ussr's biggest problem after ww2 was finding a way to cover their vast northern border from air attack. just too much ground. iran's pretty big and i'm guessing having the potential to attack it from multiple directions is great. same guy also mentioned that the mountain was a very good radar point which could see planes taking off from most of israel - that early warning is gone too.
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True. They’d want to spend as little time as possible in Iranian airspace too.
 
Iran in secret talks with Russia to bolster nuclear ambition
Iran has been conducting secret diplomatic missions to Russia to bolster its military and defence capabilities, despite forthcoming talks with the West designed to revive a nuclear treaty.
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Ali Larijani, a senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been shuttling back and forth on clandestine flights to meet senior Russian officials, The Times has learned, in backchannel efforts to gain Russian assistance on its nuclear programme and air defence capabilities.
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“Since they are deepening their strategic relationship, and Russia is dependent on Iran for missiles and drones, there is concern that Moscow is ready to cross previously drawn red lines on the Iranian nuclear programme,” a Western intelligence source told The Times.
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https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/article/iran-russia-nuclear-talks-deal-lfzbdh7z7
 
Inside the Houthis’ moneymaking machine
The picture that emerges is one of dramatic change. Cargo volumes in the strait have fallen by two-thirds, the ultimate nationality of vessels has shifted, container routes have been redrawn and the costs to the global economy amounted to some $200bn in 2024. The other finding is that the Houthis are surprisingly sophisticated, are exploring new weapons technology—and are in it for the long run.
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China has friendly ties with Iran, the Houthis’ main source of money and weapons, and Chinese vessels are not on the Houthis’ list of targets This creates a geopolitical arbitrage. Whereas American and British firms face insurance premiums of up to 2% of a vessel’s value. Chinese boats are reportedly paying as little as 0.35%, since their risk is lower.
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A panel of experts told the UN Security Council in November that a few “shipping agencies co-ordinate with a company affiliated with a top-ranking Houthi leader” to buy safe passage. “There’s clearly some deal-cutting,” says Tim Lenderking, America’s special envoy for Yemen.
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https://www.economist.com/interacti.../01/18/inside-the-houthis-moneymaking-machine
 
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