Skewed result both ways given that there was a tactical vote with remainers voting Labour and Leavers Conservative.
General Election 2024
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Skewed result both ways given that there was a tactical vote with remainers voting Labour and Leavers Conservative.
Why not, it was a GE. Sure, the right of the labour party hadn't had enough time to really do some damage, but even then he still inspired nearly a third of the country to vote for him despite everything.
There were 3 key moments in recent political history that have brought the country to its knees:
Nick Clegg backing Tories
David Miliband losing to Ed
Jeremy Corbyn continuing as leader after losing 2017 election
Without these 3 we would have never had hard austerity, we would have never had a majority Tory government, we would have never had a referendum on Europe, we would have never had a Boris Johnson premiership!
Nick Clegg backing Tories
David Miliband losing to Ed
Jeremy Corbyn continuing as leader after losing 2017 election
Without these 3 we would have never had hard austerity, we would have never had a majority Tory government, we would have never had a referendum on Europe, we would have never had a Boris Johnson premiership!
Message for Tory voters tomorrow:
Luckily the most patriotic are still in Germany.
The reason Corbyn got a good vote share first time around was because he was actually someone with principles and an idea. He was far from perfect though, and that was exploited by the heavily right-leaning media to essentially kill him off prior to 2019.
It's obviously not surprising that someone as malleable as Starmer has been anointed next PM by the press. He'll keep the slow descent train chugging along quite nicely.
It's obviously not surprising that someone as malleable as Starmer has been anointed next PM by the press. He'll keep the slow descent train chugging along quite nicely.
Would be seen as radical and unrealistic. Think once you start going too left or too right, the centre always wins.
Don't think there's ever been that big of a change in terms of spectrum in an election has there? At least in the past what, 40 odd years? Genuine question.
Because its a bit disingenuous and asks us to airbrush out of history his time in charge. Which includes the mess he left the Labour party in which is one of the reasons Starmer is having to run so cautiously on the finances. The biggest vote loser for Starmer is his time in shadow cabinet supporting Corbyn. That doesn't fit the agender here but even now there are people who won't vote Labour because of him.
Tories to Blair in 1997? I’m not talking about what we eventually got, I’m just comparing New Labour Manifesto in 97 vs the Tory governance that came before them.
If David Milliband had won, the tories would have gone into an election talking about his complicity in the kidnap and torture of a pregnant woman as part of the extraordinary rendition program with the CIA. Fatima Boudchar's name and face would have been on the front of every newspaper in the country, and dave would have been painted as an utter monster for it. And the tories would have won bigger than against Ed.
Corbyn in 2017 recorded the biggest swing in votes since the war, and through all of May's post election time was ahead in the polls. It would have been madness to replace him at the time. It took the media (BBC put his face on lord voldemort for crying out loud) and his own party (4 labour MPs have been enobled by the tories for their work in losing 2019) to get the end result of johnson.
Feels a bit funny to put Brexit as a result of one of the key moments that have brought the country to its knees, rather than itself a key moment that has brought the country to its knees. If this was the Labour thread, sure. But the Tories do have agency, and they can be blamed.
Minimum wage, Human Rights Act, devolution, peace in NI, reform of the House of Lords - these were all things Labour offered that the Tories were not (from memory).
Maybe if the right of the party hadn't joined in the gang bang on Corbyn then the party wouldn't have suffered so much in the eyes of the general population?
If anything it's disingenuous to only talk about his 2nd GE, given what I've said.
AV referendum
Brexit referendum
UK Government handling of COVID
All of the above due to the Tories. None of the above helped by Labour.
Wasn;t just the offer.
Although he didn't follow through with it and probably never had any intention, even in early 1997 blair was giving speeches talking about the possibility of rail renationalization. He went in on a leftward ticket and pushed right once in power.
As always, someone else's fault he lost. Yet here we are about to see what the Labour party can do when lead by a politically astute Leader rather than the failing geography teacher.
Please see my previous post, 2017 had nothing to do with Crobyn and everything to do with Brexit.
The Fickle voter can handle a monster, but they can't handle a man that can't eat a breakfast butty.
Absolutely but it was Nick Clegg that started the avalanche of destruction.
Blair's manifesto and promises were 100x more ambitious that what Starmer is proposing. Reflective a little of course of the current economic climate, but that's still quite a stark reminder of where we've gotten to in UK politics.
But the Tories also got a good vote share… is that also because they had principles and an idea.
Its always the “right wing media”, never the shite candidate.
Starmer is going in on a rightward ticket and will follow Blair’s tradition of pushing right once in power.
Yep.
He is cameron now, he'll be thatcher (who he said he admired for changing the country) by the end of next year.
My guess is he'll have boots on the ground in some US driven war within 12 months.
Corbyn still lost. Quite an important detail there.
Yes you are right. He was so worried about losing the 2001 election (or having a result similar to Attlee) that he tacked to the right.
The "right wing media" is always present, their effect lessens after a decade of tory misrule, but they still control the narrative.
Our method uses probabilities to estimate each party’s chances of winning individual seats, then combines these estimates to project the overall election outcome. For instance, if a party has a 50% chance of winning in four different seats, we would assign them an expected total of two seats.
The scale of the Labour victory forecast by our model is unprecedented. Labour is virtually certain (probability greater than 99%) to win more than they won in 1997 under Tony Blair, when Labour won 418 seats by polling 13 percentage points ahead of the Conservatives.
https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp-labour-99-certain-to-win-more-seats-than-in-1997/
The scale of the Labour victory forecast by our model is unprecedented. Labour is virtually certain (probability greater than 99%) to win more than they won in 1997 under Tony Blair, when Labour won 418 seats by polling 13 percentage points ahead of the Conservatives.
https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp-labour-99-certain-to-win-more-seats-than-in-1997/
Labour expects surge of ‘shy Reform’ voters in some northern and Midlands seats
Activists forecast margins of less than 2,000 votes separating them from Farage’s party – or even a shock defeat
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...rm-voters-in-some-northern-and-midlands-seats
Oh goody.
E: One Labour organiser in the East Midlands said it was possible Reform could win a Labour-held seat in northern England or the Midlands. They said it was almost impossible to track the party’s support via their canvassing data and compared the phenomenon to 2015, when Labour had no way of measuring the scale of the vote for Reform’s predecessor party, Ukip. “I expect some shocks,” the activist said.
Seats where activists are understood to have raised concerns about Reform include two in Oldham, as well as Leigh and Atherton, and Makerfield. Other places where Reform is expected to perform unexpectedly well are Bolsover and Sherwood Forest, and in Barnsley.
Activists forecast margins of less than 2,000 votes separating them from Farage’s party – or even a shock defeat
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...rm-voters-in-some-northern-and-midlands-seats
Oh goody.
E: One Labour organiser in the East Midlands said it was possible Reform could win a Labour-held seat in northern England or the Midlands. They said it was almost impossible to track the party’s support via their canvassing data and compared the phenomenon to 2015, when Labour had no way of measuring the scale of the vote for Reform’s predecessor party, Ukip. “I expect some shocks,” the activist said.
Seats where activists are understood to have raised concerns about Reform include two in Oldham, as well as Leigh and Atherton, and Makerfield. Other places where Reform is expected to perform unexpectedly well are Bolsover and Sherwood Forest, and in Barnsley.
It's the right wing media that determine whether a candidate is 'shite' in the eyes of a large proportion of the public.
So are people watching bbc, itv or channel 4 tomorrow?
BBC for me.
GBNews
Make are cuntry british agen
It feels absurd that gaining 38% of the votes could get you 74% of the seats. Or how 7% of the vote can get you 0.5% of the seats.
One person districts with no leveling scheme is just a bad, undemocratic system IMO.
Yep. This time it works in Labour's favour. But it doesn't work in the nation's favour in the long-run.
Any chance of Starmer becoming less of a centrist fence sitter once he's gotten those Tory votes and become PM or is that naive thinking?
It was a hung parliament in 2017. No one won.
Every government post war has become more conservative in office, not less.
People mention the electoral college in the US, but this is not much better in that aspect.
That's the entire conundrum if you are "left" and want to vote Labour. You have to assume and grant good faith without any actual evidence of it, except that the man can pragmatically lie (against the left to get here) when it suits him. I.e., with the largest majority in modern history and one of the largest ever you are entirely free to enact economic reforms (generational changes) without worrying too much for the press.
I don't know is my answer. I would expect him to try and do something much more aspirational, yet, there is also sense in taking a man at his word and that hasn't been great.
Zero. Look at his endorsements, donors, and trajectory. Don't vote Labour expecting much to change.
It seems Starmer is currently more unpopular than Corbyn
And the party overall is less well liked than both the Corbyn and Miliband era.
Tbh if we lived in the alternative timeline we probably wouldn’t have seen anything about party gate and the mess of Liz Trustt doesn’t happen. Imo the collapse of the Tory party is also down to how comfortable the ruling class is with current Labour Party.
Pretty much. No one really has been able to come up with an answer post 2008 financial crash. Everything stays the same but somehow also gets worse.
In case Mi5 is reading this I would like to distance myself from these comments.
Also Jim Ratcliff ran the London marathon this year. His love of British products and…..his free labouring skills will be useful in the long hours of fruit picking needed during the revolution!
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