Bert_
Full Member
I can't embed the tiktok video, but did anyone see Steve Bakers live meltdown?
Can't watch without a tiktok account. But does he mention his book he's been writing?
I can't embed the tiktok video, but did anyone see Steve Bakers live meltdown?
Left wing policies are not the same thing as left wing politics. The odd policy works, all of it together doesn't.
Apart from skirting over the dismal election campaign under Sunak and Truss’ terrible tenure, thought he brought up a number of salient points…particularly around why he got into politics in the first place, to the derision of the interchangeable people on the panel (who all seem stuck on short-term thinking).I can't embed the tiktok video, but did anyone see Steve Bakers live meltdown?
Do you want to put the number of people who voted conservative in those elections. So we can see if for every extra vote gained by JC he also motivates more voters to vote conservative?
9% of people who voted Reform are claiming they would have voted for pro-EU party the Lib Dem’s, and 7% green. Just shows how fecking thick they are, they clearly don’t have a clue what they’re doing.
Firstly, everyone with an opinion is an 'agenda poster'. Secondly, you'll need to acknowledge that in the previous two general elections, Brexit was the key motivator for Conservatives and in in 2019 Farage stood all of his party's candidates down in Tory seats in order not to split the vote on that singular issue in those constituencies.Just for balance and to avoid the idea you are an agenda poster,
Do you want to put the number of people who voted conservative in those elections. So we can see if for every extra vote gained by JC he also motivates more voters to vote conservative?
I despise Reform and Nigel fecking Farage as much as the next guy, they and most of his voters are just a bunch of thickos and bigots, but it's absolutely bonkers that a party has a votes per seat ratio 4000% higher than another.IMO the main goals entering this election were:
1) Get the Tories out of power (Done)
2) Remove as much Tories as possible (Done)
3) Don't let too many of those other guys into de HoC in the process (Done)
4) If possible leave Tories in third place so they aren't main opposition (it was probably a one in a million chance anyway)
So 3 out of 4 looks like a really succesful election. Now onto the trends:
TLDR: a good election by any standards, but there's no reason to believe that it will last. So we may as well enjoy it.
- The Tories got 14M votes last election. Now Tories+Reform got 11M votes total. The right wing got 3M votes less than in 2019, which is coincidentally the reduction in turnout.
- Most of the other Big/median parties got less votes than last time: Labour 0,6M (10,3 to 9,7), Lib Dems 0,2M (3,7 to 3,5), SNP 0,5M (1,2 to 0,7). The only exception were Greens who won 1M votes (0,8 to 1,8). So there's a strong possibility that A) a lot of Labour and Lib Dem votes went Green this time and B) both parties were able to reduce the impact a little by capitalizing on the SNP's collapse.
- The aforementioned changes in voting didn't translate into seats: Reform got 14% of the votes but 0,7% of the seats. Greens got 6,4% and 0,5% respectively. Meanwhile Labour got 34% of the votes but 63% of the votes (Tories 24% and 19%, LD 12% and 11%, SNP 2,5% and 1,5%). This is pretty terrible for representative democracy and a good argument for PR instead of FPTP (even if in this case -and in most elections- would result in a hung parlament with Reform getting better participation). Another way of seeing it is how many votes in average did a party got per seat won:
- Labour: 23.596
- Tories: 56.405
- Lib Dems: 48.625
- SNP: 78.778
- Greens: 460.500
- Reform: 822.800
Great analysis of election results here.You lost. Er, get over it?
Great analysis of election results here.
I'm surprised you're not on GB News with this level of discussion.
It's hilarious how rattled they are by any claim that counters it as a great Labour victory, add Corbyn and they're stomping at the keyboard red faced.
From people who told us it's all about power nonetheless, Labour have now got power yet they still get triggered
I actually think the rest of us are enjoying the victory more than that lot because they're so angry at others claiming it wasn't all down to Starmer's greatness.
It's hilarious how rattled they are by any claim that counters it as a great Labour victory, add Corbyn and they're stomping at the keyboard red faced.
From people who told us it's all about power nonetheless, Labour have now got power yet they still get triggered
I actually think the rest of us are enjoying the victory more than that lot because they're so angry at others claiming it wasn't all down to Starmer's greatness.
Unless this is a completely different guy with the same name it does seem to be true(According to the parliament uk site)Hermer gave Starmer leadership campaign £5,000 back in 2020Job has gone to a human rights barrister called Richard Hermer, mate of Keir, who also seems to be pro-Palestine (or at the least supportive of an end to the conflict), if a very lazy Google search is anything to go by. Means bugger all for his role I guess but interesting considering the stance that Labour have sometimes taken recently.
Seemed a strange choice but on the parliament uk site it shows Hermer gave Starmer leadership campaign £5,000 back in 2020.
It's hilarious how rattled they are by any claim that counters it as a great Labour victory, add Corbyn and they're stomping at the keyboard red faced.
From people who told us it's all about power nonetheless, Labour have now got power yet they still get triggered
I actually think the rest of us are enjoying the victory more than that lot because they're so angry at others claiming it wasn't all down to Starmer's greatness.
Literally all the statistics point to it being in spite of Starmer.It's hilarious how rattled they are by any claim that counters it as a great Labour victory, add Corbyn and they're stomping at the keyboard red faced.
From people who told us it's all about power nonetheless, Labour have now got power yet they still get triggered
I actually think the rest of us are enjoying the victory more than that lot because they're so angry at others claiming it wasn't all down to Starmer's greatness.
Don't think it's this at all. Some people in this thread are actively trying to discredit the victory in anyway they can, spin any bit of data in anyway they can.It's hilarious how rattled they are by any claim that counters it as a great Labour victory, add Corbyn and they're stomping at the keyboard red faced.
From people who told us it's all about power nonetheless, Labour have now got power yet they still get triggered
I actually think the rest of us are enjoying the victory more than that lot because they're so angry at others claiming it wasn't all down to Starmer's greatness.
What's the difference?
Don't think it's this at all. Some people in this thread are actively trying to discredit the victory in anyway they can, spin any bit of data in anyway they can.
Don't think it's this at all. Some people in this thread are actively trying to discredit the victory in anyway they can, spin any bit of data in anyway they can.
Literally all the statistics point to it being in spite of Starmer.
Those giddy about the huge majority and win are ignoring the clear subtext of the election which is the rise of the far right.
The concern we have is that this is a Labour Party which is promising absolutely nothing. They want to run the country properly again apparently and that means austerity. The problem with that is that they might well get the country in better shape financially but they are talking about it being a decade long project. If people in 5 years time are not feeling better off, then all the Tory bullshit that has gone before then will be forgotten and next election they will be wiped out by the promise of harsh immigration laws and huge tax cuts taking advantage of the recovering economy with Reform either growing in numbers or merged with the Tory party in one shape or another and we have seen in this election what effect a tiny percentage shift either way can have on she makeup of parliament so imagine if there is a shift back to the Tories and Reform grow in parallel - some sort of far right coalition is in my opinion actually the likely scenario in 5 years and not some worst case scenario.
The problem is that Labour are going to continue to court the centre right and right and this election has already proven that is a pointless task. If you look at the numbers, they gained nothing whatsoever, Reform picked up those voters. They didn’t win the election because they attracted the centre and centre right, there was no shift in their direction, they actually lost voters and purely benefitted from circumstances and the rise of Reform splitting the vote on the right.
In 5 years time, they cannot be campaigning on the how much better off the country is, they need to be able to campaign on how much better off the public is because if they are saying the books are balanced and it’s time for tax cuts and public spending then their opposition will say thank you very much for sorting that out now we can offer bigger tax cuts and better public spending.
So in short the reason myself and many others in this thread are so down on this election despite a huge Labour majority it’s because A. They are promising nothing and B. It feels absolutely inevitable that in 5 years time a Farage led right wing is going to romp to an even bigger majority and that is terrifying because by that time the right is going to have already gained a foothold in many other western countries and the diminishment of human rights will already been on its way to being normalised. It may sound like hyperbole but I think we are sitting on the precipice of a very dangerous period in human history - climate change driven immigration mixing with far right governments is a potentially cataclysmic.
Sooooo… what do you want from an incoming government, exactly? A stronger economy but must be done within five years. A solution to climate driven immigration that won’t make people affected by it vote for parties who promise to stop it. Without, presumably, actually stopping it. And to be electable. In a way that Corbyn evidently wasn’t.
Seems fairly straightforward. Who is this amazing party and when can you vote for them?
I think they need to read the room. People are leaning towards Farage because he’s offering them simple solutions to complex issues. Anyone with half a brain can see that his solutions are not practical and for the most part not ethical either. But what people want is hope, they want their own personal circumstances to improve and if Labour cannot in 5 years say that they have achieved that then they are toast and all their work saving the economy is for nothing.
So as I said if they spend the next 5 years getting the books in order, your average voter is not is going to credit them with that and vote for them again in 5 years if they personally have not seen any benefit of it. All they are doing is providing every other party with a foundation for their manifesto. They need to address real issues from day one that have a tangible impact on people’s lives. Childcare, rent control, affordable housing, investment in the NHS, public transport and other infrastructure. The country is falling apart at the seams, if it’s still falling apart at the seams in 5 years but the money is available to fix it they will be annihilated at the next election.
It’s all well and good being the sensible party, the adults back in the room, but it genuinely means feck all if it’s just a 5 year break from chaos and only results in more extreme chaos further down the line.
Why is it upsetting you so much? We are being frank with our opinions and fears. Feel free to be more optimistic but it’s a bit weird trying to shut down others who are sharing more pessimistic predictions because it’s, what? Killing your buzz a bit?Yeah, agreed. So why not wait and see what they do about all the stuff in bold, instead of repeatedly pointing out that they didn’t really deserve the massive landslide victory they just won? Because they can’t do any of the above as an opposition party.
That is not possible, farage can't come close to a majority.Literally all the statistics point to it being in spite of Starmer.
Those giddy about the huge majority and win are ignoring the clear subtext of the election which is the rise of the far right.
The concern we have is that this is a Labour Party which is promising absolutely nothing. They want to run the country properly again apparently and that means austerity. The problem with that is that they might well get the country in better shape financially but they are talking about it being a decade long project. If people in 5 years time are not feeling better off, then all the Tory bullshit that has gone before then will be forgotten and next election they will be wiped out by the promise of harsh immigration laws and huge tax cuts taking advantage of the recovering economy with Reform either growing in numbers or merged with the Tory party in one shape or another and we have seen in this election what effect a tiny percentage shift either way can have on she makeup of parliament so imagine if there is a shift back to the Tories and Reform grow in parallel - some sort of far right coalition is in my opinion actually the likely scenario in 5 years and not some worst case scenario.
The problem is that Labour are going to continue to court the centre right and right and this election has already proven that is a pointless task. If you look at the numbers, they gained nothing whatsoever, Reform picked up those voters. They didn’t win the election because they attracted the centre and centre right, there was no shift in their direction, they actually lost voters and purely benefitted from circumstances and the rise of Reform splitting the vote on the right.
In 5 years time, they cannot be campaigning on the how much better off the country is, they need to be able to campaign on how much better off the public is because if they are saying the books are balanced and it’s time for tax cuts and public spending then their opposition will say thank you very much for sorting that out now we can offer bigger tax cuts and better public spending.
So in short the reason myself and many others in this thread are so down on this election despite a huge Labour majority it’s because A. They are promising nothing and B. It feels absolutely inevitable that in 5 years time a Farage led right wing is going to romp to an even bigger majority and that is terrifying because by that time the right is going to have already gained a foothold in many other western countries and the diminishment of human rights will already been on its way to being normalised. It may sound like hyperbole but I think we are sitting on the precipice of a very dangerous period in human history - climate change driven immigration mixing with far right governments is a potentially cataclysmic.
Yet history shows the opposite, where right wing policies cost a lot more money with nothing gained.A policy here and there vs the entire focus of government being left wing. Left wing policies generally cost money to benefit the people. No bad thing but unless you're sitting on top of an oil field it can't all be that way, it has to be paid for somehow.
Starmer at least seems to get that. A few daft policies to appease various factions but no sign of anything too major so far. After the last few years stability is the most important thing.
I think his approach of dealing with refugees by funding the system more is by far the best approach.Sooooo… what do you want from an incoming government, exactly? A stronger economy but must be done within five years. A solution to climate driven immigration that won’t make people affected by it vote for parties who promise to stop it. Without, presumably, actually stopping it. And to be electable. In a way that Corbyn evidently wasn’t.
Seems fairly straightforward. Who is this amazing party and when can you vote for them?
Well there is nothing you can do with such an immature electorate, you might as well give up now.I think they need to read the room. People are leaning towards Farage because he’s offering them simple solutions to complex issues. Anyone with half a brain can see that his solutions are not practical and for the most part not ethical either. But what people want is hope, they want their own personal circumstances to improve and if Labour cannot in 5 years say that they have achieved that then they are toast and all their work saving the economy is for nothing.
So as I said if they spend the next 5 years getting the books in order, your average voter is not is going to credit them with that and vote for them again in 5 years if they personally have not seen any benefit of it. All they are doing is providing every other party with a foundation for their manifesto. They need to address real issues from day one that have a tangible impact on people’s lives. Childcare, rent control, affordable housing, investment in the NHS, public transport and other infrastructure. The country is falling apart at the seams, if it’s still falling apart at the seams in 5 years but the money is available to fix it they will be annihilated at the next election.
It’s all well and good being the sensible party, the adults back in the room, but it genuinely means feck all if it’s just a 5 year break from chaos and only results in more extreme chaos further down the line.
Or… you have to be politically astute. They should be looking at the actual vote numbers and be as concerned as we are and not rest on their laurels. They need to tangibly improve people’s quality of life because achievements that are intangible or abstract to people like “reducing national debt vs GDP” mean absolutely feck all to someone that was struggling to get by in 2024 and is struggling to get by in 2029.Well there is nothing you can do with such an immature electorate, you might as well give up now.
Yes that's the world of a child, you want things and you want things now. Short-termism, it's maybe the worst thing about this country, it's one of the biggest reasons why our country is in such a bad shape. Adults need to think long term and consequences.Or… you have to be politically astute. They should be looking at the actual vote numbers and be as concerned as we are and not rest on their laurels. They need to tangibly improve people’s quality of life because achievements that are intangible or abstract to people like “reducing national debt vs GDP” mean absolutely feck all to someone that was struggling to get by in 2024 and is struggling to get by in 2029.
Jesus Christ, cannot believe I mostly agree with you. I feel bad.Literally all the statistics point to it being in spite of Starmer.
Those giddy about the huge majority and win are ignoring the clear subtext of the election which is the rise of the far right.
The concern we have is that this is a Labour Party which is promising absolutely nothing. They want to run the country properly again apparently and that means austerity. The problem with that is that they might well get the country in better shape financially but they are talking about it being a decade long project. If people in 5 years time are not feeling better off, then all the Tory bullshit that has gone before then will be forgotten and next election they will be wiped out by the promise of harsh immigration laws and huge tax cuts taking advantage of the recovering economy with Reform either growing in numbers or merged with the Tory party in one shape or another and we have seen in this election what effect a tiny percentage shift either way can have on she makeup of parliament so imagine if there is a shift back to the Tories and Reform grow in parallel - some sort of far right coalition is in my opinion actually the likely scenario in 5 years and not some worst case scenario.
The problem is that Labour are going to continue to court the centre right and right and this election has already proven that is a pointless task. If you look at the numbers, they gained nothing whatsoever, Reform picked up those voters. They didn’t win the election because they attracted the centre and centre right, there was no shift in their direction, they actually lost voters and purely benefitted from circumstances and the rise of Reform splitting the vote on the right.
In 5 years time, they cannot be campaigning on the how much better off the country is, they need to be able to campaign on how much better off the public is because if they are saying the books are balanced and it’s time for tax cuts and public spending then their opposition will say thank you very much for sorting that out now we can offer bigger tax cuts and better public spending.
So in short the reason myself and many others in this thread are so down on this election despite a huge Labour majority it’s because A. They are promising nothing and B. It feels absolutely inevitable that in 5 years time a Farage led right wing is going to romp to an even bigger majority and that is terrifying because by that time the right is going to have already gained a foothold in many other western countries and the diminishment of human rights will already been on its way to being normalised. It may sound like hyperbole but I think we are sitting on the precipice of a very dangerous period in human history - climate change driven immigration mixing with far right governments is a potentially cataclysmic.
The ironic thing is that your perceived maturity is actually nothing but naivety. The general public if you haven’t noticed are for the most part, quite childish, quite shortsighted and quite frankly quite thick.Yes that's the world of a child, you want things and you want things now. Short-termism, it's maybe the worst thing about this country, it's one of the biggest reasons why our country is in such a bad shape. Adults need to think long term and consequences.
I wasn't calling you immature, just to be clear, I was saying the electorate is. So the country is doomed and the electorate is to blame.The ironic thing is that your perceived maturity is actually nothing but naivety. The general public if you haven’t noticed are for the most part, quite childish, quite shortsighted and quite frankly quite thick.
There’s no weighting in elections, your vote doesn’t count double if you’re a deep thinker. That is the electorate Labour have to attract if they want a second term and to fend off the far right.
Yet history shows the opposite, where right wing policies cost a lot more money with nothing gained.
Who said anything about right wing policies being the answer either? Both extremes are there to soak up the nutters on either end of the spectrum and render their votes useless. The sensible policies sit somewhere around the centre to centre right i.e capitalism.
Great analysis of election results here.
I'm surprised you're not on GB News with this level of discussion.
9% of people who voted Reform are claiming they would have voted for pro-EU party the Lib Dem’s, and 7% green. Just shows how fecking thick they are, they clearly don’t have a clue what they’re doing.
Why is it upsetting you so much? We are being frank with our opinions and fears. Feel free to be more optimistic but it’s a bit weird trying to shut down others who are sharing more pessimistic predictions because it’s, what? Killing your buzz a bit?
I’d rather have my genuine thoughts on the record so in a few years time I can see if my fears were justified or unfounded.