General Election 2017 | Cabinet reshuffle: Hunt re-appointed Health Secretary for record third time

How do you intend to vote in the 2017 General Election if eligible?

  • Conservatives

    Votes: 80 14.5%
  • Labour

    Votes: 322 58.4%
  • Lib Dems

    Votes: 57 10.3%
  • Green

    Votes: 20 3.6%
  • SNP

    Votes: 13 2.4%
  • UKIP

    Votes: 29 5.3%
  • Independent

    Votes: 3 0.5%
  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 2 0.4%
  • Sinn Fein

    Votes: 11 2.0%
  • Other (UUP, DUP, BNP, and anyone else I have forgotten)

    Votes: 14 2.5%

  • Total voters
    551
  • Poll closed .

Assuming the Tories go for a Minority government, no, definitely not.

For a coalition? No, but maybe they could manipulate the situation to get control. Even then, they wouldn't necessarily be able to launch anything.
The precise details of how a British Prime Minister would authorise a nuclear strike remain secret, although the principles of the Trident missile control system is believed to be based on the plan set up for Polaris in 1968, which has now been declassified. A closed-circuit television system was set up between 10 Downing Street and the SSBN Control Officer at the Northwood Headquarters of the Royal Navy. Both the Prime Minister and the SSBN Control Officer would be able to see each other on their monitors when the command was given. If the link failed – for instance during a nuclear attack or when the PM was away from Downing Street – the Prime Minister would send an authentication code which could be verified at Northwood. The PM would then broadcast a firing order to the SSBN submarines via the Very Low Frequency radio station at Rugby. The UK has not deployed control equipment requiring codes to be sent before weapons can be used, such as the U.S. Permissive Action Link, which if installed would preclude the possibility that military officers could launch British nuclear weapons without authorisation.

Until 1998, when it was withdrawn from service, the WE.177 bomb was armed with a standard tubular pin tumbler lock (as used on bicycle locks) and a standard allen key was used to set yield and burst height. Currently, British Trident missile commanders are able to launch their missiles without authorisation, whereas their American colleagues cannot. At the end of the Cold War the U.S. Fail Safe Commission recommended installing devices to prevent rogue commanders persuading their crews to launch unauthorised nuclear attacks. This was endorsed by the Nuclear Posture Review and Trident missile Coded Control Devices were fitted to all U.S. SSBNs by 1997. These devices prevented an attack until a launch code had been sent by the Chiefs of Staff on behalf of the President. The UK took a decision not to install Trident CCDs or their equivalent on the grounds that an aggressor might be able to wipe out the British chain of command before a launch order had been sent.[96][97][98]

In December 2008 BBC Radio 4 made a programme titled The Human Button, providing new information on the manner in which the United Kingdom could launch its nuclear weapons, particularly relating to safeguards against a rogue launch. Former Chief of the Defence Staff (most senior officer of all British armed forces) and Chief of the General Staff (most senior officer in the British Army), General Lord Guthrie of Craigiebank, explained that the highest level of safeguard was against a prime minister ordering a launch without due cause: Lord Guthrie stated that the constitutional structure of the United Kingdom provided some protection against such an occurrence, as while the Prime Minister is the chief executive and so practically commands the armed services, the formal commander-in-chief is the Monarch (to whom they swear allegiance to and indeed, is called the "Royal" Navy/Air Force), to whom the chief of the defence staff could appeal: "the chief of the defence staff, if he really did think the prime minister had gone mad, would make quite sure that that order was not obeyed... You have to remember that actually prime ministers give direction, they tell the chief of the defence staff what they want, but it's not prime ministers who actually tell a sailor to press a button in the middle of the Atlantic. The armed forces are loyal, and we live in a democracy, but actually their ultimate authority is the Queen."[99]
Weapons Engineer Officers Tactical Trigger used to launch a Trident Missile. Taken in 2012 aboard HMS Vigilant during a test launch of an unarmed Trident ballistic missile at sea.
The same interview pointed out that while the Prime Minister would have the constitutional authority to fire the Chief of the Defence Staff, he could not appoint a replacement as the position is appointed by the monarch. During the Cold War the Prime Minister was also required to name a senior member of the cabinet as his/her designated survivor, who would have the authority to order a nuclear response in the event of an attack incapacitating the Prime Minister, and this system was re-adopted after the September 11 attacks.

The programme also addressed the workings of the system; detailing that two persons are required to authenticate each stage of the process before launching, with the submarine captain only able to access the firing trigger after two safes have been opened with keys held by the ship's executive and weapons engineering officers. It was explained that all Prime Ministers issue hand-written orders, termed the letters of last resort,[100] seen by their eyes only, sealed and stored within the safes of each of the four Royal Navy Vanguard class submarines. These notes instruct the submarine commander of what action to take in the event of the United Kingdom being attacked with nuclear weapons that destroy Her Majesty's Government in the United Kingdom and/or the chain of command.

Although the final orders of the Prime Minister are at his or her discretion, and no fixed options exist, according to the December 2008 BBC Radio 4 documentary The Human Button there were four known options: retaliating with nuclear weapons, not retaliating with nuclear weapons, the submarine commander uses his own judgement, or the submarine commander places himself under United States or Australian command if possible. This system of issuing notes containing orders in the event of the head of government's death is said to be unique to the United Kingdom (although the concept of written last orders, particularly of a ship's captain, is a naval tradition), with other nuclear powers using different procedures. The letters are destroyed unopened whenever a Prime Minister leaves office.

All relevant former prime ministers have supported an "independent nuclear deterrent", including David Cameron[101] and the incumbent Prime Minister Theresa May.[102] Only one former Prime Minister, Lord Callaghan, has given any insight on his orders: Callaghan stated that, although in a situation where nuclear weapon use was required – and thus the whole purpose and value of the weapon as a deterrent had failed – he would have ordered use of nuclear weapons, if needed: ...if we had got to that point, where it was, I felt it was necessary to do it, then I would have done it (used the weapon)...but if I had lived after pressing that button, I could have never forgiven myself.[103] Lord Healey, Secretary of State for Defence and "alternate decision-taker" under Prime Minister Harold Wilson, said that in the event of Soviet nuclear weapons attacking the United Kingdom and the Prime Minister had been killed or incapacitated, he would not have ordered a retaliation.[103]

The process by which a Trident missile-armed submarine would determine if the British government continued to function included, among other checks, establishing whether BBC Radio 4 continued broadcasting.[104]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_the_United_Kingdom#Nuclear_weapons_control


So even if they managed to make someone Prime Minister whilst in their coalition, they probably couldn't launch anything
 
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Assuming the Tories go for a Minority government, no, definitely not.

For a coalition? No, but maybe they could manipulate the situation to get control. Even then, they wouldn't necessarily be about to launch anything.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_the_United_Kingdom#Nuclear_weapons_control


So even if they managed to make someone Prime Minister whilst in their coalition, they probably couldn't launch anything

Wouldn't be the best idea to launch a nuke on on the republican side of NI anyway.
 
Whose vote do we think is the most solid now? Lab vs. Con wise?

Because the way this is atm, I just see more Con support melting away next time - the Brexit cat is waiting to come out of the bag
 
The EU will not give us a good deal either way ffs, they can't and everyone knows that. Just like everyone knows no matter what slogans our politician's use we won't leave without a deal. Its always take it or leave it.

You're basically saying we should walk in with a gun against our heads in case they don't fancy cleaning up the mess.

There's no way we exit with as good a deal as we have now. Thats implicit in our vote to leave. However how bad our exit terms are is up for discussion.
 
Whose vote do we think is the most solid now? Lab vs. Con wise?

Because the way this is atm, I just see more Con support melting away next time - the Brexit cat is waiting to come out of the bag
"Like a panther leaping out of a tree in the darkness"
 
If May puts country before party, she and the Torries can form a genuine coalition government with Labour.
Corbyn as Deputy PM and a coalition cabinet.

Both sides will have to compromise.

...wont happen though.


She going to the DUP is merely magnifying the election fiasco.
 
The EU will not give us a good deal either way ffs, they can't and everyone knows that. Just like everyone knows no matter what slogans our politician's use we won't leave without a deal. Its always take it or leave it.

You're basically saying we should walk in with a gun against our heads in case they don't fancy cleaning up the mess.

It isn't take it or leave it at all. It is entirely negotiable. Don't try and fool yourself about that just to justify Corbyn's ludicrously stupid approach. Just because the EU can't give a deal as good as the one we have as members doesn't mean the quality of the deal will not be negotiated.
 
If May puts country before party, she and the Torries can form a genuine coalition government with Labour.
Corbyn as Deputy PM and a coalition cabinet.

Both sides will have to compromise.

...wont happen though.


She going to the DUP is merely magnifying the election fiasco.
Labour wouldn't agree to this either, and I don't think it would result in good policy outcomes, stability, or happiness from those who voted for either side.
 


Thought the coalition rumours were a bit odd.
 
Labour wouldn't agree to this either, and I don't think it would result in good policy outcomes, stability, or happiness from those who voted for either side.

no one can get everything.

Compromise is about getting something now for ordinary people who have been hurting too long.

I think Corbyn will see that. But as I said, it is very unlikely to happen.
 
Love Corbyn repeatedly calling for May to resign.

After repeatedly insisting he would remain leader of Labour no matter what the result at the start of campaigning.
 
or propose laws that moderates from other parties will support
Yeah. Confidence and supply is pretty much exactly what it says - a deal get through confidence motions and budgets. There aren't going to be more grammar schools and a return of fox-hunting, too many Tory rebels for those.
 
Love Corbyn repeatedly calling for May to resign.

After repeatedly insisting he would remain leader of Labour no matter what the result at the start of campaigning.
Happy for them both to put their leadership up to a vote by members of their respective parties.
 
Norman Smith BBC: 'Senior Tories say Nick Timothy & Fiona Hill must be sacked this weekend, or leadership challenge on Monday'.
The Times has given both a complete hammering today. Dedicated almost 2 pages in various forms of criticism.
Doubt they'll be getting much employment after this!
 
Assuming the Tories go for a Minority government, no, definitely not.

For a coalition? No, but maybe they could manipulate the situation to get control. Even then, they wouldn't necessarily be able to launch anything.
The precise details of how a British Prime Minister would authorise a nuclear strike remain secret, although the principles of the Trident missile control system is believed to be based on the plan set up for Polaris in 1968, which has now been declassified. A closed-circuit television system was set up between 10 Downing Street and the SSBN Control Officer at the Northwood Headquarters of the Royal Navy. Both the Prime Minister and the SSBN Control Officer would be able to see each other on their monitors when the command was given. If the link failed – for instance during a nuclear attack or when the PM was away from Downing Street – the Prime Minister would send an authentication code which could be verified at Northwood. The PM would then broadcast a firing order to the SSBN submarines via the Very Low Frequency radio station at Rugby. The UK has not deployed control equipment requiring codes to be sent before weapons can be used, such as the U.S. Permissive Action Link, which if installed would preclude the possibility that military officers could launch British nuclear weapons without authorisation.

Until 1998, when it was withdrawn from service, the WE.177 bomb was armed with a standard tubular pin tumbler lock (as used on bicycle locks) and a standard allen key was used to set yield and burst height. Currently, British Trident missile commanders are able to launch their missiles without authorisation, whereas their American colleagues cannot. At the end of the Cold War the U.S. Fail Safe Commission recommended installing devices to prevent rogue commanders persuading their crews to launch unauthorised nuclear attacks. This was endorsed by the Nuclear Posture Review and Trident missile Coded Control Devices were fitted to all U.S. SSBNs by 1997. These devices prevented an attack until a launch code had been sent by the Chiefs of Staff on behalf of the President. The UK took a decision not to install Trident CCDs or their equivalent on the grounds that an aggressor might be able to wipe out the British chain of command before a launch order had been sent.[96][97][98]

In December 2008 BBC Radio 4 made a programme titled The Human Button, providing new information on the manner in which the United Kingdom could launch its nuclear weapons, particularly relating to safeguards against a rogue launch. Former Chief of the Defence Staff (most senior officer of all British armed forces) and Chief of the General Staff (most senior officer in the British Army), General Lord Guthrie of Craigiebank, explained that the highest level of safeguard was against a prime minister ordering a launch without due cause: Lord Guthrie stated that the constitutional structure of the United Kingdom provided some protection against such an occurrence, as while the Prime Minister is the chief executive and so practically commands the armed services, the formal commander-in-chief is the Monarch (to whom they swear allegiance to and indeed, is called the "Royal" Navy/Air Force), to whom the chief of the defence staff could appeal: "the chief of the defence staff, if he really did think the prime minister had gone mad, would make quite sure that that order was not obeyed... You have to remember that actually prime ministers give direction, they tell the chief of the defence staff what they want, but it's not prime ministers who actually tell a sailor to press a button in the middle of the Atlantic. The armed forces are loyal, and we live in a democracy, but actually their ultimate authority is the Queen."[99]
Weapons Engineer Officers Tactical Trigger used to launch a Trident Missile. Taken in 2012 aboard HMS Vigilant during a test launch of an unarmed Trident ballistic missile at sea.
The same interview pointed out that while the Prime Minister would have the constitutional authority to fire the Chief of the Defence Staff, he could not appoint a replacement as the position is appointed by the monarch. During the Cold War the Prime Minister was also required to name a senior member of the cabinet as his/her designated survivor, who would have the authority to order a nuclear response in the event of an attack incapacitating the Prime Minister, and this system was re-adopted after the September 11 attacks.

The programme also addressed the workings of the system; detailing that two persons are required to authenticate each stage of the process before launching, with the submarine captain only able to access the firing trigger after two safes have been opened with keys held by the ship's executive and weapons engineering officers. It was explained that all Prime Ministers issue hand-written orders, termed the letters of last resort,[100] seen by their eyes only, sealed and stored within the safes of each of the four Royal Navy Vanguard class submarines. These notes instruct the submarine commander of what action to take in the event of the United Kingdom being attacked with nuclear weapons that destroy Her Majesty's Government in the United Kingdom and/or the chain of command.

Although the final orders of the Prime Minister are at his or her discretion, and no fixed options exist, according to the December 2008 BBC Radio 4 documentary The Human Button there were four known options: retaliating with nuclear weapons, not retaliating with nuclear weapons, the submarine commander uses his own judgement, or the submarine commander places himself under United States or Australian command if possible. This system of issuing notes containing orders in the event of the head of government's death is said to be unique to the United Kingdom (although the concept of written last orders, particularly of a ship's captain, is a naval tradition), with other nuclear powers using different procedures. The letters are destroyed unopened whenever a Prime Minister leaves office.

All relevant former prime ministers have supported an "independent nuclear deterrent", including David Cameron[101] and the incumbent Prime Minister Theresa May.[102] Only one former Prime Minister, Lord Callaghan, has given any insight on his orders: Callaghan stated that, although in a situation where nuclear weapon use was required – and thus the whole purpose and value of the weapon as a deterrent had failed – he would have ordered use of nuclear weapons, if needed: ...if we had got to that point, where it was, I felt it was necessary to do it, then I would have done it (used the weapon)...but if I had lived after pressing that button, I could have never forgiven myself.[103] Lord Healey, Secretary of State for Defence and "alternate decision-taker" under Prime Minister Harold Wilson, said that in the event of Soviet nuclear weapons attacking the United Kingdom and the Prime Minister had been killed or incapacitated, he would not have ordered a retaliation.[103]

The process by which a Trident missile-armed submarine would determine if the British government continued to function included, among other checks, establishing whether BBC Radio 4 continued broadcasting.[104]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_the_United_Kingdom#Nuclear_weapons_control


So even if they managed to make someone Prime Minister whilst in their coalition, they probably couldn't launch anything
Even if they could, the nukes would be zapped out of the sky by the IRA's secret star wars programme. :smirk:
 
The Times has given both a complete hammering today. Dedicated almost 2 pages in various forms of criticism.
Doubt they'll be getting much employment after this!

I was thinking this Liverpool Football Club transfer committee is a possibility
 


Thought the coalition rumours were a bit odd.

I expect an announcement from May soon to dispel any fears or concerns the public might have, to the effect that she is "very clear that confidence and supply means confidence and supply".
 
I expect an announcement from May soon to dispel any fears or concerns the public might have, to the effect that she is "very clear that confidence and supply means confidence and supply".
Yep she is currently at the engineers getting the cassette turned over.

Side A: strong and stable leadership.

Side B: Confidence and supply means Confidence and Supply and no deal is better than a bad deal.
 
I think it's pretty obvious it doesn't matter who we've got in charge nor how stable their power base is when it comes to upcoming important things...
Brexit negotiations to be conducted by the Conservative Unionist Negotiating Team.