Lib Dem vote share on the redcafe poll has declined from 15% to about 11% while the Tory vote has remained fairly flat. Help us bring it back up @RedSky!
General Election 2017 | Cabinet reshuffle: Hunt re-appointed Health Secretary for record third time
- Thread starter altodevil
- Start date
Reminds me of the "mysterious powers of excel"
This blimmin model of theirs better be moderately accurate
I worded that response badly, admittedly. I meant to say 'without people getting a dig in' in reference to the replies it's getting and I've edited the initial post accordingly.
I already declared voting Lib Dem on the poll.
They predict a 4% avg gap in the race for Nuneaton, so often a bellwether in GEs of late. Definitely within margins of error.
This is a problem with UK elections as well. Very few people can name their local MP (anywhere from 2/3 to 75% based on surveys. Although that number rises to 70% who can recognise their name if presented with it), many people are under the illusion that you vote for who you want as PM as opposed to who you want as your MP, what the civil service does, why it is important to have an indecent judiciary, what bicameral means and so on.
Basically a huge portion of the UK electorate are politically illiterate when it comes to our own political system. Regardless of whether the EU has a democratic deficit or not, the fact that it is both less important to our day to day lives and different has always been an issue.
I'm not sure what the answer is, but the lack of an informed electorate is a huge problem in UK politics and one no seems to want to address.
Competition Update:
- 25 responses
- Conservative majority median: 65
- Labour seats median: 240 (Quite high)
Still have until 5pm tomorrow to enter: https://goo.gl/forms/woYWxbuj3WVKli9L2
- 25 responses
- Conservative majority median: 65
- Labour seats median: 240 (Quite high)
Still have until 5pm tomorrow to enter: https://goo.gl/forms/woYWxbuj3WVKli9L2
Problem with that is we don't have one, we have 10
I could name 2 of mine; Dan Hannan and Nigel Farage. The rest I would struggle with.
Those two things aren't particularly compatible
Has to be something that you teach kids at GCSE level. But rather than making it a subject that has exams you simply put it together as a Public Skills lesson; Sexual Education, Politics, Basic Economics etc. A lesson which is stress free but allows kids to inform kids of valuable life skills for adult life. That would be a start.
I said to a friend last night that after seeing her Sky interview I was worried because she looked unwell and I thought the stress had gotten too much for her. About an hour later we saw the reports about Corbyn saying she was indeed not well. It seems the obvious explanation, to me.
I could tell you all three of my local MPs, but couldn't name any opposition candidates.
For the local elections, I spent hours trying to find out information from the government website, but their website wasn't working... Basically voted blind.
It's pretty off but only by about 20/30 seatsThose two things aren't particularly compatible
Plus the majority needs to be even...
I turned up at mine having researched the candidates and then realised I lived in a completely different ward to the one I thought I did.
Are we going to not bother about the speaker, Sinn Féin and all that?It's pretty off but only by about 20/30 seats
Plus the majority needs to be even...
Suggests a rainbow coalition would be the only way we could form a government...
Blimey.
I'm similar. I can vote in two constituencies. I know the the name of both incumbent MPs, but not the challengers (although I would recognise the conservative's name and could have a stab at it in one of them).
And thats the other issue. How many people can truly give an accurate breakdown between the roles and responsibilities between the various local councils? I'd say somewhere between zero and five percent of the electorate at most.
Nah, over-complicates things. Just assume they form part of 'everyone else'. So it's essentially how many seats more than 326 the Tories win, multiplied by two.
Did a quick data analysis, with projected figures for the other parties, looks like people are only on average 10 seats off a realistic majority + Labour seat count. An intelligent bunch, or just luck? Quite interesting to see who is the most accurate out the lot of you though...
Duality of the Caf - knows Tories will probably win big, still cannot help but predict Labour will do better.It's pretty off but only by about 20/30 seats
Plus the majority needs to be even...
I've also just remembered that Zac Goldsmith is probably winning his seat back on Friday, urgh.
Only thing to watch for is that some places will include the speaker in the tories total seat count and some places won't.
That would either go really well and usher in a new era of progressive politics...
Or really really really badly.
If that yougov forecast turns out to be close tomorrow, will anyone here change their mind about Corbyn?
If he can get in power, I'll be delighted.
He already had changed my mind, because hes donr a lot better. Hes gone from not wanting to use a PMQs to question goverment u turns, because hed rather talk about emergency crisis, to calling her out WWE style
Dangerous - would leave the Wee Krankie pulling the strings for the whole of the UK, not just Scotland.
Edited to add - And not even as a Westminster MP, which seems a bit weird
If that happens, a Lab/SNP coalition is on the cards.
Actually, would also need Lib Dems.
Looking like a hung parliament to me. I think I may have even suggested it might be a few weeks back. I remember the day after the election was called I was in a meeting down in London and I suggested to someone that once Davies and May got out in front of the public opinion would shift. Should have put my money where my mouth was...
The problem is, the 'undecided' and 'prefer not to says' at the end will probably vote Tory anyway.
They have fears over security and blame May, say Corbyn has impressed them and that he looks more Prime ministerial, yet they don't know who they will vote for. It's odd. If they can't say for sure now how they will vote, I doubt anything said today will be able to convince them.
There might just have been too much negative press for Corbyn making the public hesitant in voting for him.
Try and not be optimistic guys, it's going to be a big Tory win.
The problem is that only Yougov and Survation show gaps this small. The other polls seem to have an average of 7%-9% gaps. I think it's because (as mentioned here) Yougov is factoring in high youth support for Labour and this is the group which historically votes least. As well as high turn out amongst 65+ for Tories. It'll only be hung parliament territory if the youth actually get out and vote, otherwise landslide territory.
Maybe, but I'm not convinced there's ever been more of a stigma about voting Labour than there has been right now. It's impossible to say which way they will break and we will find out tomorrow.
Please God, I can't take another Donald Trump like win for Conservatives. Give me some hope and let there be a Labour victory
Really tempted to put £50 on 390-419 Conservative seats at 5/1.
The more vitriolic the conversation regarding voting Tory the more shy the Tory support gets. The tone surrounding this election makes the 2015 election look like a vote for Student Union Treasurer; there's people foaming at the mouth to condemn Tory voters as puppy murdering lunatics.
Any Conservative (or even non-Labour) voter that I've seen verbalise or explain their views (particularly on social media) have been harangued as to why they want to see disabled people dying on the streets, why they want the NHS to be privatised, why they want to cause a nuclear holocaust, why they're happy with nurses using food banks, why they're happy to see our Education system collapse and generally why they are detestable human beings.
Simple and evidence-based assertions like "I don't believe that Labour's version of "fully costing" their manifesto is based on a pragmatic economic reality" are met with a torrent of abuse essentially labeling the non-convert a Tory sociopath; even where the person making the statement has not even mentioned who they're voting for.
You'd genuinely think that some of the questioning of Labour policies were akin to someone questioning the reality of the holocaust.
The more vitriolic the conversation regarding voting Tory the more shy the Tory support gets. The tone surrounding this election makes the 2015 election look like a vote for Student Union Treasurer; there's people foaming at the mouth to condemn Tory voters as puppy murdering lunatics.
Any Conservative (or even non-Labour) voter that I've seen verbalise or explain their views (particularly on social media) have been harangued as to why they want to see disabled people dying on the streets, why they want the NHS to be privatised, why they want to cause a nuclear holocaust, why they're happy with nurses using food banks, why they're happy to see our Education system collapse and generally why they are detestable human beings.
Simple and evidence-based assertions like "I don't believe that Labour's version of "fully costing" their manifesto is based on a pragmatic economic reality" are met with a torrent of abuse essentially labeling the non-convert a Tory sociopath; even where the person making the statement has not even mentioned who they're voting for.
You'd genuinely think that some of the questioning of Labour policies were akin to someone questioning the reality of the holocaust.
Like the look of my Local Labour Candidate. Although she does have a hotmail account.
Its now coin flip between labour and Lib Dems for ny vote
Its now coin flip between labour and Lib Dems for ny vote
There are plenty of twats on both sides finneh.
hotmail!? That's so 90's.
Vote early, vote often.
Pretty much my thoughts on Abbott, hope she takes all the time she needs.
What's your constituency if you don't mind me asking? Are you considering voting tactically?