General Election 2017 | Cabinet reshuffle: Hunt re-appointed Health Secretary for record third time

[CassiusClaymore]

Interesting how some people on my Facebook feed that had plenty to say about the leaked Labour manifesto are strangely silent about the Tory one.

They've really shot themselves in the door foot with that. Blatantly obvious they're relying on Brexit fears to drive them over the finish line.

 

[Sweet Square]

That, the nurse thing the West Indian mothers one too. Obviously not comparing it to apartheid, but she isn't fit to be home sec.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/12029702.Abbott_denies_attack_on_nurses_was_racist/

Jesus! Yeah that's pretty racist and sorta of xenophobic.

While this may be encouraging for the Corbyn supporters who think he has an actual chance of winning, wasn't there a rule of thumb that Labour need to beat the Tories in the % vote by a few points to actually hold a majority in Parliament due to the way even the current boundaries, let alone the new ones, are drawn? Personally I think a narrow loss for Labour where they keep or slightly increase the number of their MPs at the expense of some non-Tory MPs would be the worst result for the party because it means Corbyn will stay on. The Tories will still end up with a slightly increased majority and a weak oppo leader.

On the spoiler, is that made up or real?

Yeah a majority is miracle stuff.

Oh and the tweet in the spoiler is when Corbyn account got hacked, well so he says.

I'm not pro-Tory but at some point you have to recognise that all the polls are probably not massively wrong. Why would anyone who wants to get rid of a Tory government not be angry at a Labour leader making such a piss-poor go of doing it? He's a politician about to lead his party to probably it's worst election performance in more than 100 years. I don't get why he isn't the subject of ire rather than treating him like a special needs fat kid whose trying his hardest at sports day and gets a sympathy applause.e

Your a lot closer than you think.

 

[Sassy Colin]

Anyone who thinks it's going to bad under the Torys, and I think it will be, but I shudder to think the mess Corbyn will leave behind.

Then everyone will blame the Torys again, for having to sort it out.

 

[Dan]

This twitter account.

 

[711]

Really? That I never knew. How does their system work? In general I mean. It's customer to customer?

Ordinary bookmakers don't really set odds either. Well they set them initially, but very soon alter them according to the amount of money bet on each outcome. If you attempt to bet a large sum at the odds offered they are likely to refuse it, or offer to take it but at lower odds. The whole objective of making a book is to ensure that that they make a profit whichever side wins, they don't personally care which it is.

 

[Kentonio]

Anyone who thinks it's going to bad under the Torys, and I think it will be, but I shudder to think the mess Corbyn will leave behind.

Then everyone will blame the Torys again, for having to sort it out.

Nope. The political needle swings left and right and when it goes too far in either direction it needs pushing back. Currently it's so far right it's about to fall off the fecking dial. Four more Tory years is going to create the kind of mess the country might not recover from for a very long time. You can't destroy half the countries public services and then just put them back the day after we eventually get another Labour government. The NHS is teetering on the brink right now.

 

[Sassy Colin]

Nope. The political needle swings left and right and when it goes too far in either direction it needs pushing back. Currently it's so far right it's about to fall off the fecking dial. Four more Tory years is going to create the kind of mess the country might not recover from for a very long time. You can't destroy half the countries public services and then just put them back the day after we eventually get another Labour government. The NHS is teetering on the brink right now.

I sort of agree, but how do you explain the almighty feck up of the last Labour Government, which essentially got us into this mess in the first place? How far to the left was Blair?

 

[Tarrou]

I'm not pro-Tory but at some point you have to recognise that all the polls are probably not massively wrong. Why would anyone who wants to get rid of a Tory government not be angry at a Labour leader making such a piss-poor go of doing it? He's a politician about to lead his party to probably it's worst election performance in more than 100 years. I don't get why he isn't the subject of ire rather than treating him like a special needs fat kid whose trying his hardest at sports day and gets a sympathy applause.

Genuinely don't get why people are so protective over a leader who is pretty much guaranteeing another 5 year term for a party everyone agrees is making life harder for working people in this country. I'm flabbergasted at people who claim to hate the Tories being so supportive of a man they know deep down is probably the number 1 reason behind their massive poll lead and inevitable massive majority on 8th June

The majority of people on this forum are actually openly critical of the guy, check the Corbyn thread. And much of society and the media, in general, seems to hate him. Most people who defend him are doing so not because they think he's the best thing since sliced bread, but because they think he's a better option than May. It's a two horse race so you're always going to get a few people are strongly support one side, which we also have here. The truth is most people are not enamoured with either option, me included.

I complain about him quite a bit and at times I'm angry with his decisions but I'm still voting for him. To me it's a choice between evil or incompetent, a choice between definitely shit or possibly shit. If the Tories committed to increasing corporation tax and spending it on public services, I reckon a lot of the people like me who're voting for the lesser of two evils would vote for May instead.

 

[Kentonio]

I sort of agree, but how do you explain the almighty feck up of the last Labour Government, which essentially got us into this mess in the first place? How far to the left was Blair?

You say almighty feck up, but look at it as a whole. They came into power, pushed everything left and for quite a while improved the country a lot. It was only towards the end of their time in office that they started coming undone and the country needed a change. They didn't actually push that far left especially after the first term because they were basically center right anyway, but they were still to the left of the previous government.

Take out the Iraq War (because let's face it, the Tories would have done exactly the same) and that Blairite government was overall one of the best we've had. I say that as someone who never voted for them at the time incidentally.

 

[Ubik]

The same leader that has managed to cut the same polls you have mentioned in to single figures with over 2 werks to go? The same leader that has managed to get a potentially record amount of young voters registered to vote? Those youngsters aren't polled either i would imagine.

Vote tory by all means but this is a silly post imo.

To clarify, the number that's being put about as "new registrations" is really just new applications to register. Plenty of those will already be registered, others won't be eligible. We had the same thing during the EU referendum.

Youngsters very much are polled, them overstating their likelihood to vote and their willingness to take polls is actually one of the factors that's led to Labour's vote being overestimated in the past.

 

[Tarrou]

I sort of agree, but how do you explain the almighty feck up of the last Labour Government, which essentially got us into this mess in the first place? How far to the left was Blair?

Here's your answer

 

[Sassy Colin]

You say almighty feck up, but look at it as a whole. They came into power, pushed everything left and for quite a while improved the country a lot. It was only towards the end of their time in office that they started coming undone and the country needed a change. They didn't actually push that far left especially after the first term because they were basically center right anyway, but they were still to the left of the previous government.

Take out the Iraq War (because let's face it, the Tories would have done exactly the same) and that Blairite government was overall one of the best we've had. I say that as someone who never voted for them at the time incidentally.

Now I know you're on a WUM

 

[Sassy Colin]

Here's your answer

Umm, exactly.

 

[711]

I sort of agree, but how do you explain the almighty feck up of the last Labour Government, which essentially got us into this mess in the first place? How far to the left was Blair?

Blair was an unusually popular pm, except particularly in two respects:

The Iraq war, which the Conservatives wholeheartedly supported.
He failed to introduce regulation to protect the UK from the world banking and financial meltdown, however the Conservatives themselves always want less regulation, not more.

In general I don't think Blair was far to the left at all, although I think Brown was more that way.

 

[Tarrou]

Umm, exactly.

What do you mean?

 

[Untied]

 

[Chorley1974]

It's not "Fake News" to suggest the media are largely backing May and carrying out a systemic character assassination of Corbyn.

It's the gift that keeps on giving for the media, never has a more inept clown led the opposition.

 

[Smores]

brilliant

 

[Ubik]

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Blair was an unusually popular pm, except particularly in two respects:

The Iraq war, which the Conservatives wholeheartedly supported.
He failed to introduce regulation to protect the UK from the world banking and financial meltdown, however the Conservatives themselves always want less regulation, not more.

In general I don't think Blair was far to the left at all, although I think Brown was more that way.

You could also include PFI, civil liberties, the EU, immigration, motorists, farmers, super bugs, New Labour's target oriented culture, top-down education 'reforms' e.t.c. e.t.c.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

What a clod. No more media work for him.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

Feckin hell. Amazing. Has someone got a massive bung on the Tories? Expect suspicious betting patterns

 

[esmufc07]

Barry Gardiner is very good whenever I see him.

 

[Sassy Colin]

What do you mean?

His point was that when the pendulum swings too far to the left, or right, it needs rebalancing. The fact that Blair was so close to the centre rather debunks that opinion.

 

[Kentonio]

His point was that when the pendulum swings too far to the left, or right, it needs rebalancing. The fact that Blair was so close to the centre rather debunks that opinion.

Except it doesn't. Under the conservative government before Blair, the needle had swung considerably to the right. Blair being a centrist meant it still swung back left under his administration. Not particularly over into the left of the gauge, but rather back towards the centre. Its now swung hard back to the right (probably further than we've seen in modern political times) and we have a choice between sending it even further right, or taking a dramatic swing back slightly left of centre.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Except it doesn't. Under the conservative government before Blair, the needle had swung considerably to the right. Blair being a centrist meant it still swung back left under his administration. Not particularly over into the left of the gauge, but rather back towards the centre. Its now swung hard back to the right (probably further than we've seen in modern political times) and we have a choice between sending it even further right, or taking a dramatic swing back slightly left of centre.

The view in the U.K. is that May still has a lot of centrist aspects to her politics. Her stance on employee rights and free market scepticism has disappointed the right in her party, for example

 

[Tarrou]

His point was that when the pendulum swings too far to the left, or right, it needs rebalancing. The fact that Blair was so close to the centre rather debunks that opinion.

It doesn't debunk that opinion at all.

 

[DenisIrwin]

Best price on Most Seats market on Oddschecker is 20/1 now with 4 bookies. Another 5 have joined Betfair Sportsbook at 10/1.

Betfair exchange bucking the trend on Labour majority, drifting to 47/1. Next best price on offer is 33/1, worst 20/1.

Betfair Exchange in to 17/1 for Most Seats, with Paddypower, Corals and Ladbrokes in to 8/1.

Betfair Exchange now in to 88/5 for Labour Majority, StanJames best priced at 33/1, with two bookies going 20/1.

 

[Kentonio]

The view in the U.K. is that May still has a lot of centrist aspects to her politics. Her stance on employee rights and free market scepticism has disappointed the right in her party, for example

I'm looking at it from outside the UK media circle, and from here it appears that her government are hitting the foundations of the country in ways that mean any centrist positions she might hold or pretend to hold will be fairly irrelevant in a few years. She's using Brexit as cover to attack the big third rails of UK politics such as the NHS and pensioners, compounding the existing ideological changes carried out under Cameron and Osbourne using the excuse of austerity.

Oh and also regarding employee rights, I think people might be in for a few shocks when the next government suddenly have complete control over rewriting EU legislation into UK law. They planned to do it using just the cabinet, and after there was a big fuss about it suddenly May calls an election which will likely give her a huge majority and a 'mandate' on Brexit.

 

[Ubik]

I'm looking at it from outside the UK media circle, and from here it appears that her government are hitting the foundations of the country in ways that mean any centrist positions she might hold or pretend to hold will be fairly irrelevant in a few years. She's using Brexit as cover to attack the big third rails of UK politics such as the NHS and pensioners, compounding the existing ideological changes carried out under Cameron and Osbourne using the excuse of austerity.

Oh and also regarding employee rights, I think people might be in for a few shocks when the next government suddenly have complete control over rewriting EU legislation into UK law. They planned to do it using just the cabinet, and after there was a big fuss about it suddenly May calls an election which will likely give her a huge majority and a 'mandate' on Brexit.

I agree with much of what you say, but this stuff on the left about pensioners at the moment is truly bizarre. They've been protected hugely throughout the coalition and Cameron government, the welfare budget's huge cuts specifically exempted them at the expense of everyone else.

 

[Kentonio]

I agree with much of what you say, but this stuff on the left about pensioners at the moment is truly bizarre. They've been protected hugely throughout the coalition and Cameron government, the welfare budget's huge cuts specifically exempted them at the expense of everyone else.

Of course, pensioners are always protected because they have the highest electoral turnout rate in the country. Traditionally if you piss off the pensioners, you're throwing away the next election. Ideologically its an annoyance to the conservatives because protecting pensioner welfare so strongly isn't part of their bigger ideological picture. Now though they see they have a golden opportunity to finally move in, using Brexit (which pensioners massively supporter) and the fearmongering about the supposedly 'far-left' alternative.

It's kind of ironic really though, the same pensioners who want the country to go back to the 70's via Brexit, simultaneously hate the idea of a 70's style socialist gaining power.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I'm looking at it from outside the UK media circle, and from here it appears that her government are hitting the foundations of the country in ways that mean any centrist positions she might hold or pretend to hold will be fairly irrelevant in a few years. She's using Brexit as cover to attack the big third rails of UK politics such as the NHS and pensioners, compounding the existing ideological changes carried out under Cameron and Osbourne using the excuse of austerity.

Oh and also regarding employee rights, I think people might be in for a few shocks when the next government suddenly have complete control over rewriting EU legislation into UK law. They planned to do it using just the cabinet, and after there was a big fuss about it suddenly May calls an election which will likely give her a huge majority and a 'mandate' on Brexit.

It is part of their manifesto to guarante that employee rights will stay the same as they are in the EU once we leave plus some expansions on rights here and there. It remains to be seen if they stay true to their word but on the employee rights issue I think they will.

 

[Kentonio]

It is part of their manifesto to guarante that employee rights will stay the same as they are in the EU once we leave plus some expansions on rights here and there. It remains to be seen if they stay true to their word but on the employee rights issue I think they will.

Manifesto promises aren't worth the paper they're written on for the most part. They broke a load of the last ones too.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Manifesto promises aren't worth the paper they're written on for the most part. They broke a load of the last ones too.

I know. I think priorities have changed for the Tories though. The biggest problem governing the UK going forward in the medium term will be the impending pensions crisis. The government need a population better capable of financially supporting themselves in old age and that can't be achieved with the 'bonfire of employee rights'. You said yourself that pensioners are the most important voting demographic, especially for The Tories.

 

[Kentonio]

I know. I think priorities have changed for the Tories though. The biggest problem governing the UK going forward in the medium term will be the impending pensions crisis. The government need a population better capable of financially supporting themselves in old age and that can't be achieved with the 'bonfire of employee rights'. You said yourself that pensioners are the most important voting demographic, especially for The Tories.

I think the problem with them though is that they actually genuinely believe a lot of the ideology. They don't see it as a bonfire or workers rights, or trashing pensioners rights, but rather improving the system which will then trickle down to everyone. I suspect that even though they know the changes will be unpopular they're banking on once they happen them being a positive that people come to support. Or at least enough people to keep them in power.

Oh and of course they also have the cover of Brexit. They can put a lot of negative stuff down to the cost of 'taking back control' to distract from the effects of their own policies.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I think the problem with them though is that they actually genuinely believe a lot of the ideology. They don't see it as a bonfire or workers rights, or trashing pensioners rights, but rather improving the system which will then trickle down to everyone. I suspect that even though they know the changes will be unpopular they're banking on once they happen them being a positive that people come to support. Or at least enough people to keep them in power.

Oh and of course they also have the cover of Brexit. They can put a lot of negative stuff down to the cost of 'taking back control' to distract from the effects of their own policies.

I think they realise which is why they introduced compulsory workplace pensions with employer contributions and raised the minimum wage way beyond what was expected of them.

 

[Kentonio]

I think they realise which is why they introduced compulsory workplace pensions with employer contributions and raised the minimum wage way beyond what was expected of them.

Tory ideology isn't intentionally evil (although a lot of it is socially blind), they do want to economically succeed and after they originally opposed the minimum wage, they've clearly seen that it didn't have any of the negative effects they claimed back then. They also don't want a generation of poverty stricken pensioners in the country. My opposition to the Tories is usually when their market driven ideology becomes so focused that they forget (or don't care) about the effects of those policies on real people. The reason I'm so vehemently anti-Tory at the moment is that the party has been pretty much taken over by what I can only describe as ideological extremists. Even now though it doesn't mean they're incapable of doing the right thing from time to time.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Tory ideology isn't intentionally evil (although a lot of it is socially blind), they do want to economically succeed and after they originally opposed the minimum wage, they've clearly seen that it didn't have any of the negative effects they claimed back then. They also don't want a generation of poverty stricken pensioners in the country. My opposition to the Tories is usually when their market driven ideology becomes so focused that they forget (or don't care) about the effects of those policies on real people. The reason I'm so vehemently anti-Tory at the moment is that the party has been pretty much taken over by what I can only describe as ideological extremists. Even now though it doesn't mean they're incapable of doing the right thing from time to time.

It is a fair assessment. We are lumped with them for at least the next term. I think after a period of economic strife resulting from Brexit the ground could be right for for a centre left Labour to take power, one can hope

 

[Kentonio]

It is a fair assessment. We are lumped with them for at least the next term. I think after a period of economic strife resulting from Brexit the ground could be right for for a centre left Labour to take power, one can hope

I think a Labour government in 5 years or less is close to certain, although my predictions for the next 5 years in the UK are pretty horrifying. We'll see.

 

[Pexbo]

There is a little part of me that is wondering if the Tories intention all along has been to throw this election. They're certainly trying their damned hardest with the manifesto and their approach to canvassing and debating.


Thinking logically, it's not a bad mid/long term plan either. Brexit is a no win situation and whoever negotiates it is going to come out of it looking like they have just burnt the country to the ground which isn't far from the truth.

So if they concede this round, they give Labour the impossible task and steal it back once we are in dire straits economically, promising to fix it.