LKY was who I had in mind, but I guess you need a combination of factors for a regime like his to come into and stay in power. Agree he probably will be a one-off.
General Election 2017 | Cabinet reshuffle: Hunt re-appointed Health Secretary for record third time
- Thread starter altodevil
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In fairness Corbyn must be a genius as he's been trying to loose it since before the referendum.
Ok i have a question, who the hell gets polled? And how? It's just i have never been asked which way i'm voting, neither has anybody i know. So i was wondering about the polls.
Corbyn turned up to a fecking Libertines gig.
Phone polls are done by randomly calling numbers and asking if they'd like to take part until you've got enough to call it a representative sample (usually between 1000-2000 responses). With online polls, for YouGov at least you have to sign up to their panel and they'll feed you surveys but you might never get a Westminster voting intention one.
If you think about there being, say, 150 polls in a year, averaging 1,500 responses (and assuming there's no overlap among these people), that still only comes out to 225,000 people - with an electorate of 46.5m as of the 2016 referendum, it's very unlikely any of the vast majority have been individually polled. Ask enough random people on the street though and the chances are a fair few will have been.
Savings and house value will be taken into account among everything else making it in effect a sort of self assesment for the elderly so all the red tape and bureaucracy won't be as easily avoided as you may think.
Corbyn turned up to a fecking Libertines gig.
Ahh ok thank you. I wasn't sure how they did it.
After calling random people, the important thing with polling is to make your sample representative. A smaller sample size is ok if it's representative; increasing your size but not diversity won't help your accuracy.
I would guess they sample based on the last GE, by asking voters how they voted last time, so they can weigh them accordingly. Then you also have to weigh by geography, gender, race, etc if you want your 1000-person sample to look like the electorate at large.
There has been an element of cross-party consensus on pensions stemming back to the 2005 Turner report. Everyone knows we need to either work longer, save more or pay more tax as the population ages and the pension bill soars.
I think Labour introduced auto-enrolment and the Tories expanded it iirc. It's a good policy tbh- excuse the finance nerdery.
Corbyn turned up to a fecking Libertines gig.
Went down really well though by look of it.
It still seems quite easy to see how the polls have been so wrong based on the last two big votes though (last GE and Brexit) as for their best efforts it seems they can only reach a small proportion of the voters.
Polls weren't wrong about Brexit though, was it?
Oh i could be wrong but i think the polls predicted that stay would win?
The latest polls weren't wrong about Brexit or the US election, but 99% of the population think they were.
Ah ok my mistake. Thanks.
The problem with appealing to the young is that the young never fecking vote.
You had girls thinking they were politically engaging by self-declaring themselves #Milifans on Twitter, day of the election you might as well have presented them with a turd with a candle on than explain to them what voting was, the look on their faces would have been similar.
Tories making a complete mess of it. In a largely sympathetic media they've wildly lost control of the school dinners change, winter fuel payment issue and social care funding. Complacency, idiocy or both?
Doesn't give you much faith in how they'll handle Brexit negotiations if composing a thought through manifesto has proven too much.
You had girls thinking they were politically engaging by self-declaring themselves #Milifans on Twitter, day of the election you might as well have presented them with a turd with a candle on than explain to them what voting was, the look on their faces would have been similar.
Tories making a complete mess of it. In a largely sympathetic media they've wildly lost control of the school dinners change, winter fuel payment issue and social care funding. Complacency, idiocy or both?
Doesn't give you much faith in how they'll handle Brexit negotiations if composing a thought through manifesto has proven too much.
Corbyn turned up to a fecking Libertines gig.
Man of the people!
Aye, it makes him seem very personable. It's arguably sort of absurd he's there because he looks so out of place, but then I equally think that makes him sort of endearing, a bit like your out of touch grandparent going to something you're interested in just to be nice. Since he's supposed to be going for a sort of anti-establishment, semi-populist sort of message, doing stuff which is harmless and fun but also gets him some attention can only be a good thing.
While May's cowering and unwilling to meet voters or actually engage with people, Corbyn's quite energised and wants to engage with voters. Whether he's winning over the type he needs to actually win an election is something else, but I think his approach is ideal.
Full speech here
It was in a football stadium, which seemed a bit odd.
It was in a football stadium, which seemed a bit odd.
Yes, the issue is usually with getting a represenative sample since it involves some predictions/guesswork about what the electorate will look like (for example will young people, stay at home or be energized?) I think the turnout of older voters was underestimated for 2015 and Brexit. For Trump, the national polls were right (Hillary did win by 2%), but his win was by a narrow margin in 3 states that the state polls completely failed to pick up.
The polls were only slightly wrong though, mostly around the margin of error. Plenty of polls indicated Brexit would win, and while the Tories winning comfortably in 2015 wasn't expected, it only really required a slight swing on both sides compared to what was predicted. Polls aren't 100% accurate but they're mostly there or thereabouts.
The 2015 GE and Brexit does show that the polls, if anything, underestimate the right-wing vote.
Ok yeah i have just been researching the polls. So that at least indicates that labours recent mini resurgence according to the latest polls means things are looking positive from my personsl point of view. I guess i just have to hope that it isn't too little too late.
2 million people have registered to vote in the last two weeks. Three quarters of them under 25.
Its also worth noting that because the young never vote historically, ALL current polls weight against them, meaning the polling algorithms consider the responses worth much less than any other age group.
Corbyn polls above 60% with the 18 - 25 group.
Making appearances in front of audiences demographically or otherwise assumed to be sympathetic towards you is smart media management of a campaign if you're going great guns and just want to get over the line without too many slip ups.
I get why May does it. It's what Blair did when he only had to avoid being seen publicly eating his own poo to win. I don't really see the upside for Corbyn. If anything, given his polling deficit, he should be taking the John Major approach. Getting on a soap-box and not being afraid to get heckled. Don't think it'd make much difference to the final result but I think Corbyn would get some credit for being 'real' and facing detractors.
How Major campaigned in 1992 should be the blue print for subsequent electoral underdogs, but they've all gone for the sanitised 'home crowd' approach. When you're in front that makes sense, when you're behind it's a waste of time.
I get why May does it. It's what Blair did when he only had to avoid being seen publicly eating his own poo to win. I don't really see the upside for Corbyn. If anything, given his polling deficit, he should be taking the John Major approach. Getting on a soap-box and not being afraid to get heckled. Don't think it'd make much difference to the final result but I think Corbyn would get some credit for being 'real' and facing detractors.
How Major campaigned in 1992 should be the blue print for subsequent electoral underdogs, but they've all gone for the sanitised 'home crowd' approach. When you're in front that makes sense, when you're behind it's a waste of time.
The Last Leg brought a Corbyn lookalike to the ITV studios the night of the Leaders Debate.He attracted a huge crowd in leamington spa town center this week, its a tory held town. In the wirral, he got about 4,000 turn up yesterday in a marginal seat.
He appears to be doing just that. You may not see it on the news for obvious reasons, but that does not mean he isnt.
He appears to be doing just that. You may not see it on the news for obvious reasons, but that does not mean he isnt.
But only people who'll go to a Corbyn speech are Corbyn supporters. He needs to be heckled, standing on a soap box, confronting and fighting. Not drifting to an inevitable loss whilst amongst friends. The Tory issues have been entirely self-inflicted, Corbyn hasn't really done anything himself to strike a blow during the campaign at all because attending rallies in your honour makes a great social media banner picture but doesn't do much else.
Foot spoke to a crowd of 40,000 in York in 1983, a constituency the Tories took from Labour during that election.
My worry for the left, as someone who naturally sympathises ideologically, is that it's all becoming very insular and full of people who can't see pass the end of their noses who keep banging on about big crowds as if losing seats won't matter if 5,000 friends turn up to hear your concession speech.
Making the argument and winning people over has given way to the complacency of 'I must be right, all my friends agree'.
Or he could have gone on a national TV debate and tried to look priministerial
Honestly can't see the point in avoiding it unless even his own team see him as toxic
I think in some respects you're being a bit harsh here...
Just prior to the Libertines gig he was giving a similar speech in front of a large crowd at West Kirby which is in a very marginal seat... strategically making it a good place to campaign. Going on to the stage at the Libertines gig straight after is obviously because they are also pushing hard to get the younger demographic energised enough to vote. Labour know they are more popular with young people but the problem is getting them to vote on the day.
All of this makes far more sense than campaigning in unwinnable constituencies.
Yeah that was very odd. May not going was understandable. Cowardly, but understandable. Corbyn passing up the opportunity to perhaps address some misconceptions about him and his leadership with the excuse of "if she's not doing it, I'm not".
Disagree fighting for marginals shows confidence. Hiding in safe seats exudes damage control. Corbyn isn't the first to do it but taking the approach of 'let's not rock the boat' from a position of inevitable defeat has always been a headscratcher for me. It's the electoral equivalent of losing 3-0 and resolving to shut up shop at half time. What's to lose by going into the Tory marginals and getting on a megaphone and being seen to have the balls to have it out. The argument that is, not your balls.
One of the major issues people who dislike Corbyn have is that it's seen as a bit cultish. The whole 'pro-Corbyn movement'. Showing him addressing large rallies doesn't really assuage that. The Question Time special is a good opportunity for him. Had he spent this election addressing yet convinced small audiences in town halls he'd have done better IMO away from this 'rar rar Jez' approach. That's how run-away leaders campaign, not someone who needs to win people over.
Corbyn is visiting Cannock on Tuesday which has been Tory held since 2010, including Aidan Burley of Nazi stag party fame. Might head down there.
Local candidate is Paul Dadge whose (for want of a better phrase) 'claim to fame' is being one half of one of the most iconic photos from the 7/7 bombings.
Local candidate is Paul Dadge whose (for want of a better phrase) 'claim to fame' is being one half of one of the most iconic photos from the 7/7 bombings.
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Scottish election debate starting now, just in case anyone's interested.
As awful as this election has been with everyone trying their hardest to look more incompetent than the other, the perpetual embarrassment of that Eddie Hitler-look-a-like racist, Paul Nuttall, has been eminently enjoyable.
Who will mention independence more? My bet is on.... rape clause Ruth