I’m pretty sure we will be closer to relegation than top in November. We are 10 points from the top and only 5 above relegation now, so there’s already a pretty sizeable gap. Even if we were to get 10 points in the next 5, I am not sure this would do it as we’d probably still be 10+ from the top, so we would have to count on the 18th placed team to be on less than 7 which is very unlikely.
We were 31 points off top and 34 points above relegation last year but Luton got relegated with 26 points at 18th spot which is abnormal. It’s typically more than 30 points and closer to 35 to stay up, and 90+ to win the league.
I wouldn’t really have ‘points above 16th place’ as a metric and still find it super weird that you pay so much attention to if. It’s not much more relevant than points over 12th and points above/below 9th placed team after the same game week in 1994. I’ve literally never heard ‘points above 16th place’ being used to measure performance, it’s not even a relegation zone or anything, it’s just a random spot in the table.
Btw Ole was obviously not 23 off top after 12 games, having won 17 points. That’s not even mathematically possible.