To extend it to the World Cup, you've got the group of Argentina, Brazil, France, Germany and Spain that, short of an off-period, you expect to be among the favourites. You can probably add Italy and Portugal to that too. England (under Southgate) are simply never beating one of those sides unless they're in a truly shit period.
Then you've got the next group, which is a bit less static, but in recent(ish) tournaments has included the likes of Belgium, Colombia, Croatia, Denmark, Netherlands, Switzerland and Uruguay, as well as one-off tournament surprises like Costa Rica 2014, Wales 2016 or Morocco 2022 that England (under Southgate) probably go in with a 50/50 chance of beating.