Sorry, all, this will be a long post.
I'll explain how Ronaldo is the biggest problem we have and how he no longer is what he used to be.
I'll start with the simple stuff: How is he doing as a striker when we have the ball compared to average strikers in the PL.
- Does he get enough service/is he good at finding himself in good scoring positions to finish off chances?
Ronaldo has the 3rd highest npxG90 in the League with 0,58 npxG90 (non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes. Calculated from every chance a player has had during this season and how many goals an average finisher in the top 5 leagues is expected score from those chance using different matrix), only beaten by Salah (0,75) and Jota (0,67), in the PL. In other words Ronaldo seems to get both good service and still be good at making himself available for service. Not like in the good old days, and his npxG90 has had a negative trend since his golden years at Real Madrid, but still good. Since 2014 his npxG90 has varied from 0,6-0,94 at Real Madrid and Juventus.
Let's compare his output with some random strikers in the PL (all the numbers given are per 90 minutes on the pitch):
Non penalty goals and full 90s played/Shots per 90/Shots on target per 90/nxpG90/non-penalty goals per 90/diff (goal - npgX90)
Ronaldo: 6 non penalty goals in 14,8 full 90s / 3,80 (56 shots)/1,29 (19 shots on target) /0,58 (npxG90) /0,41 (np Goals90)/ -0,17 (Underperforming his npxG90 by 29,3%)
Antonio: 8 non penalty goals in 18,4 full 90s / 2,93 (54 shots)/0,92 (17 shots on target)/0,44 (npxG90)/0,43 (np Goals90)/ -0,01 (Underperforming his npxG90 by 2,3%)
Dennis: 8 non penalty goals in 14,5 full 90s / 2,42 (35 shots)/1,38 (20 shots on target)/0,24 (npxG90)/0,55 (np Goals90)/ +0,31 (Overperforming his npxG90 by 129,2%)
Maupay: 6 non penalty goals in 14,3 full 90s / 2,24 (32 shots)/0,92 (9 shots on target)/0,36 (npxG90)/0,42 (np Goals90)/ +0,06 (Overperforming his npxG90 by 16,7%)
Watkins: 5 non penalty goals in 15,1 full 90s / 2,31 (35 shots)/1,06 (16 shots on target)/0,38 (npxG90)/0,33 (np Goals90)/ -0,05 (Underperforming his npxG90 by 15,1%)
+ dream target from Bundesliga:
Haaland: 10 non penalty goals in 10,0 full 90s / 4,10 (41 shots)/1,80 (18 shots on target)/0,65 (npxG90)/1,0 (np Goals90)/ +0,35 (Overperforming his npxG90 by 53,8%)
Ronaldo has the 2nd most finishes per 90 in the league (beaten only by Salah), the 3rd highest npxG90 and still sits on just 6 non penalty goals (shared 10th with 5 other players in the league). He is getting 2nd most service in the league, to claim anything else is just a lie. He has hit a couple of brilliant goals this season, but he misses more chances than most in the league.
Assists and setting up teammates inside the box:
PPA90 (completed passes into the penalty box excluding set pieces per 90)Assists/xA90/A per 90
Ronaldo: 0,41 completed passes into the penalty box per 90/3 assists/0,11xA90/0,20 assists per 90.
Antonio: 0,92 completed passes into the penalty box per 90/5 assists/0,24xA90/0,27 assists per 90.
Dennis: 0,62 completed passes into the penalty box per 90/5 assists/0,17xA90/0,34 assists per 90.
Maupay: 0,77 completed passes into the penalty box per 90/1 assists/0,11xA90/0,07 assists per 90.
Watkins: 0,66 completed passes into the penalty box per 90/1 assists/0,06xA90/0,07 assists per 90.
+ dream target from Bundesliga:
Haaland: 1,3 completed passes into the penalty box per 90/5 assists/0,31xA90/0,50 assists per 90.
Dispite a couple of brilliant headers to teammates he rarely looks for teammates when closing in on goal, compared to other forwards. Ronaldo and Dennis' teammates have made them look better than they are at creating chances by massively overachieving their chances from passes from them. His link up play simply hasn't been very impressive for us.
Bruno for instance has been let down by bad finishing from his teammates this season (0,28xA90 /0,18 assists per 90)
Now to the most depressing part: Pressing
Pressings per 90/successfull pressings per 90/pressings in the attacking 3rd
Ronaldo: 6,28 pressings per 90 / 1,69 successfull pressing per 90/ 2,84 pressings in the attacking 3rd per 90 (!!)
Antonio: 13,3 pressings per 90 / 3,97 successfull pressing per 90/ 7,01 pressings in the attacking 3rd per 90
Dennis: 20,8 pressings per 90 / 4,76 successfull pressing per 90/ 7,31 pressings in the attacking 3rd per 90
Maupay: 19,9 pressings per 90 / 5,73 successfull pressing per 90/ 10,49 pressings in the attacking 3rd per 90
Watkins: 15,43 pressings per 90 / 4,17 successfull pressing per 90/ 7,48 pressings in the attacking 3rd per 90
+ dream target from Bundesliga:
Haaland: 12,6 pressings per 90 / 3,6 successfull pressing per 90/ 8,5 pressings in the attacking 3rd per 90
His pressing is historically bad, that is why it is an issue and why we talk about it. If he just did the minimum, maybe the story would be different, but he doesn't even do half of the minimum in the attacking third. When we lose the ball he moans and throws his arms up in the air instead of chasing the ball. Most chances in football are created when you catch the opponent when it is unorganized, and the closer you get to the opponents goal when you gain possession the more unorganized the opponent is. The same goes for the faster you gain possession after you lose it the more unorganized the opponents are. Now look at the numbers above and explain to me how his workrate when we lose the ball or when we in general do not have the ball doesn't affect our general play and chance creationrate.
Playing a striker like him means the following:
- We win the ball when the opponent is unorganized less often
- We play against organized defenses more often
- We let our opponents enter our half with the ball more often
- All our outfield player except Ronaldo gets a higher workload and must cover larger areas to cover for him, which leads to more room for our opponents and our players getting more pumped and plays worse football.
....and when, as showed above, he doesn't even add more goals or isn't more effective than an average PL striker.
What's the point!?
