It's a hell of a lot better than 1 goal in the last 20 games hes had now.....
Well, the numbers tells us that would probably be the case.
Instead of comparing him with average strikers in the premier league, because I've already done that, let's compare him to some top strikers this season:
All these numbers are from the players respective leagues:
Shots per 90 minutes/Shots on target per 90 minutes/Shots on target %/npxG per 90 minutes/non penalty goals per 90 minutes
Ronaldo - 3,80sh90 / 1,29sh-t90 / 33,9% / 0,58 npxG90 / 0,41 non penalty goals per 90 minutes - Underperforming his non-penalty expected goals by 29,3%
Benzema - 3,81sh90 / 1,62sh-t90 / 42,4% / 0,54 npxG90 / 0,81 non penalty goals per 90 minutes - Overperforming his non-penalty expected goals by 50%
Salah - 3,94sh90 / 1,62sh-t90 / 41,0% / 0,67 npxG90 / 0,71 non penalty goals per 90 minutes - Overperforming his non-penalty expected goals by 4,5%
Lewa - 4,66sh90 / 2,30sh-t90 / 49,3% / 1,14 npxG90 / 0,99 non penalty goals per 90 minutes - Underperforming his non-penalty expected goals by 13,2%
Haaland - 4,10sh90 / 1,80sh-t90 / 43,9% / 0,65 npxG90 / 1,00 non penalty goals per 90 minutes - Overperforming his non-penalty expected goals by 53,8%
Vlahovic - 3,35sh90 / 1,27sh-t90 / 38,1% / 0,34 npxG90 / 0,58 non penalty goals per 90 minutes - Overperforming his non-penalty expected goals by 70,6%
If you take out Lewandowski who is the extreme when it comes to service and being available to service, and Vlahovic who is in the other end of the scale and makes a lot out of the little he gets, you see that the other examples here get similar amount of service and chances in their respective teams.
Benzema has scored 98% more non penalty goals per 90 minutes than Ronaldo this season despite having and npxG90 that is 7% lower.
Haaland has scored 144% more non penalty goals per 90 minutes than Ronaldo this season despite having and npxG90 that is just 12% higher.
Salah scored 73% more non penalty goals per 90 minutes than Ronaldo this season despite having and npxG90 that is just 16% higher.
It's not hard to believe at all that we would score a lot more goals if we had a more efficient striker up top.
The other thing that all these strikers have in common is that they bring a lot more than goals to their team, like :
Creating more chances for others (except Vlahovic):
Ronaldo - 0,11 expected assists per 90
Benzema - 0,21 expected assists per 90 (91% more than Ronaldo)
Salah - 0,31 expected assists per 90 (182% more than Ronaldo)
Lewa - 0,21 expected assists per 90 (91% more than Ronaldo)
Haaland - 0,31 expected assists per 90 (182% more than Ronaldo)
Vlahovic - 0,10 expected assists per 90 (9% less than Ronaldo)
Pressing a lot more (Benzema, Lewandowski and Vlahovic less than most forwards, but still a lot more than Ronaldo):
Ronaldo: 6,28 pressings per 90 / 1,69 successfull pressing per 90/ 2,84 pressings in the attacking 3rd per 90 (!!)
Benzema: 9,42 pressings per 90 / 2,43 successfull pressing per 90/ 5,38 pressings in the attacking 3rd per 90
Salah: 13,84 pressings per 90 / 3,74 successfull pressing per 90/ 7,93 pressings in the attacking 3rd per 90
Lewa: 8,14 pressings per 90 / 2,80 successfull pressing per 90/ 5,09 pressings in the attacking 3rd per 90
Haaland: 12,6 pressings per 90 / 3,6 successfull pressing per 90/ 8,5 pressings in the attacking 3rd per 90
Vlahovic: 9,04 pressings per 90 / 2,45 successfull pressing per 90/ 5,43 pressings in the attacking 3rd per 90
His pressing is historically bad, that is why it is an issue and why we talk about it. If he just did the minimum, maybe the story would be different, but he doesn't even do half of the minimum in the attacking third. When we lose the ball he moans and throws his arms up in the air instead of chasing the ball. Most chances in football are created when you catch the opponent when it is unorganized, and the closer you get to the opponents goal when you gain possession the more unorganized the opponent is. The same goes for the faster you gain possession after you lose it the more unorganized the opponents are. Now look at the numbers above and explain to me how his workrate when we lose the ball or when we in general do not have the ball doesn't affect our general play and chance creationrate.
Playing a striker like him means the following:
- We win the ball when the opponent is unorganized less often
- We play against organized defenses more often
- We let our opponents enter our half with the ball more often
- All our outfield player except Ronaldo gets a higher workload and must cover larger areas to cover for him, which leads to more room for our opponents and our players getting more pumped and plays worse football.
We have better finishers, harder workers and better teamplayers in this squad that is ready to step in up front. Let Ronaldo come in as an impact sub when needed.