I read the thread because I'm currently bored and I'm a chronic procrastinator. The OP did a great job laying out the details (which will be the PL's case plus a few things maybe)
IF the PL can prove the contents of the original thread then yes, City are fecked and the only question is how severe their punishment will be (don't think owners can be forced to sell but expulsion from the league is not improbable)
His argument rests on 3 pillars IMO:
1. UEFA were careless with their case; the PL is not
2. CAS made mistakes in their judgement
3. There is more evidence out there against City beyond what has been seen publicly, that Der Spiegel got from the leaks
Firstly, it's premature to put carelessness beyond the PL. Not even considering external pressures (independent regulator concerns, lobbying from other clubs), what the PL is trying to prove (that City cooked the books) vs their powers and capabilities as a private body with zero subpoena powers has always come across as a big mismatch. From what we have seen with Everton and Forest and other affairs, the PL doesn't have the reputation of an organization that can close this case against an independent panel, so absolute confidence in them is premature
Regarding CAS messing up the judgement: this doesn't follow. Their judgement is that some stuff was time barred (no judgement on those) and for the stuff that wasn't time barred, there was not evidence to support UEFA's claims. That is a ruling that can't be disproven by claims CAS didn't do their job properly, or that City had a hand in selecting some of the judges. You'll need additional evidence above and beyond what UEFA provided to CAS.
Lastly, is it probable that Der Spiegel/the hacker withheld hard evidence that would have served as insurmountable evidence of City's guilt (what was submitted and wasn't time barred wasn't for CAS) to preserve for the PL? I'm skeptical. I'm also skeptical that in the face of dead to rights evidence, City's counsel would not strongly advise City to settle quickly instead of going down a path where if (most surely) found guilty, they would be slammed down the pyramid. "Waiting for the UK Government to intervene and end the case prematurely" doesn't work; that undermines public trust in the club and the PL, and has secondary effects. They're in so deep that their only hope is in the charges being publicly dismissed by the KCs (putting their reputations on the line) on the independent panel.
City's rise to where they are today couldn't have happened without external cash (inorganic if you will). Proving that before an independent panel, where what you submit will be challenged by said panel and City's (competent yet non-magician) lawyers... Regardless of what that thread says, the PL are fighting uphill on this one. It's like when you hear the prosecution's opening statement and you think, "of course they're guilty". But then cross-examination happens and then the defense rips the prosecution's case apart. Or not. Time will tell.
