I'd put Arsenal as favourites, City narrowly behind them, us narrowly behind City, and Liverpool and Chelsea both some way behind us. Arsenal for obvious reasons. City because they're the champions and can still basically match anyone else's wage offer. Us because of van Gaal, because of our general reputation, because of the chance to link up with stars like Mata, Rooney and RVP but still be absolutely guaranteed a starting berth in his best position, and because we should be keen enough to pay the big bucks.
Chelsea's big money will be going towards strikers this season. Plus Mourinho doesn't suit Fabregas and Fabregas wouldn't suit Mourinho. Mourinho's CMs are always defenders first, creators second - Fabregas does his bit in terms of work rate and defending, but compare him to Ballack, Cambiasso, Khedira, Alonso, Matic and he clearly doesn't fit the bill. And Mourinho already ditched a highly specialist #10 because he prefers Oscar, so he's hardly going to spend £30m to bring in the less suitable Fabregas to play there.
And Liverpool just won't have the pull. Fabregas won't have been watching their much-vaunted 'wonderful football' (read: caution to the wind and got away with it for a few games before coming up against two managers with the savvy to neutralise that approach.) Ok, they've got CL football, but to Fabregas names like Sterling, Sturridge, Coutinho and Henderson - absolutely central players in Liverpool's season - are hardly going to scream 'top team'. They might not have the finances to attract him either.