What do you want from the custom agreement, what do you want to trade and how freely do you want to do it?
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What do you want from the custom agreement, what do you want to trade and how freely do you want to do it?
Conservative days are numbered. I seriously cannot see how they can continue to stay in power after the absolute mess they have turned this country into. That's without taking into consideration the austerity factor. If they somehow retain power, well I don't know what to say, I might retire from service and leave the country or something. I cannot live in a country full of idiots
Problem when it comes to Brexit is that Corbyn and Labour don't really have any coherent, unified policy on it at the moment either, because they themselves know committing to a hard or soft Brexit is political suicide. And I say that as someone who likes Corbyn, and who'd much rather see him in government than the current mob. Corbyn in charge will hopefully improve a fair bit but it still leaves us in a mess when it comes to Brexit.
Starting from a basis of being in the EU and moving outwards...
What do you want from the custom agreement?
For the UK: Frictionless trade with the EU, our largest trading partner.
For the EU: Frictionless trade with the UK, but also to maintain some control of the UK and prevent the UK becoming a tax haven.
What do you want to trade and how freely do you want to do it?
For the UK: Pretty much everything. Right now, we have perfect regulatory alignment and no tariffs whatsoever. The UK doesn't actually have any areas where it currently wants to diverge from EU regulations, or at least very few. The UK want's to trade everything from food to car parts.
We want to trade everything as freely as possible.
For the EU: Harder to know what the EU wants but you may as well copy the above answer.
I keep banging on, but the majority of UK MPs are remainers. They didn't want the UK to be leaving the EU at all.
According to that the UK want to be part of the single market and the EU custom Union. The single markets represents "pretty much everything" and the EU custom union is "frictionless trade". I hope that you see the problem here.
That's irrelevant to the future, we are talking about the future relationship not the past.
Yeah, fail to see how most of the above can happen if we intend to leave the single market.
No I don't see the problem
Of course the being in the Single Market and Customs Union is the best we could get. But the political reality is that, that isn't on the table right now. 20 years down the line, we can start to talk about it again.
So the UK want the second best option. And the second best option, is a Norway style deal without the Single Market. Whether or not UK Politicians can stop in-fighting for long enough to realise that that is what they want, and whether the EU will accept that is another matter.
Also, the Single Market is about a *hell* of a lot more than just trade
No I don't see the problem
Of course the being in the Single Market and Customs Union is the best we could get. But the political reality is that, that isn't on the table right now. 20 years down the line, we can start to talk about it again.
So the UK want the second best option. And the second best option, is a Norway style deal without the Single Market. Whether or not UK Politicians can stop in-fighting for long enough to realise that that is what they want, and whether the EU will accept that is another matter.
Also, the Single Market is about a *hell* of a lot more than just trade
I'm sorry but this is bordering on lunacy, a Norway style deal without the Single Market isn't a Norway style deal particularly when you don't even want the rest which are Schengen and a soft regulated border, not an open border.
Norway style deal without the Single Market is essentially the one Canada negotiated.No I don't see the problem
Of course the being in the Single Market and Customs Union is the best we could get. But the political reality is that, that isn't on the table right now. 20 years down the line, we can start to talk about it again.
So the UK want the second best option. And the second best option, is a Norway style deal without the Single Market. Whether or not UK Politicians can stop in-fighting for long enough to realise that that is what they want, and whether the EU will accept that is another matter.
Also, the Single Market is about a *hell* of a lot more than just trade
Sometimes it's worth kicking the gov't in the stones to remind them you exist, despite the consequences and maybe despite personal loss. Watch a government collapse and eat popcorn. Thats what Woody Guthrie would have done.
Similar, but including regulatory alignment, open borders (with Ireland), visa less travel, and maybe some degree of single market reciprocity
Canada are essentially already aligned with the US
Lunacy? What you describe as lunacy, I describe as inevitable.
Of course Norway without single market isn't the same as Norway proper. But that's what we're going to end up with.
Regulatory alignment, abiding by EU decisions on most subjects (with some political obfuscation), an open border with Ireland, visaless travel, fairly frictionless trade, etc.
You can describe that as CETA+ or Norway- but that's the inevitable end
"Regulatory alignment" has no ground in reality, particularly when the ones talking about it also mention flexibility on laws and standards, without a complete abidance to EU rules and regulations written in a treaty, you are not getting an open border and frictionless trade.
That article summarize it well, https://www.ft.com/content/4fddeb2e-7e92-3d81-b0a7-9dfeb6055510
It's right up there with "frictionless border without customs union" and "bespoke deal".
There's a tendency to flee into the vague whenever confronted with real world problems.
But I've repeatedly said we will be abiding by eu rules. I think your arguing against the position you want me to have
Can you seriously see the UK abiding by all eu rules (including future ones) though? I don't think those peddling "take back control" could ever be satisfied with that... They will instantly start undermining any agreement that entails that, starting it all over again.
(Sorry, don't mean to answer for @JPRouve , but I don't think he's arguing with you, more the idea that "regulatory alignment" could really be turned into a working policy).
Yes. There will be some political obfuscation, i.e. some UK body that has to ractify any changes.. but yes. We will still be abiding by EU rules after brexit
Exactly, it makes no sense. Unless the UK set their alignment in stones which basically mean being a member of a custom union with the EU then there is no way for an open border, a simple regulatory alignment means regulated borders because there is no way that a economic area just trusts a different jurisdiction.
Quelle surprise.
The whole thing is obviously a shit show, but whats more worrying than anything is if the Tories supposed list of antithetical aims can be taken at face value then there's a huge, huge amount of work that needs to be done to stop the country grinding to a halt on Leave day which simply has not been started yet.
And why can't the UK be a member of a customs union with the EU in a same or similar way to how Norway, Iceland, Monaco, Turkey and Switzerland are?
It didn't require single market that's simply not true
It can, but that would mean the UK having to abide to EU rules in terms of trade deals. Also the customs union will offer frictionless trade in terms of goods not services.
It can, but that would mean the UK having to abide to EU rules in terms of trade deals
What do you mean? Norway and the EFTA have their own trade deals... Maybe you aren't being clear?
And yes single market is dead
This isn't what I want to happen, this is what I think will happen
There is no one stopping any EU member from signing individual trade deals. Germany have signed trade deals with China in 2011. However these trade deals have a certain scope and must abide to EU laws to make sure that a level playing field is kept. The more complex the deal is, the more 'intrusion' from the EU it may need. Mixed trade deals such as the one done with Canada need the consensus of all EU members.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13954148
Turkey abides to pretty much the same principle. The difference is that while Germany has unrestricted access to the EU market. Turkey only have access in terms of goods.
And if the single market is dead then the Tory government wouldn't spend so much time begging for preferential access to it.
Which is why I asked you, what do you(the UK) want from a future custom agreement, that question hasn't been answered. The countries you mentioned have very different situations.
Monaco: are part of Schengen, partially part of the Single Market, part of the VAT area and part of the EU custom union. Open border.
EFTA: are part of Schengen, part of the single Market. Not open borders, regulated ones.
Turkey: are partially part of the EU custom union but they have a hard and regulated border.
You know Norway and the efta strike free trade agreements without EU approval?
The Norway deal without the single market is not the Norway deal at all.
And why should the EU give a bespoke deal to the UK considering that it didn't offered such terms to a much richer/influential country (the US)?
True but it still need to stick to EU rules and regulations else it loses access to the single market. Also note that Norway pays more per capita into the EU coffers then the British.
Im not really interested in discussing why the EU will offer it, but I think they will.
The us would never submit to any EU control aka Norway. The UK will
Yes and the UK will do that also.. even though she didn't want the single market
So basically the UK will submit to the EU control, which will 'free it' to make trade deals. However those trade deals must be in line to the EU rules and regulations, rules btw, the UK has lost any right of influencing or VETO since its not an EU member anymore.
Sweet. It kind of reminds me of my country when it was still part of the British empire.
Yep! A kind of satellite state. Hence why brexiteers are rebelling
To be honest its been answered many times, its just what we ask for isnt actually an option.
To put it at its simplest, we want open borders for trade (especially in services - yes we know no major trade agreement has ever been signed that involves services, but we want to do the first, and we want to do it in record time) but closed borders for people. With no impediment to our ability to deals with other countries.
Yes I get the protest vote but I don't believe in fairies and unicorns nor self-harm.
The government held an election after the vote and still won. Yes they're in deep trouble but do you seriously think they give a toss whether some poor soul voted to leave the EU in protest hoping for a better life.
Do you even think they care whether the UK are in the EU or not, do you think Corbyn cares either?
The only thing they all care about is power and self-interest. The NHS , social care, infrastructure and all the rest people want improved will only happen if people are prepared to pay for it and no political party will ever get elected in the UK if they said they were going to provide much improved services but tax is going to be increased by 5p or 10p in the £1.
It's my fault for not being explicit, what are your non ridiculous wishes? Full access to the single market without the four freedoms isn't an option, so it shouldn't be mentioned at this point.
Oh right. There are no non-ridiculous wishes.
Im sure it was mentioned yesterday, but I laughed out loud when I was watching C4N last night. They had Peter Bone on (pro-Brexit MP) who said the EU could have customs checks on its side but we wouldnt bother with them on the UK side. He also said Ireland, when it came to it, wouldnt bother putting a border up with NI. This whole business of having borders is all just a big bluff, part of Project Fear, he insinuated. Why would anyone want borders anyway? Its not like this whole thing has been about keeping the foreigners out. We can leave the EU but then not actually have a border and not actually check who is coming in or leaving.
So to come back to your question again @JPRouve, there is very little about the debate in this country which would qualify as "non-ridiculous".
So to come back to your question again @JPRouve, there is very little about the debate in this country which would qualify as "non-ridiculous".
1) a deep and comprehensive free trade agreement
2) trade to be as frictionless as possible
3) regulatory alignment
4) continued closely following EU rules and regulations, with some deviations where appropriate #sovereignty
5) open borders with Ireland
6) visaless travel with EU
7) to be out of the single market
8) reciprocal single market access
9) ability to make own free trade deals with rest of world (not sure if you want this)
(But you can ignore number 8)
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The regulatory alignment one is a big stumbling once you get past woolly sentiment and try nailing it down. If we align with the EU it means when they change their rules we have to change with them, or we come out of alignment. Which is problematic #sovereignty.
I know you think we will just end up accepting that anyway, and maybe we will. But it is highly unsatisfactory, if you think about the reasons given for actually coming out. Im repeating myself but it just means when we come to the end of this process the people who wanted out wont actually be satisfied. Which means the EU remains a massive political issue for the foreseeable future.
The problem is that your list is just an accumulation of good sounding politicians formulas, only (5), (6) and (7) have an actual meaning. And they don't go with (4) which also doesn't go with (3). If (3) doesn't work then (2) doesn't exist and (1) goes against (7). All of that without even getting into anything actually deep and comprehensive, 18 months of PR and we are still in the most superficial phase imaginable.
Like said earlier by Rajma, CETA is the closest model but there are no open borders because Canada aren't full members of the single market and aren't members of Schengen.