Vote today on whether Johnson can have an election. If it passes Parliament will be dissolved next week and an election will be held in December
If it doesn’t pass then I would assume No. 10 will use a few other means of trying to force an election.
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Vote today on whether Johnson can have an election. If it passes Parliament will be dissolved next week and an election will be held in December
If it doesn’t pass then I would assume No. 10 will use a few other means of trying to force an election.
Today (28) - Fixed term parliament act - needs 67% of MP's to vote for it - unless the opposition change their mind based on the EU extension looks likely to fail
29th - If election vote passed then further debate on the boris brexit bill - if not then erm well actually it gets a bit sketchy but I think the opposition have only 2 moves either to try and take control of the order paper under standing order 24 (before the speaker retires) and force something about trying to guarantee no deal - possibly even bringing back mays deal and trying to ammend it or even going with the indicative votes again... or alternatively having a vote of confidence in the PM (not sure what would happen but I suspect it would be close)
30th - depends what happened on 28th / 29th but with the speaker only having 1 more day till he stands down I suspect its now or never for peoples vote to try and push something through
31st - Speaker stands down - lots of speeches with added snarky remarks from brexiteers
1,2,3 Parliament not sitting
Monday 4th - new speaker elected
so by next week we may or may not have a new PM (or boris could be defeated but nobody found to head a GNU) - we may have further legislation about no deal or a referendum - or we may have the 2nd reading (with or without amendments or either the boris deal or the may deal passed - or it could have crashed and burned)
We will be about to elect a new speaker...
and just a thought but bercow to head a GNU if he is no longer speaker????????? (assuming there has been a confidence motion and boris defeated the week before and either corbyn has tried and failed or he hasnt tried knowing he will not win)
Basically a week is a long time in politics and nobody really knows
Corbyn has to rethink his plan now though... will he back a second referendum based on the only deal there is vs remain or not
Didn't stick that on the bus did they.....
"I'm fed up because I walk down the street and still see"
Foreigners - 50%
A lack of British flags being waved about as we celebrate the resurgence of our Glorious Empire - 50%
Not sure - the only other way is to introduce an amendable motion and whilst that only needs a simple majority (e.g. election 12th December)
That could be amended to parliament will approve an election on 12th May once the EU has granted and extension to 1st June and a confirmatory referendum has been help between the withdrawal deal and remain.
I'm not sure the conservatives are prepared to risk that... most probably they trudge on offering votes on a daily basis under the Fixed term parliament act - perhaps mogg has some arcane parliamentary shenanigans up his ill fitting sleeves
The commissioner is nominated by the UK government and then confirmed if accepted by the parliament.
Yes the UK have never taken voting for their MEPs seriously. Farage stealing a living for 20 years as an MEP, nice pension when he's 63, what has he ever done for the UK, just preach bile and hatred. In the last election, admittedly under special circumstances out of 73 MEPs only 4 are Tory and 10 Labour. 14 seats of the two major parties.
I still think they have the option of resigning their government even if it's untested under FTPA. It just depends on how afraid they are of the opposition forming a government themselves.
28th January 2020 - can we please have another three months. 28th January 2030 - BoB Corbyn takes a decision. 28th January 2040 - UK finally regain admission to the EU after 19 years of pleading.
What makes you believe that the UK hasn't taken voting for their MEP's seriously? The UK has voted consistently for more and more eurosceptic MPs who they want to push a less close partnership, based on trade rather than political union, for the last 25 years. The fact that the EU is further away from this than ever before suggests that firstly UK MEP's have very limited power and secondly that the limited power they do have doesn't change or influence EU policy.
1994 EU elections - UKIP - 1% - 150k votes - 0 seats
1999 EU elections - UKIP - 6.5% - 700k votes - 3 sears
2004 EU elections - UKIP - 15.6% - 2.65m votes - 12 seats
2009 EU elections - UKIP - 16% - 2.5m votes - 13 seats
2014 EU elections - UKIP - 26.6% vote - 4.4m votes - 24 seats
2019 EU elections - BP - 30.5% vote - 5.2m votes - 29 seats
The stark contrast between how growing parties are listened to domestically and in the EU is a key reason for the referendum. A party in the UK who had risen from 1% of the vote to over 30% in 25 years would have a huge effect on domestic policy. Whether you disagree or not with their views, the difference between UKIP/BP on UK policy (huge) and EU policy (non-existent) is the reason for the vote.
Now Macron has acquiesced to the EU (Is anyone really surprised) is Corbyn ready to loose his election yet?
I would expect if the Gov lose today's vote they will join with SNP and libdems to do a one line bill to get an election.
On that note does anyone think that SNP and lib-dems have sold out remain to win a few extra seats in a new brexit parliament?
Unless pollsters are wrong again this election will give the conservatives the number they need to get not only brexit done, but the next five years of going it alone as an independent nation including the negotiations on all trade agreements world wide.
This could be the biggest election in UK history - shaping the country for generations.
I would expect if the Gov lose today's vote they will join with SNP and libdems to do a one line bill to get an election.
On that note does anyone think that SNP and lib-dems have sold out remain to win a few extra seats in a new brexit parliament?
Unless pollsters are wrong again this election will give the conservatives the number they need to get not only brexit done, but the next five years of going it alone as an independent nation including the negotiations on all trade agreements world wide.
This could be the biggest election in UK history - shaping the country for generations.
they could call a confidence motion in themselves (but you could have the farcical situation where the government is voting that they have no confidence in themselves and the opposition say they have confidence and again they cant force the issue) - this would run the risk of a GNU being formed in the 2 week window should the government loose... it would be a gamble as it could ultimately see a peoples vote rejecting the boris deal
Still if other options are exhausted they could try it
Similarly if they resign (and im not sure they can) it would give somebody 2 weeks to show they have the confidence of the house and open up a peoples vote GNU opportunity (if they could get their shit together and that's a big if)
i think the biggest danger in that is Farrage etc saying you gave corbyn or remoaners (because lets face it they are different things) a chance to ruin brexit and it would be a very difficult balancing act to defend against that should (even in a short term) a GNU type arrangement form
I think you just get Mogg sating emergency statement every day and tomorrow will be a vote under the fixed term parliament act until the opposition cave in (which I think ultimately they would have to)
VoNC by the Tories in themselves is the only way this can end I think.
Will be very interesting then to see if Labour's Corbyn only stance is a bluff, and suddenly a Harman and Swinson GNU is formed. Possible, but difficult.
Don't think any of them can get an election bill of any form passed.
Will be very interesting then to see if Labour's Corbyn only stance is a bluff, and suddenly a Harman and Swinson GNU is formed. Possible, but difficult.
Don't think any of them can get an election bill of any form passed.
I'm not arguing he's incompetent; just that he's a fairly middling politician with a ruthless ambition supported by a public school boy network in politics and in the media. Couple that with his innate class privilege that leads most people in this country to go weak at the knees when they hear a voice like his, and you come to understand his career.
Johnson's been two seconds from a scandal throughout his time in journalism and in politics. It seems to me unlikely he would have survived those, let alone the many incompetent things he did do as mayor of London, if he was not the epitome of what Britain's have been conditioned to accept as the ruling class.
equally what % of the overall EU vote do they have
My understanding is that around 400 million people were eligable to vote in the 2019 EU election ... and overall around 200 million did
Brexit party got around 5.25 million votes - or about 2.6%
Thats not too far off what UKIP scored in the 2017 general election (1.6%) so Im not so sure that the EU should necessarily listen as much as the UK did?
This could be true if UKIP or BP did anythng other than turn up on the odd occasion to have a rant. UKIP have never done anything constructive. Farage a couple of years ago gets on a fishing boat but doesn't attend more than one meeting in the EU about fishing out of 41. It's a con.
Farage will be severely upset his paycheque will stop next year. It's so easy to criticise when you've got no positive input like Farage, he's a parasite living off xenophobia and hatred with the British media stoking the fire.
And for the thousandth time the EU is not only about trade and never has been.
hummmm - this impending election / referendum is going to be fun isnt it...
I for one cant wait for the influx of Russian Bots mind controlling the masses
If no election today then that must have a good chance of passing tomorrow (if it is pretty much identical) and would only need a simple majority
The fun and games will be any amendments (though I assume the government would try to pull the bill if any amendments were attached?)
hummmm - this impending election / referendum is going to be fun isnt it...
I for one cant wait for the influx of Russian Bots mind controlling the masses
The leavers spent a good month saying that Boris won't send it and he obviously has a plan (i think Gove and Francois believed this), now his "no ifs no buts" promise has become ....well he only meant if parliament let him.
perhaps the election vote could go through today?
This is true of course, but don't be surprised if any region of any electorate that is ignored as an irrelevance, grows and starts to become more influential and causes a greater problem. It's also not as if euroscepticism is specific to the UK, since 1994 it's been increasing across the EU.
If the EU were always genuine in wanting the UK to be a continued member, then a decade ago there should have been talks about how the issues that were being identified by a large portion of the voting UK populace could be assuaged. This isn't just the case with the EU of course. If I had a group of 27 friends and one of them were a vegan; constantly voting by simple majority to go to a steakhouse every week that had no vegan options, shouldn't cause any surprise when that vegan friend decides he doesn't want to be friends anymore.
The EU aren't only about trade, but if one of the countries in it wanted to head in that direction and were ignored, then it would be naive in the extreme to assume that said country wouldn't get more and more disenfranchised. If the EU weren't so dogmatic and were willing to discuss and address the concerns of the populace of a key member state, then it's likely that state would be engaged and positive.
Again the aforementioned vegan analogy applies - what would be the harm in going to a restaurant that might not be perfect for everyone, but was inclusive of everyone. With the EU I find their making the good the enemy of the perfect is where many problems occur.
If I were the EU I'd have been talking to successful UK PM's over the last decade to find solutions to this increase in euroscepticism. In terms of Farage he's merely a symptom that could be cured by addressing the root issues.
Why the big struggle over whether the election is 12th December or 9th December? Surely a few days wont matter in the scheme of things.
Perhaps the EU like going out without the vegan constantly moaning and telling them that they shouldnt be doing XYZ and perhaps they are sick of the vegan vetoing the steakhouse... in short perhaps in the long run a few of them are happy for us to binge away on tofu whilst our american buddy chomps down on his cholrinated KFC at home and they get to have a nice steak with a glass of wine and enjoy a collaborative conversation without the likes of farrage calling them names over dinner
So Boris or Corbyn will be gone before next year.
Which would be absolutely fair enough... But in that scenario it's the group that hasn't adapted to include the vegan friend; rather than the group expecting the vegan should just shut up and eat meat.
When Corbyn loses the election he’ll be be gone. Probably why he doesn’t want one.
I dunno... longer term yeah I think so but perhaps not immediately
I could see momentum ensuring he stays long enough to try to smear / deselect any Blairite who might dare to try and make the party electable.
He might try to fall on his sword... but given his general level of competence I suspect he would miss
Fecking walking to election booths in cold, wet weather. Hope they don't pass the bill for that reason.
The government wants the 12th because the 9th is a NATO summit and i guess that has a by-product of making him look statesmanlike. I think the rest want the 9th as the sooner the better considering weather etc.
A winter election to decide Brexit really is just the worst idea though.
I think it's about whether its an amendable bill or not. If the Lib Dems and SNP can get an amendable bill, maybe they can amend it to give votes to 16-18's and EU immigrants living in the UK, or some such. Haven't been seen any confirmation on this though. Another factor, which I don't quite grasp, is that the Libs see those 3 days making all the difference in terms of whether the WAB can be passed in time or not. Would like to see that clarified.
But was the UK wanting to head in a different direction? They really want to break all the agreements with regards co-operation on crime, science, defence, research , education . Does even a small percentage of the British electorate understand the EU. Do they really believe the Uk will be a successful nation on its own or know how trade agreements and trading works.
The coverage in the British media is diabolically bad and that's just since the referendum, the standard of reporting is abysmal. Forget the bias just look at the incompetence.
The BP may have 29 seats but that's well under 50% and in the EU parliament combined seats of the various political factions unite together from all the countries. The BP are in no alliance with anyone. The LibDems have 16 and even the Greens have 7 seats.
The UK have had as much power and influence in the EU as any other country with the exception of Germany because they are a bigger country. The myth that the UK are pushed around is beyond a joke.
As I said Farage knows he appeals to the xenophobes and feeds off it. He lies all the time , it's the only way he can survive. People unfortunately are gullible enough to believe him.
Are we really that wimpy? I'd suggest all elections on the 1st January except it would disenfranchise many who are disabled, geriatric or Scottish.Fecking walking to election booths in cold, wet weather. Hope they don't pass the bill for that reason.
Monday vs Thursday... it does seem such a small thing to be arguing about in the grand scheme of things - but I do believe the bill will be amendable if its brought forward and even if the opposition parties agree not to formally propose amendments i guess there is nothing to stop back benchers?
or requesting a postal vote?Fecking walking to election booths in cold, wet weather. Hope they don't pass the bill for that reason.
BBC News just said the 9th was about student votes, and amending to allow 16 year olds to vote. Also said Govt. will present its own one line bill tomorrow--but didn't explain how that would differ from the LibDem's one.
1. swinson said they wont do this even though they would like to (but of course a back bencher could add this in)
2. They have said it will be almost identical to the opposition option... that almost might be key?
Im not certain but if the government introduce a bill and lets say a referendum amendment is chosen can the government pull the bill?
But if it was an opposition bill the government wouldnt have that option?
Im not sure but that would make some sense
Fecking walking to election booths in cold, wet weather. Hope they don't pass the bill for that reason.
Cold, wet weather in the UK? Always a first for everything.
Above 15° suppose it would be too hot.