Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
711 said:
I'd say the reverse, being PM is the thing he cares about. He was as much Remain as Brexit at one time, but plumped for Brexit as he thought it would get him the backing of the Tory membership against other contenders who were likely to be Remain. Then when May won and pledged Brexit herself he went hard Brexit for the same reason, and to be fair it's worked, he's got what he wanted.

edit: what Pex said.
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Really, he's an idiot.

If he had supported Cameron and the remain campaign, he could have been PM just as soon and people would still like him.

He could have done a deal with Cameron, "I'll back remain if you agree to retire at the next election."

Cameron/Johnson vs Corbyn, The Tories would be popular and win majorities for multiple parliaments.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
If there's no deal I don't see why the EU have to agree to it. The Uk will break the GFA, renegue on its obligations and put its international status down the drain .
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We remain a part of the EU untill the agreed exit date unless both parties agree otherwise

Anything unilateral would be a breech of international treaties and as such illegal / actionable ) sanctionable
 
A particular favourite of mine regarding Minford:


The U.K. automotive industry employs 856,000 people and accounts for 12% of U.K. exports.

Much of the blind faith that Brexit will not destroy manufacturing industries is based on the thinking of economist Patrick Minford. However, in 2012 he told a parliamentary committee that the U.K. leaving the European Union would result in the automotive sector suffering a “big transitional loss.” He claimed that there would be more “gainers than losers” because cheaper imported cars would flood into the U.K. He agreed this would all but destroy U.K. car manufacturing.

Minford is professor of economics at Cardiff Business School, a former advisor to Margaret Thatcher and supporter of the U.K. poll tax introduced in 1989 and which led to riots in 1990.


Bearing in mind the UK's biggest exports to both the USA and China are cars.

 
sun_tzu said:
We remain a part of the EU untill the agreed exit date unless both parties agree otherwise

Anything unilateral would be a breech of international treaties and as such illegal / actionable ) sanctionable
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Yes but if the UK break the GFA which is also an international treaty presumably they're not worried.
 
dogrob said:
That's what I want I still dont know what will be needed to live and work in Germany and am basically sick, tired and fed up of the whole thing.
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I think the whole of the rest of Europe want the whole thing over with. It's only the UK clinging on. Johnson's off to see Macron and Merkel to tell them that he will commit suicide if the EU don't drop the backstop.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Why doesn't the UK leave now? No-one's stopping them. Please get on with it.
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What and spoil all the intrigue leading up to and including Halloween?

Will Boris call HM at Balmoral at the dead of night to tell her he wants to prorogue parliament (bet she will enjoy that)?
Will Bercow lose his head and/or be sent to the tower?
Will Corbyn stand on the steps of No.10 for a photograph of him becoming the temporary first Marxist PM?
Will Dominic Grieve go off into the Remainer wilderness, shouting and screaming and wearing sack-clothe and ashes, muttering "I'll be back"?
Will the new Lib-Dem leader say "sorry I didn't realise what sort of job this was" and then retire to the backbenches to spend more time with her family?
Will Caroline Lucas suggest a government of national unity made up entirely of Ken Dodd's Diddy-men, Mick the Marmaliser as Chancellor (after all things could get a bit sticky economically speaking)?
Will the Ghosts of Parliaments past, Guy Fawkes and all, rise on Halloween?

You want to miss all that Paul, by declaring Brexit now... spoilsport!
 
Paul the Wolf said:
A particular favourite of mine regarding Minford:


The U.K. automotive industry employs 856,000 people and accounts for 12% of U.K. exports.

Much of the blind faith that Brexit will not destroy manufacturing industries is based on the thinking of economist Patrick Minford. However, in 2012 he told a parliamentary committee that the U.K. leaving the European Union would result in the automotive sector suffering a “big transitional loss.” He claimed that there would be more “gainers than losers” because cheaper imported cars would flood into the U.K. He agreed this would all but destroy U.K. car manufacturing.

Minford is professor of economics at Cardiff Business School, a former advisor to Margaret Thatcher and supporter of the U.K. poll tax introduced in 1989 and which led to riots in 1990.


Bearing in mind the UK's biggest exports to both the USA and China are cars.
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Actually its 3rd

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/exporting-to-the-usa

But again it all depends on where you read it and that is the problem.

It's very hard to find real facts and figures, I have many problems cutting through the crap that is out there. Like they actually released the wto tariffs for the UK, but I can't find it now.

The main problem is the supply chain, what if we go cut tariffs on imports and buy parts directly from source eg: China what would be the downside? In your opinion?
 
Maticmaker said:
What and spoil all the intrigue leading up to and including Halloween?

Will Boris call HM at Balmoral at the dead of night to tell her he wants to prorogue parliament (bet she will enjoy that)?
Will Bercow lose his head and/or be sent to the tower?
Will Corbyn stand on the steps of No.10 for a photograph of him becoming the temporary first Marxist PM?
Will Dominic Grieve go off into the Remainer wilderness, shouting and screaming and wearing sack-clothe and ashes, muttering "I'll be back"?
Will the new Lib-Dem leader say "sorry I didn't realise what sort of job this was" and then retire to the backbenches to spend more time with her family?
Will Caroline Lucas suggest a government of national unity made up entirely of Ken Dodd's Diddy-men, Mick the Marmaliser as Chancellor (after all things could get a bit sticky economically speaking)?
Will the Ghosts of Parliaments past, Guy Fawkes and all, rise on Halloween?

You want to miss all that Paul, by declaring Brexit now... spoilsport!
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We've had three years of going round in circles, either the UK give up the idea or get on with it , it's like watching the same episode over and over again.
 
sullydnl said:
Tbf at least in his case it actually makes sense given he's deliberately steering towards a hard brexit. Why wouldn't he eat up the remaining time by pretending it is the EU's fault?
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Let's face it blaming the eu... And remoaner parliament is basically his general election campaign

Sadly I think it's far more effective than sitting on the fence and promising unicorns

Daft as it sounds he's doing the right thing (from his / Cummings perspective and he's doing it well)
 
M16Red said:
Actually its 3rd

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/exporting-to-the-usa

But again it all depends on where you read it and that is the problem.

It's very hard to find real facts and figures, I have many problems cutting through the crap that is out there. Like they actually released the wto tariffs for the UK, but I can't find it now.

The main problem is the supply chain, what if we go cut tariffs on imports and buy parts directly from source eg: China what would be the downside? In your opinion?
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I quite like this site for facts and figures: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/deu/

The point with tariffs, which imo is not the biggest problem, is that you lose a degree of control where for the most part you have to have the same tariffs for everyone and your tariff schedule and quotas has to be agreed by other members of the WTO and of course it's the importer and subsequently the consumer who pays the tariffs. If you reduce tariffs to zero or low for everyone the market is going to be flooded with imports and UK manufacturing will suffer.
You also have to have the infrastructure

Being protectionist is true but you can't be more protectionist than Trump who will do anything to protect the USA, unfortunately he's making a right mess of it and starting a trade war which will lead to economic downturns for all,whereas UK seem to want to be like Trump.

The biggest problem will be the supply chain and whether the UK like it or not , it is an island next to the European mainland and relies on close co-operation with its neighbours and speed of supply. Also the speed of documentation and have the personnel and infrastructure in place to cope with the massive increase in documentation and checks which will be required. Also bearing in mind that even if the UK wave everything through unchecked the EU won't do so going back the other way.
Additionally most of the traffic with the continent, lorries , drivers etc are nearly all European plus the number of licences that will be able granted to UK businesses traveling to the continent will be severely limited.
Really don't see how the UK copes with all these problems if and when they become a "third country".
 
Sassy Colin said:
Really, he's an idiot.

If he had supported Cameron and the remain campaign, he could have been PM just as soon and people would still like him.

He could have done a deal with Cameron, "I'll back remain if you agree to retire at the next election."

Cameron/Johnson vs Corbyn, The Tories would be popular and win majorities for multiple parliaments.
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20/20 hindsight on behalf of Cameron there. The reality is that the only reason Cameron offered the referendum was to secure his own position. He was never going to make that deal with Boris when it would have negated his entire motivation behind offering the referendum in the first place.
 
Those bloody Germans in Lidl dictating eh. We won the war you know. You pay the charges and furthermore we demand that you have Union Jack stickers on every single product. Rule Britannia!
 
Sassy Colin said:
Really, he's an idiot.

If he had supported Cameron and the remain campaign, he could have been PM just as soon and people would still like him.

He could have done a deal with Cameron, "I'll back remain if you agree to retire at the next election."

Cameron/Johnson vs Corbyn, The Tories would be popular and win majorities for multiple parliaments.
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He wouldn't have had a natural base of popularity among the membership though - Brexiteer Tories wouldn't have wanted him because he was a Remainer, and liberal Cameron-type Tories would've still seen him as too ridiculous a choice to be PM, preferring Osborne instead. Boris knew his only means of getting in was going to be by appealing to the party's hard-right.
 
Cheesy said:
He wouldn't have had a natural base of popularity among the membership though - Brexiteer Tories wouldn't have wanted him because he was a Remainer, and liberal Cameron-type Tories would've still seen him as too ridiculous a choice to be PM, preferring Osborne instead. Boris knew his only means of getting in was going to be by appealing to the party's hard-right.
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Are you suggesting that he is an opportunist....
Anyone would have thought that he was un-decided about Brexit until the last moment...
I wonder what made his mind up.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
I quite like this site for facts and figures: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/deu/

The point with tariffs, which imo is not the biggest problem, is that you lose a degree of control where for the most part you have to have the same tariffs for everyone and your tariff schedule and quotas has to be agreed by other members of the WTO and of course it's the importer and subsequently the consumer who pays the tariffs. If you reduce tariffs to zero or low for everyone the market is going to be flooded with imports and UK manufacturing will suffer.
You also have to have the infrastructure

Being protectionist is true but you can't be more protectionist than Trump who will do anything to protect the USA, unfortunately he's making a right mess of it and starting a trade war which will lead to economic downturns for all,whereas UK seem to want to be like Trump.

The biggest problem will be the supply chain and whether the UK like it or not , it is an island next to the European mainland and relies on close co-operation with its neighbours and speed of supply. Also the speed of documentation and have the personnel and infrastructure in place to cope with the massive increase in documentation and checks which will be required. Also bearing in mind that even if the UK wave everything through unchecked the EU won't do so going back the other way.
Additionally most of the traffic with the continent, lorries , drivers etc are nearly all European plus the number of licences that will be able granted to UK businesses traveling to the continent will be severely limited.
Really don't see how the UK copes with all these problems if and when they become a "third country".
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But that the point right, we can have the options to create tariff agreements. Where do you think these imports come from in the first place? China? then a third party sells them to us?
nickm said:




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All because we're classed as a third country to the EU. The EU are not the only market in the world. If you went to Sainsbury's and said we're going to make you pay extra for Chilean wine from our EU DC, they'd turn around a say I'll just buy it from flipping Chile.

I've worked in logistics for years in fact there isn't a firm in the UK I've not done work for and like I said above the paperwork is digital and done before leaving.

But thanks for the post, I'm not on twater. I can get peoples opinions on sky news.

First rule of business it's just business. if Lidl raised there prices - then they'll lose customers because they're model is based on cheap EU imports from the likes of Germany and as I said before Under WTO they is no tariff on food / produce import so anything they add is an export tariff from the EU.
 
Jamie Oliver blames restaurant collapse on Brexit - moaning it ruined his 40th (Mirror)

Every cloud has a silver lining!
 
Maticmaker said:
Jamie Oliver blames restaurant collapse on Brexit - moaning it ruined his 40th (Mirror)

Every cloud has a silver lining!
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If there's a second referendum a smart Leave campaign would print this on massive billboards across the country. Would be a landslide.
 
M16Red said:
But that the point right, we can have the options to create tariff agreements. Where do you think these imports come from in the first place? China? then a third party sells them to us?


All because we're classed as a third country to the EU. The EU are not the only market in the world. If you went to Sainsbury's and said we're going to make you pay extra for Chilean wine from our EU DC, they'd turn around a say I'll just buy it from flipping Chile.

I've worked in logistics for years in fact there isn't a firm in the UK I've not done work for and like I said above the paperwork is digital and done before leaving.

But thanks for the post, I'm not on twater. I can get peoples opinions on sky news.

First rule of business it's just business. if Lidl raised there prices - then they'll lose customers because they're model is based on cheap EU imports from the likes of Germany and as I said before Under WTO they is no tariff on food / produce import so anything they add is an export tariff from the EU.
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You talk as if the EU are stopping the UK trading with the rest of the world which is the "we're becoming global Britain". It's Tory /Brexit rubbish which has conned the British people. The Uk are already trading with the USA and China and many other countries. The Uk's biggest customer is the USA now. If Minford wants to destroy the British manufacturing industry what are you going to sell to them. The Uk have got to get agreements on the tariffs first

Having quick supply chains you will not get from China or from the USA nor will you get fresh food nor will you have the markets in Europe which as Minford incorrectly states is that Europe needs the UK more than the other way round, it's total rubbish, yes the whole of the EU27 (27 countries ship more to one country (UK) than the one country ships to the 27, hardly surprising really but as individual countries, which they are, no. The EU27 still have each other to trade with plus all the trade agreements they have with non-EU countries. The UK will have zero agreements if they leave with no deal.

And no all documents and checks are not made on line plus the EU are not going to let exports from the UK pass without checks especially if they lower their standards and regulations.

By the way I've run an international trading company for 30 years in the UK and you never worked for me.
 
M16Red said:
This is so much bull, my cousin works in imports and exports he told me that it will be fine as the goods are cleared before leaving - "do you think a business would fill a container full of oranges, that could sit on a road and go to waste?" He did also say that we've been getting mugged off years.

I work in services (IT) and we had our meeting on Brexit last year that covered exports and importing of services under WTO and there are the same tariffs on WTO and EU. In fact we spoke about the 0% tariff on importing services from the US and they said It wouldn't change at all. I asked twice... As I a project on with a company in the US.
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I may be missing something but your last sentence has nothing to do with the UK-EU relationship if you are talking about a company in the US.
 
M16Red said:
This is so much bull, my cousin works in imports and exports he told me that it will be fine as the goods are cleared before leaving - "do you think a business would fill a container full of oranges, that could sit on a road and go to waste?" He did also say that we've been getting mugged off years.

I work in services (IT) and we had our meeting on Brexit last year that covered exports and importing of services under WTO and there are the same tariffs on WTO and EU. In fact we spoke about the 0% tariff on importing services from the US and they said It wouldn't change at all. I asked twice... As I a project on with a company in the US.
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US?
 
Paul the Wolf said:
You talk as if the EU are stopping the UK trading with the rest of the world which is the "we're becoming global Britain". It's Tory /Brexit rubbish which has conned the British people. The Uk are already trading with the USA and China and many other countries. The Uk's biggest customer is the USA now. If Minford wants to destroy the British manufacturing industry what are you going to sell to them. The Uk have got to get agreements on the tariffs first

Having quick supply chains you will not get from China or from the USA nor will you get fresh food nor will you have the markets in Europe which as Minford incorrectly states is that Europe needs the UK more than the other way round, it's total rubbish, yes the whole of the EU27 (27 countries ship more to one country (UK) than the one country ships to the 27, hardly surprising really but as individual countries, which they are, no. The EU27 still have each other to trade with plus all the trade agreements they have with non-EU countries. The UK will have zero agreements if they leave with no deal.

And no all documents and checks are not made on line plus the EU are not going to let exports from the UK pass without checks especially if they lower their standards and regulations.

By the way I've run an international trading company for 30 years in the UK and you never worked for me.
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Do you know my name? Or who I work for... anyway..

Yes I understand about the standards body of the European Union, is it a type of fallacy because EU DCs have been trading lower class imports for years - most products electrical come from China, we're just paying a middle person?

Would we need trade deals right out of the gate?

This is from the BBC
95c56ff6-bd7b-4ec6-a3a2-f8f94004da38

If they are being imported, would we not set the quality framework?

If we agree to keep our standards what would be the case for the EU to check every container in Calais? Because it would need to be done on the EU side of the channel as we wouldn't be the enforcer of this rule.

As your an international businessman you will know that losing a market (3rd biggest) is not good business - money talks.
 
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