2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

I have a feeling Trump will win as he has always exceeded polling expectations at the election and given this is such a tight race, Harris would need a significant lead in polls to win - especially in the swing states, her lead is fractional at best. I can see her comfortably winning the popular vote but Trump winning the election with the swing states narrowly going to him.
 
padzilla said:
I have a feeling Trump will win as he has always exceeded polling expectations at the election and given this is such a tight race, Harris would need a significant lead in polls to win - especially in the swing states, her lead is fractional at best. I can see her comfortably winning the popular vote but Trump winning the election with the swing states narrowly going to him.
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I agree in that Trump tends to outperform the polls, so Harris will need about a 4 point national polling average lead to pull off a win in November.
 
It's crazy how much will come down to 'shy' voters: the usual Trump ones who don't admit it to pollsters and then the young vote for Harris that don't do polls at all.

It must be my media bubble, but all the actual events out there domestically seem to going for Harris, and yet Trump keeps having these polls where he wins, despite becoming a weaker candidate by the week. His rally in Philly was practically empty. Project 2025 is one of the least popular things ever polled. Vance is among the least popular politicians ever polled.

Something doesn't add up to me. But my wife probably correctly points out: that something is misogyny and racism among the electorate.
 
Beachryan said:
It's crazy how much will come down to 'shy' voters: the usual Trump ones who don't admit it to pollsters and then the young vote for Harris that don't do polls at all.

It must be my media bubble, but all the actual events out there domestically seem to going for Harris, and yet Trump keeps having these polls where he wins, despite becoming a weaker candidate by the week. His rally in Philly was practically empty. Project 2025 is one of the least popular things ever polled. Vance is among the least popular politicians ever polled.

Something doesn't add up to me. But my wife probably correctly points out: that something is misogyny and racism among the electorate.
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Trump votes rarely changes. Those rallys are just to feed his ego and wallet. He can do no rally or twice a day it wont change much.

He has been a one term president most of his voters would know what they're voting for rally or no rally. I wouldnt take an empty rally as barometer of anything.

If this is a normal election an empty rally would be somewhere around 20% on polls. But Trump is still neck to neck
 
Tom Van Persie said:
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It is utterly insane to me that this kind of information is available prior to an election. To me it’s a big red warning light. The idea that a populace can know how many ballots are in the hands of voters if a certain colour is nuts.

Sure, they could all switch who they vote for, but this info out in the public domain seems so weird.
 
Raoul said:
Good watch. Seems the libs have found their Ben Shapiro.
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It’s a funny watch, I didn’t skip lots of it. Very funny that the sturdy free speech Americans all raise a red flag the moment they hear something they don’t like. Just the word abortion or a negative about Trump saw six flags get waved. Snowflakey twats.

It was odd to feel annoyed that he was fighting back with the same examples. Then I realised he was using facts and examples that never got addressed by crazy people running on Fox News vibes for the most part.

The big unit in the suit, the Afghan withdrawal lady, and the young woman who had all of the chat and none of the answers on Abortion/IUD conversation were frustrating highlights.

These people really do live an alternative reality.
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
It is utterly insane to me that this kind of information is available prior to an election. To me it’s a big red warning light. The idea that a populace can know how many ballots are in the hands of voters if a certain colour is nuts.

Sure, they could all switch who they vote for, but this info out in the public domain seems so weird.
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It’s registration, not actual voting choice (although that tracks 95% anyway)

Also that’s the number of requests, the actual amount of ballots being returned is lower than that.
 
roseguy64 said:
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That will never not freak me out a little. Do other countries do that?

We’ve got a bunch of knuckle dragging fascists here that will sing ‘I’m England till I die’ to the tune of a bible song. But it seems so weird to just shout your countries name over and over. Do Americans think it’s weird?

As Chris Rock winced and said “Got a little German on it, don’t ya think?”
 
padzilla said:
I have a feeling Trump will win as he has always exceeded polling expectations at the election and given this is such a tight race, Harris would need a significant lead in polls to win - especially in the swing states, her lead is fractional at best. I can see her comfortably winning the popular vote but Trump winning the election with the swing states narrowly going to him.
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I'll go ahead and predict a Harris landslide.
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
That will never not freak me out a little. Do other countries do that?

We’ve got a bunch of knuckle dragging fascists here that will sing ‘I’m England till I die’ to the tune of a bible song. But it seems so weird to just shout your countries name over and over. Do Americans think it’s weird?

As Chris Rock winced and said “Got a little German on it, don’t ya think?”
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No other country does this, and Americans will do it for anything. I've heard it in UFC fights with one, two or no American fighters.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
‘Why is the election so close?’

Answer:

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I think it's less Hawk Tuah being there and more the fact that five of the top 10 are conservative, three of them overtly politically conservative. How far do you need to go down the list to find an overtly liberal one? 18, Jon Stewart.

The messaging on the right is far more pervasive and effective than the left. Democrats seem basically content to settle for "If you are not a fecking idiot, you'll vote for us".
 
B20 said:
I think it's less Hawk Tuah being there and more the fact that five of the top 10 are conservative, three of them overtly politically conservative. How far do you need to go down the list to find an overtly liberal one? 18, Jon Stewart.

The messaging on the right is far more pervasive and effective than the left. Democrats seem basically content to settle for "If you are not a fecking idiot, you'll vote for us".
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Mike Smalling said:
The top three is much more worrying than Talk Tuah being 4th.
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Definitely this
 
Going to take a wild guess and say that the Hawk Tuah podcast is not the 4th most popular podcast in America.
 
padzilla said:
I have a feeling Trump will win as he has always exceeded polling expectations at the election and given this is such a tight race, Harris would need a significant lead in polls to win - especially in the swing states, her lead is fractional at best. I can see her comfortably winning the popular vote but Trump winning the election with the swing states narrowly going to him.
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That is my fear too, but it has been said that the pollsters have made accomodations for this in 2024.

It is very much in their interest to do so as they cant afford to miss again. It further hurts their credibility.

Some even think they are weighting polls to far in the favour of Trump. We will see.
 
Tom Van Persie said:
Poll was done before the Robinson scandal.

B rated pollster had it +3 Trump before the news.

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Was driving around rural NC on Monday and there was a stark change in the yard sign game. Only 1-2 Trump signs, no Robinson, and plenty of Harris/Walz. Here’s the thing, while there were no Trump/Robinson there were plenty of signs for the GOP congressman ( not at same houses as H/W), so it’s not like they all moved.
 
WI_Red said:
Was driving around rural NC on Monday and there was a stark change in the yard sign game. Only 1-2 Trump signs, no Robinson, and plenty of Harris/Walz. Here’s the thing, while there were no Trump/Robinson there were plenty of signs for the GOP congressman ( not at same houses as H/W), so it’s not like they all moved.
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Im on NextDoor for the town where my second home is, Pinehurst NC.

There are people on there who still keen to vote for Robinson. He could be found of guilty of rape, murder and terrorism and people would still vote for him over a candidate with a D after their name.
 
gaffs said:
Im on NextDoor for the town where my second home is, Pinehurst NC.

There are people on there who still keen to vote for Robinson. He could be found of guilty of rape, murder and terrorism and people would still vote for him over a candidate with a D after their name.
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That applies everywhere TBH, there are some people who will never, ever, vote for a Democrat, and the reverse is also true
 
Red in STL said:
That applies everywhere TBH, there are some people who will never, ever, vote for a Democrat, and the reverse is also true
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Agree, its is not thing not to vote for a Democrat, but another thing altogether voting for a man who had talked about f'ing his wifes sister, peeping into girls bathrooms and wanting to bring back slavery so he could "own one".
 
Raoul said:
Neither are the best for their respective parties, but they both had enough clout in their respective party apparatuses to make sure they are the candidate. In Trump’s case, he rules the Republican Party with an iron grip. In Harris’ case, she quickly moved to secure delegates on a zoom call the day after Biden dropped out, which prevented any potential challengers from participating.
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And probably the option that was the least disruptive and an appearance of chaos was the last thing the Dem's needed.
 
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