2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
For reference, what did his model say about 2020?
He was still with FiveThirtyEight back then. Biden had an 89% chance of winning.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2020-presidential-election-forecast/
Famously, Clinton had a 60% chance on election day.
AZ seems to be slipping away for the Dems, which will probably allow Trump to spend more of his time and money in the rust belt.
Same model, I'm pretty sure (with tweaks).
She was at 71.4% People seem to think it was scandalous that someone with a 28.6 chance could be successful.
Although probably not the same FiveThirtyEight model as now, since the new guy who runs it seems to have a different philosophy/approach on how the model should work.
Just looking at it now, and 538's final prediction had Florida at 55.1% chance of going to Hillary. Seems a bit silly now, but obviously much has happened in eight years.
FL was a bonafide swing state before Trump showed up, so with the right candidate, the Dems could've won it. Now, under Trump, its next to impossible since the three key groups necessary to win the state are all in his back pocket.
Yeah, I seem to remember there was some shenanigans there in 2000.
Trump - "the economy is a mess. We are a failing nation and a third world country. People can't afford to buy bacon".
Also Trump - "Buy this $100k Gold Trump Watch".
That means there was a 40% chance that the other candidate wins, which is a pretty high probability. Clinton was the favorite, but 60-40 means that she was the slight favorite, not the Chicago Bulls of 1996 vs. my kids type of advantage.
And, on a given day, favorites can lose.
Do any of his supporters buy this trash ?
It wasn't too long ago that Andrew Gillum nearly beat Ron DeSantis in the gubernatorial race.
Not sure where he is now!?!?!
FL might be less red than we make of it. The average lead of Trump is under 4%. Not nothing, especially in the old standards of Florida, but it’s not like in 2022.It wasn't too long ago that Andrew Gillum nearly beat Ron DeSantis in the gubernatorial race.
Not sure where he is now!?!?!
Someone will!
I have a watch business myself. Talked about in the the General ... https://www.redcafe.net/threads/watches.356478/post-32401848
$100k is insanity. A full gold AP, Rolex or Patek Philippe would be around half that price.
Needless to say, i won't be stocking Trump watches!
These guys have 77% chance for Trump.
Definitely, and also I think Silver just straight up took his
It wasn't too long ago that Andrew Gillum nearly beat Ron DeSantis in the gubernatorial race.
Not sure where he is now!?!?!
Abortion is on the ballot in Florida this year too.
If Kamala wants to make a play, then there needs to be a really positive response to the current Hurricane.
She should also talk to Floridians about the environment and how it is impacting insurance prices in Florida. People are getting crushed there and still voting for a climate denier who thinks rising tides are a positive thing!
Yet she is going to the border today!
Why is she not doing better in AZ? I thought there was a big population move there from California? As well as there being a large Hispanic community?
Can we talk about Tim Walz?
Very likable guy, but apart from a couple of speeches to union workers and him tinkering with his air filter, I have not seen him anywhere since the DNC. I have seen Josh Shapiro more on TV since than Walz. And i have seen 10x more of Vance than Walz, even though Vance shoots himself in the D every time he speaks!
Is he moving the needle at all?
If she loses PA, then not picking Shapiro will be one of the reasons as to why. As has been pointed out, AZ seems to be slipping away and she could have picked a goddamn Astronaut from Arizona!!!
Very likable guy, but apart from a couple of speeches to union workers and him tinkering with his air filter, I have not seen him anywhere since the DNC. I have seen Josh Shapiro more on TV since than Walz. And i have seen 10x more of Vance than Walz, even though Vance shoots himself in the D every time he speaks!
Is he moving the needle at all?
If she loses PA, then not picking Shapiro will be one of the reasons as to why. As has been pointed out, AZ seems to be slipping away and she could have picked a goddamn Astronaut from Arizona!!!
Seems like it
Kamala is definitely turning the tables and what seemed a Trump landslide with Biden, he seems less and less favourite and more a toss up. And the way is trending, in 1 month we might have kamala as favourite
Part of it is by design, as in, you never want your VP candidate in the news all the time. If they are, it’s either because they’ve said something controversial or because they are so competent that they’re outperforming the person who selected them. Nice and slightly anonymous is the ideal combination. Also, he’s probably been preparing for the VP debate next week, so both him and Vance aren’t likely to be doing much media between now and the debate.
I honestly still think that she made a good choice.
Besides, while I’m not sure about GA, I find her numbers in AZ surprising given where the state has been in recent years. If you push me against the wall, I would pick her to win there but lose in GA.
Valuetainment.Not to be taken seriously. The owner of the YouTube channel is Patrick Bet David, who is a huge Trump supporter.
People always get testy after their credit is declined.
Vance has been everywhere and has just again spoken out against the media for exposing his lies about the Haitians migrants stoey and said 'People should be allowed to speak their truth and not be challenged for speaking it'He's off his fecking head.
He's off his fecking head.
Not on US msm tv he hasn’t. He did a round of interviews to push back against criticisms about Springfield a while back, but has since not been on as much.
This might be a factor too:
https://abcnews.go.com/538/efforts-elect-republican-women-stalled-2024-primaries/story?id=114064144
Efforts to elect more Republican women stalled in the 2024 primaries
“ Our analysis of this data shows that the overall share of women running is down, likely due to both fewer GOP women running this cycle and less institutional support, which is a sharp departure from 2020 and 2022, when the GOP made some gains in this respect. On the whole, Democratic women's share of their party nominees is up from 2022, and many of these candidates are in a good position to win in November.“https://abcnews.go.com/538/efforts-elect-republican-women-stalled-2024-primaries/story?id=114064144
He's been at all of Trump's rallies though and he's been on a few news channels this last week. Although admittedly he's not been seen as much as he previously was. But even so, he's still managed to dominate news cycles and social media due to his previous comments and general fecktardeness. Of course the dossier stuff has kept him firmly in the news too as has the Nonprofit group representing the Haitian migrants bringing charges against Trump and Vance and the resurfacing of Vance's comments comparing Trump to Hitler and calling himself a never Trumper back in 2020.
He's Trump-Lite and it really does seem as if he's still everywhere all the time.
Body language says everything. He's fuming, he clearly doesn't want to be there and certainly doesn't want to be used as a political pawn like this, hear Putin mentioned all the time and have to listen to the stream of lies coming out of Don's mouth.
He shouldn’t be put in this position, but Trump could be the next president of the United States….
He shouldn’t be put in this position, but Trump could be the next president of the United States….
Exactly, that's the only reason he's doing it. However he knows Trump will feck him over and after Trump's recent comments of Ukraine giving up land, I wonder how Zelensky hasn't publically called Trump out for his lies and then dropped him in front of the worlds media. It really is one of the most uncomfortable things I have ever seen.
These Zelenskyy/Trump clips are quite something.
"It takes two to tango" is quite something to say to the leader of a country that was invaded.
I think it was 70, but one in three is very far from a sure thing. It was close.