2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

Marist:

NC tie
AZ T+1
GA T+1

Field time 19-24/9, mostly before Black Nazi.

NC continues to look the best for Harris this year, although GA doesn’t look bad, 3 A/B pollsters at this time in 2020 had tie, Trump +1/+2. AZ on the other hand, most pollsters had a firm Biden lead there during that period (although final RCP average was only 0.9, actual result 0.3)
 


Someone is about to have a meltdown on truth social?
 
I am doing postcard writing campaigns/parties every weekend until it's no longer feasible. Phone banking, texting, reaching out to voters in all swing states. It ain't over til it's over. I think Harris will win, but we have to keep swinging to make it happen. I hate Trump so much it makes my head hurt.
 
Wing Attack Plan R said:
I am doing postcard writing campaigns/parties every weekend until it's no longer feasible. Phone banking, texting, reaching out to voters in all swing states. It ain't over til it's over. I think Harris will win, but we have to keep swinging to make it happen. I hate Trump so much it makes my head hurt.
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You are doing good work, may Trump lose in November, and we never have to hear from him again!
 
Wing Attack Plan R said:
I am doing postcard writing campaigns/parties every weekend until it's no longer feasible. Phone banking, texting, reaching out to voters in all swing states. It ain't over til it's over. I think Harris will win, but we have to keep swinging to make it happen. I hate Trump so much it makes my head hurt.
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Thank you for your service good Sir!
 
Wing Attack Plan R said:
I am doing postcard writing campaigns/parties every weekend until it's no longer feasible. Phone banking, texting, reaching out to voters in all swing states. It ain't over til it's over. I think Harris will win, but we have to keep swinging to make it happen. I hate Trump so much it makes my head hurt.
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Thank you for what you do.

How is the response from people? And what makes you believe that Harris will win?
 
Wing Attack Plan R said:
I am doing postcard writing campaigns/parties every weekend until it's no longer feasible. Phone banking, texting, reaching out to voters in all swing states. It ain't over til it's over. I think Harris will win, but we have to keep swinging to make it happen. I hate Trump so much it makes my head hurt.
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Nice keep at it appreciate the effort. We are trying here to dump Ted Cruz still at least. My mom and a bunch of friends are leaving for a month long cruise and I made sure they all at least did absentee ballots as they wont be back till after the election. Will take every vote and some luck but maybe!
 
Morty_ said:


Someone is about to have a meltdown on truth social?
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She is good at bating him.

But honestly, her message on the economy is poor.

She really needs to explain with confidence that the Biden administration was handed a shit pile during COVID and have worked for 4 years to get the country back on track. All the indicators are good - inflation down to 2.5%, unemployment low and the stock market booming. Jamie Dimon said it's the best economy he has seen. She can point to build back better and the IRA as big wins.

BUT...

She needs to communicate to people that there is a disconnect as prices are not dropping because companies are not putting their prices down now their costs, which spiked during COVID, have normalised. I mean, why would they?

The bind she is in, is how will she, or anyone else, will get companies to lower the price of food, for example, now they know that the consumer can pay $7 for a pack of bacon.
 
Maybe the most racist tweet ever sent by a GOP Congressman...

GYWaqxNXYAEoFPj


https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/clay-higgins-rips-haitian-immigrants-rcna172738

The Dems needs to be working on reaching out to the 1mil + Haitians in Florida asap.
 
there was a report showing a lot of support for trump among bitcoin holders. mdderation on this will help another demographic to the side of the good guys :)

 
gaffs said:
She is good at bating him.

But honestly, her message on the economy is poor.

She really needs to explain with confidence that the Biden administration was handed a shit pile during COVID and have worked for 4 years to get the country back on track. All the indicators are good - inflation down to 2.5%, unemployment low and the stock market booming. Jamie Dimon said it's the best economy he has seen. She can point to build back better and the IRA as big wins.

BUT...

She needs to communicate to people that there is a disconnect as prices are not dropping because companies are not putting their prices down now their costs, which spiked during COVID, have normalised. I mean, why would they?

The bind she is in, is how will she, or anyone else, will get companies to lower the price of food, for example, now they know that the consumer can pay $7 for a pack of bacon.
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57% of Americans think they were better off 4 years ago.

4 years ago thousands were dying everyday, everything was closed and unemployment stood at 14 millions.

There’s really no point in telling voters their perception of reality is wrong, or educate them on the nuances and complexities of policy making. People are a) really good at compartmentalising painful experiences and b) really bad at changing their minds once confronted with facts that run contrary to their firmly held beliefs.

Run on vibes, keep it ambiguous, attack your opponent, that’s the new norms for winning election.
 
Wing Attack Plan R said:
I am doing postcard writing campaigns/parties every weekend until it's no longer feasible. Phone banking, texting, reaching out to voters in all swing states. It ain't over til it's over. I think Harris will win, but we have to keep swinging to make it happen. I hate Trump so much it makes my head hurt.
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Great work. Our household has written 200 postcards to WI.
 
Wing Attack Plan R said:
I am doing postcard writing campaigns/parties every weekend until it's no longer feasible. Phone banking, texting, reaching out to voters in all swing states. It ain't over til it's over. I think Harris will win, but we have to keep swinging to make it happen. I hate Trump so much it makes my head hurt.
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You are doing amazing work for everyone - America needs Trump to be humiliated at this election, so that hopefully the Republican party starts to step away from crazy and back to mainstream politics.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
57% of Americans think they were better off 4 years ago.

4 years ago thousands were dying everyday, everything was closed and unemployment stood at 14 millions.

There’s really no point in telling voters their perception of reality is wrong, or educate them on the nuances and complexities of policy making. People are a) really good at compartmentalising painful experiences and b) really bad at changing their minds once confronted with facts that run contrary to their firmly held beliefs.

Run on vibes, keep it ambiguous, attack your opponent, that’s the new norms for winning election.
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You are probably right.

They remember the $1.80 gas prices, yet forget the context as to why that was happening, as well as the 1.2m people dead from COVID.

I still think there is a way to level with people. Or maybe that is the job of surrogates like Mark Cuban.
 
gaffs said:
You are probably right.

They remember the $1.80 gas prices, yet forget the context as to why that was happening, as well as the 1.2m people dead from COVID.

I still think there is a way to level with people. Or maybe that is the job of surrogates like Mark Cuban.
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Sure you can level with people you can discuss facts like

New Data Finds Sharper Economic Rebound From Pandemic​

The U.S. economy emerged from the pandemic even more quickly than previously reported, revised data from the federal government shows.

The Commerce Department on Thursday released updated estimates of gross domestic product over the past five years, part of a longstanding annual process to incorporate data that isn’t available in time for the agency’s quarterly releases.

The new estimates show that G.D.P., adjusted for inflation, grew faster in 2021, 2022 and early 2023 than initially believed. The revisions are relatively small in most quarters, but they suggest that the rebound from the pandemic — already among the fastest recoveries on record — was stronger and more consistent than earlier data showed.
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But, just telling people their "feelings" and the "vibes" they are getting are wrong about the economy and their everyday spending power is not going to get the votes needed. Which is why I think Harris is doing the right thing. She is approaching the economy discussions as here is my plan to make things even better. Rather than a "no you are wrong" things are better and your "vibes" are off approach.

I think its the main reason why GOPs usually strongest issues like the economy they don't have the big margin they normally would on economic confidence.
 
Raoul said:
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Should have happened sooner, but hope this can move the needle in Texas, at least.

Montana isn't that expensive campaign in, so can hope for a miracle by Tester regardless.
 
With both Texas and Florida being big and expensive states to campaign it, dems needs to pick one, in my opinion.

Trying to make a play for both is probably a mistake.
 
Morty_ said:
With both Texas and Florida being big and expensive states to campaign it, dems needs to pick one, in my opinion.

Trying to make a play for both is probably a mistake.
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Depends how much money they have really.
 
TwoSheds said:
Depends how much money they have really.
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Harris campaign is sitting on like $300m cash on hand, with donations still coming in, that’s not mentioning outside groups.

The GOP is outspending Brown 3 to 1 in Ohio though, probably will prove a money sink ultimately like Dems with Montana, but it’s a race that needs money as well. If Brown loses because they don’t play defense while trying desperately to save the majority, they might doom any chance of retaking it in 26.
 
B20 said:
I think it's less Hawk Tuah being there and more the fact that five of the top 10 are conservative, three of them overtly politically conservative. How far do you need to go down the list to find an overtly liberal one? 18, Jon Stewart.

The messaging on the right is far more pervasive and effective than the left. Democrats seem basically content to settle for "If you are not a fecking idiot, you'll vote for us".
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All that says is that those on the right like to listen to podcasts and looking for an authority figure to tell them what to do, it doesn't say much about the general population as long as there is no deep demographic breakdown of the listeners.
 
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langster said:
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Some good state and national polls for Harris at the end of the week. This is just one of them.

Nationally, the polls show that she’s up ~3%, on average. She seems ahead in MI, WI by 2-3 and in PA by 1-2 points. In the sunbelt it’s 0-1 points, or (-1) to 1 points.

I find her numbers in FL encouraging: down 3-4 points only. Not saying that she will win FL, but this number shows strength across the board.

With 5 weeks to go, I can’t see Trump as the favorite.
 
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