That's why they have polling averages. The next few polls in AZ will either confirm or push back against the NYT/Siena numbers.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
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That's why they have polling averages. The next few polls in AZ will either confirm or push back against the NYT/Siena numbers.
GA is very much a purple state, so Trump will always have the advantage there. Trump has come out ahead in the past 8 GA polls, so at this point, it would be a big surprise if Harris wins the state.
This is what GA polls have looked like in the month of September.
IIRC in 2020, Raphael Warnock got out a large number of voters for him and thus for Biden, that may not have voted otherwise.
Yes, they definitely benefited last cycle due to people not wanting Hershel Walker to win. Harris appears to be struggling in this regard this time.
Another close senate poll from Texas.
Yep, I know (well, King now). Which is why the whole discussion about "that's a town over here" is funny to me.
Look at the cross tabs.....
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/17/us/elections/times-siena-poll-arizona-toplines.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/09/23/us/elections/times-siena-arizona-toplines.html
More Republicans and more 2020 Trump voters polled in the September poll than the August one.
Ask a different set up people the same questions and you will get a different result.
Which are more accurate? Arguments could be made either way.
The bro vote: Trump and Harris duel over what it means to be a man in America
I mean we have seen variations of this in varying articles. But, it kind of shows why the race is so close really. The article kind of presents some of the specific people as an "untapped voter". But, the descriptions of the people seem like straight up MAGA not "undecided".
Kamala can't reach someone who has 13 siblings living together talking about "the man" as top of household and thinks Trump is an example of a "devout christian" That is just a straight up hypocritical evangelical we have seen following trump making up core MAGA the whole time.
The huge difference in women voters preferring Kamala to Trump and the current trump strategy and GOP of just straight up alienating women more and more by taking the most extreme points you possibly could doesn't make sense. Ok you think you got all these white men. But, to actively repel women by the "cat lady" comments, and the extreme abortion stances, the extreme racial lies and pet eating nuttery. Hanging out with extreme nutjobs like Laura Loomer. If they just even pretended to not go to those extremes they could do better with women and minorities. Its like they just don't care to expand.
And maybe they don't need too I guess for now its still a close race and he could still win.
Lichtman forecast for 2024
"Harris will win," Lichtman confidently announced to AFP.
Have you guys seen this? It's quite amazing that he's been right in all but one - and that one was quite controversial. Not to say that won't happen again though.
"Harris will win," Lichtman confidently announced to AFP.
Have you guys seen this? It's quite amazing that he's been right in all but one - and that one was quite controversial. Not to say that won't happen again though.
Oh no mate. We still dig up Lizzie and hold a seance to get her opinion. Properly weird place is this.
Lichtman forecast for 2024
"Harris will win," Lichtman confidently announced to AFP.
Have you guys seen this? It's quite amazing that he's been right in all but one - and that one was quite controversial. Not to say that won't happen again though.
At this stage, i do believe Harris wins, but it has nothing to do with Lichtman, guy said it was a mistake to replace Biden even after the disastrous debate, Pelosi probably saved him from an embarassing prediction.
Some of his "key'" are highly subjective, so can be altered to how you want it to be, and most elections aren't that difficult to call.
I thought these numbers from yesterdays NBC poll were quite amazing....
From the same poll with Biden Vs now with Harris.
Trump down....
14 points on the border
13 points on the economy
9 points on serving as commander in chief
23 points on competency and effectiveness
and a 49 point swing in having the mental and physical health to be President.
From the same poll with Biden Vs now with Harris.
Trump down....
14 points on the border
13 points on the economy
9 points on serving as commander in chief
23 points on competency and effectiveness
and a 49 point swing in having the mental and physical health to be President.
and yet these pages are full of poll results....
I think you are right, but there are a lot of people that will have been holding their nose and voting for Trump, who are now hearing from Harris and liking her.
She has jumped massively in her favorability numbers....
https://fortune.com/2024/09/22/kamala-harris-favorability-polling-biggest-george-w-bush-9-11/
All be it, i do think a lot of the bump in the favorability numbers will be down to the fact she was getting dragged down by Bidens low approval, plus her profile was low at VP. And many that will be contributing to these numbers will be Dems who would have voted for Biden and anyone but Trump.
Here are Harris' negatives. Unlike Biden, she is young and can finish sentences. So what is her excuse for these numbers ? The simplest answer is she is unpopular and doesn't connect with voters. Therefore it would be a fool's errand to suddenly dump Biden and go with her, expecting a different result.
Same opinion two months later now Harris has broken into positive numbers?
I thought these numbers from yesterdays NBC poll were quite amazing....
From the same poll with Biden Vs now with Harris.
Trump down....
14 points on the border
13 points on the economy
9 points on serving as commander in chief
23 points on competency and effectiveness
and a 49 point swing in having the mental and physical health to be President.
If those are the answers, they’re asking Fcuking idiots. Like, proper double digit IQ mentally stunted idiots.
It kind of feels ok that we in the Uk have about 13 million of them. They’ve got 70+ million of them. That’s so many stupid people.
Yes, I disagree with my opinion of two months ago. Harris has proven she is not the candidate of 5 years ago and could definitely win. That's not to say she will and that there aren't better candidates the Dems could've replaced Biden with, but she has shown she has evolved a new level to her political game. The question is whether it will be enough to do any better than Biden would have.
Same from what I've seen so far
Thanks; seems like it was never really in play this time.GA is very much a purple state, so Trump will always have the advantage there. Trump has come out ahead in the past 8 GA polls, so at this point, it would be a big surprise if Harris wins the state.
This is what GA polls have looked like in the month of September.
Biden won Georgia. Biden, an elderly white gentlemen who was a total creature of the establishment. It's counterintuitive to think that the black voters who came out for Biden would not come out for Harris, as well as the young and female voters.
I mean, Georgia is probably the hardest out of the swing states to win for Harris, its typically more right-leaning than the others.
Its not so counterintuitive when you consider Biden got record turnout to evict from Trump from office in the middle of the pandemic. In 2022, the Dems were getting reminded about why Hershel Walker shouldn't be in office over Warnock, which helped in the end, but didn't generate anything close to POTUS level turnout. Also, Stacey Abrams got great turnout when she ran against Kemp in 2018, but got over 100k less votes when she tried again in 22, so there is no rational linear voting pattern when it comes to GA.
I agree. On paper, she may not be the best candidate given that the knock on her is still that 2019 Dem Primary and being seen as ineffective as VP in an unpopular administration.
The difference, as I see it, between 2019 and now, is that then, she had to run away from her strength and her experience, which is being a former DA and Prosecutor. As well as matching many policy positions from Bernie and Warren on her left. Even so, I do think she is still conflicted as her policies have changed, but her principles, as she put it, have not. I do think she will move further left when in office, even though she may not have the Senate to help her agenda. She will probably have very unproductive four years. How she deals with the Middle East may be her defining role.
Once it seemed that Biden was going to drop out, I thought at the time having a contested convention may have been the better way, but that could have caused a divide in the party and the winner, had it not been Harris, would not have been able to take the Biden campaign money.
She is pretty much 50/50 to win. But i think we can agree that Biden had next to no chance before the debate and even less chance after.
And wasn't trolling by bringing up an old post. It just came to mind when thinking about her recent approval rating and how she had turned it around.
Hershel Walker was in the 2022 midterms.
Warnock beat Loeffler in 2020 in a special election because Isakson resigned for health reasons.
Warnock not being on the ticket this year is bad news for Dems. Hopefully he can get his people out for Harris.
Great news. This would have been absolutely disgusting to see 45 days out.
Cant wait to see Trump on Truth Socal complaining about this.
Yes, that was my point. The 2020 ticket benefited from Biden being viable, the pandemic and several other factors that no longer exist.
I like what he said...
“Elections should be an opportunity for all voters to be heard, no matter who they are, where they live, or what party they support,”
Maybe it is time for all states to adopt a similar model to Nebraska and Maine - but without partisan gerrymandered districts being drawn.
Far too many people, on both sides, feel disenfranchised in the Presidential election because they happen to live in a state where the results are already predetermined. You are pretty much in that situation today if you live in 43 of 50 States.
It's not quite as simple as that, the GOP state legislature have enacted inew voting laws that are designed to discourage the very voters you describe above, and in some case will likely succeed as well, particularly if polling day is a warm day, which even in GA in November is not uncommmon, for example, it's illegal now to give a bottle of water to someone waiting in line to vote
You mean Biden being compos mentis?
Always be thankful for Herschel Walker and the multiple abortions he paid for, for keeping the Senate in Democrat hands.
It makes me think, why they hell have the GOP not dumped Trump already? Herschel Walker, Dr Oz, Blake Masters, Kari Lake and now Mark Robinson.
Had the GOP had the guts to drop Trump post Jan 6 and been able to select "normal Republicans", they would have been in control of the Senate, the House and surely been on their way to winning the Presidency in 2024.
Melania Trump was paid for a rare appearance at a political event. It’s not clear who cut the unusual six-figure check
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/23/politics/melania-trump-speaking-engagements/index.html
This could prove decisive if Harris wins the Rust Belt and Trump the Sun Belt, which is not that unthinkable. Then the 2nd district would decide the winner.
For additional context, it was Clinton +13.4 in 2016, Biden by 19, Kelly by 26 and Hobbs by 20, and trending left.
The numbers from AZ in this poll didn’t make sense. This tweet confirms that.
It makes sense in 1 possible scenario, which is high turnout specifically for GOP (their sample is R+3). Is it likely right now, given the general vibes/enthusiasm between the two parties? I think not, but we don’t know for sure.
Throw it in the average and move on, the final margin will be within a point either way, most likely. Good pollsters will occasionally produce outliers, it’s a good thing.
Protect James Carville at all costs....
Sky News Australia are just as big a lying bag of shit as the US/UK version.
https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/...sement/video/5709ff93c1fe02ac0c49122bf40adede
https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/...sement/video/5709ff93c1fe02ac0c49122bf40adede
"So, I'm a 20 year old female fan of Taylor Swift, and because she's endorsed Kamala Harris, I'm no longer going to like her. Even though she was pro-Biden last time round which was fine for me"
Yeah I cannot imagine anyone going through that mental gymnastic.