Assuming it isn't just totally made up they would have just asked loaded questions until one numty gave them an answer they could use.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
So, who looks likely to win?
Neither. Its a complete coin toss.
https://napolitaninstitute.org/2024/09/23/montana-trump-59-harris-38/
Tester is pretty much doomed then, i'm guessing.
Time for dems to focus on holding Ohio, and go on offense in Texas.
Tester is pretty much doomed then, i'm guessing.
Time for dems to focus on holding Ohio, and go on offense in Texas.
There haven't been many MT Senate polls, but the last ones had him down about about 4-5.
Youtube keeps wanting me to watch their stuff, and their headlines and content seem much more openly right-wing than the few sky news UK videos i've seen.
They don't even bother to pretend to be journalists.
Polls have been consistent in Michigan at least. Most have had Harris up for weeks now.
Oof.
I can't fecking believe Kamala Harris is the best the Democrats can put up for president, and Trump is the best the Republicans can dish up too.
Neither are the best for their respective parties, but they both had enough clout in their respective party apparatuses to make sure they are the candidate. In Trump’s case, he rules the Republican Party with an iron grip. In Harris’ case, she quickly moved to secure delegates on a zoom call the day after Biden dropped out, which prevented any potential challengers from participating.
This is the problem with politics.
Not her fault Biden dropped out too late to have a better selection process.
It’s really daft at this point to talk about Harris being a bad candidate. Is she the best the party could have offered? Maybe not. But she’s proven to be a more than decent candidate and hasn’t put many feet wrong.
Last edited:
She doesn't need an endorsement from him, he represents a state that she has zero chance of winning
That is one of the takes of all time.
How many companies, charities, or institutions are ever run by their best staff member? It does happen but it's not the norm. She seems ok to me, albeit not super inspiring. Could all be a lot worse.
An innocent man is going to be executed shortly in Missouri. Not a single word from Biden or Harris on what will be the biggest miscarriage of justice in recent times. Even the progressives like Sanders & AOC could not be bothered to speak up about this.
Its becoming increasingly clear that dems path to senate majority doesn't go through Montana, but through Texas(i guess Floirda..).
The same governor almost certainly pontificates about being pro life whilst trying to deny women the right over what happens to their own bodies.
There are no good republicans.
Reuters/Ipsos pretty reputable, no?
I don't think we can read much from this, the numbers were higher for dems in 2020, but that was also a very "special" year due to covid, also, republicans aren't demonizing mail-ballots much these days anymore.
If these are good or bad numbers for dems is anyone's guess, but at least these are hard numbers, so its good to see them.
NYT isn't the only high rated pollster that find a dead-even national race, but Harris up in the rust-belt somehow(Quinnipiac released numbers a few days ago that Harris up 6% in PA, 5% in Michigan, 1% in Wisconsin).
To me, it sounds crazy that this is a possibility, but thats their findings, i suppose, i can't possibly imagine Trump getting that vote-share of 18-29 year olds though, but whatever.
Turns out Harris is underperforming Biden 2020 on both blacks and hispanics in aggregate national polling.
,
It’s 2022 number basically , partisan breakdown also tracks. There were 2.6m returned mail ballots in 2020, it’s kinda pointless to read much into it due to circulstances, pandemic and all.
Nevada is about the only state where early vote is indicative of eventual result, due to how big Clark is. And this cycle even that might be doubtful due to growing registration edge between R/NPA.
It’s 2022 number basically , partisan breakdown also tracks. There were 2.6m returned mail ballots in 2020, it’s kinda pointless to read much into it due to circulstances, pandemic and all.
Nevada is about the only state where early vote is indicative of eventual result, due to how big Clark is. And this cycle even that might be doubtful due to growing registration edge between R/NPA.
The reality will hit on election night.
Which way?
Harris’s way.
Allow me please to elaborate a bit more: one tricky way of looking at the net gap is the “double counting,” for the lack of a better term. If D loses 1%, R gains 1%, the gap drops by 2%.
In 2020, Biden won the black vote 87-12, or +75.
Now, let’s take the numbers that Harry Enten showed. Harris is up 66 with black voters. Assume now that it’s basically a two way race, for simplicity. Then:
D-R= 66
D+R= 100
Then, D=83.
And so, the projected gain of Trump is 4% relative to the baseline of Election Day in 2020. That’s not nothing, but it’s not as enormous as it appeared in the video of Enten. Besides, the idea that Trump is gaining votes among black voters was floated 4 years ago too, but it didn’t materialize in a significant way. You expect the GOP to win close to 10%. He got a bit more.
Now, in a close election, every vote counts. Which brings me to this:
1. Gaining 1% among white voters more than offsets 1% among loss black voters
2. Is there loss of votes among black voters in swing states or nationally? I don’t know at this stage. This is crucial too.
My prediction is that Harris will end up with about 85% of black voters nationally and about 63% of Latino voters nationally.
EDIT: my main point is that Harris will do pretty much as well as Biden did four years ago among these voters. The question is about white voters, in suburban areas and rural areas.
Last edited:
Yeah, that makes sense, of course, if we go strictly by from R to D, or D to R, 1% to the other means a two percentage swing overall, unless some just stay home, of course.
Good point. These analyses apply more to Likely Voters. And unless something massive happens until November, most movement would be between the two candidates.
One more point: Enten compared Harris now (+66) to Biden “at this stage in 2020” (+80). However, the better baseline is +75. After all, Biden won the presidency with +75, including winning GA. He didn’t need +80 nationally.
Replace swift with ronaldo, Harris with madrid and biden with United
Dems dropped getting rid of the death penalty from their platform this year.
Progressives politicians are now in classic style tweeting after the man was killed. Completely useless bunch.
Last edited:
“Fifty-one percent of voters say they'll vote early, either by mail or in person, with Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump 61%-35% (a 26-point margin) among those voters.
By comparison, Trump leads by 20 points, 57%-37%, with the group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, which accounts for 45% of the electorate in the poll. It's a smaller lead among a slightly smaller share of the electorate than Harris has over those early voters. “
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna172253
By comparison, Trump leads by 20 points, 57%-37%, with the group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, which accounts for 45% of the electorate in the poll. It's a smaller lead among a slightly smaller share of the electorate than Harris has over those early voters. “
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna172253