2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

[VorZakone]

 

[VorZakone]

https://apnews.com/article/bidendebatetrumpdnc-aa08cc2b556b315e728d1e9c2bf81be9

 

[VorZakone]

 

[Pexbo]

Why are Democrats so fecking bad at politics?

Trump is going to be president again and it’s going to be an absolute disaster globally.

 

[ManUtd1999]

Why are Democrats so fecking bad at politics?

Trump is going to be president again and it’s going to be an absolute disaster globally.

The reality is that Democrats could’ve run someone else, and Trump would still have a good chance of winning the presidency. Every nominee of a major party starts with 47% or so of the vote irrespective of the opponent, fundraising, debates, etc. Adds to that the Electoral College that gives an advantage to the GOP, and you get a situation where the Republican nominee can always win no matter how many deficiencies he has.

And so while the Democrats can do better, the voters have the final say. Too many Americans are okay with this, and no Democrat candidate can sway them. As long as this is the reality, expect people like Trump to have a chance at winning.

One more point: Democrats won 5 of the 8 most recent elections, and two of their losses were by tiny margins (2000 and 2016). In 2022 they defied the odds in the midterm elections. And so, they’re not that bad.

 

[oneniltothearsenal]

Do you think Michelle Obama would accept the nomination if Biden agrees to stand down?

Zero. Absolutely no chance. It's frankly insane to even suggest this. She has repeatedly said she has no interest in politics and has no experience. No idea why anyone would even bring this up except for total ignorance.

feels like she is the only candidate that could potentially beat Trump

There is no evidence for this. Just like there is no evidence that Putin would not have invaded if Trump was President.

 

[Revan]

The reality is that Democrats could’ve run someone else, and Trump would still have a good chance of winning the presidency. Every nominee of a major party starts with 47% or so of the vote irrespective of the opponent, fundraising, debates, etc. Adds to that the Electoral College that gives an advantage to the GOP, and you get a situation where the Republican nominee can always win no matter how many deficiencies he has.

And so while the Democrats can do better, the voters have the final say. Too many Americans are okay with this, and no Democrat candidate can sway them. As long as this is the reality, expect people like Trump to have a chance at winning.

One more point: Democrats won 5 of the 8 most recent elections, and two of their losses were by tiny margins (2000 and 2016). In 2022 they defied the odds in the midterm elections. And so, they’re not that bad.

A good candidate and a bad candidate means a lot of difference though. Around one third of American voters are not hard-core Democrats or Republicans, so that’s where having a good candidate matters. GOP put forward a flawed candidate that is very beatable. Dems said hold my beer and put forward a demented one. I also find hilarious how the Dems say the democracy is at stake here if Trump wins, while at the same time advocating to vote for a puppet with dementia. Yes sure, Biden is gonna be in charge.

Dems lost the midterm election despite that they put it out as a win. They did better than in the polls, but at the end of the day, they won fewer votes than GOP, they lost the House and they lost the House popular vote. It looks that they will lose again and this was perfectly preventable. All they needed to do was convince Jill Biden to stand down, do a fair primary, and choose someone who resembles more of a human being rather than a zombie.

 

[Pexbo]

The reality is that Democrats could’ve run someone else, and Trump would still have a good chance of winning the presidency. Every nominee of a major party starts with 47% or so of the vote irrespective of the opponent, fundraising, debates, etc. Adds to that the Electoral College that gives an advantage to the GOP, and you get a situation where the Republican nominee can always win no matter how many deficiencies he has.

And so while the Democrats can do better, the voters have the final say. Too many Americans are okay with this, and no Democrat candidate can sway them. As long as this is the reality, expect people like Trump to have a chance at winning.

One more point: Democrats won 5 of the 8 most recent elections, and two of their losses were by tiny margins (2000 and 2016). In 2022 they defied the odds in the midterm elections. And so, they’re not that bad.

But the point is that they have the public majority and they still haven’t decided to use it. Republicans use every trick in the book and Democrats pretend they like to be honest and play fair but the reality is that Elections are cash cows and the last thing they want is to be the default party because the default party will struggle to extract donations.

Flip the picture and I guarantee you that Republicans would be going hell for leather to get Washington DC and Puerto Rico registered as States and if they did there would be +4 senators and the senate would no longer swing on a knife edge.

 

[Sweet Square]

 

[Kinsella]

And those people don’t see how those two things don’t make sense when viewed together?

Do you see how those things don’t make sense when viewed together?

Of course I can.

Based on what? On the belief that Trump would have refused to help Ukraine? So Ukraine would be even weaker than they actually were when the real invasion happened? Say that out loud & tell me how it sounds, then tell me again why we shouldn’t question anyone who says it with a straight face.

Based on notion that Trump carries a much greater deterrent effect I suppose.

I should point out here that implicit in what you're saying is the inevitability of the Russian invasion.

 

[Pexbo]

I mean this is the sort of poll where it doesn’t matter if there is a majority. When 45% think he should step down that should be a big enough wedge. Thats nearly half of his potential voters saying they don’t thing he should be running. Mental.

 

[GDaly95]

I mean this is the sort of poll where it doesn’t matter if there is a majority. When 45% think he should step down that should be a big enough wedge. Thats nearly half of his potential voters saying they don’t thing he should be running. Mental.

And then how do you gauge how strongly that 55% would feel if the Dems did go with someone else?

They are so fecked. I really think its as good as done for them.

 

[Sky1981]

Biden debate catastrophe is not a freak accident. He is what he is even 4 years ago albeit slightly better.

He has been deteriorating rapidly and the democrats that sees and talks to him everyday knew this. This is not some sort of secret condition, his senility is for the whole world to see. Yet they pushed on taking dems voters like a bunch of morons who will vote for a corpse at all cost simply because the other party is Donald Trump.

And i dont even think Biden is at functional level to assess his own condition let alone reading daily briefing or even making executives decision. I dont even think he read what he signs when he cant even read a fecking teleprompter correctly. Biden wasnt a prominent figure that holds the card, the man can barely eat his salad. There's no way he has any sway on the party decision.

If Trump wins this is on the Democrats. My bet is that the Dems are using him to push their own micro agenda at the sake of the nation. It's not even about winning the election, they could have put any 45 years Democrats, you name it and he'll have bigger chance of winning.

 

[4bars]

I actually believe that until recently, Biden (and those close to him) believed he was the best positioned candidate to beat Trump and that he was in fact sacrificing his senior years and four of his final years with his family by not dropping out.

Sacrificing? They love power. They love it so much that they cling on it. Lets be clear. They are bad people controled by bad people and they will do whatever it takes to remain in power and repay the favours that they got and they wkll to achieve this position of power

Sacrificing for others is not in their ethos

 

[oneniltothearsenal]

California has still a very strong economy and lots of cities there are industrial hubs (San Francisco and San Jose for IT industry, LA for music and movies). But the fentanyl and homeless crisis have skyrocketed under Newsom. Most people I know who live in SF absolutely hate SF nowadays and that was the nicest city in the US. Not surprisingly, despite having such a strong economy, California has been losing population over the last three years while states like Texas have been increasing their population over 1% yearly.

So, I do not understand Newsom appeal and how will he win this election. Sure, he is better than the demented Biden, but except his look, there isn’t much that he brings to the table.

I think that the election is already lost, but if they have to make such a late move, it probably should be Whitmer.

How exactly is Newsom responsible for macro trends that exist around the country (homelessness) or even world (fentanyl)?

Whitmer might be a better late switch because Michigan, but Newsom is the most articulate Democrat since Obama, and has demolished these right wing talking points for a long time now like in his debate with Desantis.

 

[Sweet Square]

I mean this is the sort of poll where it doesn’t matter if there is a majority. When 45% think he should step down that should be a big enough wedge. Thats nearly half of his potential voters saying they don’t thing he should be running. Mental.

Yeah it’s a insane position to be in. A big issue will also be polling. It’s all over the place and it isn’t clear how well others would do against Trump

 

[VorZakone]

 

[Fergies Gum]

Interesting that nothing was included about his wife in that article. She is the one who will ultimately have the final say and we just have to hope she comes to a realisation that the game is up.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

California has still a very strong economy and lots of cities there are industrial hubs (San Francisco and San Jose for IT industry, LA for music and movies). But the fentanyl and homeless crisis have skyrocketed under Newsom. Most people I know who live in SF absolutely hate SF nowadays and that was the nicest city in the US. Not surprisingly, despite having such a strong economy, California has been losing population over the last three years while states like Texas have been increasing their population over 1% yearly.

So, I do not understand Newsom appeal and how will he win this election. Sure, he is better than the demented Biden, but except his look, there isn’t much that he brings to the table.

I think that the election is already lost, but if they have to make such a late move, it probably should be Whitmer.

SF has been a shit hole for a long time, no?
I don't think it's recent at all.
I was there in 2009 I think and it already had a lot of issues.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

Every update on this is such a travesty.

 

[gfactor86]

Democrats have slept walked into this. They have given Trump the White House.

 

[Kinsella]

Democrats have slept walked into this. They have given Trump the White House.

Your views are irrelevant, you voted Liberal Democrat 14 years ago.

 

[dumbo]

I loved this one, just the fecking best:

Look, there’s so many young women who have been – including a young woman who just was murdered and he – he went to the funeral. The idea that she was murdered by a – by – by an immigrant coming in, and they talk about that. But here’s the deal, there’s a lot of young women who are being raped by their – by their in-laws, by their – by their spouses, brothers and sisters, by – just – it’s just – it’s just ridiculous. And they can do nothing about it. And they tried to arrest them when they cross state lines.
-Biden

Biden's big policy he has over Trump and he basically explained it as: we need to stop immigrants raping our women - which is actually Trump's big policy. So cool.

 

[SirAF]

Your views are irrelevant.

Fixed that for you.

 

[altodevil]

Yeah it’s a insane position to be in. A big issue will also be polling. It’s all over the place and it isn’t clear how well others would do against Trump

How does booker keep getting his name involved with everything. Total non entity.

 

[Kinsella]

Fixed that for you.

Siuuuuu!!!

 

[Revan]

I loved this one, just the fecking best:



Biden's big policy he has over Trump and he basically explained it as: we need to stop immigrants raping our women - which is actually Trump's big policy. So cool.

Yep, he converted his open-penalty to giving Trump an open-penalty. Should have been disqualifiable by itself.

 

[Revan]

How does booker keep getting his name involved with everything. Total non entity.

He could be ok for a VP position, if Dems go for a white candidate as P (e.g., Whitmer).

I do not think he is that great, but he is likeable.

----

I think that Dems are that stupid that they will refuse to replace Biden. Then on his second debate, he'll have an even worse debate, and then they will replace him with ... Kamala. Who will then do even worse in the election, and Trump would then sweep all the swing states.

 

[Adisa]

It's all depressing. I've given up hope. The rest of the world should do what's good for them.

 

[Fergies Gum]

Right so what happens when Biden inevitably faints/collapses in public prior to the election? Everyone deep down knows that moment is coming.

 

[Mike Smalling]

Right so what happens when Biden inevitably faints/collapses in public prior to the election? Everyone deep down knows that moment is coming.

Why is that so inevitable all of a sudden? Old people don't normally faint or collapse out of nowhere without other medical problems. It's more likely that he simply falls, but he has done that before and the world still stands.

 

[Morty_]

Biden campaign is flailing aimlessly around, hoping for something to come their way.

I guess they are just betting on Trump actually being put in jail, and for Biden to somehow to regain the ability to speak coherently again etc.

 

[Revan]

Biden campaign is flailing aimlessly around, hoping for something to come their way.

I guess they are just betting on Trump actually being put in jail, and for Biden to somehow to regain the ability to speak coherently again etc.

It should not change anything, he would still be in the voting, and still win. He can govern from the prison, although I expect the supreme court will rule that the president cannot be in prison.

I actually expect Biden to give him a presidential pardon (providing he gets jailed) between the election and the start of the new presidency, to avoid a constitutional crisis.

 

[Morty_]

It should not change anything, he would still be in the voting, and still win. He can govern from the prison, although I expect the supreme court will rule that the president cannot be in prison.

I actually expect Biden to give him a presidential pardon (providing he gets jailed) between the election and the start of the new presidency, to avoid a constitutional crisis.

Biden has been clear on not pardoning Trump.

So, constitutional crisis is a very likely outcome now, with Biden's campaign tanking.

 

[berbatrick]

Heritage Foundation working on election legal challenges in case Biden pulled from DNC nomination

At least three swing states — Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin — could restrict Biden's removal from the ballot

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/he...llenges-case-biden-pulled-from-dnc-nomination

From memory, this challenge shouldn't succeed because the Democrat party has no obligation to run fair or open primaries. The article just ssays the name cannot be withdrawn - but the convention hasn't happened yet, so the name can't be there yet, surely?

 

[oneniltothearsenal]

Biden campaign is flailing aimlessly around, hoping for something to come their way.

I guess they are just betting on Trump actually being put in jail, and for Biden to somehow to regain the ability to speak coherently again etc.

That's not it because Trump's serious court cases have all been pushed back to after the election. There is almost no chance he'll get jail for the case he just got convicted.

 

[Morty_]

That's not it because Trump's serious court cases have all been pushed back to after the election. There is almost no chance he'll get jail for the case he just got convicted.

I believe there is one more coming up before election, though getting jail-time i don't see happening either.

 

[oneniltothearsenal]

I believe there is one more coming up before election, though getting jail-time i don't see happening either.

I doubt there would be another before the election because that would require several things happening including the SC ruling against Trump which almost certainly wouldn't happen.

I don't think the Dems are banking on anything. The inner circle of decision makers are living in an insulated bubble much like Hilary in 2016 and they are just delusional and detached from the general public.

Ultimately the Democrats really need a disruption to their establishment the way Trump disrupted the GOP establishment. If the establishment way of operating isn't disrupted soon the Dems are just going to continue to be ineffective and more and more detached from reality, ruled as they are by sheer greed and power hungriness. So much damage already from Ginsburg, Feinstein, and now Biden refusing to step down when they should.

 

[Avatar]

I don't know what the Democrats are doing. This election is easily Trump's to lose, unless he gets convicted and sent to prison or something!

Biden never wins anything "actively" . He only wins passively; because of candidates yielding to Obama/the party's pressure and dropping out, or for being Not Trump.
It won't work this year, however. At best it's 50/50 , a risk that is totally unacceptable.

Nothing changed. oh wait, it actually got worse.

Biden is never winning this election. It was clear since last year; now it's indisputable Imo. It will be an easy crushing defeat, Trump will sweep all the swing states. All of them. Best case scenario Biden nicks one or two max. Trump always outperform his poll numbers, imagine when he is already leading everywhere!

Yeah it’s a insane position to be in. A big issue will also be polling. It’s all over the place and it isn’t clear how well others would do against Trump

Imagine not running a campaign and already doing as good as Biden!

 

[calodo2003]